Morgan: 55-45

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

899 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. Rudd never goes out of character in public either, so he’ll be all “can I say to Bruno” and “Can I invite Bruno to reflect” tonight, until Bruno goes mad.

  2. I thought this is what the Rudd Govt has been saying all along, namely you gotta to take the first step and it’s been long overdue. For which they have been criticised and crucified by the Oppositions, Greens and the Goons.

    [Climate bill shaped by compromise – So far, most of the major environmental groups are sticking with Obama. Most groups calculated that, in sum, the bill was worth moving, said Emily Figdor, the federal global warming policy director for Environment America.

    “We think there’s a lot of problems in the bill,” she said, but “we need to take that first step. We’re so long overdue.” ]

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-energy28-2009jun28,0,7474723.story?page=1

  3. [ Climate bill shaped by compromise – So far, most of the major environmental groups are sticking with Obama. Most groups calculated that, in sum, the bill was worth moving, said Emily Figdor, the federal global warming policy director for Environment America.

    “We think there’s a lot of problems in the bill,” she said, but “we need to take that first step. We’re so long overdue.” ]

    Bob Brown and his Fanclub on PB – Take note, your shrill opposition at all costs will mark you as the 2009 version of the Democrats.

  4. Finns

    That’s because it sounds a lot better coming from Obama and his team of Nobel Prize winners, than from Penny Wong.

    If Julia Gillard was Minister for CC, we wouldn’t be in this mess. Obama looks like he’s got an ETS up in 5 months. Rudd/Wong are still stuffing around after 18 months.

  5. [Finns – That’s because it sounds a lot better coming from Obama and his team of Nobel Prize winners, than from Penny Wong. ]

    Diog, are you trying to be:

    1. Funny?
    2. Sexist?
    3. Racist?

  6. [Diog, are you trying to be:

    1. Funny?
    2. Sexist?
    3. Racist?]

    All 3 and add eternally Stupid as well – methinks the Green brigade have a huge chip on their sghoulder about Rudd/Wong – they prefer the Hippie collective of Brown/Milne to dictate the debate.

  8. [If Julia Gillard was Minister for CC, we wouldn’t be in this mess.]

    What a silly comment. Why would Gillard do any better with Barnaby Joyce or Dennis Jensen than Wong has done?

  9. Finns

    I said Julia would be better. That rules out sexist.
    I said Obama was better. That rules out racist.

    Try intellectual elitist and next time. 🙂

  10. [Rudds ETS passed the HOR didn’t it? same as Obama’s. Neither one has passed the Senate yet.]
    Yes. Except our Senate voted to delay voting on it until August.

    I think Obama’s aim is to have it pass the Congress by the end of the year, hopefully before Copenhagen which is in the 2nd week of December.

  11. Gillard would be doing a lot better with the main people who matter, who are the Australian people. She would also be doing a lot better with the Liberals.

  14. [Gillard would be doing a lot better with the main people who matter, who are the Australian people. She would also be doing a lot better with the Liberals.]

    You’ve no evidence for either of those assertions, and I think the second is quite wrong. The Libs hate Gillard much more than they hate Wong. It’s not about personalities anyway. It’s about the fact that the Coalition fogies are in denial about climate change, and Turnbull doesn’t have enough authority to whip them into line. On top of that the Greens are playing holier-than-thou and Xenophon is playing chase-the-headline.

  15. [Gillard would be doing a lot better with the main people who matter, who are the Australian people.]

    Diog, methinks you dont like Wong is because she’s also from SA and you hate everything to do with SA.

  16. The big difference between Australia and the US is that in the US, the Democrats control both Houses and do not have a rump of Greens in the Senate that control the balance of power with Independents.

    What do we have here in Australia again?

  18. [Diog, methinks you dont like Wong is because she’s also from SA and you hate everything to do with SA.]

    Yet he lives there. If he hates the place so much, why doesn’t he emigrate to another state ?

