Morgan: 58-42

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.

Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.

• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.

• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).

• Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.

• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

681 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  4. I reckon Newspoll will be in the 54-56 range as usual. But who knows, they, like the best of pollsters, can always have the odd “rogue”.

    58-42 would put a cat among the pidgeons. 😉

  5. The mouthpiece of CPC, the People’s Daily, is reporting that a new anti corruption regulation has just been released:

    [July 13, 2009 – CPC releases officials’ accountability regulation to curb corruption – China’s ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) made public a regulation on officials’ accountability Sunday, aiming to curb corruption and improve government competence. Officials with the following misconduct should be removed from their posts:

    — Making a wrong decision that leads to great losses or has serious negative impact]

    http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90785/6698633.html

    Previously, it has also reported a new drive to stamp out high level officials corrupt activities.

    [June 23, 2009 – War against corruption – This month alone, four more senior officials, all at the level of vice minister, have been declared to be under investigation for “serious violations”.

    Each time a high-ranking official was brought down on corruption charges, we saw the public enthralled, applauding the resolve of the authorities – that is, the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) – to push ahead with the fight against corruption. No wonder the applause sounds louder this time. Seeing four, including one in the National People’s Congress Standing Committee and an assistant minister of Public Security, fall in such a short time is indeed unusual.]

    http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/6683976.html

    The Hu affair could be the first test case and a continuation of this drive and for the CPC to send a clear and strong signal to the foreign business community not to take part in the corrupt activities.

  6. [I have been on holidays – in QLD, so what do you expect?

    Sunburn ?]

    Hardly! It bloody rained the whole time (well a lot of the time)

  7. I haven’t noticed Fairfax media (or newsltd for that matter) report on Essential polling in the past.
    [Labor, Turnbull take modest hit: pollJuly 13, 2009 – 5:34PM
    Federal Labor has taken a minor hit in a new opinion poll but so has Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.

    The weekly Essential Research online survey, released on Monday, shows 57 per cent of voters would back Labor in an election, down two points, while 43 per cent favour the opposition, up two points.

    Still, 46 per cent of the 1,060 respondents said the opposition should look for a new leader, while 29 per cent said Mr Turnbull should stay.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-turnbull-take-modest-hit-poll-20090713-dimk.html

  9. Labor on 57% TPP is a “modest hit” and “46 per cent of the 1,060 respondents said the opposition should look for a new leader, while 29 per cent said Mr Turnbull should stay” is a “modest hit”. Do they really know the meaning of the word “modest”?

  10. MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS
    ALEXANDER DOWNER
    FA 99
    8 September 1999

    Australia – China Consular Agreement

    [I am pleased to announce that I have today signed on Australia’s behalf the new Consular Agreement with the People’s Republic of China.]

    [Under the Agreement there are guarantees for notification of the arrest and detention of Australian citizens and timeframes established for access to them. If Chinese officials detain an Australian national, they must now notify relevant Australian consular officials of the arrest within three days and a consular visit to the detainee must be permitted within two days thereafter. Monthly consular visits are also guaranteed. Reasons must also be provided for the detention of an Australian national and the details of any charges. Consular representation at trials is also guaranteed. The Agreement also provides for annual consultations to review the consular relationship including any issue of concern to either party, as well as ad hoc consultation on difficult consular cases as required from time to time.]
    http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/releases/1999/fa099_99.html

  13. Jack the Insider has a say on the HU thing:
    [The Opposition has gone on the attack over the China spy case, calling on the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Foreign Minister Stephen Smith to personally intervene.

    The Rio Executive, Stern Hu, is in a desperate situation and his case should not be allowed to become a political football.

    Yet the Opposition shows no such constraint.

    Shadow foreign affairs spokesperson, Julie Bishop believes that the Chinese Government is in the business of embarrassing the Rudd Government and is using Mr Hu as a patsy.

    “While the Government procrastinates Mr Hu has no access to his family, his employer, any legal representation and we now learn that even consular officials will not visit him for another month. The actions of the Chinese government appear intent on humiliating the Rudd Government,” Ms Bishop said on Sunday.

    She may well be right but that’s no reason to come out and say it. Anyone with a passing interest in Chinese foreign policy will note that the Chinese Government never, ever takes a backward step and any attempt to coerce it is dispatched with contempt. ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/cries_of_do_something_a_bit_rich_in_china_spy_case/

  14. grog

    Where were you in Qld? I was in Port Douglas all last week and it was beautiful.

