Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide

Adelaide’s News Limited Sunday tabloid, the Sunday Mail, today carries a poll with a small sample of 483 showing state Labor with a two-party lead of 64-36 among Adelaide voters. Remarkable as that might sound, Antony Green calculates it’s in the same ballpark as the 2006 election, when the Adelaide two-party result was 62.6-37.4. Antony further observes that the Sunday Mail article absurdly compares this purely metropolitan result with the statewide two-party figure from 2006 to conjure a 7 per cent Labor swing that would cost the Liberals eight of their 14 seats. In reality, the poll points to a roughly status quo result, although that’s quite bad enough for the Liberals given the scale of Labor’s win in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

271 comments on “Sunday Mail: 64-36 to SA Labor in Adelaide”

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  2. Monday 6th June… (even though it still isn’t, but who knows what they put in the water at the Tiser…)

    [THE Liberal leadership ballot is shaping up as a two-horse race – with the winner to become the state’s first female head of a major political party.

    Legal affairs spokeswoman Isobel Redmond and former environment spokesman Mitch Williams yesterday declared they would stand against former deputy leader Vickie Chapman for leadership of the party.

    Incumbent leader Martin Hamilton-Smith is increasingly likely to announce this morning he will not stand, because party sources say his support is switching to Ms Redmond.

    Ms Redmond was elected deputy leader in Saturday’s vote in which Mr Hamilton-Smith beat Ms Chapman for the leadership – by only one vote (11 votes to 10).

    Party sources said Ms Redmond could count on at least 10 votes, with at least three of Ms Chapman’s votes – considered “anti-Marty” votes rather than “pro-Chapman” – expected to swing behind Ms Redmond.

    This would leave Mr Williams with a slim coterie of votes, and either Ms Redmond or Ms Chapman as the state’s first female leader of a major political party.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25731562-5006301,00.html

    Still no mention of Williams?

  3. I speak too soon.

    [Mr Williams said he would stand for the leadership in an attempt to bring an end to the destabilisation of the party.]

  4. [I speak too soon.]
    You left out the funny bit:
    [My view always was that if Martin Hamilton-Smith did not stand I would,” he said.

    “However, even at this stage, even if Mr Hamilton-Smith was going to run again I would still stand. (This) should have been resolved two weeks ago.”]
    What I think they should do is ALL stand, and every week ONE person is voted out, until there are only 2 left, then home viewers get to choose. The winner can be announced on Stateline S.A.

  6. [The media really really really need to stop treating the Sunday Mail 64/36 metro poll as if it were statewide.]
    Yeah, but isn’t it kind of funny that the Liberals are having a complete meltdown when the poll result was bad, but not any worse than at the last election?

  7. [Yeah, but isn’t it kind of funny that the Liberals are having a complete meltdown when the poll result was bad, but not any worse than at the last election?]

    They cared more about the impression the poll gave. Well timed by the Sunday Mail… it was just the last nail in the coffin, after Dodgy-gate, and the disaster that was the Frome by-election, where they went backward on the ALP v Lib 2pp, and lost the seat after preference distribution to an independent.

  8. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25737957-5006787,00.html

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25738101-601,00.html

    [SOUTH Australia’s Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith is likely to stand down today, claiming he is a victim of a “factional stitch-up”.]

    It really is rich of MHS, considering how he got in to parliament in 1997, and how he unsuccessfully challenged Kerin for the leadership, then Evans. He can dish it out but he can’t take it.

  9. [Mr Hamilton-Smith was giving nothing away when told by The Australian that most Liberal MPs were expecting him to stand down today.

    “Oh really, oh really?” he said. “We’ll just have to wait and see.

    “Do not believe anything anyone is telling you other than what you hear from my mouth, because people have been feeding you (the media) a whole lot of shit for several weeks to suit their own factional agenda.” ]

    HAHAHA, shit huh? That language doesn’t suit a leader of a major party!