  19. [714 – Spot on Psephos.]

    I’ll bet he won’t get the same type of vitriol if you or I said exactly the same thing Gary.

  23. [I’ll bet he won’t get the same type of vitriol if you or I said exactly the same thing Gary.]
    Now that you’ve said that Frank Dio had better take cover. LOL. We can’t be right can we?

  24. [Now that you’ve said that Frank Dio had better take cover. LOL. We can’t be right can we?]
    OOPS – Psephos had better take cover.

  25. [Yes. Except our Senate voted to delay voting on it until August.]

    Technically it didn’t. It filibustered other debate which had the effect of delaying final consideration of the bills until August.

    It also set up a time line for the final consideration of the bills in August (to be completed by the end of the first week back).

  26. Bob1234
    [ I hope MHS stays, then we can pick up Stuart, Unley, Morphett, probably even blue-ribbon Heysen!]
    I can only hope.

  27. Is there any truth to the rumour that Tony Abbott talks in his sleep?

    It is rumoured that he was heard to be repeating ” I move, that the member for Sturt be no further heard ” constantly, in what some have decribed as a nightmare, others have reported the incident as divine intervention. 🙂

  28. The Libs don’t actually care one way or the other about the CPRS or climate change. All they care about is saving their miserable arses from getting another well-deserved kicking from the voters. Delaying the first vote on the CPRS until August makes it all but impossible for Rudd to spring a DD on them this year, and that was their only priority. Their next priority will be avoiding a DD in March, and I think for that reason they’ll cave and let the CPRS bill pass in November or December.

  30. Finns

    I’m very fond of SA. It’s the Athens of the South. 😀

    Adam

    Of course I don’t have any evidence for those assertions; they are opinions like 99% of things said on this site. The fact that you feel the need to point it out during this argument but not in the other 99% of the time is quite telling.

    Penny Wong and Julia Gillard are chalk and cheese. People sit up and take notice of Gillard and almost everyone I know switches off when Wong starts speaking. She is so bland, dour and negative that she seems to be Ruddock’s understudy.

  31. [She is so bland, dour and negative that she seems to be Ruddock’s understudy.]
    The intricacies of carbon trading is a pretty bland subject.

  32. Cry me a River of Crocodile Tears, Malcolm.

    [Mr Turnbull complained that the government had it in for him from the start. They have called for him to resign and raised issues from Mr Turnbull’s past since the email affair broke.

    “All they have been flinging against me, in fact they’ve been doing it ever since I became leader, is one smear after another.”

    Mr Turnbull said the Government had been “vicious and personal” in their “fear and smear” attacks on him.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25702654-952,00.html

  33. [Of course I don’t have any evidence for those assertions; they are opinions like 99% of things said on this site.]

    That’s quite true. But the remaining 1% of things said here are the things which I say, which are not opinions but facts, and you should remember that.

  34. Adam
    [But, paradoxically, if the CPRS is blocked by the Green-Lib alliance and we have an early election on the issue of climate change, the Green vote will in my view go down, because the vote will be polarised between those who want action on climate change, who will vote Labor, and those who don’t, who will vote Lib-Nat. The Greens, having blocked action on climate, will fall through the middle. Their core vote will support their stand, but no-one else will.]
    I disagree totally and you know full well there’s no Green-Lib Alliance, you may as well talk about the ALP-Lib Alliance. If the COALition vote no it will be for completely different reasons to the Greens. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

    A significant % of the population realize that there is a big difference between talking about climate change and doing something about climate change!

    The voters may well be polarized between wanting to act on CC or not acting but enough people will realize that the ALP plan leads to oblivion for there to be a swing to parties that will actually act, ie the Greens, democrats, climate change coalition, socialist alliance, libs-for-forests etc – the foremost of which is the Greens. There are not two poles on this issue anyway, there are three: Those that believe in science, those that pretend to believe in science but refuse to act on those purported beliefs because they are stuck in the old ways (something which would seem quite irrational if they were sincere) and those that deny the science. The voters will spread Green, ALP and Nationals/FF respectively. As has been mentioned earlier if 30% or so want tougher action then that’s enough for a swing to the Greens and based on the polls there probably will be.

