Essential Research: 57-43

The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).

UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.

Two news nuggets to go:

• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.

Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,436 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43”

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  1. Kieren Gilbert’s latest Skynews’ report is even tougher on Turnbull than Spiers was earlier this morning. Gilbert says Turnbulls attack on Rudd has “backfired spectacularly” and MT’s the one who now must face “serious questions”.

    Skynews’ next item on the Opposition Alcopops backflip vote is being portrayed as having “effectively split” the Opposition because a few of them voted against it,so perhaps our Glen’s speculations about a new leader could be valid.

  3. Glen @ 54,

    If you’re still posting, I’d be most interested to hear why Tony Abbott is not on your list of potential future Opposition Leader.

  4. The problem we have with the political media in Australia is that it is polarised between conservatives and leftists. There are plenty of right-wing commentators, who support the Liberals and attack Labor from the right, and plenty of left-wing commentators, who support the Greens or other left groups and attack Labor from the left, and a few impartial commentators who don’t support anyone. What we DON’T have is ANYONE who supports the centrist positions by Labor (which the majority of the Australian people vote for), and who openly and consistently supports Labor. In every newsroom across the country, it’s fine to be a Liberal, and it’s fine to be a Green or a “left Labor” critic. The one thing you’re not allowed to be is right-wing Labor.

  5. [Skynews’ next item on the Opposition Alcopops backflip vote is being portrayed as having “effectively split” the Opposition because a few of them voted against it,so perhaps our Glen’s speculations about a new leader could be valid.]
    For the record, these are the people that voted against the alcopops bill:

    Darren Chester (Nat)
    Alby Shultz (Lib)
    Tony Windsor (Ind)
    Paul Neville (Nat)
    Wilson Tuckey (Lib)

    The real story though is that no Liberals voted FOR the legislation, all the other Libs and Nats abstained.

    This is very strange when Dutton said yesterday that the Liberals were now going to support this legislation.

  8. [If you’re still posting, I’d be most interested to hear why Tony Abbott is not on your list of potential future Opposition Leader.]
    Glen is a wet, Abbott is a dry.

  10. Psephos,

    [What we DON’T have is ANYONE who supports the centrist positions by Labor (which the majority of the Australian people vote for), and who openly and consistently supports Labor. In every newsroom across the country, it’s fine to be a Liberal, and it’s fine to be a Green or a “left Labor” critic. The one thing you’re not allowed to be is right-wing Labor.]

    A-Bloody-men

    We need a Dr Rachel Maddow, Rhodes Scholar, openly left, very fair minded and is a killer at interviewing without creating enemies. Australian media has dumbed down to the extent that watching commercial political reporting @ night is like reading Australia Picture Mag.

    By the way I think it’s Steve Price who’s wife works for Hockey although I might be wrong, I can go back because BLOODY OPTUS have capped my broadband @ 64kbps.

  11. Dogma, dunno if I’d call Rachel Maddow centre-right, and Adam I reckon your lot generally does OK. There is still some realigning going on as those in bubbles realise that power has shifted, but I don’t reckon the Labor right should be crying poor about ‘media bias’. Reminds me of another bunch.

  12. [ If you’re still posting, I’d be most interested to hear why Tony Abbott is not on your list of potential future Opposition Leader. ]

    Getting Brenda to restand and putting him in the leadership again is a much more reasonable option.

    Might just save the libs from annihilation at the coming DD election, which will be irresistible to labor given the damage turnbull has inflicted upon himself.

  13. Psephos @ 104: “In every newsroom across the country, it’s fine to be a Liberal, and it’s fine to be a Green or a “left Labor” critic. The one thing you’re not allowed to be is right-wing Labor.”

    Psephos,

    I’d appreciate your listing a couple of the “left Labor” critics in the MSM as I’d like to read or hear something other than Lib and Green critics.

  14. ShowsOn i dont ascribe to factions as im not alligned…

    I have both wet and dry beliefs…hence a moderate in the true sense of the word…

  15. I’ve been following Maddow since she started on Air America Radio—she’s exceptionally articulate and incisive with a pleasant self-deprecatory sense of humour.

  16. ShowsOn @ 107 Abbott is a hard-line Papist, with rumours he’s part of Opus Dei. His attempts to limit the “abortion” drug & stem cell research led to two victorious multi-party “women’s revolts” in the last years of the Howard government.