    I hope the Labor hacks here have a bloody good explanation for this twitter from Rudd today. 😉

    [Can’t believe Mozart didn’t get a guernsey in triple js hottest 100 of all time. KRudd]

    On a more serious note, look at the Hottest 100 ever posted below. There are only TWO female singers out of 100 (and they are both guest vocalists on Massive Attack songs).

    Are Australians sexist (musically at least)?

    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hottest100_alltime/countdown/cd_list.htm

  15. grog

    Where were you in Qld? I was in Port Douglas all last week and it was beautiful.

    I hope the Labor hacks here have a bloody good explanation for this twitter from Rudd today. 😉

    Can’t believe Mozart didn’t get a guernsey in triple js hottest 100 of all time.

    On a more serious note, look at the Hottest 100 ever posted below. There are only TWO female singers out of 100 (and they are both guest vocalists on Massive Attack songs).

    Are Australians sexist (musically at least)?

    http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hottest100_alltime/countdown/cd_list.htm

  16. By the way it’s all Howard’s fault that we didn’t win the cricket, bloody jinx, hope he stays away from the next test 👿

  17. You can bet your life that if Rudd had come out on day one and attacked the Chinese, then Turnbull and Bishop, and the pontificators at The Australian, would be criticising him for jeopardising the relationship with China and doing special favours for corporate mates, etc. Their political desperation had made them totally shameless in the irresponsible rubbish they talk.

    [I hope the Labor hacks here have a bloody good explanation for this twitter from Rudd today.]

    It’s a culture thing. You either have it or you don’t.

  21. Diogenes that has happened to me also, had to repost and put a space between K and Rudd.
    I like his previous post better than the Mozart one
    [Great to be home. Test draw painful! Got update mid flight. Family well. Dog happy. Cat grumpy. Situation normal. Now back to work. K Rudd]

  22. Psepfh #567

    Ponting is the last real link to the period of Australian greatness that produced gaints like Warne, Hayden, Glichrist, McGrath etc…

    I agree – Ponting should retire right now – mid tour – find an excuse, whatever, we needed a clean slate for the Ashes,

    Let the new generation find its own way and make its own statements

  24. First, it was a glorious draw and now:

    [The draw that will feel like defeat to Australia – BRING HOME THE ASHES IT’S AGONY FOR PONTING AS ENGLAND ESCAPE – Ricky Ponting made the brave face last for 10 minutes.

    It was no consolation to him that the heroic rearguard action of Paul Collingwood, Graeme Swann, Jimmy Anderson and Monty Panesar conjured a magnificent draw that England really didn’t deserve.

    No consolation either that this classic match ignited this Ashes series straight away and hinted at another summer of epic drama.

    It didn’t matter to Ponting that Australia outplayed England for four days out of five. It didn’t matter that four Aussies scored centuries in the same innings for the first time.

    It didn’t matter that they’d made the highest Australian total in an Ashes contest since 1934. Because as the sun shone on Sophia Gardens and the happy crowd made its way back into the city through Bute Park, it felt like England had won.

    It felt like England had defied a stereotype by not succumbing to another pathetic final-day collapse.]

    http://tinyurl.com/np3d7a

    So we were defeated, according to the UK Daily Terror. The “cheating”, according to Andrew Strauss, was just some “confusion”.

  25. [Ponting is the last real link to the period of Australian greatness that produced gaints like Warne, Hayden, Glichrist, McGrath etc…]

    Pfft. If we can’t win without Warne’s boorishness and McGrath’s sledging I’d rather lose.

  26. Interesting Comments from Clive Hamilton re Hu’s Arrest, in particular in regards to him being a Chinese National.

    [Clive Williams, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University in Canberra, says as far as the Chinese authorities are concerned, Mr Hu is a Chinese national.

    “Had he been an Australian who had been born in Australia then his situation would be different, he’d probably be expelled from the country, instead,” he said.

    “The big issue for the Chinese is the fact that he was born in China and he’s been engaged in activities against the state, so therefore they’ll deem that as an issue that should be punished.”

    The Government is sticking to its “step by step, methodical approach”.

    Clive Williams says the Chinese are sending a very clear message back.

    “Basically I think what they want to do is to send a message to other Chinese employees of foreign companies in China that there first loyalty is to China and not to the company that employs them,” he said.

    “Clearly they regard any bribery of officials to gain information, particularly at this sensitive time when their industries are under some pressure is simply not acceptable.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/13/2624726.htm

  27. No greater contrast in today’s media than Ponting’s moaning an’ bitching vs Weber unscrited joy and relief..

    Who said being the Australian PM was the second most important job in Australia (after being captain of the Australian test team)? – or have I got it around the wrong way

  31. # 579:

    By “adjust” you mean building new dams in Gippsland. Something that Labor is pathologically opposed to due to Green zealotry.

