The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, down from 58-42 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down 0.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 2 per cent to 38 per cent and the Greens are down 1 per cent to 7 per cent.
In other news, it’s all happening in Victoria:
• Peter Costello’s surprise announcement that he will not contest the next election has raised the flag on another epic Victorian Liberal preselection stoush in his Melbourne seat of Higgins, which housed successive Liberal prime ministers in Harold Holt and John Gorton. Furthermore, Costello has raised the possibility of an early departure and a by-election, “if it’s in the party’s interest”. Immediately prior to Costello’s announcement, Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam signalled his intention to run if Costello stood aside, after earlier testing the waters in Kooyong (see below). However, Peter van Onselen in The Australian reports that Costello has resolved to oppose Roskam due to equivocal comments he made to David Penberthy of The Punch about Costello’s future value in politics. Van Onselen further reports widespread displeasure at this and other remarks seen to be in breach of Liberal rules that preselection aspirations are not to be discussed with the media. Costello reportedly wishes for the seat to go to a former staffer, Kelly O’Dwyer. It had earlier been reported that O’Dwyer might depose incumbent Ted Baillieu loyalist Andrew McIntosh in the state seat of Kew. The other big name in the Higgins mix is Mal Brough, who has moved to Melbourne and is said to be hopeful of a return to politics that doesn’t involve further dirtying his hands in the morass of the Queensland Liberal National Party. However, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports party sources say he has “no chance”. Also mentioned are former state party director Julian Sheezel, who was said to be backed by Costello but opposed by Michael Kroger when talk of Costello’s departure was in the air after the election, Jason Aldworth, a former banking colleague of Michael Kroger and more recently a consultant for Crosby Textor; and, intriguingly, Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John, who memorably sought to depose Roger Shipton as member for this very seat in pursuit of his prime ministerial ambitions.
• Merchant banker Josh Frydenberg has won the hotly contested preselection to succeed Petro Georgiou as the Liberal candidate for Kooyong. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Frydenberg won the second round ballot over industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto by 283 votes to 239 after all other contenders were excluded in the first round. The result is a defeat for Ted Baillieu, whose power base had pursued various stratagems designed to thwart Frydenberg, the preferred candidate of the rival Kroger faction.
• The ALP national executive’s role in Victorian state preselections has been further expanded following John Brumby’s decision to refer to the body all state upper house preselections for next year’s election. Labor insiders quoted by David Rood of The Age relate that the decision will “all but end” the career of Theo Theophanous, who faces a vigorously contested rape charge and was recently among those named adversely in the state Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. This week the national executive acted as expected in relation to a number of lower house preselections referred to it in the wake of the latter imbroglio, selecting former Trades Hall Council deputy secretary (and wife of New South Wales Senator Steve Hutchins) Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace George Seitz in Keilor and confirming incumbents Telmo Languiller, Rob Hulls, Marsha Thomson and Marlene Kairouz in Derrimut, Niddrie, Footscray and Kororoit. It has also been confirmed that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will seek to move to the lower house by nominating for preselection in Essendon, to be vacated by the retiring Judy Maddigan. In his absence, the national executive has chosen incumbents Martin Pakula, Khalil Eideh and Bob Smith to head the ticket in Western Metropolitan (Smith currently represents South-Eastern Metropolitan).
• Helen Shardey, Victorian Shadow Health Minister and member for Caulfield, has indicated she will stand down at the next election. It had been reported she faced a preselection challenge from David Southwick, previously unsuccessful in the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and for the state upper house Southern Metropolitan in 2006.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that former Liberal MP Phil Barresi, whom he describes as a “factionally unenthusiastic Krogerite”, has been given the green light to attempt to recover the seat of Deakin which he held from 1996 until his defeat in 2007. Barresi reportedly won on the first round over eccentric perennial Ken Aldred, who was dumped in favour of Barresi in 1996 after peddling weird conspiracy theories, and one Deanna Ryall. Perhaps Barresi is encouraged by the precedent of 1984, when the Liberals unexpectedly recovered the seat (with some help from a redistribution) after losing it when the Hawke government was elected in 1983.
Elsewhere:
• Glenn Milne in The Australian reports on the Labor succession in the federal seat of Macquarie, which will be vacated at the next election by Bob Debus. As Milne tells it, Debus or his supporters put it about that his recent decision to withdraw from the ministry and bow out at the next election, which helped the Prime Minister no end as he sought to construct a new cabinet in the wake of Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation, was conditional upon Debus being given the right to anoint his own successor. This was hotly disputed by Right powerbrokers who are bitterly opposed to Debus’s objective of freezing out industrial barrister Adam Searle, a Left faction colleague but personal rival.
