Don’t ask me how, but Peter Brent at Mumble seems to have the scoop on Newspoll. Labor’s lead is up slightly on a fortnight ago, from 55-45 to 56-44. Better news for them still on the primary vote, up four points to 46 per cent with the Coalition down one to 34 per cent. Despite this, Kevin Rudd has recorded his weakest personal ratings since October, his approval down six points to 58 per cent and his disapproval up five to 31 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s position has improved, his approval up four points to 40 per cent and his disapproval down three to 42 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 64-19 to 58-24.
[The only thing common in all polls is Rudd’s satisfaction rating is down, but still generally quite high]
Whats the bet Tony Jones makes that the focus of the interview with Rudd. ‘The people hate you Mr Rudd, what do you say to that?’
The most salient factor in all the recent polls is a significant reduction in Rudd’s popularity versus the previous stratospheric support.
Maybe he needs another overseas trip. It always helps his popularity. His only problems occur when he comes back.
Stellar polling since December 2006 shows no signs of faltering. Rudd Labor is impenetrable.
Mumble has done very well….
I guess Peter Hartcher now has to say the aberration of the last year and half is continuing.
My prediction – The Oz focusses on Rudd’s drop in satisfaction.
so despite all the hoohar, not much of a change. hmmmm. Rudds popularity down from mega huge ginormous, to just mega huge.
So who said the honeymoon was over in the past fortnight?
Glenn Milne was it?
The MSM is forever saying Rudd’s honeymoon is over. Ever since December 2006.
🙂
If you take the three polls, add ’em up and divide by 3, you get 57. I’ll go with that.
(This highly scientific method of analysis is copyright Psephos Polls 2009)
my bet for oz headline : RUDDS POPULARITY DROPS BELOW 60%; LABOR DOOMED
The journos have stopped wetting themselves under Newspoll.
Lol, I knew it. ALP vote up! Poor Talcum, just 5 minutes of political sunshine.
At least the OO can console themselves on not being the one with dodgy rogue polls.
How does a 4-point movement up in the primaries translate into only a 1-point improvement in the 2PP?
What a surprise. Lateline leads with the satisfaction slip for Rudd and barely mentions the 1% ALP increase.
Yes, the coverage will be “PM’s Budget Hit”
Wellity, wellity, wellity. The end is not nigh after all. No doubt the MSM will focus on Rudd’s approval rating but I hope that Meganomics rips into the Libs’ economic credibility further and someone like Tanner takes notice and dish it to them during QT. 😀
bob1234
[Brown can’t be a PM, he’s not in the lower house.]
I don’t think thats true, weren’t there some PM’s from the senate in the early days?
Can Adam or some of the other walking-encyclopedia’s produce (what i assume is a rather short list) of all the PM’s, Treasurers and Opposition Leaders that served in the senate?
#11
most of it was transferred from the greens
Where did that Liberal blow-in go that was in here before praising Howard and bagging Rudd? Bet he won’t be back for a while.
I’m glad Gillard has discarded her red-devil hairdo. She looks much prettier now.
The Oz:
[Labor maintains large support in latest Newspoll
WAYNE Swan’s budget attack on middle-class welfare has failed to erode the Labor Party’s support among voters, although Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has tumbled by six percentage points in the past fortnight.
Voter approval for Malcolm Turnbull is up four percentage points on the back of his response to the budget.
The findings emerged in a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, which also found that despite 45 per cent of voters believing the budget was good for the economy, only 30 per cent believed the Treasurer’s assurance it would return to surplus within six years.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25504467-601,00.html
Gorton was PM and in the senate. But that got messy wit his serach for a lower house possie.
Tony Jones says “Labor has taken a hit”.
I guess the interview was recorded before Newspoll was released/leaked.
MT still is in negative territory – 42% disapproval and 40% approval 😉
real big endorsement of your head hancho when more people dislike than like him 😀
[I don’t think thats true, weren’t there some PM’s from the senate in the early days?
Can Adam or some of the other walking-encyclopedia’s produce (what i assume is a rather short list) of all the PM’s, Treasurers and Opposition Leaders that served in the senate?]
Not sure, not since the Liberal Party of Australia has been around anyway. Even if it did happen in the early days, that’s sort of irrelevant now for Bob Brown isn’t it?
The Heyson
start of list:
John Gorton.
end of list.
Oh no, he’s mentioning Newspoll. But focusing on personal satisfaction.
and Manmohan Singh, PM of India is in the Indian Upper house.
