The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).
UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.
Two news nuggets to go:
• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.
Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.
Wonder if Joe was sloppy enough to leave a message on Grech’s answer machine on the weekend? Something like ‘ keep your trap shut or i’ll come over and sit on you’ 😉
I’d vote for Phil if i was in Brunswick…hope he wins and not the Greens…
Good that Pearce has gone that’s another seat to get new blood into…
[The Age has been told Mr Grech was the Opposition’s source as well as the source for News Ltd journalist Steve Lewis, who asserted the email existed.]
Oh dear, the AFP suspects that HE made the email, and HE was the one who showed it to the media and the opposition!
If that is true, he is completely stuffed, not only will he lose his job he could be charged with all sorts of things.
[Good that Pearce has gone that’s another seat to get new blood into…]
Last year we were told that Pearce WAS an example of Liberal new blood!
Were you told that by me?
He’s 46 yes that is youngish but we could get a 30 year old to replace him 😀
Aston is a safe seat even if there was a by-election we’d hold it easy but.
This is looking like a big investigative job for 4 Corners …
[Aston is a safe seat even if there was a by-election we’d hold it easy but.]
You almost lost it at the by-election…
That list of newspaper headlines is interesting.
Here’s another.
I was driving back from the far far north of SA having just heard on radio that the e-mail was found and fake and stopped at a deli in Liberal party heartland selling the local newspaper the ‘Northern Argus’ which had the front page headline:
“$11.5 million stimulus package for far north schools”
And continued with details like ‘this school got $2 million for a library, this school got $2 million for something else, this school got …..” and so on.
Not a bad day for the ALP.
FYI the Senate has begun. House to start in another 90 minutes.
[I’d vote for Phil if i was in Brunswick…hope he wins and not the Greens…]
He’s a socialist!!!
[Good that Pearce has gone that’s another seat to get new blood into…]
He’s young and only came in in 2001! Sheesh! Do you like revolving doors in the Liberal Party? 😀
[He’s 46 yes that is youngish but we could get a 30 year old to replace him]
Well wasn’t he on the backbench when Nelson was leader? And he was shifted to the front I guess cos he voted for Turnbull in both ballots?
You got to love the Senate, they are currently debating whether or not to debate the CPRS bills.
[Meanwhile, Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey has revealed he rang Mr Grech at the weekend.
Mr Grech worked for Mr Hockey for a short time several years ago, but Mr Hockey says he hasn’t spoken to him for about two years.
He says he tried to get in touch with Mr Grech on Saturday.
“I sought out his mobile phone number and rang and left a message to say ‘I hope you’re OK, take care of yourself’ and that is the only time I have attempted to contact him in years,” he said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/23/2605642.htm
Hockey has contradicted what he said earlier when he denied having any contact with Grech for years on AM.
If the Feds are any good they will already have a big chart on the wall and be drawing lines between all possible players. Grech, a possible Mr/Ms X in Treasury, Lewis & his wife, Hockey & his wife (Crosby), Costello, Pearce, etc, etc.
The Libs “dirt unit” has probably not been disbanded at all and has probably been working overtime since the election. I would be tempted to have a detailed look there too. All supposition, mind, but all worth a close examination.
BB121 – Fantastic. A PBer linked Farr’s Friday article so I read it. Was a bit stunned by it because he has been relatively fair on Sky Agenda & Insiders lately. As you say he got conned into joining the bandwagon.
And Lewis and NewsLtd. should not be allowed to get away with it. Rudd needs to keep the punters aware that Murdoch mob are madhatters.
Great work. I’ll even link to his site today to see your work it in all its glory.
Sorry, I left out Turnbull. He has lines drawn away from him in multiple directions, especially from his office.
Only supposition, mind!
Come to think of it – Ruddie is a clever little devil and will score very well out of this inquiry by AFP – shows he got the guts to go after things which defame Labor and thats good.
May get rid of a lot of future problems in one hit.
I heard Hockey say this a.m. that until last weekend he hadn’t spoken to Grech in 18 months. The next interview changed it to 2 years.
Turnbull, in talking to AM, said that he has had many conversations with Grech since the election. Interesting, isn’t it. I hope Grattan is right and I will then have to take back my comment that I felt a bit sorry for Grech and his health.
Forget the supposition Scorpio – it looks glaringly dangerous for him. As somebody else said earlier Turnbull has only said that no Lib Party pollies were involved.
A clever statement by a far too clever lawyer/merchant banker.
[THE Spanish-style home of besieged Treasury official Godwin Grech was attacked with eggs overnight.
The Daily Telegraph reports Mr Grech’s front screen-door and pristine white walls were covered in egg yolk, and eggshells are littered on the door and slated entrance.
