Newspoll: 56-44

Don’t ask me how, but Peter Brent at Mumble seems to have the scoop on Newspoll. Labor’s lead is up slightly on a fortnight ago, from 55-45 to 56-44. Better news for them still on the primary vote, up four points to 46 per cent with the Coalition down one to 34 per cent. Despite this, Kevin Rudd has recorded his weakest personal ratings since October, his approval down six points to 58 per cent and his disapproval up five to 31 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s position has improved, his approval up four points to 40 per cent and his disapproval down three to 42 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 64-19 to 58-24.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,580 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. Gorton was the only Senator chosen as PM, and he immediately resigned and ran for a Reps seat.

    Curiously, the Indian PM, Manmohan Singh, is a member of the Rajya Sabha, the unelected upper house of the Indian Parliament. No-one seems to mind.

  2. Bob,

    I have playfully ignored your nonsense to date. If William allows you to continue your personal abuse of myself, then I will retaliate.

  4. So Labor is UP in Newspoll. Now I know why they didnt release today. Let Neislen get out the Labor is down in the polls due to the budget

  6. GG – I didn’t remember that the seat of Higgins had such a significant history. The current member has found a less dramatic and more drawn out way to disappear without trace than Harold’s Chinese method.

  12. ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 18, 2009 at 6:18 pm | Permalink
    [The two-party vote decides the result. Labor got 54% with the Greens on 46%. End of story.
    This is not how it works. The two party preferred result is determined by the candidates who receive the most, and second most, number of primary votes. The Greens received the third most, and thus will be excluded from the final vote count.]

    This is scarey. To have such ignorance of how the system works on a psephology site. No wonder the majority of the general public have no clue!

  13. Bob (in the previous thread):

    Phil Cleary wasn’t elected to the Reps until April or May 1992. He wasn’t actively engaged in politics at the time of the first Gulf War.
    I’ve little doubt he was opposed to the Australian commitment, but it’s unlikely that he has contemporaneous evidence for such a stance.
    Also apropos an earlier thread, I have the misfortune to reside in Menzies.
    (William apologies for my non-mastery of the quotes protocol).

  16. [I have playfully ignored your nonsense to date.]

    The nonsense is coming from you. The Green polling is unchanged, three of the last four Newspoll results for the Greens has been 9%. None of this ‘fleeing the Greens in tough economic times’ rubbish please. We all know your hatred of anything non-Labor.

  19. [This is scarey. To have such ignorance of how the system works on a psephology site. No wonder the majority of the general public have no clue!]

    Tell me about it! First and second highest primaries battle on 2pp – what lullery!!

  20. [So he says two days after they take a Labor seat. I love the consternation.]

    But they’ll lose the Balance of Power in the Upper House as of Friday 🙂

  24. Bob,

    You need to apologise for your intemperate name calling otherwise I ‘ll never be able to take you hand wringing or finger pointing seriously.

  26. why doesnt Rudd point out that two reports commissioned by Costello recommended a pension increase to 67 years AND the opposition supports it.

  28. Adam etc., how many, if any, tresurers and opposition leaders were senators? Would I be right in guessing that there have been no tresurer senators due to the money bills clause in the constitution?

    The Finnigans
    [The hotpants will always be more PINK under Don Dunstan.]
    Don was a champ! We need more pollies like him!

  30. Yes – Neilsen was definately a rogue poll because this one has higher support for Labor.

    Such is the level of sophistication amongst the majority of posters here.

  31. [You need to apologise for your intemperate name calling otherwise I ‘ll never be able to take you hand wringing or finger pointing seriously.]

    Read my last reply to you. It’s your choice, but I have no need for you to take me seriously, after all you seem to think 9% represents a collapse in the Green vote due to tough economic times. Such lullery.

  32. I dont mind Jones doing a robust if a bit hostile interview. I do think that Rudd looks a bit defensive and doesnt need to do so. He looks a bit rattled

  35. [Yes – Neilsen was definately a rogue poll because this one has higher support for Labor.

    Such is the level of sophistication amongst the majority of posters here.]

    Roy Morgan, Essential Research, and Newspoll all record swings to Labor. Nielsen is the odd one out. Here’s a tissue, I know it must hurt. Suck it up princess 🙂

  36. [But they’ll lose the Balance of Power in the Upper House as of Friday]

    I’m sure they’re very sad about the idea of doubling their Upper House representation.

  37. Well, if this poll’s a ‘hit’, who needs near misses? LOL.

    Hear that noise, folks? That’s the last surviving Lib fantasy of a 2010 win being marched behind the bunker and shot.

  38. The government needs to be clearer about debt/deficits in Australia compared to other major economies. Whilst Newspoll has improved 2PP for Labor, the economy has been federal labors weakness polling wise so they need to get the message out there

  40. Harold Holt will be 101 in August, which is getting on a bit even for a Chinese admiral.

    Higgins is the only seat to have been held by two Prime Ministers, but there are two seats which have been held by three party leaders…

  41. [Rudd the only thing down the leg side is your $300 billion national debt.]

    Where’d the other $110 billion come from?

  42. I’m sure its the approval and PPM that will be focussed on tomorrow to continue the “labor takes a hit” narrative, although i am impressed with the OO’s initial headline. Wonder how many in the MSM will mention that the 2PP is UP for Labor

  44. No 91

    Rudd said on Lateline that peak debt will be 13.8% of GDP, which in dollar terms is $300 billion.

    Extraodinary in both size and incompetence.

  46. [Yes – Neilsen was definately a rogue poll because this one has higher support for Labor. ]

    And of course you know better

  48. Dario
    [I think Bartlett & NSD were the 2 Dems that voted against it (of 7)]

    Who were “The Gang of Four” that the media told me about? What did that refer to? (other than CCP stuff)

    Obama is in a tough position over Guentanamo Bay, cant see any good way out of it for him. I think they will have to close it eventually though coz (not sure on this so someone please back me up if true) I think the deal with leasing it from Cuba only has a couple of decades left. After that, they’ll have to give it back like Hong Kong of Macau.

  49. The Harold Holt Memorial Swimming Pool in Malvern says so much about Australians’ regard for politicians and our outlook on ironic solemnity.

  50. George Megalogenis has destroyed any credibility the Libs have on deficits and debt. First on Insiders and today with his article in The Australian.

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