• Two new goodies from Antony Green. An extensive paper for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library provides all manner of detail on the state’s Legislative Council election in 2007, while an accompanying blog post scrutinises the performance of the optional preferential above-the-line voting system introduced after the 1999 election produced a tablecloth-sized ballot paper and elected candidates from groupings that would be flattered by the “micro-party” designation. He further discusses the potential for such a system to resolve the issues which saw Steve Fielding elected to the Senate in 2004. For the more casual election enthusiast, a new 2010federal election calculator allows you set the two-party result to taste to find out the seat outcome in the event of a uniform swing. It turns out a 50-50 result would give the Coalition exactly half the seats and presumably allow it to govern with support of the three independents. Labor loses its majority at 50.8 per cent.
• Queensland independent MP Peter Wellington has introduced a private member’s bill providing for fixed three-year terms, with an escape clause if a new government cannot be formed in the wake of no-confidence motion and a provision allowing for a five-week postponement if there is a clash with a federal election or a “widespread natural disaster”. The major parties both support fixed four-year terms, which unlike Wellington’s proposal would require a referendum. Negotiations for such a referendum broke down last year when then Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg insisted on further unrelated reforms, but his successor John-Paul Langbroek has foreshadowed a more “flexible” approach in future discussions with the government.
• Christian Kerr of The Australian evaluates the Australian political blogosphere.
UPDATE: Thanks to Rebecca in comments for bringing my attention to the fact that Allison Ritchie, Labor member for the Tasmanian Legislative Council district of Pembroke, yesterday announced she would quit parliament after enduring a storm of controversy over her appointment of family members on her staff. This will presumably result in a by-election shortly in Pembroke, where Ritchie defeated an independent incumbent in 2001 and won re-election in 2007. The Electoral Act allows the government enormous latitude on the timing of such a by-election, so I’ll hold off on giving it its own post until its intentions become clearer. Ritchie claims to have been the victim of a plot from within her own party, which presumably explains why she has decided to go now rather than wait for the more convenient juncture of early next year, when a by-election could be held with the state election in March or the annual periodical upper house elections in May.
Here you go Squiggle:
http://twitpic.com/7sfux
Now they are just being silly.
http://twitter.com/BernardKeane
[He knew he was floundering in the polls, the economy is starting to turn around, and so he needs something. After all, he is our next PM! Or at least, he was. A drowning man grabbing for an anchor]
My theory is he assumed he was smarter than Rudd, and he thought he had got him, and that this would prove to everyone that Turnbull had beaten Rudd. I think the comments that fly around the press that Turnbull is an amateur poltician rankled with him, and he thought this would show everyone he was a master.
I think in Turnbull’s view, it isn’t enough for him to just win an election, he also wanted to bring down a PM. (plus he seems to hate Rudd, so that might have blinded him a bit as well)
Yay, Albo vs. People skills.
[Now they are just being silly.]
Actually Michael Douglas as Turnbull is a good call.
What a rabble:
[Opposition split on alcopops tax hike
ABC site – Posted 36 minutes ago
Four federal Opposition MPs have split from the rest of their Coalition colleagues and refused to vote for a permanent increase to the alcopops tax.
The Government’s bid to increase the tax on alcopops or pre-mixed drinks was defeated in March by the Coalition and Family First.
But the Opposition has now decided to vote for the increase because of the collapse in government revenue.
In the House of Representatives, Liberals Wilson Tuckey and Alby Schultz, Nationals Darren Chester and Paul Neville and the independent Tony Windsor voted against the increase.
Mr Tuckey says the tax does not address binge drinking and if the Government were serious about tackling alcoholism, it could introduce other measures.
“You could have a law that said you’re not allowed to add more than x per cent of alcohol in any mixed drink,” he said.
“But no, all they wanted to do was tax the packaged product that had no more alcohol in it than mid-strength beer.”
The rest of the Coalition stayed out of the chamber for the vote.]
AFP suspect Godwin Grech created the email – Lateline.
Am I wrong, or would Capolingua mean “talking head” in Italian? 🙂
Oh, and just to clarify: yes, an email was found. A faked one.
As a pollie, Talcum makes a good lawyer.
Maybe a British version instead, with Colin Frith as Rudd, Hugh Lawrie as Swann and Rowan Atkinson as Turnbull?
“AFP suspect Godwin Grech created the email – Lateline.”
And there’s a lesson to Rudd: keeping all those Howard-appointed stooges, lickspittles, and “dont tell the PM”-ites perhaps wasn’t such a good idea.
