Morgan: 55-45

The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

899 comments on “Morgan: 55-45”

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  1. Finns I think Kev better not be going to any of Papi’s villa parties with the 18yrs old young ladies, the media would go ape :mrgreen:

  2. Will Turnbull’s dissatisfaction rating exceed satisfaction rating in the next Newspoll? I’m expecting it to significantly do so.

  3. [When did Turnbull become involved with this frau?.]

    GG, new email scandal?

    Turnbull’s new German girlfriend? Fraulein Merkel?

  4. If (to use Tomtfab’s favourite word) the AFP pass evidence to the DPP and they decide to charge Turnbull with an offence with a penalty of 12+ months in prison. Will he stand down as leader while the charges are heard?

    Then after he is found not guilty, after a lengthy court case and after the next election, he resumes the leadership.

    It may be the only way to salvage his political career. 🙂

  5. Psephos @ 624 BTW – and this is worth saying, because of the increasing comments are anything to go by …

    That SBS “Save the planet, go veg” ad is a potential disaster for the Greens. Here, in a major beef and pork area, it’s the subject of ever louder pub conversations which, somewhere between profanities, go something like “Now the Greens are trying to rob us of meat and our cattle industry”, with not just a few saying “First they want to shut down our coal industry, now its our meat industries. That’s it for the Greens as far as I’m concerned.” Only a fool gets between an Aussie and his/her T-bone, pork chops etc … and with pork come the rants about Canadian imports. A relative who drive taxis and limos (but doesn’t watch SBS) heard about it from “fares” – multiple & none of them happy.

    I assume that it’s more likely have been funded by a PETA or SDA or a multi-national oil-seed producer hoping its oil-seed and bean-based fake-food patents will wipe out all those unpatentable natural products like meat, milk, butter etc (especially now the evidence against fake foods, esp fake dairy foods, is mounting); but it doesn’t take much more than a burgeoning whispering campaign to put paid to Green chances in the meat-producing states.

  12. How can this make sense?

    Abetz discusses an email with Grech, and notes down some of its contents.
    Later that afternoon, in a senate hearing, Abetz asks Grech if he has seen an email answering to that description. Grech says he might have but can’t be sure.
    Abetz leaves it at that.

    Abetz must have a very very short memory or happily accepts that Grech has.

  13. vera @651 said “Finns I think Kev better not be going to any of Papi’s villa parties with the 18yrs old young ladies, the media would go ape :mrgreen:

    And how. New Idea, Womans Day and so on …. Then there’d be the drooling interviews – oooh wonder how Red Kerry will perform, wot! Paul B, Tony Jones … Red blooded envy-green Libs & Nats drooling … Newspoll PPM ratings through the roof … Essential R’s “What is your reaction to Kevin’s time at the villa parties?” (Tho “Pretty much wasted on Kev the Rev” would probably get the most votes) Malcolm accusing him in Parliament of corruption because he’s being offered squillions by neighbours and ALP members to carry his suitcases …

    Yeah! I’m luvin the idea!

  15. ruawake,

    The only good thing to come out of this emailgate nonsense is all the free publicity for John Grant. I hope he makes a motzer.

  18. Dr Good 662

    Good point – IMO that pretty much proves Grech knew what he was doing in this i.e. he was part of it and was not duped unknowingly.

  20. Turnbull had a reliable source of documents – some of them “cabinet in confidence”, yet he managed to burn this source.

    Surely his fellow rabble can see how dumb this was?

  21. As a vegetarian who is only too aware that our beef industry contributes more GHG emissions per year than our entire transport industry I was delighted to see the Greens run those don’t buy beef adds on SBS. No doubt they will be unpopular with those in the offending industry, just as early claims that smoking was harmful were unpopular with tobacco farmers. Still, if we never face unpleasant truths we won’t solve this or any other social problem that involves vested interests. Plus given that the entire rural food production creates less than 3% of GDP and employs less than 5% of the workforce, I’m sure that the greens will gain more votes than they lose.

    Xanthippe says that Socrates should get back to working on his thesis. Bye everyone!

  26. From Twitter

    KevinRuddPMOk. So its only a couple of hours to go before I’m on Rove. With Bruno! Any ideas guys about how I can get out of this one? KRudd
    about 2 hours ago from web

  29. They’re not trying to ban meat-eating, ruawake, just reduce consumption.

    Much like the ALP is trying to do with alcohol, which is why I’m completely re-evaluating my relationship with them.

