Morgan: 55-45

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

899 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. Here is my first question to the PB knowledgeables, the second is more of a quiz:

    How much do federal politicians from different parties hang out together? How well would say Jockey and Albanese know each other? How many times since Turnbull became opposition leader would he have sat down in a caffateria/cafe/office and had an in depth conversation with Rudd over coffee – probably with a minder each? Are they nicer or less nice to each other once the camera’s are off? If Dems and ALPers can hit it off there must be at least a bit of non-professional friendlyness.

  2. Well it’s my 99% view that Penny Wong is doing all right. She has the greens on one side pushing for no start because the start isn’t good enough, some Liberals who don’t want to start because it will hurt their feelings, other Liberals who can’t see why anyone wants to start, one independent who has a serious belief in fairies and has trouble with the concept of starting anything, and another who won’t start until the start is moved to the lower lakes.

    A better starter isn’t going to get it started sooner.

  3. fredn, what evidence is there that this is a “start”?

    This is the Government’s policy, formulated to protect and sandbag the industries that need to change if we have any chance of stopping climate change. It’s exactly the same policy the Liberals would be bringing in if they had won the election because they are as entertwined with the polluting industries as Labor.

  4. [How much do federal politicians from different parties hang out together? ]

    My observation, based on having worked in Parliament House on and off for five years, is, “not much.” They are civil to each other outside the chamber, but no more. Some backbenchers have friends on the “other side”, and most can work together on committees in reasonable harmony, but at ministerial level I think there is very little unofficial contact across the aisle at all. In the 1940s Menzies and Chifley would share a scotch in Chif’s office at the end of the sitting day, but I doubt anything like that could happen now. They are all much too busy for one thing, and surrounded by staff all the time. The media scrutiny is much more intense, and the “Queensberry rules” that used to maintain a clear distinction between private and public have broken down. Did Menzies know that Chif was having an affair with his secretary? Almost certainly. Would he have dreamt of telling a journalist about it? It would never have crossed his mind. Now, no-one trusts anyone not to leak against them, and of course the media will now run stuff they wouldn’t have touched 50 years ago. It does depend a bit on the personalities. Hawke, Peacock, Beazley, are fairly easy-going and gregarious types. Keating, Howard, much less so. Rudd not at all. The Libs really do hate Rudd with a passion, and it’s easy to see why – he has a very abrasive personality, and he always knows he’s the smartest kid in the class. So I very much doubt that Rudd and Turnbull have ever had a chat over coffee. as someone noted before, Turnbull could easily have *asked* Rudd in private if the Grech email was genuine, but it obviously never occurred to him to do so.

  5. Quiz question:

    My second cousin is a former councilor. When he visited he showed me a documentary from a community TV channel done in a language spoken by few about his time as a councilor representing the “BLANK National Party”. What is the name of the party?
    Clues:
    • It represents a minority group of which I am partially a member.
    • It mostly operates at the local and provincial levels but has one federal senator according to Wikipedia.
    • The party has seven (out of 55) seats in the BLANK provincial legislative.
    • It is in a type of coalition with the local Green party.
    • It is a member of the EFA.

  6. [The Libs really do hate Rudd with a passion, and it’s easy to see why – he has a very abrasive personality, and he always knows he’s the smartest kid in the class.]
    I think the fact Rudd went from a backbencher in 1998, to Prime Minister in 2007 annoys a lot of Liberals too, especially Malcolm Turnbull.

  7. From Poss’s Twitter:

    [PollyticsInteresting that Rudd said he will take a hit in the polls. Galaxy and Nielsen apparently out tomorrow (ALP informed of results late today)7 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  8. [PollyticsInteresting that Rudd said he will take a hit in the polls. Galaxy and Nielsen apparently out tomorrow (ALP informed of results late today)7 minutes ago from TweetDeck]

    That could mean either that he knows it’s bad and he’s lowering expectations, or he knows it’s good and wants it look even better.

  9. [How much do federal politicians from different parties hang out together?]

    besides the usual religious confreres, and members of various grps/organisations eg amnesty, there is no fraternal feeling

    that said, certain functions invariably drag opponents together-whether they sneak out the back for a chat and a smoke is unknown.

  10. [Have the polls ever gone down when Rudd has says “he’ll take a hit”?]

    Turnbull should try it.

    Unfortunately, the magic probably won’t work for him.

  11. Rudd on Rove looked pretty chipper for someone who thought he was going to take a hit in the polls. Relaxed and funny and usual daggy self on prime time- is Rove really allowed to say that the Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition is, and I quote, ”a lying sack of crap” – just asking.

  12. [besides the usual religious confreres, and members of various grps/organisations eg amnesty, there is no fraternal feeling]

    As I say, these operate mainly at backbench level. The higher up the hierarchy you go, the less fraternity there is. The Parliamentary Christian Fellowship is mainly Protestant and mainly Coalition, although Beazley Sr and Crean Sr were among its founders. There is some co-operation on things like the US-Australian Parliamentary Friendship Group. When members travel together – like Gillard, Brandis and Pyne at the moment – they presumably get on reasonably well.

