Budget minus three days

No Morgan poll this week – in a half-baked attempt to tie the headline to the post, here’s a link to an analysis by Possum posing the question, “is there a polling budget effect?&#148 (short answer: no). With that out of the way:

• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports on the demise of a Queensland Coalition deal in which Barnaby Joyce was to move to the lower house and Liberal Senator Russell Trood was to maintain the existing balance in the Senate by joining the Nationals. The Liberals’ end of the deal was reportedly vetoed by federal Liberal president Alan Stockdale, prompting Joyce to angrily declare he would not be moving from the Senate. Trood’s factional ally, former state Liberal president Bob Carroll, says he would stake his life on Trood never agreeing to sit in the Nationals rather than the Liberal party room. This would seem to be a pretty big call, given that Trood’s alternative is to stay in the surely unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal National ticket.

• Fans of factional argybargy can unearth a motherlode of detail on Labor’s western Melbourne fiefdoms from the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. Among the matters examined is the highly fraught preselection for last year’s Kororoit by-election, with the Ombudsman recommending an investigation into a possible breach of the Local Government Act by failed aspirant and former mayor Natalie Suleyman. It is alleged that a funding decision for a sports ground redevelopment was influenced by a desire to win the support of Keilor MP and Right powerbroker George Seitz, and that efforts were made to withdraw the funding when Seitz failed to come through.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC notes that preselection nominations for federal Liberal seats in WA close in less than three weeks, so those gunning for the removal of Pearce MP Judi Moylan and O’Connor MP Wilson Tuckey don’t have long to get their act together. Matt Brown tells Kennedy he hasn’t made up his mind whether to launch a second challenge against Dennis Jensen in Tangney, although jockeying in local branches suggests otherwise.

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports that Bronwyn Bishop’s hold on the larger branches in her electorate of Mackellar has “slipped”. One of the potential challengers, believe it or not, is former state Opposition Leader John Brogden. Another is a blast from an even more distant past – Jim Longley, who preceded Brogden as member for the local state seat of Pittwater.

• Western Australia’s minority Liberal-National government lost a vote in the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday, which I believe to be the first defeat for a government there in 17 years. At issue was a highly contentious bill to replace preferential voting at local government elections with first-past-the-post. However, the defeat resulted from the absence of four ministers from the chamber, and the bill was passed on a second attempt later in the day. The subject of the bill itself is obviously worth discussion, which I will attend to eventually. For whatever reason, the seemingly retrograde measure has the support of the Western Australian Local Government Association.

• A report by the Youth Electoral Study for the Australian Electoral Commission finds 20 per cent of youths aged 18 to 25 are not enrolled to vote, and “close to half” wouldn’t vote if it wasn’t compulsory. Those who went to private schools or were subjected to civics classes were somewhat more enthusiastic.

• You might recall some chat last month about a looming referendum on the introduction of a Hare-Clark style electoral system in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Well, that’s happening on Tuesday.

• Possum’s favourite word, “spiffy”, doesn’t do justice to his infographic electoral demographic displays.

• If it’s analysis of major party submissions for the federal redistribution in New South Wales you’re after, Ben Raue of The Tally Room is unequivocally your man.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

596 comments on “Budget minus three days”

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  1. [THE forecast jobless rate would be as high as 10 per cent without the stimulus measures the Government has put in place according to Treasury advice, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.

    The advice, to be published in the Budget which will be unveiled tomorrow night, says the nearly $90 billion in stimulus spending has helped to reduce unemployment queues, Mr Rudd said.

    “This Treasury advice finds that if the Government had done nothing, national unemployment in Australia would have been forecast to reach 10 per cent,” he said.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25461801-5005962,00.html

    Now let’s hear GP be unpatriotic and talk about how this must be untrue, because we know that rusted Liberals like him would prefer Australia to tank and the Liberals get back in to power, than for Labor and Australia to succeed in getting out of this recession in a much less brutal way.

  3. Sky News apparently bullied the government so we won’t get that ABC News and Current Affairs channel

  4. [They didn’t just spend money, they committed to future spending on an ongoing basis.]
    They did commit to a lot of one off payments, which people then expected to get every year.

    IMO those one off payments were just an admission of policy failures, they were admitting that the pension wasn’t high enough for example.

  6. I agree with bob. At this point the coalition has opposed tax increases, then opposed spending increases, opposed higher debt, yet still demanded local action to fix a global problem. The only conclusion you can reach is that they are all salivating at the prospect of a recession, and will even deliberately act to encourage one, in hopes that it gives them an election win. As for the million or so Australians who would be unemployed in such a recession, they are as expendable as the low payed workers who were targetted under WorkChoices.