  32. Sorry I was getting the Supreme Master Ching Hai International Association , confused with the Greens.

    But the Go Green on their ads is not helpfull to Bob and his clan. 😉

  34. Sacha Baron Cohen is married to an Aussie, Isla Fisher. Rudd’s problem is that SBC never goes out of character in public so he’ll be all Bruno tonight. I don’t know how he agreed to it. Sounds nuts to me.

  35. [As someone who’s interested in the ontology of language, I’m sure you know about mirror neurons as they’re all the rage ATM but just in case I’ll provide a link.]
    I think the first time I heard of mirror neurons was in this book:
    http://www.amazon.com/Moving-Image-Theory-Ecological-Considerations/dp/0809327465/ref=wl_it_dp?ie=UTF8&coliid=I1L9VEIHZ4GT0U&colid=164VELQFBBBWX

    Some of the essays try to explain how visual media that we know is not real (i.e. fiction films) can generate real emotional responses, i.e. crying, laughing, fear etc. Most old theories say we “suspend disbelief”, i.e. we actively pretend that the fictional events taking place on the screen are real. But this notion is being challenged by naturalistic theories, that are in part based on research into mirror neurons, that suggest we can actually generate real emotional responses from things we know aren’t real.

    I had no idea that a tentative connection had been found between autism and lack of mirror neuron function. If that connection is supported in other research, hopefully it will inform better ways to teach children with autism.

  36. New CBS polls

    85% of adults want either fundamental changes to the health care system or want it rebuilt.
    59% feel that the government will do a better job at providing medical coverage than private insurance.
    57% feel the Democratic party is more likely to improve the health care system, versus only 18% with the Republicans.

    WASHINGTON, April 6 (UPI) — About 57 percent of U.S. voters favor a military response to eliminate North Korea’s missile-launching capability, a poll released Monday indicates.

    So, Americans want social democracy at home, hawkish policies abroad – just what I think!

  37. [Sorry I was getting the Supreme Master Ching Hai International Association , confused with the Greens.

    But the Go Green on their ads is not helpfull to Bob and his clan. 😉 ]

    Which our Green Brethern fail to realise that in Voter Land, any attempt to force the populus to punish the farmers will backfire badly.

    But maybe it is part of a grand plot to make eating Tofu Steaks mandatory 🙂

  38. Frank

    Will Bob endorse the Supreme Master Ching Hai or will he distance his party from these vegan froot loops. 🙂

  40. [based on research into mirror neurons, that suggest we can actually generate real emotional responses from things we know aren’t real.]

    Does this explain the effectiveness of the Ramachandran treatment for amputees suffering from phantom pain? A person who had had a hand amputated was suffering excruciating phantom pain in the missing hand. But when he put his arms into a box lined with mirrors which created the visual illusion that he had two intact hands, the pain stopped. His conscious mind knew that he had only one hand, but clearly another part of his brain believed the illusory visual image.

  42. [85% of adults want either fundamental changes to the health care system or want it rebuilt.]
    They could do a lot worse than just copying our Medicare system.

    I heard on Lateline that the U.S. spends 14.5% of GDP on health care, but only 68% of people have coverage.

    In Australia we spend 9% of GDP on health care, and have 100% coverage.

  44. Professor Peter Doherty on ABC2 Fora is comparing Climate Change denial to people who deny that HIV causes AIDS.

  45. I think Australians eating kangaroo meat rather than tofu is better for the planet.

    I’ve given up tofu, having found it hard to guarantee that it is not made with GM soya.

    The kangaroo tastes nicer too as well as being gentler on our land than either farming soya or beef. Coles kangaroo meat gets imported to WA from SA which is a saving on transport compared to soya from Qld.

  48. Adam

    From that Nature article.

    [The mirror mechanism probably also forms the neurophysiological basis for ‘mirror therapy’ (the word ‘mirror’ being used here in its literal sense), which has been shown to improve upper- limb function in patients with stroke.]

    Atul Gawande has a great article about mirror therapy here in the New Yorker. Personally, I’m not convinced mirror neurons account for mirror therapy’s success but we’ll find out eventually.

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/06/30/080630fa_fact_gawande/?currentPage=all

  49. [ Rudd’s problem is that SBC never goes out of character in public so he’ll be all Bruno tonight.

    I heard him do it on NPR one time.]

    It is sort of like the singer Divine who would never do interviews in character, but would only perform as such.

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