The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).
UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.
Two news nuggets to go:
• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.
Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.
[So do I but I was prepared to make an exception in the OJ case.]
Dio me too….
Hang on ShowOn, 3361
World War 1, despite its actual triggers, was fought by UK and Germany over economic “spheres of interest” over trading empires, and merchant and military navies (as well as France’s wounded pride after Prussia humiliated it in 1871, and Russia’s imperialist desires (a) to become the pan-Slavonic Empire (b) to create a patriotic war with Austria-Hungary in the hope of heading off a revolution at home).
Control of India’s vast wealth through their East India Companies was a significant trigger (of Pitt the Elder’s making) of the 7 Years War that bankrupted Louis XV’s France. Trade was the only UK excuse for fighting the Opium Wars.
Japan’s march to WW II began with the USA coal embargo, precipitating the invasion of Manchuria, also a reason (but not the main one) for the invasion of China… later invasions of Malaya and Indonesia were, in part (probably principally) to gain access to essential raw materials (oil, rubber) whose export to Japan had been blockes
The Iraq War, as even cartoons like Doonesbury portrayed well before the invasion and the WMD excuse, was fought over oil and activities which could well be called VP Cheney’s commercial interests. Critiques of the Vietnam War mention USA commercial interests as very important
Horowitz mounted a very well supported
[Rua – I’m not so concerned about the court cases he had, rather the ones he avoided through settlements.]
Wot? Like Goldmann Sachs and HIH ? 😉
whoa, scorpio @ 3395. That could prove really interesting as I seem to recall reporting of Malcolm did do some $ shifting at around the time of the bank guarantee.
Scorpio @ 3395
If that turns out to be true, and such a leak is traced to Grech (allegedly a serial leaker to the Liberals) then Turnbull is even further screwed. Seems to me that the ALP do have knowledge of some things held in reserve at the moment that are damaging for Turnbull, and by extension anyone else in the Libs who was dealing with whoever the treasury leak turns out to be. Maybe they are just waiting for the AFP to finish investigations and publish reports so that their hands are clean when the dirt comes down. That would let the journo’s do the work.
Indeed it is essential the Govt do nothing say nothing when matters turn to possible criminal behavior. This is non political for them, it is a matter of law and justice.
Unsurprising headlines:
Fox News Apologizes for Identifying Sanford as Democrat
I almost don’t want to mention it due to the previous posts, but I swear I just heard a police officer on ABC news refer to the death of the truck driver in the shooting incident in Sydney as a ‘once in a lifetime’ event.
Unfortunate choice of words. One of those *lol*groan*oops* moments.
I’m still trying to work out how Sandford was having an affair with an Argentinian reporter. That would have been hard work to organise.
HSO – I couldn’t agree more about the media here and wacko Jack.
The death of MJ is worth noting, an extended item perhaps, but not much more
I find today’s examples to be stronger indictments of Australia’s media than anything that’s happened in the utegate affair
[HSO – I couldn’t agree more about the media here and wacko Jack.
The death of MJ is worth noting, an extended item perhaps, but not much more
I find today’s examples to be stronger indictments of Australia’s media than anything that’s happened in the utegate affair]
Jackson’s Death is Princess Di all over again – it was the same with Elvis in 1977, and John Lennon in 1980, and locally Michael Hutchence.
That’s how the media operates.
Agreed TP @ 3406, but the politics of this (if true) will be exquisite!
The closer to an election that something like this breaks, the better for the forces of goodness and light. If there is something to it then the magisterial progress of the normal and proper judicial process grinding Turnbull and cronies into the dust of political extinction will be a sight to behold.
From a broader perspective though, the problem is that we get even further from having an effective opposition able to hold the government of the day to account when it needs to be, and that isn’t generally a good thing in a democracy.
Scorpio @ 3395 “I suppose that all will be revealed over time but I imagine the AFP may be interested to find out if there was a premature release of the Bank Guarantee which could have enabled some of our more well heeled representatives to shift their stash from investments to banks.”
Harry “Snapper” Organs @ 3404 “whoa, scorpio @ 3395. That could prove really interesting as I seem to recall reporting of Malcolm did do some $ shifting at around the time of the bank guarantee.”
Does this come under the “Insider trading” legislative umbrella?
As leaking this information is an offence under the Criminal code, I’m not sure what knowingly using such a leak to gain a financial benefit and/ or passing on information to others who gain a financial …
Any legal Eagle out there?
Poss
[Reports of Michael Jackson having a heart attack are incorrect, he has been found in the children’s ward, having a stroke!]
that one was below the belt.
Frank, yeah, I know, I know. I’ve been home this week with the precursor to, hideous execution of, and recovery from dental assault of the necessary, but extremely painful and expensive kind, so perhaps am not in my most tolerant mood. However, the meedja I’ve listened to or watched this week, all ABC, has irritated me. It’s that whole supposed balance thing. Except it ain’t.
Anyway, I’m now off for a whiskey and a bowl of chicken soup. High life. Catch you later.
[Jackson’s Death is Princess Di all over again – it was the same with Elvis in 1977, and John Lennon in 1980, and locally Michael Hutchence.]
You didn’t mention Heath Ledger. Now that was a completely OTT (over the top) reaction if ever I saw one. Part of the reason for these OTT reactions is that it’s cheap news i.e. it costs very little to pick up the reports from OS and regurgitate them in a studio in Australia with a local voice over to give the appearance that there was a strong local effort involved.