The report of the attacks came as Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull, who had been standing firm against Labor’s calls for the Prime Minister to resign, said he had relied upon Mr Grech’s testimony last Friday to a Senate committee. ]
Looks suspiciously like the Young Libs are a bit unhappy that their main trump card in the scam failed in his mission!
[A clever statement by a far too clever lawyer/merchant banker.]
Well, there haven’t been too many of them lately. More like a pile of very silly comments.
Here goes Fielding…
Oh god, not Fielding. After one and a half Senate terms, he’s still completely out of his depth. The sooner the next election puts him out of his misery, the better.
I would think Young Labor fanatics would be leaving “Thank-You” cards at Grech’s house. He has pretty much guaranteed the Libs will lose the next election. If you follow the Lindsay timeline and subsequent legal action the trials will be occurring around the time of the next election. Early or late election, the Liberal goose is cooked.
[Turnbull has only said that no Lib Party pollies were involved. ]
That beggars belief. He is probably banking on all tracks having been covered comprehensivly but he himself seems to be backpedalling and changing his story continually so there is a fair chance that once a link or two in the chain is exposed, the whol sorry mess may come crumbling down and take a number of players down together.
This is where the media should be focussing all their efforts, the Libs are toast and not worth any effort to prop up now. They could be on the crusp of the biggest political story in Australia’s history. They are so far being found wanting!
The Senate is currently voting to delay debating the CPRS. It looks like delaying it will win with the support of Xenophon and Fielding but not the Greens.
[Oh god, not Fielding. After one and a half Senate terms, ]
Fielding is still in his first term, he was elected in 2004, took his seat in 2005.
[I would think Young Labor fanatics would be leaving “Thank-You” cards at Grech’s house. He has pretty much guaranteed the Libs will lose the next election.]
Well, not if the AFP investigation proves that Grech had something to do with creating the email. And not if the AFP proves he knew the email was a fake when he referred to it in the committee last Friday.
[I would think Young Labor fanatics would be leaving “Thank-You” cards at Grech’s house. He has pretty much guaranteed the Libs will lose the next election.]
Not that they were going to win the next election anyway… but what on earth are you smoking?
[Fielding is still in his first term, he was elected in 2004, took his seat in 2005.]
Oops, guilty of misuse of terminology. But you know what I meant 😉
[The Senate is currently voting to delay debating the CPRS. It looks like delaying it will win with the support of Xenophon and Fielding but not the Greens.]
Rudd may be late to Q. Time then. A quick trip to the GG…
Turnbull is running up the white flag. Probably as a result of pressure in the Party Room Meeting to clean up his mess.
He has stated he is prepared to do a “mutual” apology with Rudd.
Fat chance of that happening. Why would Rudd want to apologise to Turnbull. Turnbull has just put Rudd through an excruciating week, threatened his job and the Government.
This is just a ploy by Turnbull to try and get himself of the hook. Rudd has done nothing wrong and now has the chance to play him like a Marlin until his credibility is totally exhausted and will then hoist him up on the petard!
Shows on 173,
Incorrect. Fielding is in the 2nd cycle of 6 years, the senators elected in 2007 took their seats in 2008. His term expires on 30 June 2011. Next election will (hopefully) be his last
Polyquats 168 – Turnbull is being clever. He is just saying ‘no Liberal politician’. He specifically left out no Liberal staffer or adviser or sympathiser so if any of those are involved he can say that he never said they were not – thinks it will keep him in the clear.
It may have at first but I think it has now gone too far with all the press front pages today. They are mad at him.
[Well, not if the AFP investigation proves that Grech had something to do with creating the email. And not if the AFP proves he knew the email was a fake when he referred to it in the committee last Friday.]
Why not? Labor supporters wouldn’t be worried about it. Grech is currently the gift that keeps on giving.
I would have thought disgruntled Young Libs would be the likely suspects.
Forgot my quote for my post @ 178.
[But Mr Turnbull defended his actions saying the Opposition had acted “reasonably and responsibly” by basing its accusations on evidence a Treasury official – Godwin Grech – gave to a Senate inquiry on Friday.
“We were entitled to rely on what he said, but if he’s wrong then the case against Mr Rudd is not there.”
Mr Turnbull said he would only apologise to the Prime Minister over the incident if Mr Rudd apologised to him.
“I’ll apologise … for saying he misled the Parliament when he apologises to me for saying I had a hand in fabricating this email,” he said.
“We can have mutual apologies. I’d be delighted to do that.”]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25675742-5005962,00.html
Senators do six-year terms, and Fielding is four years into his first term. This is the second Parliament during which he has been a Senator, but that’s not the same thing.