  32. It is disappointing to see that there is still a lack of understanding about China at even the most basic level. Last night SMH run the title of “Jintao” authorised invesitgation into the Hu affair, clearly not knowing that Jintao is actually the given name of the Chinese president. Then we have several people claiming Stern Hu having dual citizenships, not knowing that China does not recognise dual citizenships. Now we have intellectuals such as Clive Hamilton coming up with gems such as “As far as Chinese authority is concerned he is a Chinese national”. This has nothing to do with the ethnicity or origin. The Chinese authority does not care if Stern Hu was born in China, or in Vietnam, or indeed in Andromeda, nor do they expect any loyalty towards China. If the allegations widely publicised in Chinese media are anywhere near the truth his conduct would have led to billions lost by Chinese steel makers. It really doesn’t matter whether it is Stern Hu or Steven Hubbs or Slobdan Huntukovic who did it.
    My prediction: After a lengthy judiciary process Stern Hu will be found guilty and deported.

  33. It’s funny how every single major dam ever built in Victoria has been built under a conservative government.

  34. Note also that I did not claim Stern Hu is actually guilty. Too hard to tell and the way things are developing it doesn’t matter anymore.

  35. robot

    Pardon my ignorance but I only had the OO to read last week so I have only even been told that Hu is a caplitalist pin-up boy who has been persecuted by the slopey-eyed commies.

    What exactly has Hu actually been accused of ❓

  36. Diogenese

    As far as I know his formal status is that he is being held while he is being investigated but he has not been charged.

  37. Diogenes:
    Hu has been alleged to have bribed a (possibly more) key official in the Chinese negotiation team, obtaining confidential internal records and production data which greatly aided Rio Tinto in the latest round of negotiation. In short, Hu knew the bottom line of Chinese negotiators.
    Several executives of Chinese steel producing/trading companies are also detained, with several more “under investigation”.

  38. Saw the throw-away comment above about having to move north to grow food now that the Murray Darling Basin is rooted.

    Great idea. And when the North is rooted we can try fish farming in the Coral Sea.

  39. I’m amused at Ponting’s complaints about time wasting. He might have got an extra over or two in if Peter Siddle had turned and walked back to his mark rather than stand mid-pitch and abuse Graeme Swann. But I suppose some fast bowler standing mouthing obscenities that can easily be understood by anyone watching the coverage at home is acceptable behaviour rather than questionable sportsmanship.

  41. [It’s funny how every single major dam ever built in Victoria has been built under a conservative government.]

    Possibly because conservatives ruled Victoria without a break from 1855 to 1952, and then again from 1955 to 1982. There were no water shortages in Victoria in the 1950s, or even in the 1980s. This has really only become an issue over the past 20 years. How many dams did the Kennett government build? (I don’t know.) My recollection is that they actually decomissioned the Tarago reservoir, which Labor is now bringing back online.

  42. It was a conservative government that decided to build an aluminium smelter at Portland using power generated in the La Trobe Valley, requiring vast high voltage cabling to cross the state, losing vast amounts of power through resistance in transmission. Mind you, I don’t think any succeeding government Coalition or Labor agrees that was a good decision.

  43. robot

    For example, imagine a Defense contractor bribed a Chief of Staff to get info on a submarine bid. What would they be charged with? I doubt it would be spying.

  45. The last dam of any size built for Melbourne was the Thomson, commissioned in 1983 under Cain (but built under the previous government).

    Kennett didn’t build any dams.

    There are now a few ‘off river water storages’ being built for various country towns across Victoria.

    My understanding is that Gippslanders froth at the mouth when people like Bolt talk about damming their rivers.

  47. The last dam built was the Thompson in 1981(?). Kennett didn’t build anything – a terrible mistake IMHO (neither did Cain / Kirner). However, it is simply inexcusable that Labor has failed to act since 1999 when the water situtation was clearly deteriorating – only in recent years did they half-heartedly commit to the desal plant. Something that won’t harness nearly as much water as effectively placed dams would.

    We are a first world nation, there is absolutely no reason why we should have to deal with onerous water restrictions. it is simply the result of bad policy making.

  48. Diogenes,
    In the case you outlined it will be spying+endangering national security. The punishment is likely to be much more severe because national defence is involved.

  50. Turnbull’s satis rises 6%, though still very neg. Net Turnbull sat +9, making up somewhat for last week’s 40% fall.

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