Morgan: 55-45

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

899 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. [he’s probably alienated every measureable demographic.]

    Except for the members of the Cat Strangulation Society who reckon big bad Mal is a top bloke.

  2. “MALCOLM Turnbull has paid for his botched attack on Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, with more than half of voters believing he was deceitful about a now-notorious fake email. Even among committed Coalition voters, nearly a third believe he has been deceitful and another 10 per cent say he has been dishonest. A Galaxy poll taken at the weekend has revealed the Opposition Leader’s integrity has taken a hammering, revealing a rump of only 7 per cent of voters who think he was “open and honest” during the affair.”

    “Hit in the polls” my ass.

  7. [I always had the feeling that Galaxy produce the most conservative figure of the lot, but just a feeling.]

    Well Galaxy is showing the 2PP swing as the result of a rise in The Greens vote to 12%. That’s quite high compared to the other polls and I doubt Nielsen will replicate it.

  9. [Gusface, Turnbull’s favourite book for sure.]

    from my understanding the year of release was co-incidental to other feats of
    catricide
    😉

  11. [Coalition dealt blow in Newspoll
    Updated: 23:17, Sunday June 28, 2009

    Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition have received a devastating blow in the latest Newspoll to be published in tomorrow’s Australian newspaper, the first since the OzCar scandal erupted in parliament.

    In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Kevin Rudd’s approval has surged to 65 per cent, while Mr Turnbull has erased any recent gains, dropping back to an approval rating of just 18 per cent.

    On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition has slumped three points, in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s call for the Prime Minister’s resignation, while labor has soared ahead three points.

    The result will come as a pleasant surprise to the Prime Minister, who recently said he expected to take a hit in the polls over the OzCar affair.]

  14. [On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition has slumped three points, in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s call for the Prime Minister’s resignation, while labor has soared ahead three points.]
    So does that mean 56/44? Same as Galaxy?

  19. [Kev knew all along didn’t he Adam.

    Kevin sees all, Kevin knows all. In Kevin we trust.]

    Steady on Zombie

    He’s only a demi-god
    😉

  23. [In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Kevin Rudd’s approval has surged to 65 per cent, while Mr Turnbull has erased any recent gains, dropping back to an approval rating of just 18 per cent.]

    This is where the Liberals will be most angry. The fired their single shot and missed badly, hurting themselves. The real problem for them now is it won’t work again, it was a once only trick. People wont believe it a second time.

  29. [Hunt]
    No one takes the 15 year old seriously. That dog won’t…
    [Keenan]
    He needs to learn how to speak properly first.

  31. In a first, Indonesians have stopped a people smugglers boat from landing that was heading from Australia to Indonesia. The only occupant was a cat that spoke with a Sydney eastern suburbs accent.

  33. Thomas id correct that scorecard…

    Howard – stumped Rudd
    Nelson – caught and bowled Rudd
    Costello – retired ‘hurt’
    Turnbull – handling the ball

    lol

    BTW what is with the cat reference that came up with this week?

  34. See that video link I posted earlier…..this will what is going in Liberal Party HQ right now. Uncanny how something 8 months ago fits perfect now.

    [Somebody has been busy, a quality job on the subtitles…somebody here do this one?
    It says it was uploaded 8 months ago…if so it is remarkably appropriate for Malcolm today – because it is Godwin’s law applied in spades.

    Malcolm Turnbull – Downfall
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEOwfMo38Os
    ]

  36. Hockey is outpolling Turnbull on prefered leader:
    [More than twice as many people (37 per cent to 18 per cent) would prefer Peter Costello than Mr Turnbull as Liberal leader, despite Mr Costello already announcing he will not run for another term. Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey, on 21 per cent, is also outshining Mr Turnbull as preferred opposition leader, with Tony Abbott on 10 per cent.]

  39. Oh Dear:

    [Mr Turnbull’s approval is his lowest ever, and the lowest for an opposition leader since the final weeks of Brendan Nelson, the man he toppled.

    Mr Turnbull’s net approval — calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval — is minus 28 per cent. The last opposition leader to reach this sort of level was Simon Crean, shortly before he lost the Labor leadership in 2003. Mr Turnbull’s 60 per cent disapproval is the worst for an opposition leader since Mr Crean.

    Pollster John Stirton said: “Mr Turnbull now has an approval rating similar to that of Brendan Nelson on the way out and a disapproval rating similar to that of Simon Crean on the way out.”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/support-for-turnbull-plunges-20090628-d19z.html

  40. The Liberal party are calling this a CATastrophe, what with the leader suffering from CATatonic outbursts and frequent CATerwauling. A CAT scan revealed no obvious CATaracts inhis eye.

    Although not a CATacylsm, there is certainly a feeling that voter disenchanment will CATch on.
    Mr Turnbull CATegorically denied he read CATo as a student, tho he did admit reading CATcher in the rye.

  41. [Mr Turnbull CATegorically denied he read CATo as a student, tho he did admit reading CATcher in the rye.]
    And the Liberals are going to put him on a CATamaran and send him to Indonesia?

  43. Neilson easily the worst of the these three

    Newspoll & Galaxy are within normal volatility (eg Newspoll TPP is same as 4 weeks ago)

    But the AC’s gonna cause some problems

  44. [The result will come as a pleasant surprise to the Prime Minister, who recently said he expected to take a hit in the polls over the OzCar affair.]

    Heh.

  47. Why is it that the Liberal party, that supposedly hates red tape and government regulation, has forced the government to increase read tape and regulation:
    [A plan to reveal the home country of companies that buy Australian debt is unravelling just a week after it was forced on the Federal Government to put it in place.

    The West Australian understands Government bureaucrats are struggling to come up with a system that will conform with what has been demanded by the Parliament, not become overly expensive and actually reveal the details sought by the coalition.]
    http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/06/whered-those-dollars-come-from.html

    Who cares which country buys Australian debt. Australia is a mainly market, and internationalised economy!

  48. The state of the Federal Liberal Party is getting as bad as the state of the Liberal Party of Victoria…

    We dont deserve to get elected for a good while until we clean up our act, they all ought to be ashamed Menzies would think the lot of em are a disgrace!

  49. Well hopefully this last episode will be an end to the smear type tactics from the Coalition. It has taken a few years…but hopefully this will convince them to give it up.

  50. [We dont deserve to get elected for a good while until we clean up our act, they all ought to be ashamed Menzies would think the lot of em are a disgrace!]
    Your mob needs to stop nominating failed accountants and clapped out lawyers.

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