    Draw up a list of likely Liberal supporters who regard this as a crime greater than being a communist; starting with certain Lodges, Christian sects, women’s groups, a host of “medical” support groups like Spinal Injuries, MS, MND and on and on and on.

    I doubt even Julie Bishop generates this much enmity!

  17. pancho

    [dunno if I’d call Rachel Maddow centre-right]

    She’s left in US which is more to the right than Australia. If she was in Australia she would be considered close to centre-right.

  18. [ShowsOn i dont ascribe to factions as im not alligned…]
    Oh that’s right, there are no such thing as factions in the Liberal party. 😀
    [ShowsOn @ 107 Abbott is a hard-line Papist, with rumours he’s part of Opus Dei. His attempts to limit the “abortion” drug & stem cell research led to two victorious multi-party “women’s revolts” in the last years of the Howard government.]
    Whenever the federal parliament has a conscience vote, the non-religious based position wins by a 2:1 margin. Abbott seems to enjoy being part of the 1/3 that lose.

  19. [She’s left in US which is more to the right than Australia. If she was in Australia she would be considered close to centre-right.]
    I disagree. If she was in Australia she would be part of the Labor Left.

  21. #105
    [This is very strange when Dutton said yesterday that the Liberals were now going to support this legislation.]

    By “support” he meant grudgingly allow it to pass. In his speech he attacked it and disputed Roxon’s arguments the same as he did when they opposed it. I can’t imagine any Liberals being able to stomach actually going into the chamber and sitting with the government.

  22. To save myself the effort of re-writing this in other words, this is my view of the whole farce as expressed (in slightly shorter form) to Malcolm Farr over at his current blog on the subject. Please forgive me quoting myself:

    [Gee, I hate to say I told you so Malcolm, but this affair did not result in the fall of the government. I can understand your column of last Friday being written in an over-excited frame of mind. We were all a bit like that, but thank God wiser heads have prevailed. I’m not accusing you personally of any wrongdoing. You just (as many others did) let it all go to your head a little.

    But some of your colleagues – Akerman, Milne and company, and especially Steve Lewis – do not get off the hook so easily.

    An attempt to being down the government of Australia has failed, because the Leader of the Opposition was peddling a fake email around the traps. Turnbull clearly had the email well in advance of Grech’s testimony, as did your colleague Steve Lewis.

    I find it astonishing that Steve Lewsis’ role in this terrible attempt to subvert our democracy with fraudulent documents is not being examined closer. He seems to have gotten off scott free, to lick his wounds until the next dodgy scam falls into his in-tray. Lewis admits to, even boasts about being a player in all this. He has made several calls to Grech before and after Grech gave evidence. Yet he is allowed to melt away into the background without censure to plan his next attempt.

    The “reproduction” of the email in last Saturday’s Telegraph was fabricated, in that it had “To: Godwin GRANT” as the recipient, confusing Grech’s Christian name with Grant’s surname. The Telegraph not only published a bogus email, it even screwed up the embellishments that were designed to make it appear superficially genuine. Is there nothing your scrappy rag will not sink to, to put the boot into this government (or to anyone else they don’t like: remember the fake photographs of Pauline Hanson)?

    Rudd’s only mistake in this whole affair is giving oxygen to the preposterous contention that any political donor or acquaintance of a senior politician is automatically disqualified from receiving help by a government department on any issue. Rudd got off the specific “charge” on the evidentiary technicality that the email was a fraud, in effect accepting the validity of the accusation that his actions were improper. In my opinion he should have spent much more time rebutting the accusation’s basic premiss. I fear the next scam will be better constructed, the frame-up will be more plausible, the net more tightly drawn… and that technicalities may not help Rudd then, as they have this time.

    I can only hope that you, as a journalist of supposed decency, integrity and professionalism, caution your colleagues at News Ltd. against their reckless disregard for the truth in the pursuit of shady political goals, and if you can’t achieve this, tell us – your readers – the truth about it, instead of being swept up in the media hysteria and groupthink as you were last Friday.]

  23. [..and now the Fall of Rudd would be an even better scoop. ]

    Which is even worse since the try and make and destroy democratically elected governments and individuals as a personal revenue decision, thus having no interest in honest journalism. They should be in jail.

  25. dogma @ 116

    My knowledge of Australian politics/media isn’t nearly as extensive as yours, but I do know Maddow’s views are very far “left” for American journalists.

    In foreign policy, she opposed both invasions of Afghan. and Iraq, which is to the “left” of Obama and Rudd’s enthusiastic support of the Bush/Howard Afghan occupation.

