Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide

Adelaide’s News Limited Sunday tabloid, the Sunday Mail, today carries a poll with a small sample of 483 showing state Labor with a two-party lead of 64-36 among Adelaide voters. Remarkable as that might sound, Antony Green calculates it’s in the same ballpark as the 2006 election, when the Adelaide two-party result was 62.6-37.4. Antony further observes that the Sunday Mail article absurdly compares this purely metropolitan result with the statewide two-party figure from 2006 to conjure a 7 per cent Labor swing that would cost the Liberals eight of their 14 seats. In reality, the poll points to a roughly status quo result, although that’s quite bad enough for the Liberals given the scale of Labor’s win in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

271 comments on “Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide”

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  1. Not directly relevant, but down here in Hobart we’re up to our back-teeth in water.

    And we blame Labor!

    PS we had a day of sunlight today and Hobart looked like a Chinese Laundry…

  2. Check it out! Mitch Williams is complying with the Adam Carr / Barry O’Farrell “Leader must not have beard” rule. Before:

    After:

  3. P.S: He was first elected in 1997, but I swear the first time I heard of him was a few weeks ago when he told M-H-S that he should resign.

  5. If tears could fill the basin, I have wept. And wept. You may or not remember my sadness over the loss of water for SA. Mind you, it was a little petty, but significant, nevertheless.

    No chance that the Libs in SA could be elected, next round.

    Every chance that Mike Rann and co would be.

    Not because they deserve it.

  6. Anyone else wondering what the 5-letter R-word was? I can only come up with words meaning redhead and Russian, and can’t see where either would fit in.

  9. Funny thing about Mitch Williams… he was elected as an independent (against the Liberals) due to a stupid factional argument in the SA Libs. He joined the party again a bit later on, but jeez it’d be funny if he ended up leading it. I think Iain Evans did the same thing, too. What’s with the Liberals over there?

  10. It was Iain Evans’s father that was elected as an Independent Liberal in 1985, defeating Dean Brown. Evans had been a Liberal MP, contested after losing pre-selection to Brown (their seats had been amalgamated in a redistribution) and later re-joined the party. Ian Evans later succeeded his father.

  11. Bingo ShowsOn.

    [Every chance that Mike Rann and co would be.

    Not because they deserve it.]

    When you compare Rann’s government to the excuse of a government of Brown/Olsen/Kerin, Rann definately deserves it.

    The Liberals couldn’t run themselves let alone the state. At least Rann can do both. Even if the latter isn’t all that spectacularly.

  12. The Advertiser has gone very low key on this story this morning. You have to traverse to page 4 of the ’tiser to even find a mention of this story and it’s hidden under the main headline on page 4 which is about today’s Galaxy Poll release.

    Reading between the lines we can take this as the Advertiser advocating that Martin Hamilton-Smith should keep his job. It could be that the Sunday Mail is in the anyone but MHS camp, and the ’tiser is backing the status quo. Perhaps we can look forward to the release of electorate level opinion polls in the Sunday Mail next weekend …

  13. I don’t get why the Sunday Mail and Advertiser would have different opinions… I thought they were all part of the multi-headed Murdoch beast. Do they operate as different papers or something?

  14. [I don’t get why the Sunday Mail and Advertiser would have different opinions… I thought they were all part of the multi-headed Murdoch beast. Do they operate as different papers or something?]

    Yes and no.

    But I spose yes, they do operate as different papers.

  15. A classic example of Sunday Mail v The Advertiser was the Nicole Cornes issue. The Sunday Mail announced she would be an ALP candidate and trumpeted her credentials. The Advertiser on the other hand was very scathing of her.

    The new RAH has also been a good example with the Advertiser moderately enthusiastic, and the Sunday Mail being neutral to negative on the issue.

  16. Poodle adds his 2c!

    [FEDERAL Liberal powerbroker Christopher Pyne has stepped into the SA Liberal leadership row, saying the issue must be solved – and quickly.

    Mr Pyne, who has recently returned from a visit to Israel, said it would be “utterly inconceivable” if the issue was not sorted out by Friday.