They weren’t appointed on the basis of competence you know.
[Godwin Grech]
I mean that name is just made to make a movie about.
Chris Uhlman says there’s grumblings amongst the Liberal Party regarding Turnbull’s leadership.
Is Turnbull still relying on Grech’s evidence in estimates that Grant got special treatment? Whether Grech is guilty or gullible, his evidence can no longer be taken at face value. Which means that all they have left on Swan is the fact that Swan phoned Grant but may not have phoned any of the other dealers. Talk about clutching at straws.
Well this latest episode will make any potential Liberal rats in the ps to think a little longer.
Good to see that we discussing the big issues.
As a Labor supporter i must state this…
What i cannot work out is why Turnbull is under scrutiny when the email came from the treasury. I thought
Rudd tonight was somewhat terse and a bit loony on the 7.30 report. Turnbull was somewhat calm and measured.
But he showed very little backbone.
Anyhow this issue should be dumped and forgotten about, it is silly and plain stupid.
Turnbull was stupid on one count and that was demanding the resignation of Swan and Rudd on Friday.
He jumped to early and now he has egg on his fault.
Now the government is doing the same. This is not a crisis it is simply a silly silly episode amongst a group of people
arguing over what emails???
[AFP suspect Godwin Grech created the email – Lateline.”]
Why??? What was his motive? Was he the one leaking in the Treasury, and he decided to go that bit further??
Generic Person @ 2353 said “However it was found, the point is that the Government’s initial reaction that there was no email was wrong.”
That’s is just not true, GP! You’ll find, if you back-check, that “no email” = “There is no trace of an email sent” [on the relevant date] “from from A Charlton in the PM’s Office to Godwin at his Treasury computer.”
If there is one lesson to the Liberals from this, and April’s SA “fake email” scam – learn to check your facts very carefully before you publicly go out on a limb, then cut it
behind you.
Note on ABC Just In tonight records the latest fallout of the Scientology Domation fake email scam “It is understood Mr Hamilton-Smith dared any MP with the numbers to mount a challenge for his job …. Mr Hamilton-Smith has been under pressure since using fake documents in Parliament to attack the ALP.” http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/22/2605166.htm?section=justin
The fake email scam was late April 2009. By mid-June, “SA opposition leader Martin Hamilton-Smith accuses Kevin Foley of corruption” (Sound familiar??) http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25644683-5013945,00.html By 22 June, it’s (same ABC link above, we have “The ABC has been told Mr Williams told Mr Hamilton-Smith last week he should stand aside as leader.”
Check your facts!
Yep, Oz, who do the Libs turn to Abbott.
I think the public does not understand this issue and in reality to many people this issue means very little.
[Why??? What was his motive? Was he the one leaking in the Treasury, and he decided to go that bit further??]
Maybe? Maybe he was blackmailed?
I’ve done enough speculating to last me a lifetime. I’ll just let the AFP do their work re who created the email.
I hope the insiders panel and barry issue an apology to the government this week after all their fawning over grech- that poor thing, just trying to tell the truth. yeah, sure
Good idea Oz – And I wa sone who thought it best to leave Grech out of it till any finding where known.
At this point who the hell knows what’s going on.
From the Lib point of view the worst thing about today’s soap opera is that if Turnbull does resign, or they decide to depose him, the most likely alternative, Joe Hockey, has rendered himself unavailable by his stunningly stupid performance this afternoon. That leaves them with Abbott or Bishop, both very big risks, or someone completely new like Dutton, Keenan or even Pyne. It’s a pretty dismal prospect. I’d go for Bishop, despite her recent mishaps, because I think she actually does have leadership ability, and because a woman leader would be a positive news story in itself.
Only somebody who knew Grech would understand how he could allegedly do what was done. But he would not be alone, the fake was disseminated so there are than just one person involved in this.
[I think the public does not understand this issue and in reality to many people this issue means very little.]
Maybe. But I’m sure the Liberal Party room are across things, and also care a bit…
Marky is right – lets move on to the state of the economy, the alcopops tax and the ETS legislation. I can’t think why the Libs would want to distract attention away from those issues.
Meanwhile the AFP can complete their investigation, the guilty be charged, and trials held. We can all wathc it unfold from now to the next election. There should be no government interference with the AFP at all. Normal process should be a barrel of laughs on this one.
Abbott has completely lost it on Lateline. Make him leader at once.
Somehow I don’t think Hockey tomorrow morning will be demanding Grech be allowed to reappear before the Senate committee…
Perhaps Martine was actually protecting Grech from himself??
