Morgan: 55-45

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

899 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  3. [ShowsOn the ALP need to stop nominating bullyboy union bosses or left wing eco lawyers….]
    Yeah it is really damaging the federal government having all those unionists in there.

  5. So many choice quotes!
    [Senior Liberals said last night that if parliament had been sitting this week there would have been immediate moves to replace Mr Turnbull, probably with NSW frontbencher and Opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey.

    According to a Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s job as Opposition Leader has suffered the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history.]

  7. [But the biggest problem for Mr Turnbull is the fall in voter satisfaction with the way he is doing is job – from 44 per cent two weeks ago to just 25 per cent last weekend, while dissatisfaction rose 21 points to 58 per cent.

    This is the single biggest fall in voter satisfaction for an opposition leader in Newspoll history and puts Mr Turnbull at the same low level as Kim Beazley and Dr Nelson when they lost their party’s leadership to Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull respectively.

    The Newspoll also showed that voters, by a ratio of 2:1, did not believe Brisbane car dealer John Grant received preferential treatment because of his friendship with the Prime Minister.

    A total of 52 per cent of those surveyed said they did not believe Mr Turnbull’s claims, while only 24 per cent said they thought they were true. Of Coalition supporters, 29 per cent said they did not think Mr Turnbull’s claims were true.]

  10. [They arent representative of society that’s all Shows…]
    Yes, they are all robots that are delivered into the community by storks.

    I don’t think lawyers and accountants are “representative of society” either.

  13. [probably with NSW frontbencher and Opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey.]
    This is funny considering that Hockey came across like a total buffoon last week both in parliament and on Lateline. Remember, Hockey said on Lateline that he didn’t know if the email was fake, here is him on Lateline:

  14. [Yes, they are all robots that are delivered into the community by storks.]

    Shows

    Goddammit, now everyone knows.
    😉

  16. [from 44 per cent two weeks ago to just 25 per cent last weekend, while dissatisfaction rose 21 points to 58 per cent. ]
    Australians have a sense of fair play, they don’t think using fake documents to score political points is fair. So many of them have changed their opinions of Turnbull accordingly.
    [Turnbull may have thought this 6 week break would have saved his bacon but it appears he’s done for…]
    I don’t see the point with the Liberals changing to Hockey, he won’t do any better than Turnbull, but he doesn’t have hundreds of millions to bankroll the Liberal election campaign.

    The Liberals may as well stick with Turnbull, and effectively charge him millions of dollars for the right to be their candidate.

  18. [Looks like it’ll be a Sunrise election after all….]
    Who is going to pay for the Liberal election campaign? You guys need Turnbull, he may be a hopeless politician, but he has the money to pay for the campaign by himself, and he as the ego to motivate him to do it.

  19. In the Australian’s comment on the Newspoll results linked to by Oz #861, the Fairfax poll results are also mentioned. It is the first time that I recall that News Ltd have referenced a Fairfax poll. The message must have passed down from Rupert that Malcolm is persona non grata

  20. How do the mechanics of a leadership challeng work? Can it be done when parliament is not sitting with MP’s voting from a distance? What electoral system do they use with three or more candidates – Optional preferencial voting?
    Do they get to find out who the winner of the ‘leader’ ballot is before voting for the ‘deputy leader’ or is it done in one go?

  22. [How do the mechanics of a leadership challeng work? Can it be done when parliament is not sitting with MP’s voting from a distance?]
    As far as I know there are no proxy votes. The person must be present in the party room, on the day, in order to vote. If they can’t get there in time then they don’t get to vote.

    The Australian article says a challenge is unlikely this week because some Liberals are overseas, e.g. Costello and Pyne.

  23. How much did Turnbull donate last time? Would he still chuck a lowsy couple of Mill spare change from his back pocket if he was just an opposition spokesperson?

  24. [How do the mechanics of a leadership challeng work? Can it be done when parliament is not sitting with MP’s voting from a distance?]

    I’d be assuming that they would callfor a party room meeting in the normal matter, but because they aren’t sitting, all the MP’s would be required to fly into Canberra especially for that meeting – when the WA Libs had a similar situation with Paul Omodei, it was during a Parliamentry Recess from memory.

  25. If Turnbull is dumped as leader, don’t expect him to hang around on the back bench. He could quit immediately forcing a by-election that the Liberals don’t want, that’s the kind of egotist I think he is.

    Secondly, I think Barnaby Joyce and Warren Truss should be allowed to vote in a Liberal leadership ballot because they are both party leaders in their respective chambers, and they are both technically Liberals as well as Nationals.