I’m surprised the Liberal Party voted to delay the ETS this week, perhaps they are giving Labor a fighting chance to get together stories like this.
http://malumnalu.blogspot.com/2009/03/malcolm-turnbull-linked-to-mass-logging.html
[You didn’t mention Heath Ledger. Now that was a completely OTT (over the top) reaction if ever I saw one. Part of the reason for these OTT reactions is that it’s cheap news i.e. it costs very little to pick up the reports from OS and regurgitate them in a studio in Australia with a local voice over to give the appearance that there was a strong local effort involved.]
Especially in Perth, and then there was Chris Mainwaring as well – especially as it was under very suss circumstances and the fact he was yelling a screaming before he collapsed.
To my fellow PollBludgers: if Michael Jackson’s death is unimportant – which I agree with – and it is the media that is to blame for fanning the flames, could you please answer me these two questions:
1. Why are you talking about it?
2. Why is it the most clicked on story on every single news website in the country?
Did someone want a copy of Frank’s avatar?
3419
1. Because it brings out the cynic in me.
2. Because it brings out the cynic in me.
Besides which local politics has got the weekend off.
You sound like a journalist, Steve K. Just feed the readers the tripe they want to read, and only if you are a respectable outlet do you bother to wipe their chins afterwards.
Steve K … and James Dean Buddy Holly, the Big Bopper et al; then there’s Rudi Valentino
How surprising to learn that many more people care about pop culture than care about politics. Wake me up when you find out something we don’t know.
Well, MJ’s death didn’t surprise me. For a few seconds – between sleep and awakening this morning early as I heard it on the radio – I wondered whether it wasn’t just another publicity stunt. The guy had “dead before his time” written all over him from long ago.
Nice music, good dancer, but hardly the stuff of “world mourns”.
My sympathies go out to the poor truckie who – about 500 metres from the scene – copped a stray bullet fired by an over-testosteroned person of the dickhead persuasion and died immediately. That is not only bad luck (and I heard that too about a “once in a lifetime event” but it didn’t hit home until polyquats brought it up – well spotted poly) but very, very bad cess to all concerned. To think that an innocent man, going about his business, not the slightest bit interested in what a bunch of “South-Western Sydney” gorillas get up to should pay with his life for just being there, fills me with anger and outrage.
MJ, thanks for the boogie, but I’m just not interested enought to delve into your sorry, sad life any further.
[Just feed the readers the tripe they want to read,]
You need to watch out when they feed you stuff they want you to read.
What’s the bet that Insiders will also run a section on MJ too to take the heat off Turnbull.
Insiders will be the major political outlet this weekend with probably a handful of second hand/inaccurate, stories in the Sunday papers.
Can’t resist reproducing this one from JtI. Most people will get it and I hope the rest get over it and realise where it is directed.
[I’m sure others have noticed the jokes are flying thick and fast across the emails this morning at poor Michael Jackson’s expense. Mostly not very tasteful. But one I did see was a gem:
“Ex Labor Party leader Kim Beazley is expected to make an announcement soon paying tribute to the late Jackson Browne”. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/afp_caught_up_in_the_bloodletting/P25/
Well, MJ’s death didn’t surprise me. For a few seconds – between sleep and awakening this morning early as I heard it on the radio – I wondered whether it wasn’t just another publicity stunt. The guy had “dead before his time” written all over him from long ago.
Nice music, good dancer, but hardly the stuff of “world mourns”.
My sympathies go out to the poor truckie who – about 500 metres from the scene – copped a stray bullet fired by an over-testosteroned person of the idiot persuasion and died immediately. That is not only bad luck (and I heard that too about a “once in a lifetime event” but it didn’t hit home until polyquats brought it up – well spotted poly) but very, very bad cess to all concerned. To think that an innocent man, going about his business, not the slightest bit interested in what a bunch of “South-Western Sydney” gorillas get up to should pay with his life for just being there, fills me with anger and outrage.
MJ, thanks for the boogie, but I’m just not interested enought to delve into your sorry, sad life any further.
Other then; the top dog changes; I’m not sure of your point. It would seem to support my view that anyone who assumes the USA is going to remain a first order power is ignoring history.
Do note all but the last were European powers, and that the European have finally worked out how to run the whole serbang as one.
I know it, Adam, I just don’t understand why people blame the media for giving them what they want. Perhaps you, a purveyor of the “swine flu is a myth” meme, could enlighten me.
Check out the photo here 😀
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/national/national/general/police-question-rudds-advisers/1551531.aspx
Well if you don’t like reading about Jackson’s death head to the West – from the News.com. sie, the most read story on each paper is Jackson, except for Perth Now.
Their top story?
“Gossip Girl’s nude pix leaked”
http://www.news.com.au/
They’re obviously cracking under the stress, vera 😀
The European powers were, even in the 19th century, fairly small countries in terms of the world’s population. They were able to establish domination over much larger non-European populations because (a) they were the first to discover the enormous wealth-generating power of capitalism, particularly banking and trade, and (b) they were able to exploit the resources of the Americas, then very thinly populated and open to settlement and exploitation.
These circumstances are not going to be repeated. Now that the whole world has been drawn into the international system of capitalist production and trade, rich but relatively small countries like Germany, France and Britain, even Russia and Japan, will inevitably lose their places as leading powers to larger countries. The three largest countries are China, India and the USA, and they will soon become, and will remain, the world’s dominant powers. The US will lose some of its relative dominance to China and India as the latter two grow richer and more powerful, but a country with 300m people, a whole continent to occupy, a huge lead in technology and enormous military strength (not to mention vast “soft power” as the world’s dominant culture), is not going to cease to be a world power within the next century (unless they elect more Republican morons as President.)
In 2009 the population of Europe was estimated to be 830 million, the USA’s 300 million. It’s no longer about the states of Europe, it’s about Europe.
New thread.