  35. [As has been mentioned earlier if 30% or so want tougher action then that’s enough for a swing to the Greens and based on the polls there probably will be.]

    Has there been independent polling on whether people think the CPRS (a) goes too far (b) is about right, or (c) doesn’t go far enough?

  36. Psephos

    Fortunately I still remember your “aether” comment so even your infallible self is only batting at 99%. And I’m not so uncharitable as to have stored up your predictions for the Democrat Primary… 😀

  37. [The voters may well be polarized between wanting to act on CC or not acting but enough people will realize that the ALP plan leads to oblivion]
    No, not having an ETS at all will lead us to oblivion.

    Once we have an ETS in place, then each election will include a debate on whether or not to increase the targets (and thus lower the cap).

    Without an ETS, we have absolutely no mechanism to reduce our emissions.

  38. [I’m very fond of SA. It’s the Athens of the South.]

    Diog, yes, beautiful one day, riots the next:

    [Fear and loathing in Athens – May 14th 2009 | ATHENS – Once hospitable Greeks are turning against immigrants. THE ancient Greek tradition of hospitality to strangers is dying out. Twenty years ago Greeks welcomed more than 600,000 Albanians who walked over the border to start a new life.

    Thanos Kourkoulis of Greece’s Anti-Racism Movement, who runs a school where volunteers teach Greek to immigrants, says tensions are rising. “Immigrants feel more intimidated, Greeks feel more at risk,” he says. Human-rights groups and local residents oppose plans to use an old military base outside Athens as a detention centre. Yet the flow of arrivals shows no sign of slowing.]

    http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13652874

  39. [The Libs don’t actually care one way or the other about the CPRS or climate change.]

    I think there’s some Libs that care and some that CC deniers. I think there are some Labor MP’s that care and some that are CC deniers.

    There’s nothing in Labor’s policy that demonstrates that they actually care about CC or the environment, just that they recognise people (from some wacky reason) are worried about it and they have to give the impression of responding to that.

  41. [Has there been independent polling on whether people think the CPRS (a) goes too far (b) is about right, or (c) doesn’t go far enough?]

    There’s been a lot of questions in Essential over the past year.

  43. When you have all the worlds scientists screaming at you, you cannot state that you’re in line with what the science dictates would be good policy.
    FF have God on their side, the Greens have science on their side and the ALP/COALition have the almighty dollar on their side. For now the $ is in charge but that is not sustainable.

  45. [FF have God on their side, the Greens have science on their side and the ALP/COALition have the almighty dollar on their side.]
    If the Greens had science on their side they would support nuclear power and genetically modified food and drugs.

  46. [I think there are some Labor MP’s that care and some that are CC deniers.

    Name one Labor MP who is a CC denier.]

    Bidgood??

  48. Psephos

    I believe you told us that TS Eliot could have said “aetherised” rather the “etherised” in Prufrock. It ended in dark muttering.

    I can’t find the poll but I’m sure that Australians wanted a bigger target on average. But more than that, they don’t want to hear about the ETS any more. They overwhelmingly want it passed.

    Turnbull knows he’s on a huge loser if he continues to obstruct the ETS, except on Andrew Bolt’s denier blog.

    [But a national Auspoll of more than 1,000 people, on behalf of the Climate Institute, suggests this could be a damaging position for the coalition to take.

    More than three quarters of respondents want the opposition’s immediate support for the emissions trading scheme, the poll shows.

    But despite this, around 60 per cent say they are undecided about which major party would better lead the charge on climate change.

    Twenty-seven per cent voted Labor, down from 32 per cent in February, while 14 per cent supported the coalition, up from 12 per cent.]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/817347/australians-support-ets-poll

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