Newspoll: 55-45

The latest Newspoll survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45, with Malcolm Turnbull enjoying a dead cat bounce on his personal ratings after the disaster of a fortnight ago. Turnbull’s approval rating is up six points to 31 per cent, while his disapproval is down three to 55 per cent. However, Turnbull continues to rate behind Peter Costello (36 per cent) and Joe Hockey (20 per cent) on the question of best person to lead the Liberal Party, with 16 per cent. What’s more, Essential Research finds 46 per cent believe the Liberals should find a new leader against only 29 per cent who want Turnbull remain. Essential Research otherwise shows a modest improvement for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on the “most important action” of the Rudd government so far (action on the global financial crisis leads a crowded field), opinions on the government’s income tax cuts (positive) and a somewhat obscure question on education policy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

763 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. [Test] Cricket is like ….. (Old Thread)

    Clanking across the bridge’ wooden planks, swishing a gladius, assessing the Tuscan horde as you take your mark, your acute ear hearing axes hitting wooden bridge piles …

    Picking up your pack in the cold evening rain to follow General Lord Arthur I am masterly in retreat Wellesley as he secretly shifts his army to a place and time that he and they will decide is best for the battle and their revere slope defence tactic (instead of being caught in it themselves in the position they’re quitting) quietly humming Le Grande Armès’s anthem, knowing that, when the French spies “go over the mountain to see what they can see” they’ll find “the other side of the mountain is all that they can see.” …. If there’s one thing Old Duro learned during his hated years at Eton, it was that the Fabian Strategy might cost you the battle, but it wins you the war. Kids still sing those words to that same French anthem (enjoy Beethoven’s “Wellington’s Victory Overture” ….

    Standing in squares in fields near the village of Waterloo, squinting at Ney’s magnificent cavalry as lances fall into spearing position, knowing you and Old Duro can beat them too, if only you keep your nerve and hold the square …

    Flying Spits & Hurricanes over London …

    Being in London buses & tubes on 7 July 2005 … We greet initial reports of “panic in London” with total scorn. If anyone was panciking it wouldn’t be a Pom …

    Praying for rain, and using every possible delaying tactic in Cardiff …

    [Legally] bowling underarm to the Kiwis …

    And copping it on the chin, Punter, even if you’re bleeding inside!

    That’s what [Test] Cricket is …

  2. Newspoll pretty much “steady as she goes”. TheOz’s coverage proves how hypocritical i is for any of their hacks to accuse Rudd of spin.

    BTW: Waaaaaaa, Bludger! This is the 3rd new thread in a row that’s been posted while I’m composing!

  3. Interesting that only 29% want Turnbull to remain as leader, while 31% support the job he is doing. I guess those 31% really are the rusted-on Liberal supporters. When you consider that, the 16% preference for Turnbull vs Costello or Hockey shows that at best half of the rusted on Liberals actually like Turnbull. And even that assumes nobody else outside the Liberals likes him. He is a dead parrott.

  4. Will MT’s green shoots of recovery turn out to be onion weed to be killed off by the “Roundup” of the AFP’s report on the OZcar fake email due at the end of the month?

  5. Dennis up to his old tricks again:

    […and Liberals are beginning to say they cannot win the next election. ]

    Heh.

  6. Al Gore has come out in support of pasing the governments CPRS, saying that passing it before Copenhagen is “important” even while acknowledging its flaws.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/13/2624681.htm

    I found Gore’s comments a pretty balanced view. He doesn’t pretend the CPRS is perfect, and was even honest enough to express (valid) skepticism about “clean coal” technology. Yet he still thinks it is important to pass the CPRS. The Greens should consider this, although with Liberals plus Fielding against it, it would be dead anyway.

    If this bill fails in the Senate now, I think it would be a legitimate DD trigger, as this was a core promise at the last election.

    I note Possum’s analysis showing that Labor was better off with a half rather than full senate election. What is the earliest date an election could be called that would be able to include a half Senate vote?

  8. People seem to forget that:

    * Mr. Hu is not a public servant. he is a private citizen employed by an MNC.
    * He is negotiating and cutting business deals for the benefits of an MNC.
    * He is not acting for Australian people, its Govt or its agencies.
    * He has been put up there on a pedestal as if he is acting directly for the national benefits of Australia and its interests. I am yet to see an MNC which has the national benefits of any country at heart. It’s purely in there for making money, profits, and lowest costs. It has NO loyalty or allegiance to any country or national interest.
    * When you do business overseas, you must do and understand what is called the Country Risk. And each country is different from another.
    * And country risk is evolving all the time, for example: For the Educational sector here in Australia, our Country Risk is student safety at the moment. That wasn’t on the radar before, but it is now.