  26. jj

    Agree. Maddows is about the same as Glenn Greenwald, who she regularly interviews. They are way to the left of Obama and are continually bagging him, as they should.

  27. She also advocates for prison reform, gay marriage and universal healthcare (a bigger deal in the US, granted). It’s hard to say for sure, but I think she would be more ideologically inclined further left. She’d probably get on with Jules.

  30. I heard Steve Fielding say yesterday that he was definitely voting against the ETS. He didn’t mention not believing in AGW. He said he wanted to wait until after Copenhagen because it would be “suicide” to “go it alone”.

    A DD must be looking awfully tempting at the moment to the Ruddster.

  31. [What’s the Rudd tactics committee got planned for the Libs today?

    Yesterday was Pearl Harbor. I think today will be more like Stalingrad.]

    On reflection, I think it will more like Bull Run 🙂

  32. The only reason they are letting alcopops pass is that they are terrified of an early election. They will eventually pass the CPRS for the same reason, although there will be a lot of floor-crossing in the Senate.

  33. For anyone who missed them, here are some of today’s newspaper headlines:

    The Advertiser – Grand Fake Auto
    Herald Sun – What a Car Wreck
    The Australian – Turnbull’s Fake Email Nightmare
    Daily Telegraph – Backfire
    Courier Mail – Ute Backfire
    The Age – Fake Email Trips Turnbull

    I’m dissapointed that “MAL-FUNCTION” didn’t get a run.

  34. jjulian,

    Maddow’s great isn’t she.

    She is sometimes far left on climate change, but she is centre left on the economy and health care. Remembering American are trying to design a new health care system in which everyone can have healthcare not just the rich.

    My opinion is that American politics is futher right than Australia and in Australia we might bitch around the edges but we’ve got the balance right of Greens left, Labor left/right, Liberals Moderates/conservatives. I just don’t happen to agree with alot of the Liberal ideology.

    What she does when interviewing is, debate the Pat Buchanan’s (very far right republican) and win that debate with logic and class. I agree with showson that she is Labor left and labor centre, but that doesn’t stop her from having a debate with the far right evangelists – wiping the floor with them – all with class.

  35. [BB 121

    Hear Hear!]

    SteveK @127: Thanks. I’ve been trying to find a way of getting that off my chest ever since this idiocy all started.

  37. Via Annabel Crabb’s twitter:
    [Steve Fielding has just issued a press release saying he is taking Tamiflu. Thanks mate]

    She also says that Chris Pearce has announced he is going to retire at the next election.

  41. “Steve Fielding has just issued a press release saying he is taking Tamiflu.”

    But there have been less swine flu deaths this month than last. ??? I put it to you Fielding that swine flu is a fraud, and you should not take Tamiflu until we have more evidence.

  43. I don’t see why anyone should be even labelled as “left” for supporting public health care. It simply works better than private health care. Even the UK has a public system. Private health care always winds up costing more than public and rarely works as well. Health care is a classic case of a service that people underestimate their need for until they are actually sick, and then can be made to pay anything. It should be public on principle.

    US private health care costs more per capita than Australia’s health care by a margin so large that it would pay for our entire education system with the change. And people in the US still die from lack of medical treatment!

  47. [I put it to you Fielding that swine flu is a fraud, and you should not take Tamiflu until we have more evidence.]
    He doesn’t trust scientists on climate change, why should he trust the scientists who invented Tamiflu?

  48. [LABOR’S battle to hold the inner-city seat of Brunswick could become tougher with outspoken former Federal MP and football identity Phil Cleary considering a tilt at the marginal seat at next year’s state election.

    “The idea of being in Parliament is something that I did enjoy and I wouldn’t turn down easily,” Mr Cleary said. “If I ran and the Greens and I preferenced, the ALP would be a dead duck.”

    Labor faces a Greens threat in inner city seats — Brunswick, Northcote, Richmond and Melbourne — at the 2010 election.]

  49. I don’t understand why some sections of the media keep talking about the June 30 deadline for nominating for Higgins.

    If the Liberals had some sort of massive catastrophe, then whoever wins the nomination for Higgins would step aside to allow Costello to run.

  50. Buried in Michelle “La Stupenda” Grattan’s column this afternoon:

    [The Age has been told Mr Grech was the Opposition’s source as well as the source for News Ltd journalist Steve Lewis, who asserted the email existed.]

    If he was the Oppo’s source, then how can they possibly say they don’t know him?

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