[Abbott has completely lost it on Lateline. Make him leader at once.]
He’s hardly bothering to defend Turnbull.
Now Tony Jones is slaughtering Tony Abbott. The very best and the very worst of Australian journalism on show, all in an action-packed four days.
You lot have looooooved it.
I wonder if Martine will ever get an apology from those who have labelled him a government apparachik, now that it is apparent his actions were very sensible?
It’s a bit scary when Tony Abbott is the most lucid member of the Liberal Party.
If an election were held anytime in the next six months, the coalition will lose in a landslide. They have no policies are in disarray
and look at present a party with many factions and ideas. On climate change they have the National Party still not believing it and the Libs
unable to formulate a view with some conservatives still hesitate to do anything.
Can someone tell me why is Abbot smiling and being smug on Lateline, happy that Turnbull is under the pump?
The kids meantime are arguing about a email on Lateline… what next a discussion about who has stolen my lollipop
in the playground. What a Joke.
[It’s a bit scary when Tony Abbott is the most lucid member of the Liberal Party.]
Are his ears actually getting bigger? (and I say this as someone who was self conscious about his own ears gowing up!)
[He’s hardly bothering to defend Turnbull.]
He’s probably figured it’s a lost cause to do so.
Well, I still have $10 on J Bishop to lead Libs at next election. Thought it was gone, but now who knows?
I’m tipping Abbott to be the next leader of the Liberal Party.
Although I also said that Peter Costello would be leader by the end of the year.
I picked Rudd though, ages ago.
See if I can get my 50% success rate up to 66%.
Steve Lewis extracting as much juice from Grech as inhumanly possible.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25674462-662,00.html
[Perhaps Martine was actually protecting Grech from himself??]
Yep. I think that fits.
Is that Steve Lweis article the first time ever a story has been published “in the future” and already been out of date?
Another possible offence to be coming up. This one has a considerably lower maximum penalty than does abuse of public office
[Impersonation Of An Official by Another Official
A Commonwealth public official is guilty of an offence if on a particular occasion, the official impersonates another person in that other person’s capacity as a Commonwealth public official; and the first mentioned official does so knowing it to be in circumstances when the other official is likely to be on duty; and the first
mentioned official does so with intent to deceive.
Penalty: Imprisonment for 2 years.]
Grog, or his head’s shrinking? Abbott’s floundering.
Unusually balanced for Lateline. Does this mean the ABC knows Rudd & Swan are safe & Malcolm’s up the creek.
[Mr Grech has been sick for years and once almost died of septicemia. Neighbours say he has a bag packed just in case he has to rush to hospital.
Mr Grech’s nearest neighbours described him as honest, loyal and genuine.
They said he was a hard worker who loved his job.
But on Monday, far from the Treasury offices, the blinds were drawn and awnings down as Mr Grech bunkered down.]
Pathetic article.
From the Lewis article in linked in GGs 2428
[But he would not answer the critical question: had he lied to the Senate hearing last Friday when he delivered his explosive evidence under oath?]
Is Lewis still in contact with Grech? What happened to the safe house?
Tony had the best line of the night…
Gives Albo a serve for talking over him just as Rudd did to Kerry…
The Leader of the Opposition has just tried to grossly slander and bring down the Prime Minster not having any hard evidence in his possession and never seeing hard evidence, only hearing words of text supposedly from an email, it turning out to be invented information. And then saying the information came from a newspaper that wasn’t published until after the text was quoted by Abetz and Turnbull made his allegations.
This is not small at all, this is huge. If the forger had been better what then?
It doesn’t matter if it bores the public, it still has to be dealt with as an extremely serious attack on the democratic system.
Turnbull should be all rights resign in disgrace exposing himself as a reckless and incompetent leader.
Yep Oz – the whole get a quote from the neighbours of “he was a quiet man” etc is the dullest journalism going.
[Why??? What was his motive? Was he the one leaking in the Treasury, and he decided to go that bit further??]
Maybe Greech went home Friday night and made up another email to prove himself right?
Has anyone considered there could be two different fake emails that say the same thing! 😀
[Is Lewis still in contact with Grech?]
He says he has a short telephone conversation with Gretch in the article…
Adam if you think Turnbull will resign will it be this week or when the AFP reports?
Yeah, Glen. Classic. That killed me.
But seriously folks…I guess that Grech had leaked this email to Lewis some time previously. It obviously didn’t come during the day he made 4 calls to him. SO the four calls were about being able to publish/attribute presumably. Grech said no the first few times then folded. Why? Is he mad?