[Incorrect. Fielding is in the 2nd cycle of 6 years, the senators elected in 2007 took their seats in 2008. His term expires on 30 June 2011. Next election will (hopefully) be his last]
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=(Id:handbook/allmps/e4r);rec=0;
[Parliamentary Service
Elected to the Senate for Victoria 2004 (term began 1.7.2005).]
There is no such thing as “2nd cycle”, there are just terms, Fielding has been elected once, he is in his first term as a Senator for Victoria.
Your answer itself demonstrates this he took his seat in 2005, he is nominally elected for 6 years, that means his term expires in 2011.
This relates to the fact the Senate is a permanent chamber with fixed terms, it is the House of Representatives that has variable term limits. This is also why when a new parliament is elected, everyone moves into the Senate before moving into the House of Reps so those members can be sworn in.
[Mr Turnbull continues to insist he did not give the text of the email to News Ltd newspapers.
He would not say whether Mr Grech had contacted his office before the Senate hearing, but indicated he had expectations about the official’s evidence.
“We certainly were expecting, based on information we had received, that he would say he had a communication,” Mr Turnbull said]
Errr, he would say that, wouldn’t he. What a prawn!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25675742-5005962,00.html
[“I’ll apologise … for saying he misled the Parliament when he apologises to me for saying I had a hand in fabricating this email,” he said.]
What a dishonest dog. Rudd never said that, and Turnbull knows it.
183-184
my bad. either way, hopefully this will be his last term.
What’s the bet that Turnbull makes an offer in Question Time to apologise to Rudd if Rudd apologises to Turnbull!
For what? Trying through one of the grubbiest smear campaigns ever, to destroy Rudd. He’s gotta be kidding!
Need more popcorn!
I can’t understand why everyone is being so polite to Fielding. I would be quizzing him on other aspects of science which he has trouble accepting eg. the theory of evolution for starters.
I do understand tho’ that he has now accepted that the earth is oblate spheroid orbiting the sun.
[What a dishonest dog. Rudd never said that, and Turnbull knows it.]
I think Turnbull is referring to Rudd’s analogy that Turnbull has “his finger prints all over this email”, which was a great piece of imagery, but of course doesn’t in the slightest imply that Turnbull wrote the email.
Labor will probably persevere with trying to extract an apology out of Turnbull to Rudd and I think he now has no option but I think they will also be putting the heat on for a raft of apologies to Swan to bury them even deeper.
Steve Lewis scoop: ‘Rudd eggs Grech’s house’.
[Steve Lewis scoop: ‘Rudd eggs Grech’s house’.]
…email with photos to follow.
Actually Adam he did so he should apologise…
Check Hansard 😀
Benji – did you notice our fab. member (only joking) stuck next to Hockey yesterday during the first censure motion. His face was a picture when Rudd started speaking. Glad I watched because it added to the day.
Someone mentioned earlier about Grech turning around before he ‘spilled the beans’. I noticed that and wondered what he was doing.
Finns has got it on video but I think the people in the background were out of range of the camera. If it is important I think Doug Cameron or someone else would have picked it up and maybe the AFP if they look at the tape of the proceedings.
It was awfully obvious.
Love this bit from Annabell Crabb. Where was she a couple of days ago?
[THERE are times when stories are orchestrated by oppositions, or juiced up by journalists, or even gussied up by governments.
But the story of the ute is now officially a rogue elephant, lumbering crazed and out of control, and threatening the life of its handlers.
Malcolm Turnbull’s confidence was supreme on Friday as he called resonantly for the resignation of the Prime Minister and the Treasurer.
A week already memorable for the bloodless departure of his major internal enemy was made gloriously replete by the evidence of Godwin Grech, the Treasury official with the Dickensian name and the handy memory for emails.
But as yesterday unfolded, triumph succumbed to the oldest wrecker in the book – events. And the smile faded from Turnbull’s face.
Australian Federal Police located the email, and pronounced it a fake. Grech is now assisting them with their inquiries.
What was that audible hiss?
The wind escaping from Turnbull’s sails?]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-car-salesman-gives-pm-a-reference-20090622-cu0t.html
[I’ll apologise … for saying he misled the Parliament]
Didn’t Malcolm call Kevin Rudd corrupt?
[Actually Adam he did so he should apologise…
Check Hansard]
If you are so confident it is in Hansard, you should be able to find it and paste it here.
Rudd never stated or implied that Turnbull himself, or any other opposition M.P. wrote the email. Turnbull was in such a terrible position yesterday that he had to refute assertions that hadn’t been asserted.
I do however note that Turnbull only promised that no opposition M.P. had anything to do with writing the email, he didn’t refute the possibility that a Liberal staffer wrote it.
[…email with photos to follow.]
Update!
Photo’s show conclusively that Rudd was joined by Pauline Hanson in the egg-gate scandal now unfolding!