    “I think its inconceivable, utterly inconceivable for the SA Liberal Party to go into the weekend not having resolved this matter,” Mr Pyne said.

    Mr Pyne, who has supported embattled Leader Martin Hamilton Smith, is also a keen supporter of Deputy Leader Vickie Chapman, who has yet to declare her hand apart from saying she supports the leader.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25705590-2682,00.html

  19. Just for those wondering about Mitch Williams’ background and election as an independent, he was a long-time party member who quit the party to run against powerbroker Dale Baker in 1997. Dale had a lot of questions around his business dealings and was not popular in his electorate. Williams’ election was widely seen as enhancing the SA Libs’ reputation by clearing out Baker.

  20. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25705810-5006787,00.html

    [Embattled Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith emerged from the meeting to say there was no news about his future, and that discussions were continuing.

    Deputy leader Vickie Chapman told Adelaide Radio it was inevitable the matter had to be resolved and “that’s what we are working on”. ]

    Is this code for MHS realising he needs to step down but can’t leave the SA Liberals without a leader, as no MP has the numbers so they need to spend time weaving enough support to get one through?

    What a bloody shambles the SA Liberals are.

  23. The fact that no one has, as yet, put their hand up publicly is surely an indication that none of the possible alternatives want the job at this stage. What we seem to be watching is the political equivalent of musical chairs. With the next election looking a foregone conclusion none of the aspirants wants to blot their copybook with the blemish of an election loss as leader.

  24. [The fact that no one has, as yet, put their hand up publicly is surely an indication that none of the possible alternatives want the job at this stage. What we seem to be watching is the political equivalent of musical chairs. With the next election looking a foregone conclusion none of the aspirants wants to blot their copybook with the blemish of an election loss as leader.]

    Mitch Williams and Vickie Chapman at a minimum, want the job, but the party can’t decide who it wants – nobody is managing to get the numbers.

  26. [So you believe everyone is desperate for the spoils of opposition and defeat?]

    They sense that Rann is on the nose (but not enough to be kicked out), theres only 9 months left till the election, it’s the perfect time for a cleanskin to come in. I believe Williams would certainly have a reasonable chance, though it is more likely than unlikely he would lose.

  27. It’s also this – the Liberals would rather lose by less than the 2006 result. They don’t want to go backward.

  31. lol, Pyne and Minchin going at it…

    [A PUBLIC spat has erupted between senior federal Liberal MPs over a leadership crisis engulfing the troubled South Australian branch of the party.

    Federal Liberal powerbroker Christopher Pyne, the Coalition’s education spokesman, yesterday waded into the turmoil surrounding South Australian Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith’s leadership, saying it would be “ludicrous” to pretend there was not a need for a partyroom ballot to “resolve this matter clearly one way or the other this week”.

    The federal opposition’s leader in the Senate, Nick Minchin, yesterday told Mr Pyne to keep out of state affairs.

    The exchange came as Mr Hamilton-Smith said he had not made a decision about his future, but was expected to do so today.

    Last night, the embattled leader remained locked in talks with MPs to determine if he retained majority support, but it seemed increasingly likely he would face a challenge from deputy leader Vickie Chapman, which party sources said would result in him standing down, rather than recontesting the leadership.

    Party sources said last night Ms Chapman was close to having the numbers to mount a successful challenge, or at least convince Mr Hamilton-Smith to step aside. Others in the party said former environment spokesman Mitch Williams, who also was counting numbers yesterday, had enough support to be a serious contender if the leadership became vacant.

    …

    Senator Minchin, a South Australian parliamentarian, former finance minister and leader of the Right faction, told The Australian that Mr Pyne should keep silent on state matters.

    “Federal MPs ought not to be giving gratuitous advice to the state parliamentary party,” Senator Minchin said. “This is entirely a matter for them and we would not welcome them giving us advice. I have urged all my federal colleagues to stay out of this and leave it to our state colleagues to resolve.”

    Mr Pyne yesterday told The Australian he had not spoken to Ms Chapman about leadership.