Polyquats from the previous thread,
[
polyquats
Posted Monday, May 18, 2009 at 8:37 pm | Permalink
GP
The thing is, never in 12 years did we hear of similar antics from John Howard.
That would be the “I won’t live in the Lodge” John Howard? Nice little hissy fit that drained the taxpayer’s purse for the whole of his term. Makes a hairdryer or meal look like small beer indeed.
]
Post of the day 😀 – good job, Poly
Cuppa,
They took it off the Greens! When economics beckon the Greens are irrelevant.
@12 To be fair Dario, if they went with the 1% change we’d be raging about how that was a smaller percentage change and thus of lesser value.
[Gorton was PM and in the senate. But that got messy wit his serach for a lower house possie.]
I thought the Country Party’s McEwen was PM until Gorton transferred to the lower?
[They took it off the Greens! When economics beckon the Greens are irrelevant.]
You’re an idiot. The Greens are back to 9%, which is what they got in the poll before last and the one before that too. And each Newspoll for them has shown higher support than the Newspolls prior to the 2007 election.
Not surprised, I thought this would happen!
So the end of the Rudd honeymoon lasted all of one day? LMAO
Peter Hartcher is the new “Shanahan”?
24 February 1968
Interesting bit of history:
[24 February 1968 – This by-election for Harold Holt’s safe Liberal seat of Higgins was the means by which Gorton entered the House of Representatives. The head of government is drawn from the House of Representatives and, although elected leader of his party, as a senator, Gorton could not be the Prime Minister. In the by-election, Labor opposed him and the Democratic Labor Party did not nominate a candidate. Gorton obtained 69.4 per cent of the vote, beating Holt’s previous best return for the seat in 1955 by 5 per cent.]
But he was the only one to start in the Senate, I believe
[Tony Jones says “Labor has taken a hit”.
I guess the interview was recorded before Newspoll was released/leaked.]
No, he put the poll numbers to Rudd in the interview. Just the usual TJ bulls**t really.
Rudd’s either got a great poker face or he knew the results. No face muscles twitching when Tony Jones told him the 56/44.
Gorton became PM on 10th January 1968 (whilst in the Senate) but vacated that position on 1st February and won the seat of Higgins on 24th February in a by-election. We won’t be seeing anyone from that seat become PM anytime soon. 🙂
I thought Blackjack McEwen was PM until the Holt search was called off.
Gorton was elected PM while in the Senate. But ran and won Holt’s seat of Higgins. Holt of course vacating the seat for the better climes of a Chinese submarine, allegedly.
This Newspoll has the best outcome for Labor.
1. Allows Rudd to kill off “we are not tough enough” mantra
2. TPP is up
3. Turnbull goes nowhere.
How better can it get.
vera
[Amigo GG?I wonder if the US green groups will be as scathing at Obi’s 17% targets as ours were at Rudds 15% and now possible 25% Still no critisism of this by Obi fans who got stuck into Rudd I notice]
I’m not entirely sure on this but isn’t Obi’s 17% below 2005 levels, whilst Rudd uses 2000 levels? Really we should be using 1990 levels, my pet-peeve is that they don’t standardize this!
Yes, I suspect they are. That plan is a total crock but still seems better than I had imagined.
[They took it off the Greens! When economics beckon the Greens are irrelevant.]
Down 2 with a MoE of + or – 3.
All the minor parties seem to fluctuate between between a certain range.
nah he was made PM as a senator before he won higgins in a by-election
$300 billion! The Governor General should sack the Prime Minister immediately for gross incompetence.
Night all Bludgers. As usual it’s taken us about 30 posts to move off topic and onto John Gorton!! 😀
[They took it off the Greens! When economics beckon the Greens are irrelevant.]
So he says two days after they take a Labor seat. I love the consternation.
[3. Turnbull goes nowhere.
How better can it get.]
To be fair, Turnbull did move from 19% to 24% on Preferred PM.
That in itself is a 25% rise!
[Rudd’s either got a great poker face or he knew the results. No face muscles twitching when Tony Jones told him the 56/44.]
I’ve heard the leaders’ offices both get told the results of the polls quite a bit prior to their release.
So if an apparent hit in the polls (which ended up being non-existent) was reason for Labor to have second thoughts about a DD, does a rise mean they should pursue it harder? Wonder how the journo’s will spin their logic.
Rudd on Lateline seems re-energised and has come out swinging – certainly putting Tony back in his box.