Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide

Adelaide’s News Limited Sunday tabloid, the Sunday Mail, today carries a poll with a small sample of 483 showing state Labor with a two-party lead of 64-36 among Adelaide voters. Remarkable as that might sound, Antony Green calculates it’s in the same ballpark as the 2006 election, when the Adelaide two-party result was 62.6-37.4. Antony further observes that the Sunday Mail article absurdly compares this purely metropolitan result with the statewide two-party figure from 2006 to conjure a 7 per cent Labor swing that would cost the Liberals eight of their 14 seats. In reality, the poll points to a roughly status quo result, although that’s quite bad enough for the Liberals given the scale of Labor’s win in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

271 comments on “Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide”

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  1. [ The Green vote has doubled in Newspoll since the last election, so I think the Greens will easily poll in the 20s/30s, maybe higher if she stuffs up. ]

    Careful there. The Greens vote statewide may double, but the vote in their best seat will probably increase by a smaller proportion than that. Similar idea: some marginal ALP/Lib seats swung by 10%+ to Labor in the last federal election, but not the safe Labor ones – less room for improvement. With SA Labor being inevitably less popular than in 2006, I can see the Greens finishing second, but I’d be surprised if they got over 25%.

    (Of course, I probably said the same thing about Fremantle at last year’s state election, and was quite happily proven wrong. Does the Molotov have any inside info on Heysen?)

  2. According to one of the comments, Chapman made a freudian slip on ABC news tonight – she “pledged her uncommitted-opps unconditional support to the new leader”

    Oh, that’s gold. True, though. I’d suggest the odds of Redmond losing the election and being forced out while Chapman and Williams spar over her political corpse…rather better than $6.25.

  4. [Does the Molotov have any inside info on Heysen?]
    Yes. … Full Stop. I don’t really know what would be wise to make public though so I won’t say anything. I don’t think the Greens can win in 2010 – 2014 maybe.

    Something I am willing to discuss but which is of very little significants: many years ago when my 1/2 American mate took us ‘trick or treating’ we went to Redmonds door and she’d bothered to dress up the place with spooky stuff and her daughter gave us loads of good loot. I also played a boardgame with one of her sons once: ‘Monopoly’ of course! – bloody torys.

  6. [I don’t think the Greens can win in 2010 – 2014 maybe.]

    If Isobel does stuff up or the public still think the Libs are a joke, I dare say the Greens have a better chance in 2010, than in 2014 where the Libs will have more choices to pick from for leader. 2010 is a perfect storm for the Greens where the public aren’t happy with either party. Albiet more the Libs than Labor.

  7. I must say though, a 51% approval and 34% disapproval rating for Rann is pretty damn good considering he’s been leader since 1994 and Premier since 2002.

  12. 251

    It is true that marginals do often swing more than safe seats but it is quite possible that swings to the Greens are stronger in safe seats.

  13. [It is true that marginals do often swing more than safe seats but it is quite possible that swings to the Greens are stronger in safe seats.]

    I wonder if Possum has done a graph comparing individual seat swings at the 2007 federal election…

  14. [Ms Redmond yesterday found herself defending her position, less than 24 hours after being elected leader.

    The Government was gloating after she said on radio that whether convicted murderer Bevan Spencer Von Einem was released or not would depend on circumstances.

    She would be hesitant, however, to move against a recommendation of the Parole Board, she said.

    Soon after the radio interview, Ms Redmond called her first press conference as leader and said she needed to clarify the situation.

    “I want to make it absolutely clear there is no possibility of Von Einem ever being released from prison,” she said. “It is clear to me he is an unrepentant person who has committed the most heinous crimes.”

    She described the Government’s attack on her over the issue as “an appalling political tactic”.

    They were prepared to “dredge up the most preposterous scenarios”, Ms Redmond said.

    “I know the Government is out to target me,” she said. “Anyone can call this a hiccup if they want. I don’t consider it a hiccup.”

    While she said Von Einem would not be released, Ms Redmond said that, as a rule, government should not interfere with the recommendations of the Parole Board “otherwise you end up with a government that decides who is going to be in jail and who is not”.

    Attorney-General Michael Atkinson said Ms Redmond was “throwing political baggage overboard on day one”.

    He said all the convicted murderers whose release was vetoed by the Rann Government now would be free on the streets if she were Premier.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25758518-5006301,00.html

  15. I wonder if someone can tell me how they think the boundary redistribution will affect the Green vote in Heysen based on 2006 booths?

  18. [Liberal sources say the growing number of “yuppies” in the Stirling-Bridgewater-Mt Barker area will ensure the party keeps its stranglehold on those seats.

    They believe the only credible challenges to a Liberal MP could come from an independent or from the Greens.

    The former foreign minister and member for the Hills seat of Mayo from 1984 to 2008, Alexander Downer, has a simple explanation for why the area keeps putting Liberals into Parliament. “It is because Hills people are more intelligent,” he says. “The ALP has never won a seat in the Hills.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25763346-2682,00.html

    What a pompous wanker!

  19. 268

    Downer included a high proportion of academics and university graduates as one of the reasons that the Liberal do so well. Are they all high end academics and university graduates mainly from non Art/social faculties and professions? Or has Downer forgotten the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s and 2000s not to mention the Howard Governments higher education policies and the reasons behind them?

  20. Julia Bishop also grew up in the Adelaide hills.

    [What a pompous wanker!]
    Everything he ever says burns me up. He was the worst.

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