    Of course, this strategy will backfire badly when people see that the Liberals senate obstruction has made things worse, and that the government’s actions so far have worked.

  7. ShowsON

    Never mind the one off payments to pensioners – tax cuts, baby bonuses, rebates to farmers, property investors and deductions on super contributions and capital gains for those nearing retirement were all permanent measures, that need to be repealed in legislation.

  9. Socrates, the opposition went from the thinking that the election was a mistake and that the public would turn on Rudd soon enough, to thinking that once the recession comes government will fall back in their laps. The reality is though that they have made a complete balls up of the issue, and have not had a coherent argument and policy alternative. They have indeed squandered any political benefit they may have gained. They have not been helped by a government that has clearly articulated its policy and the impact of global factors

  10. Will the pension increase and the cuts to high/middle class welfare be in the same bill? So the Libs will then be blocking the pension increase if they vote against it?
    [Sky News apparently bullied the government so we won’t get that ABC News and Current Affairs channel]
    thank feck for that!

  11. [for those nearing retirement were all permanent measures, that need to be repealed in legislation.]
    I see your point, but my broader point is that when governments put one off hand out payments in budget after budget, people EXPECT more and more every year. So in the long run, it just debases proper policy reform.
    [Sky News apparently bullied the government so we won’t get that ABC News and Current Affairs channel]
    ABC doesn’t deserve funding for another channel when they only use ABC2 for 10 hours a day, and most of it is repeats of things they show on ABC1.

  13. ShowsOn 511

    Agreed; I was concerned about the budget impact but you are right – there is a bad impact on community expectations and the enthusiasm for genuine reform.

  14. From Possum

    Today’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 50 (up 3) /33 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a 4 point jump to Labor from last week’s result. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1984, for an MoE of around the 2.2% mark.

  20. I think it’s safe to say that while the Liberals are led by the likes of Howard, Nelson, Turnbull, and Costello, the polling won’t change all that much.

  22. [Q. From July the Government is due to honour its election promise to introduce tax cuts for those on higher incomes – in view of the current economic
    situation, do you think the Government should introduce those tax cuts or should they be deferred]
    [Should introduce tax cuts 35%
    Should defer tax cuts 49%
    Don’t know 16% ]
    [Q. The Government has announced changes to its emissions trading scheme to combat climate change. These changes include delaying introduction
    of the scheme until 2011, reducing the cost of carbon emissions, and setting higher targets for reduction if other countries do the same. Do you
    approve or disapprove of these changes?]
    [Total approve 49%
    Total disapprove 31%
    Strongly approve 13%
    Approve 36%
    Disapprove 22%
    Strongly disapprove 9%
    Don’t know 20% ]
    [Q. The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has announced the commitment of another 450 troops to Afghanistan which will bring the total number of
    Australian troops to about 1,550. Do you support or oppose this increase in the number of Australian forces in Afghanistan? ]
    [Total support 36%
    Total oppose 49%
    Strongly support 11%
    Support 25%
    Oppose 29%
    Strongly oppose 20%
    Don’t know 15%]

  23. I’m surprised about the changes to the CPRS receiving so much support. I guess the potential for higher targets is what interests most people, more so than the 1 year delay in the introduction.

  24. I think what’s pretty interesting is that even though twice as many people think the budget will be bad for them as those who think it will good, this still translates into 4 point swing for a 61/39 2PP.

    So even though people think the budget will be tough they are willing to accept and/or they think the Libs would have an even worse budget.

  25. The argument goes, the polls are high for Rudd because he is “acting like Father Christmas” with the stimpacs but on the other hand apparently the polls show people don’t like the handouts and are sceptical. Please explain.

  26. I don’t think Afghanistan is going to be much of an issue. The moment the Libs oppose our efforts there they would be opening themselves up to such a ‘cut and run’ beating. Of that you can be sure.

  27. [The argument goes, the polls are high for Rudd because he is “acting like Father Christmas” with the stimpacs but on the other hand apparently the polls show people don’t like the handouts and are sceptical. Please explain.]

    Polls have been like this since December 2006. They’re idiots.

  28. [So even though people think the budget will be tough they are willing to accept and/or they think the Libs would have an even worse budget.]
    I think most people think the budget will be bad for them simply because budgets during recessions normally are much tougher than those made when the economy is going strong. I think people’s response to that question is a reflection on the state of the economy more than anything else.

  29. [I’m surprised about the changes to the CPRS receiving so much support. I guess the potential for higher targets is what interests most people, more so than the 1 year delay in the introduction.]

    I find it funny that the same amount of Labor and Liberal supporters support the changes, presumably for different reasons.