    “I said what any sensible Liberal would say,” Mr Pyne said. “Whether Nick Minchin is happy or unhappy with that is of no consequence to me.”]

  33. [MARTIN Hamilton-Smith has defended his leadership of the Liberal Party for one more day, leading to a dangerous stalemate that threatens to neuter the party.

    Leadership was a hot topic at yesterday’s party room meeting, but MPs were publicly sticking to the mantra that “the matter is under consideration and will be resolved”.

    However, one senior party member said Mr Hamilton-Smith had been told he had “one last chance to grab some dignity” and resign under his own steam.

    Last night the party leader was contacting MPs to boost his support base beyond what is believed to be only four votes, but a senior MP said “there wasn’t much fight left” in him.

    “Normally, you would expect him to come back in typical Martin fashion; if there’s a head, kick it. But there’s not much fight there.”

    A senior MP told Mr Hamilton-Smith: “There has to be a challenge because we can’t win with you.”

    In contrast, deputy leader Vickie Chapman is understood to have nine votes – enough to formally challenge for the leadership. Her hesitation raises speculation she wants a clean transition, to avoid being seen as having blood on her hands.

    Federal Liberal MP Christopher Pyne yesterday called for the party to end the crisis by Friday, while a senior party source said the lack of resolution had neutered the party.

    “It has done the party enormous damage,” he said. “I think it’s all just a stalemate – which is the worst possible result.”

    While the matter is described as “fluid”, another party source said a leadership team of Ms Chapman and former Opposition environment spokesman Mitch Williams could offer a unifying ticket, in an election expected to cut into the Liberal vote. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25705590-2682,00.html

  34. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25711811-5013871,00.html

    [SOUTH Australian opposition leader Martin Hamilton-Smith is set to call on a leadership spill and try to fight to retain his position, Liberal Party sources have told The Australian.

    It is understood Mr Hamilton-Smith, who has been widely tipped to stand aside today after weeks of internal turmoil around his leadership, has won last minute support from panicked MPs who fear things will only be worse for them under deputy leader Vickie Chapman. ]

    Bwahahahahaha… hilarious.

  37. bob

    I saw this at Rann’s Twitter site.

    [Are we going to have a Lib Leader in SA who opposed DNA testing of killer Von Einem, opposed Nemer intervention, criticised us on bikies?]

    Was that Chapman? Looks like “rack em and stack em” will be the attack from Mr Tough on Crime.

  38. [Was that Chapman? Looks like “rack em and stack em” will be the attack from Mr Tough on Crime.]

    I think we already know that Chapman as Liberal leader is a disaster waiting to happen. I don’t know what a worse outcome would be – MHS remaining leader, or Chapman taking over. I think the most sensible option, from their perspective, would be Mitch Williams.

  40. [I think the most sensible option, from their perspective, would be Mitch Williams.]
    The problem seems to be that the anyone but MHS forces can’t decide on a candidate, which threatens to split their vote, and thus allow MHS to stay on as leader.

  41. The Liberals are truly a sad rabble. No loyalty whatsoever. Vickie Chapman looked pretty smug and confident last night on ABC news as she walked past the cameras. She could hardly keep the smile off her face – she’s going to win, I’m sure of it.

  42. Mike Rann gets in some early attacks on Vickie Chapman:
    [Are we going to have a Lib Leader in SA who opposed DNA testing of killer Von Einem, opposed Nemer intervention, criticised us on bikies?]

  47. [Mitch Williams, who quit the party frontbench at the weekend and demanded Mr Hamilton-Smith stand down, says he will not be contesting the ballot.

    “Whatever happens there is going to be re-focus after this and that is what we had to have,” Mr Williams said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612676.htm

    I reckon MHS will win the ballot now. Liberals are definately going to lose next year.

  48. Oh, and in that link Isobel Redmond and Iain Evans also say they won’t challenge.

    So it’s MHS vs Chapman. MHS has already won.

  49. There’s 22 Liberals in the S.A. parliament right.

    Wouldn’t it be hilarious if both candidates get 11 votes? 😀

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