    I am sick and tired of watching Mesma’s accusation that the Govt has been “pussy footing”. From what I heard, she wasn’t too bad at some “pussy and footing” herself. 😉 😉 😉

  10. Sorry Poss. Any knowledge of Senate rules and dates?

    Finns

    I agree. Wasn’t there a case of an Aussie businessman (James Peng) jailed in China for several years during the Howard years? I also recall similar incidents in India. So this isn’t a first and it probably won’t be a last time either.

  11. Bring on the Sunrise election!

    Turnbull looks like heading to a rout – Possum only has to be half right on his projections, and it is still terrible for the Libs.

    Sloppy Joe should time his ascendency for a coupla months before the election… just long enough to stave off complete disaster, and not long enough for the masses to work out what a complete git he is…

  12. Jennifer Hewitt takes the Milne Line:

    [What is increasingly evident is that rather than Rudd’s deep knowledge of China being a strength in Canberra’s dealings with China, the government’s approach has become ever more of an irritant in Beijing. ]

    If you can’t get Rudd for going to strip clubs, knowing Brian Burke, growing up in Eumundie, Long Tan, his fat wife, driving a crony ute, misleading Parliament, plunging us into debt, Fuelwatch, Grocery Watch, being a nerd, being too dinklum Aussie, being a nerd again, insulting hosties, upsetting his staff, religious hypocrisy, taking overseas junkets, betraying George Bush’s confidences, strutting the world Stage, pork-barreling, living in a coccoon of spin, speaking Mandarin, and being too friendly with China… then get him for being so close to China that it’s not only affecting Stern Hu’s freedom, but could well bring down the entire Australian economy.

    And he’s a toxic bore to boot.

    It’s a Scandals-R-Us, a new one every week. The people are out with their torches and pitchforks, lusting for the Monster’s blood. The Australian says so. Having forsaken attacking Rudd’s alleged weaknesses, the Ltd News gurus are attacking his strengths. He is a toxic bore who lamely tries to be Bazza McKenzie and then he speaks Wonk again. In international relations he betrays Presidential confidences, arrogantly struts where he should not be, is two-faced on climate Change and then takes it out on junior staff when they don’t have pickled tofu on the menu ready for him. If he doesn’t ruin the country with debt and deficit over a Global Financial Crisis that probably doesn’t exist, this man Rudd will single-handedly ruin the country’s chances of recovering from it with his arrogance and hostility to China which is different from when he was going to ruin us with his empathy and closeness to China.

    It’s a total mess. The best thing we should do is put Peter Costello in, or Joe Hockey, or Tony Abbott, or Julie Bishop, oh yes, and maybe Malcolm Turnbull, who would personally take the Big Stick to those Commie Asians and teach them a lesson or two about messing with White Men. Who needs their trade? We’ll always have Japan… except Rudd’s ruined that too by snubbing them… It’s hopeless.

    As Jennifer Hewitt puts it, “Lose, lose, lose.”

    Now there’s an insightful analysis for you.

    I just can’t figure out why the Liberals are starting to think they might not win the next election.

  15. Soc – as i have posted many many times previously. In Asia, ALL of Asia, it is a myth to think that there is a Rule of Law.

    The Asian system – social, cultural, economic and politically, operates very much on the Rule of Power. Still is, unfortunately.

    I am afraid the Western businessmen and women have been reading too many Lost Horizon type books with mythical the Shangri-La and stay in the Shangri-La Hotel chain.

    Btw: there was a case few years ago of a japanese national, a woman, who was very badly treated by our court system here and it was in Melbourne. maybe some PBs here can recall the case.

  18. Bob @ 7. Newspoll stats tend to come up to a day or so later.

    The Finns @ 8 & 15. Indeed! And China shoots those who commit what many of us would regard as quite minor crimes (inc some types of theft). In public squares. Even in sight of passing foreigners (inc me); not something one should (or can) forget.

  21. I love The Australian headline, “Turnbull starts to claw his way back”, and the fact that the 2PP figures are not even in the table on the front page.

  24. There will be plenty of fun over at Andrew Bolt:

    ‘Liberals lift – yet still gone…

    ‘Truth is that it’s actually a waste of time and credibility to try to make a news story about minor changes in the Newspoll figures – changes that fall even within the margin of error. Bottom line this week, as it is every week: the Liberals will get hammered, especially under Malcolm Turnbull. Nothing remotely likely will change that.’

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/liberals_lift_yet_still_gone_gone_gone/

    Stand by for the “I’ve never been rung by a pollster” and the “They rang me and didn’t want to talk to me because they wanted an 18-year old” responses.

  26. [I wonder what the sample size is? Seems to be at odds with today’s Newspoll.]

    Hardly. Who will lead the Liberals to the next election, and who people prefer to lead the Liberals to the next election are two different things. It’s like asking who voters expect to win the next election – as opposed to which party they want to win the next election.

  27. From the previous thread:

    [since I think the Indians have preserved at least some of the traditional ethos of cricket.]