    The problem with the questions on ETS is that there’s only one negative answer and it’s hard to tell if people disagree with the scheme because they think it’s too strong or too weak.

    In this case the same could be said for the positive response. Most likely that Labor supports like the higher target whereas the Liberal supporters like the delay.

  31. [the polls are high for Rudd because ]

    The voters like, respect and trust Rudd, and think he is trying to do the right thing in difficult circumstances not of his making. They are willing to cut him a lot of slack on specific policy issues, particularly very complex ones that few people really undertstand. That’s all you need to know for now.

  32. The problem for the Libs is that they agree with the government on Afghanistan, one of the few bloody things they do agree with them on. How ironic.

  33. [The problem with the questions on ETS is that there’s only one negative answer and it’s hard to tell if people disagree with the scheme because they think it’s too strong or too weak.]

    There was oppose and strongly oppose. The question was actually do you support the changes, not the CPRS itself. A little disingenuous really.

  34. GB

    The polls are high for Rudd because people like a recession and the chance of losing their job. After all, this recession is Rudd’s fault, Turnbull said so.

  35. Can only stay for a minute but gee I’m laughing about that Essential Poll.

    Listened to Hockey on Agenda this pm and his usual diatribe was spouted. All vitriol and bad humour.

    And then Essential bought out the Poll figures. Gawd – that will keep my mob going for days.

    Swannie is looking a bit relaxed today so I’ve got my chair ready for tomorrow night.

    Good one, Juliem – North M did well.

  36. [There was oppose and strongly oppose.]

    Yes. This doesn’t solve the problem of whether they “oppose or strongly oppose” the moves to strengthen it, or too weaken it. And whilst this is specific to the changes, the same issue comes up with the previous polls on the ETS where the option is to oppose it but we don’t know how many oppose it because they think it goes too far or not far enough.

  37. [Yes. This doesn’t solve the problem of whether they “oppose or strongly oppose” the moves to strengthen it, or too weaken it. And whilst this is specific to the changes, the same issue comes up with the previous polls on the ETS where the option is to oppose it but we don’t know how many oppose it because they think it goes too far or not far enough.]

    Ah, I get you. Yes, it is hard to know exactly where everyone stands. It’s a lot like the republican issue really… most are in favour of a republic but can’t agree on a model.

  39. I think with an issue as complex as the ETS it’s difficult to resolve that kind of problem since there’s so many variables. The more complicated you make the polling (eg. by adding responses like “do you support it because of a,b,c or d OR do you oppose it because of a, b, c or d) the less reliable your results are going to be.

    Identifying community responses to the ETS is probably worth a PHD.

  40. [Gary @473 that article is a typical beat up, the ones bitching about not getting anything are the ones who allready got a cheuqe in the first stimpac! greedy gutses!]
    Vera,
    No true. I’ve realised I will miss out too. The reason is because I made the transition from welfare to work in the second half of the last financial year. So I got all my tax back. So nothing from the first round, and nothing in the second either. So while there are some people grizzling about not getting two bites of the cherry, some of us are really going to miss out. I am really bitching, and have already shot off an email to Kev! I needed that money for urgent dental work.

  42. [So I got all my tax back.]

    polyquats, thats the kicker. The Govt has always said you had to pay tax last financial year to get the $900. Even if it was just $1.

    You did not pay tax – hence no $900. Many people misunderstood this but it was spelled out pretty clearly. 🙁

  43. [polyquats, thats the kicker. The Govt has always said you had to pay tax last financial year to get the $900. Even if it was just $1.]

    Heh, I didn’t work last financial year but I did start JUST after the June 30 cut off.

    Was pretty devastated, but got over it soon enough.

  44. [Surprise surprise, the Nationals will not support any ETS.]
    Which completely kills of the Coalition’s credibility on climate change, because the Liberals wouldn’t be able to get any policy through the senate without at least the support of the Greens.

  46. Ruawake,
    Well advice varied between ‘lodged tax return’ and ‘paid tax’; it has been very confusing.
    But I was really replying to Vera’s point, that everyone got one or the other of the stimpacs, and those complaining were hoping to double dip. This isn’t true. Some of us really missed out, simply because of the way the hand out was done. If I’d started work a month earlier, I might have got this stimpac, if I’d stayed on welfare I’d have got the other. I missed both because of the timing of starting work. I think I have the right to feel a bit p1ssed off!

  47. […the Liberals wouldn’t be able to get any policy through the senate without at least the support of the Greens.]

    The Liberals need to form Govt. first. A major problem. 😛

  48. I’m sure if the Coalition were to win government backdown Barnaby would find some way to support an ETS.

    For instance, by demanding cash for the country.

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