Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide

Adelaide’s News Limited Sunday tabloid, the Sunday Mail, today carries a poll with a small sample of 483 showing state Labor with a two-party lead of 64-36 among Adelaide voters. Remarkable as that might sound, Antony Green calculates it’s in the same ballpark as the 2006 election, when the Adelaide two-party result was 62.6-37.4. Antony further observes that the Sunday Mail article absurdly compares this purely metropolitan result with the statewide two-party figure from 2006 to conjure a 7 per cent Labor swing that would cost the Liberals eight of their 14 seats. In reality, the poll points to a roughly status quo result, although that’s quite bad enough for the Liberals given the scale of Labor’s win in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

271 comments on “Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide”

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  1. [There’s 22 Liberals in the S.A. parliament right.

    Wouldn’t it be hilarious if both candidates get 11 votes?]

    And it would be made more hilarious by the fact that part of the anger toward MHS is the 2pp swing they suffered against Labor at the Frome by-election. Rob Kerin would definately have voted for MHS (conservative) over Chapman (moderate).

  2. I’m surprised Chapman counts as a moderate. I thought she was party of the snooty Liberal establishment, e.g. like Alexander Downer.

  3. ShowsOn

    I’ve never seen Chapman string enough intelligible words together to form a sentence let alone a position on where she would fit on the spectrum. She’s possibly the worst politician I’ve ever seen in a leadership role.

    If she is made leader of the Libs, I predict an armageddon at the next election. I haven’t met a single person with a good word to say about her.

  4. [She’s possibly the worst politician I’ve ever seen in a leadership role.]
    To me she is a perfect example of the sort of Adelaide Liberal establishment figure who gets bored in middle age, so decides to get a seat in parliament.

  6. [To me she is a perfect example of the sort of Adelaide Liberal establishment figure who gets bored in middle age, so decides to get a seat in parliament.]

    I dare say she always wanted to be in parliament – her father was a Liberal MP. Liberal families tend to be bred en masse here in SA.

  8. Who should lead the SA Liberals?

    Martin Hamilton-Smith
    27% (289 votes)
    Vickie Chapman
    35% (377 votes)
    Neither
    37% (396 votes)

    lollerskates

  10. Now that we know the leadership challenge is between MHS and Vickie Chapman on Saturday, it will add weight to the saying “Damned if you do and damned if you don’t”.
    Another free kick to the Labor Party.

  11. bob

    I think Neither would do a much better job than either Chapman or MHS, and give Rann a run for his money. I hope the Libs do the right thing. :cheese:

  12. [I think Neither would do a much better job than either Chapman or MHS, and give Rann a run for his money. I hope the Libs do the right thing. :cheese:]

    I think Mitch Williams was hoping MHS would stand down so he’d pick up the conservative votes. He knows that with MHS running he won’t get the numbers.

  15. 10 News Adelaide just reported that Alexander Downer is the S.A. Liberals’ chief fund-raiser for the next election.

    I think Labor will get 56% of the vote again.

  16. Looks like the Young Liberals have been working overtime:

    You have already voted! Here are the results so far:

    Who should lead the SA Liberals?

    Martin Hamilton-Smith
    36% (1354 votes)
    Vickie Chapman
    39% (1457 votes)
    Neither
    24% (911 votes)

  19. But it’s hilarious that MHS will stay. The SA Liberals had already lost next years election after dodgygate and all the fallout afterward, but then MHS called a spill, and he won it against the dill known as Vickie Chapman. With only these two as contenders, they were stuffed either way.

    But now the Liberals are left with the status quo. They have a leader that SA laughs at. Labor can’t lose, pending an absolute disaster.

  20. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25721858-5013948,00.html

    [Numbers for Saturday’s leadership spill are believed to be far tighter than those being reported in Adelaide media outlets, with concern among some Liberal MPs that if Mr Hamilton-Smith retains his position, nothing will have changed and the party will face oblivion at the next state election in March.

    But Mr Hamilton-Smith insists there is no election that can’t be won and is desperately urging the media to stop investigating the source and other associated issues surrounding the fake documents affair.]