    Hmmmm, another Shangri-La view of the world. The sectarianism & division, in the Indian cricket team, in terms of social, religious and geography (State), would make the Israelis and Palestinians look like buddy buddy.

  28. Chris

    I can’t work out what Bolt is getting at with those posts of his about Turnbull being gone. The fact that it’s true has never been a criterion for him before. Hockey seems to be the only alternative given that Cossie is out and there’s no way Hockey will step up before the next election so they’re stuck with Truffles until then.

    He’s just giving Rudd free kicks in front of goal unless he’s looking at the long game after the next election.

    Or maybe he’s desperately trying to get Cossie to reconsider. The Newspoll preferred Opp leader was terrible for Truffles. Cossie was 36%, Hockey 20%, Truffles 16% and Abbott 10%.

  33. “He points out that CCS will struggle to overcome Boyle’s Law and end up losing to the Second Law of Entropy.”

    Wonderfully put, I liked the getup ad that presented clean coal as someone with a rag giving it a good dusting, that is about as good as it is going to get.

  34. [Shows @ 647. Indian cricket has it’s problems,]
    Yes, because it refuses to comply with any ICC rulings, which is anything but honouring the traditions and spirit of the game.

  35. [Yes, because it refuses to comply with any ICC rulings, which is anything but honouring the traditions and spirit of the game.]
    What traditions

    beside a superior “white” attitude even in the sporting arena??
    what other “traditions” are you talking about????

  37. A commenter at Bolt’s Blog writes:

    [While Turnball may struggling to get clear air he is the only choice the Liberals have got. A week is a long time in politics, as Rudd is finding out now with the Chinese.]

    Once again, the forlorn hope that a single week with a couple of “we demand”s, a cacophony of OO opinionation pieces, the odd assertion that the Australia-China relationship is “in tatters”, “dead in the water”, “ruined because Rudd speaks Mandarin” etc. will turn it all around for the Libs, this coming week.

    This lot remind me of a certain crowd who ruled Germany from 1933-1945, putting delusional faith in secret weapons, divisions that didn’t exist and the manifest destiny of the Party to overcome all seemingly impossible odds at the last possible moment. They thought it was all going to be turned around at the gates of Berlin. The Libs think a few soundbites consisting mainly of braying at the moon will seal Rudd’s fate forever.

    They still haven’t gotten over the fact that silver bullets don’t work. All their scandals have hardly (if at all) dented the Labor government’s popularity with the voters. They really do need to be taught a very harsh lesson and it’s coming.

  39. Dio 17

    Thanks; I have been a skeptic about “Clean Coal” for quite a while. It would be more accurately called “slightly less filthy but now ludicrously expensive coal” technology. We still don’t know if it works in the long term. NO successful large scale pilot project is in existence after talk about it for almost ten years. Even IF it works, the basic physics of it is that you will use up almost 30% of a coal power station’s energy running the carbon capture and geosequestration machinery. It is just an excuse to avoid for a few years telling brown coal miners their jobs should be eliminated for teh safety of the rest of us and they need to train for something else.

  41. Poss 14

    Thanks, so 7 August 2010 should be Fielding Dismissal Day. We could probably send Fielding to Texas and raise the average IQ of both states. He would be happy with the nutters there.

  42. Bob,

    Bronwyn is following instructions from John Howard. She is clearly one of those getting right behind Turnbull!

  43. Midday news says business confidence skyrocketting to near record highs! Well maybe not put quite as gung-ho as that (but almost 😉 )
    So is it any wonder the OO, ABC and their preferred government wants to keep the focus on anything but the economy?
    Weak Rudd wrecking China relations will do nicely for now with a bit of “overrun by refugee hysteria” bubbling along on the side burner as plan B.
    What’s happened to that debt ute by the way? lol Has Malcolm broke down on the Nullarbor?

  45. Diogenes (28),

    There are persons at the Andrew Bolt site who will still be imploring Peter Costello to come back and save the Libs when he is well and truly tucked up in the Afternoon Light Retirement Home.

    The record of the Liberals in Opposition throughout the country has been one of “Next Messiah, please”. They seem incapable of doing the work that is required to make them electable again.

    There is no reason for Mr Costello to reconsider. Why would he want to lead the Liberals to defeat in 2010 and 2013? He can count.

    OzPol Tragic (32),

    I think Andrew Bolt has been consistent on the theme of Peter Costello as the Liberal saviour, though he can read polls better than many of his regular posters.

    I haven’t posted anything at Possum. There is a limit to the time I wish to spend on the web. It’s all right for people who work and then have holidays. I don’t get holidays. I have to get every morning of every day and go to retirement. No breaks for me!

  46. Perhaps a few well meaning plants at that site could suggest they should bring back John Howard? That should helptheir electoral appeal…

  47. Socrates @ 6
    [If this bill fails in the Senate now, I think it would be a legitimate DD trigger, as this was a core promise at the last election.]

    No that is just not how s57 works.

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