    😀

  10. [Senior Liberal Party sources said Mr Hamilton-Smith, a former SAS commander, appeared shellshocked when Saturday’s result came in 11-10, with one anonymous MP abstaining. He immediately told the fractured partyroom he would stand down.

    But veteran MPs Ivan Venning and Graham Gunn talked him out of that move, which would have delivered the leadership to Ms Chapman. ]

    The conservatives are furious!! 😀

  11. Redmond is my local member and whilst I do not in any way support her or her policies and put her second to last at the previous election, based on my dealing with her i’d have to say she seems like quite a nice lady (although i think i remember hearing something about her being involved in some dodgy litigation), far better than Downer (scum of the Earth) or his replacement (junior scum hack import bugger who in no way represents me in Canberra, which is why we need PR). I was also impressed with her efforts to prevent the banning of ‘hookers’ (not prostitutes but those pipes that catapillas and Arabs smoke. Are they spelled the same?). However I do not want to see her leader for two reasons 1: selfishly I don’t want the opposition leader as my local member because that will make it harder to remove her and 2: If I have reasonbly favourable opinion of her then it would follow that others would too and so she could do well for the Libs at the election.

  12. Yes, Heysen is the best lower house seat for the Greens (as it was for the Democrats) and Redmond as Liberal leader would most likely help her. Though what i’m hoping for, and what may well come true, is that Redmond has almost the same level of intelligence that Chapman has. If Redmond does gain the Liberal leadership, I hope she stuffs up big time when the election campaign proper rolls around, and causes a bundle of votes to go to the Greens in protest, and win the seat.

    To have the other side take a leader’s seat is one feat, but for a minor party to unseat a leader, now that’s something!

  13. Oh come on William, how on earth in anything I said in reply have caused it to be locked in awaiting moderation? I honestly can’t see a single word in it that might have caused it. Sigh.

    Come back later to read my reply Molotov.

  15. Bob123
    [If Redmond does gain the Liberal leadership, I hope she stuffs up big time when the election campaign proper rolls around, and causes a bundle of votes to go to the Greens in protest, and win the seat.]
    For that to work it would have to be a stuff up of MHS-ian proportions. One day it will be a Greens seat but i don’t think it will be at the 2010 election – either 2014 or 2018.

  16. Bob, the funny thing is that Joh Bonkers- Petersen found himself in a very similar position years ago when he was considered weak and incoherent as Premier leading to a challenge to his leadership. He phoned people all night before the vote which was drawn but gave himself the casting vote and went on to be an extreme and incoherent Premier for years.

    It isn’t over till the votes are counted and absolutely anything could happen with this amount of heat and pressure. Thanks for the updates so far, it has been like someone commentating at a circus, very entertaining all weekend with yet more to come.

  18. [Mr Hamilton-Smith was giving nothing away when told by The Australian that most Liberal MPs were expecting him to stand down today.

    “Oh really, oh really?” he said. “We’ll just have to wait and see.]

    This sounds like a typical hardcore Tory who is about to make a fool of his friends at News Ltd. It would be stranger than fiction for a leader to stand down two days after being elected leader. It sounds to me like someone who is going to try and tough it out against the odds as his fearless leader is trying to do at a national level.

  19. News Radio reported about 20 minutes ago that Martin Hamilton Smith WILL run for the leadership.

    However, ABC local radio Adelaide sayd that MHS still hadn’t decided, and would make an announcement later today.

  21. Christopher Pyne:
    [The state Liberal party and the federal Liberal party are very different entities]
    What a moron, he can’t even stick up for his political party!

  22. (Former Labor Senator) Chris Schacht:
    [The best result for the Labor party would be MHS re-elected after 6 ballots, including 4 drawn votes, and a few picks out of the hat.]

    [No one in the Adelaide metro area knows who Mitch Williams is.]

  25. [Will he announce the Leadership Meeting is canceled or his resignation?]
    The Australian and NewsRadio think he will announce he is a candidate on Wednesday.