    I bet he is

  21. [THE troubled South Australian branch of the Liberal Party has for the second time in a week tried to ban the media from Parliament House as tensions rise over tomorrow¿s leadership spill, called on by embattled leader Martin Hamilton-Smith.

    House of Assembly Speaker Jack Snelling today confirmed the Liberals had asked for the media to be locked out of Parliament House during tomorrow’s vote for the leader and deputy positions.

    This follows farcical scenes at a shadow cabinet meeting on Monday, when the leader’s chief of staff John Lewis and media adviser Craig Clarke asked the media to leave a corridor at Parliament House leading to the meeting room. When the media refused, parliamentary security was called and a representative of the clerk’s office ordered the media to leave the corridors. Doors were then shut and a guard placed on them to prevent MPs from being filmed or asked questions.

    Mr Snelling said he had been in contact with Mr Lewis and “given him the option of finding some way of having the media allowed in the building” for tomorrow’s meeting.

    “I am waiting for him to get back to me, but this is at the Liberals’ request, I am more than happy to let you all in the building and make arrangements so that could be done, but it is the Liberal Party that does not want you there,” he said.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25727141-601,00.html

  22. So today’s the day. Barring some bizarre event, MHS is to be re-elected to the party leadership, and next year re-elected to opposition, probably with the same landslide margin of 2006.

  23. [Whoever wins the ballot – Martin Hamilton-Smith or Vickie Chapman – has to win enough seats at the coming state election to provide a solid springboard to tackle Labor in 2014.

    Senior Liberals say the party is really fighting for the survival of the Liberal brand.

    They believe if the party cannot do well next year, then 2022 – unless of course Labor self-destructs – is looking like the next date when a Liberal government will be formed.

    By then, not one of the current Liberals will still be in Parliament giving added weight to the speculation that the next Liberal Premier is not yet in Parliament.

    Unless Ms Chapman wins, it will not be a fresh start for the Liberals. If Mr Hamilton-Smith wins, and he appears to have the numbers locked away, then he will continue to be under scrutiny until the election.

    “If he wins but doesn’t enjoy any significant bounce in the polls over the next couple of months, then it will be all on again,” a senior Liberal told me.]

    Quite funny.

    [“I think we will have to go through the Vickie experience before we could go to anyone else,” another MP said.]

    Even funnier.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25730198-2682,00.html

  28. [Hamilton-Smith said he would call another leadership spill to get a more decisive result before parliament sits again on July 14.]
    Instead of doing this he should’ve recognised that he effectively retained the leadership based on his own vote.He should’ve just resigned.

    That Advertiser article says that Mitch Williams abstained, well that should rule him out of ever being leader, because he couldn’t make a hard choice.

    At the top of this page I hoped that the result would be 11 votes all. but this result is even better, the idiot MHS has now requested that this speculation play out for another 5 days!

  29. [Instead of doing this he should’ve recognised that he effectively retained the leadership based on his own vote.He should’ve just resigned.]

    And he may just do that. Chapman says she’ll be recontesting the leadership, MHS says he hasn’t made up his mind yet. If MHS does step down, another one would be needed anyway.

    I wonder what he’ll do.

  30. I think Chapman would be a fantastic choice from a Labor perspective though. God she’s thick. She makes Mark Latham look great in comparison.

  32. [At a press conference immediately after this morning’s vote, Mr Hamilton-Smith, when asked if he was destroying the Liberal Party brand out of self-interest,]
    I think he is doing it out of stupidity.

  34. [Who is stupider?:

    Martin Hamilton-Smith
    Sarah Palin]

    Sarah Palin.

    A better and harder question to answer would have been between Chapman and Palin. I think Chapman may very well be Australia’s equivalent of Palin.

  35. I see The Advertiser is still applying a metro poll to all of SA…

    [THE beleaguered Liberal Party faces more damaging infighting with yet another leadership ballot set for Wednesday at 10am.

    Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith’s bid to galvanise party support in the face of ongoing leadership speculation by holding a ballot yesterday backfired spectacularly, when he won by just one vote (11 to 10) against rival Vickie Chapman, with one still-unnamed MP abstaining.

    The ballot was triggered by the poll in last week’s Sunday Mail, which found the Liberals on the path to a wipeout in the 2010 election, with the party on track to lose eight of its 14 House of Assembly seats amid fallout from the “dodgy documents” affair, in which Liberals mistakenly tried to use fake documents to discredit the Government. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25731562-5006301,00.html

    This bit is interesting…

    [He initially told the party room he would resign the leadership immediately]

    This would be funny…

    [With the vote so close, the party faces the farcical situation of having the leader’s name drawn from a hat if Wednesday’s vote is tied 11-11 three times.]

  36. [He initially told the party room he would resign the leadership immediately]
    The only reason he would say this is if he didn’t want the leadership.
    [With the vote so close, the party faces the farcical situation of having the leader’s name drawn from a hat ]
    If the vote is split 11 all between MHS and Chapman, then the only solution is to give the leadership to someone else.

    How hilarious is Isobel Redmond! She was easily elected deputy leader, but then she wouldn’t rule out running for the position as leader next Wednesday!

  37. [How hilarious is Isobel Redmond! She was easily elected deputy leader, but then she wouldn’t rule out running for the position as leader next Wednesday!]

    Reminds me of Hawke being treasurer for a day hehe. Though in completely different circumstances.

  38. LOL! I only just read the Sunday Mail. According to Christian Kerr, Mitch Williams, who last Sunday went to the back bench after saying MHS’s leadership was doomed, ultimately voted for MHS!

    From the tone of the article Kerr came across as a Vickie Chapman supporter.

  39. [LOL! I only just read the Sunday Mail. According to Christian Kerr, Mitch Williams, who last Sunday went to the back bench after saying MHS’s leadership was doomed, ultimately voted for MHS!

    From the tone of the article Kerr came across as a Vickie Chapman supporter.]

    What?! I thought Williams would have been the MP who abstained, because he’s conservative to the bone so would never vote for Chapman, but would also never vote for MHS after the fallout between them. I wonder where Kerr got his supposed facts from. And if he’s right, and Williams voted MHS, then I wonder which MP was the one to abstain and why……….

  40. [ISOBEL Redmond will take on Vickie Chapman for the Liberal party leadership – announcing her bid only one day after being elected deputy leader.

    Ms Redmond said she was standing to be a “circuit breaker” after current leader Martin Hamilton-Smith won yesterday’s leadership ballot by only one vote.

    “Right now our party is like a runaway train, we have slammed into the buffer at the end of the line,” she said.

    “That buffer is made of two blocks as hard as concrete with almost equal support. It is now time to clear the air. ]

    Mmm, she certainly has a way with words. She’s always been as thick as Chapman (well, almost…).

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25731562-5006301,00.html

  42. Interesting comment left on The Advertiser:

    Who’s stupider?: Martin Hamilton-Smith Vickie Chapman Sarah Palin
    Posted by: ShowsOn of Adelaide 4:57pm July 04, 2009

    😀

  44. [I wonder where Kerr got his supposed facts from. And if he’s right, and Williams voted MHS, then I wonder which MP was the one to abstain and wh]
    Apparently it was Iain Evans.

  46. Mitch Williams has now nominated according to 9 News!

    I wonder if that means he has got inside word that MHS won’t be running?

  48. But if he does nominate, as the only conservative candidate to nominate so far, i’d say the Liberal leadership is his. Redmond and Chapman are both moderates.

  49. [But if he does nominate, as the only conservative candidate to nominate so far, i’d say the Liberal leadership is his. Redmond and Chapman are both moderates.]
    The moderate votes may stick together though in a 2nd round of voting.

    It is quite possible that MHS is current negotiating for a plum job, e.g. shadow treasurer in return for not running and supporting Williams.

  50. [Hmm, can’t find it online anywhere…]
    ABC News confirm Williams and Redmond have nominated, along with Chapman who nominated yesterday.

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