  13. You’re right Oz, Turnbull has tried the tactic before.

    [Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull said his party’s stance may prove unpopular with voters but he was not willing to saddle future generations with massive debts by rubber-stamping the government’s plans.

    ‘Their package is too big,’ he said. ‘It’s too much money, too much debt at this time.

    ‘I know this is an unpopular thing to say. I know we’ll take a hit in the polls, but it’s the right and responsible thing to do.’ Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner said the government needed to act quickly to avoid a looming recession.]

    http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20090205-119618.html

  14. OZ
    [What is the name of the party?

    Be the Frisian National Party.]
    Correct! I am impressed. How did you know/ track down the info?
    According to what I could understand of the doco my second cousins major achievements as a councillor appeared to be getting some bilingual signs installed and incouraging large scale organic farming.

  15. What about cross bench – major party relations? Kerno and Evans was it? During QT I often see Mr X talking to either the Greens or the Opposition and he does a lot of joint press releases and being an independent he’d have to make friends or else he’d get lonely or whatever. He was in Adelaide’s Rundle Mall the other day with Hockey and my scum-bag local member whats-his-name but he probably wouldn’t know them at all really coz they are in the HofR.

  16. [What about cross bench – major party relations?]

    The Senate is a bit more collegiate than the Reps. It’s smaller, the leaders aren’t there to inflame party passions, it gets less media attention, and no-one has a majority so no-one can push party hostility too far. Chris Evans is an amiable chap who keeps the temperature down at QT, although Carr and Conroy are much more excitable.

  17. Interesting observation from Courtney Gibson:

    [courtney_gibsonThis 4 sec appearance on Laugh In, & his opponent’s refusal to do likewise, is credited with getting Nixon elected prez http://phaze.me/z82m2 minutes ago from web ]

  18. Rudd is just identifying himself as the victim in the Turn-bull-sh^t-emailgate scandal. Helps to ensure he is not labelled as a bully and helps him get the sympathy vote and further alienates Turnbull.

    Tom.

  19. If mud sticks it sticks not because there was really anything for it to stick about but because the media were prepared and implemented the smear. Even producing the mock email after being told it didn’t exist.

    But we shouldn’t be surprised by now…world wide the murdoch media is hated as dishonest and partisan and has been the subject of a documentary.

    OUTFOXED: Rupert Murdoch’s War on Journalism — Trailer
    (Outfoxed documentary about Fox News from producer/director Robert Greenwald )
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w39FnpuMRfo

    However…news print isn’t the only access people have to politics and politicians.

  20. entre nous, I did read your earlier post and I thank you for that. I was after a little more detail. I know there will be almost nothing in the papers tomorrow so it’s my fault for not tuning in.

    BTW there were at 5 murders in tonight’s Miss Marple which made it a little less violent than this week’s proceedings in the House of Reps.

  21. [How did Rudd on Rove go?]
    Fine, he just emphasised the “Turnbull is a fraud, but the government is getting back to work” theme of the last few days.
    [Did Bruno get involved?]
    No, his segment was earlier.

  22. Don’t forget the week in review on Order In The House on ABC TV at midnight EST. A week such as the one just gone doesn’t come around all that often.

  23. if the mud sticks from utegate, it won’t be because of the media’s help

    it will be because the issue has referenced stereo-type ideas that have a long term background in australian politics

    ie – you can’t trust the ALP with big business

    Not saying its a winner for the libs, just saying it will help bring the 2PP back towards 50/50

  24. [Not saying its a winner for the libs, just saying it will help bring the 2PP back towards 50/50]

    Squig
    You forgot the clincher

    In 2020
    🙂

  25. [Asked how Mr Rudd had performed throughout the scandal, only a third thought he had been “open and honest” while another 28 per cent assessed he had been “economical with the truth”.

    Eight per cent said he had been dishonest.

    But the numbers for Mr Turnbull were significantly worse. A third described his performance as “somewhat deceitful” and 17 per cent described him as “dishonest” during the entire scandal.]

  26. [The Senate is a bit more collegiate than the Reps. It’s smaller, the leaders aren’t there to inflame party passions, it gets less media attention]

    Interestingly I blame ’75 for destroying the collegiate atmosphere, especially in the Senate, what with the ‘toecutter’ an all.

    The reps lingered until daly/killen left.

    No more bridge games before party/gvt spills

  27. The damage caused to Turnbull and the Libs this week may not be reflected in the polls this week. Turnbull’s lying and double standards and baseless mud flinging might take time to perculate through the mind of the average swinging voter but it will happen with an occasional reference to it from Tanner and Julia once she’s back on board. Journalists will certainly be keen to get her take on the week she was absent.

    On top of that I am sure that the AFP report due by end July and police investigations will show Turnbull, Abertz and one or two others in a very poor light.

  28. As expected Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a direct hit and his integrity is leaking badly. Up until now people only thought Turnbull was smart arsed and arrogant. Now, with new added sleaze and dishonesty Malcolm is the complete package. If the cat business is true he’s probabbly alienated every measureable demographic.

    Quite an achievement.

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