    ABC Local Radio and The Advertiser think he will announce that he is resigning and won’t re-contest.

  31. [ShowsOn he might be trying to do a Troy Buswell. Become Shadow Treasurer or something.]
    Good point. Maybe he has decided to support Redmond as long as she makes him Shadow Treasurer.

    Maybe that will be enough to give her more votes than Chapman.

  33. [Martin Hamilton-Smith won’t say who he wants to replace him as South Australian opposition leader.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/sa-liberal-leader-stands-down-20090706-d9jj.html

    I bet he won’t! When the only conservative faction MP running for the leadership was the earliest MP to say you should go, and then resign from your cabinet, you’re not left with much choice are you!

    Good riddance to bad rubbish. Though I will miss seeing what other seats would have fallen to Labor under MHS.

  34. Well, I interpreted his lack of endorsement as a confirmation that he is currently battling behind the scenes for a plum job, e.g. shadow treasury.

    It is quite possible that whoever he votes for will win the contest, because he would have a few factional friends who will be willing support whoever he supports.

  35. Well he definately won’t support Chapman or Williams, and the fact that those who voted for MHS are giving their vote to Redmond is rather telling.

  36. [Well he definately won’t support Chapman or Williams, and the fact that those who voted for MHS are giving their vote to Redmond is rather telling.]
    Williams ultimately voted for MHS remember, I guess because it made it harder for Chapman to win.

    I think MHS would vote for Williams if it increased the chance of Chapman losing.

  37. I think it would be funny if each candidate (Chapman, Redmond, Williams) gets 7 votes and there is one abstention.

    What do they do then? Play again on Saturday? 😀

  38. [Williams ultimately voted for MHS remember, I guess because it made it harder for Chapman to win.

    I think MHS would vote for Williams if it increased the chance of Chapman losing.]

    Why not Redmond? That’s where the MHS votes are going to apparently.

  39. [Why not Redmond? That’s where the MHS votes are going to apparently.]
    Because Redmond effectively challenged him on the day she became deputy leader? 😀

    I still think we need some Game Theory experts to explain all the permutations. 😀

  44. That’s got to be the best photo i’ve ever seen of Isobel Redmond. I’m sure now that MHS has gone, the ‘Tiser will fully swing behind the Liberals again.

  45. [I’m sure now that MHS has gone, the ‘Tiser will fully swing behind the Liberals again.]
    The Tiser didn’t support Iain Evans.

  46. [The Tiser didn’t support Iain Evans.]

    Why would they? He was hopeless right from the beginning, and before that.

  47. [TWO former ministers from the last Liberal government Iain Evans and Rob Lucas are set to be promoted if challenger Isobel Redmond wins tomorrow’s leadership ballot.

    Mr Evans was relegated to a minor frontbench role under Martin Hamilton-Smith’s leadership while Mr Lucas, who was a former Treasurer, lost his frontbench role entirely.

    Ms Redmond has told The Advertiser she would want to “re-include talent like Mr Lucas and Mr Evans” if she won the ballot, saying: “That talent has been wasted.”

    Liberal sources said late yesterday they expected the ballot to be “closer than people think”.

    They said there was a groundswell of support for Mitch Williams because many male members of the party were worried about having a female leader.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25731562-2682,00.html

  48. [Liberal sources said late yesterday they expected the ballot to be “closer than people think”.]
    [They said there was a groundswell of support for Mitch Williams because many male members of the party were worried about having a female leader.]
    Fantastic! Both of these comments suggest that a 7 – 7 – 7 split with one abstention is a possibility!

    Then they can have another leadership spill on Saturday!

  49. [Fantastic! Both of these comments suggest that a 7 – 7 – 7 split with one abstention is a possibility!

    Then they can have another leadership spill on Saturday!]

    Even an 8-7-6 split would crush the party. A three-way leadership contest, with such a small caucus, is never a good idea.

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