  26. [The Australian article says a challenge is unlikely this week because some Liberals are overseas, e.g. Costello and Pyne.]

    I’ll bet these gentlemen are getting quite a few calls on thier mobiles atm 🙂

  27. [I’ll bet these gentlemen are getting quite a few calls on thier mobiles atm]
    I think Costello is in the “anyone but myself or Malcolm” camp.

    Pyne, I’m not so sure. I guess he will vote for whoever can help him become deputy leader.

    Whatever happens, the Liberals should take the opportunity to dump Julie Bishop as deputy leader.

  31. [Who are the numbers men in the Coalition?]
    Isn’t Senator Ronaldson Turnbull’s numbers man?

    I have no idea who Hockey’s would be. If it is Pyne then Turnbull will win.

  32. So if they want to have the vote before the net sitting they all have to haul their butts off to Canberra. Thats a bit harsh on the poor dears.

    Although the period between now and the challenge is ‘waisted time’ limbo when there attacks on the ALP won’t get traction. Perhaps its a good thing for them that they have some time to think – they can have a good long hard look at themselves and ask themselves what they want to be. Maybe with the extra time they won’t rush into any poor decisions but will get the best candidate.
    I always though that would be Turnbull but Costello used to make me laugh also. Abott isn’t stupid, there’s something almost human about him, which is a rare feat for a Tory but he is also a wacko scarey fruitloop. Hockey is kinda cute in an ugly sort of way – he reminds me of a lot of Tory’s I know personally and he may therefore be able to shore up the base which is what is needed right now. Pyne is also a typical Tory but he’s more like Dracula, whereas Hockey is a more innocent vampire (Tory in this analogy) like ‘The Count” from Sesomy Street.

  35. Just when we thought that Australia might get started on its ETS, as well.

    Now who knows how the splits involved in choosing a new leader will interact with the splits on ETS support.

    I guess that the new leader will still want to avoid a DD trigger unless they look like having a wonderful honeymoon period as leader.

  36. THM the fact of the matter is the Greens lack a real leader…

    They need another Joschka Fischer….

    I think it is a monty for a CDU/CSU + FDP Coalition Government…

  37. Whatever, I am severe. And the attitude is about laxity.

    Just in case, I would like to remind anyone who cares, that I am and remain a Labor leaner.

    But why, may I ask, is Kevin involved in this foolish thing, the free second hand ute.

    Sure, in pre election mode, ‘all hands on deck’. A battered car will do.

    But should it not have gone to the parking lot, immediately after the election.

    Like, who if anyone, is using it now?

    Have not noticed it in Parliament press stops/drive offs.

  38. [Now who knows how the splits involved in choosing a new leader will interact with the splits on ETS support. ]
    Interesting point. In order to be more popular than Turnbull, the next Liberal leader must support the CPRS legislation (which Turnbull is likely to do eventually). But if a Liberal leadership candidate says that they will instruct the party to vote for the CPRS, they probably won’t get enough votes to be elected leader.

  40. Jeez, I take a few hours off to watch a couple of good movies (Proof and AVP-R) and the world’s turned upside down!

    What a lovely way to come back to earth.

  41. I wasn’t talking about Turnbull being in trouble. It’s Sloppy Joe as the leadership fave (bar Peter “Lucky” Costello).

    Can it be true? Is there really a God?

  45. [Hockey is the worst leadership option except for all the others.]
    I don’t understand what Hockey offers that Turnbull doesn’t. Less arrogance? Maybe. But also a lot less dollars.

  47. No, I think he’d be the worst. The man’s a total buffoon. Doesn’t know anything about tactics, just blusters.

    At least Abbott came through last week with some (not much, I’ll admit, but some) of his dignity intact. He stayed cool (when you take into account his usual rabid standards) and held up his end if not for a brilliant innings, at least for a respectable knock. But Hockey? A disaster, now and to come.

    What am I writing? Abbott as Leader? Preposterous… but there you are.

    Nah… can’t happen. Turnbull will stay, but with a full harness and leash araldited onto his mouth.

  48. I like how Glenn Milne sagely advices Malcolm Turnball about putting up and shutting up, only to say that “Stories are beginning to filter through” with regards to the Government allegedly not taking too kindly to adverse media or criticism (I don’t know many Governments that do, but I digress…).

    Does anyone else find this a tad ironic? Maybe Glenn should follow some of his own advice about putting up!?

    It’s a funny old world.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25703955-33435,00.html

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