No Morgan poll this week – in a half-baked attempt to tie the headline to the post, here’s a link to an analysis by Possum posing the question, “is there a polling budget effect?” (short answer: no). With that out of the way:
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports on the demise of a Queensland Coalition deal in which Barnaby Joyce was to move to the lower house and Liberal Senator Russell Trood was to maintain the existing balance in the Senate by joining the Nationals. The Liberals’ end of the deal was reportedly vetoed by federal Liberal president Alan Stockdale, prompting Joyce to angrily declare he would not be moving from the Senate. Trood’s factional ally, former state Liberal president Bob Carroll, says he would stake his life on Trood never agreeing to sit in the Nationals rather than the Liberal party room. This would seem to be a pretty big call, given that Trood’s alternative is to stay in the surely unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal National ticket.
• Fans of factional argybargy can unearth a motherlode of detail on Labor’s western Melbourne fiefdoms from the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. Among the matters examined is the highly fraught preselection for last year’s Kororoit by-election, with the Ombudsman recommending an investigation into a possible breach of the Local Government Act by failed aspirant and former mayor Natalie Suleyman. It is alleged that a funding decision for a sports ground redevelopment was influenced by a desire to win the support of Keilor MP and Right powerbroker George Seitz, and that efforts were made to withdraw the funding when Seitz failed to come through.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC notes that preselection nominations for federal Liberal seats in WA close in less than three weeks, so those gunning for the removal of Pearce MP Judi Moylan and O’Connor MP Wilson Tuckey don’t have long to get their act together. Matt Brown tells Kennedy he hasn’t made up his mind whether to launch a second challenge against Dennis Jensen in Tangney, although jockeying in local branches suggests otherwise.
• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports that Bronwyn Bishop’s hold on the larger branches in her electorate of Mackellar has “slipped”. One of the potential challengers, believe it or not, is former state Opposition Leader John Brogden. Another is a blast from an even more distant past – Jim Longley, who preceded Brogden as member for the local state seat of Pittwater.
• Western Australia’s minority Liberal-National government lost a vote in the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday, which I believe to be the first defeat for a government there in 17 years. At issue was a highly contentious bill to replace preferential voting at local government elections with first-past-the-post. However, the defeat resulted from the absence of four ministers from the chamber, and the bill was passed on a second attempt later in the day. The subject of the bill itself is obviously worth discussion, which I will attend to eventually. For whatever reason, the seemingly retrograde measure has the support of the Western Australian Local Government Association.
• A report by the Youth Electoral Study for the Australian Electoral Commission finds 20 per cent of youths aged 18 to 25 are not enrolled to vote, and “close to half” wouldn’t vote if it wasn’t compulsory. Those who went to private schools or were subjected to civics classes were somewhat more enthusiastic.
• You might recall some chat last month about a looming referendum on the introduction of a Hare-Clark style electoral system in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Well, that’s happening on Tuesday.
• Possum’s favourite word, “spiffy”, doesn’t do justice to his infographic electoral demographic displays.
• If it’s analysis of major party submissions for the federal redistribution in New South Wales you’re after, Ben Raue of The Tally Room is unequivocally your man.
Of course if things look better for Australia you know what the argument against Rudd will be then don’t you.
Bk – You can’t help notice the contrast between Swan’s interview today and his interviews of early last year either. His learning curve has been steep. He comes over as very confident and all over his subject now.
[Oz, what limit of dollars would you set if not $150,000?]
I’m not sure juliem, but given $150,000 is almost three times the median wage I’m not sure it can deservedly be called dealing with middle-class welfare.
So who thinks Costello will do a doorstop interview tomorrow to mark ‘Peter Costello is Irrelevant Day’ like he did last year?
But that highlights how good the government is at politicking.
The means testing will not effect the vast majority of Australians, so they won’t be on the receiving ends of higher costs but the government gets kudos for “slashing/hammering/taking an axe to middle class welfare”.
[So who thinks Costello will do a doorstop interview tomorrow to mark ‘Peter Costello is Irrelevant Day’ like he did last year?]
ROFLOL
🙂
[The means testing will not effect the vast majority of Australians, so they won’t be on the receiving ends of higher costs but the government gets kudos for]
Some professional women earning between $100,000 and $150,000 would already receive paid maternity leave from their employers. So they will get two lots of paid maternity leave.
[ROFLOL]
Wasn’t it the infamous doorstop where he told Michelle Grattan to get a new [glasses] prescription?
Yes, they will be giving alternate views, alernate to the truth. However there is no law that
newspapers have to tell the truth, especially when it is couched in ‘opinion’.
I guess the problem with alternate media views at the moment is that the alternate views
are increasingly becoming the only views. And the alternative views seem to be forming one long
pattern over the years…but have to agree if you pick up the DT you get what you deserve, rather
like peering into a pit of cockroaches.
Garry B
Yes, you are right. Swan has improved immensely. He is by means a weak link – even if he were (Iknow it’s unlikely) to be pitted against Costello instead of the lightweights the opposition has fronted with so far.
His big test will be how much proper structural change he brings in this time around plus after the major taxation/social security study which is nearing completion.
Shows
[Wasn’t it the infamous doorstop where he told Michelle Grattan to get a new [glasses] prescription?]
Wonder what this years pithy remark will be?
God Costello’s a dropkick
Today’s Ross Gittin’s article is a must read:
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/tax-cuts-replace-howardinvented-cash-splash-20090510-az6d.html?page=-1
I Didn’t hear Costello on Aw this morning. I could go to the link but I want to hold my food down.
[Wonder what this years pithy remark will be?
God Costello’s a dropkick]
How about this one …
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/gloomy-pm-threatens-confidence-costello/2008/11/26/1227491636548.html
Sydney Morning Herald, 27 November 2008
[“Nobody around the world is saying that Australia will go into recession. The only people that seem to me to be maximising the talk of doom and gloom are the Government themselves,” Mr Costello said in an interview with the Herald.]
Funny, I heard the Fiberals moths ago banging on about THE RISK OF A RUDD RECESSION.
Every treasurer has improved after their first run at the track, including the master (Keating). Swan is no different. Do you think he has accumulated all his economic knowledge over the last year? Those who labelled Swan as a weak link, including those here on the Labor side, were wrong! Those who said he was the real deal, like me 🙂 were right!
[The means testing will not effect the vast majority of Australians, so they won’t be on the receiving ends of higher costs but the government gets kudos for]
It’s a start. And if the means test is not indexed then in time it will cover more people as inflation pushes salaries higher.
The United States was in recession in November, 2008. Whenever the U.S. goes into recession, so does Australia. How Costello thinks the U.S. can go into recession, but Australia avoid one I have no idea. He should stick to being a lawyer.
Oh, OK Centre, YOU WERE RIGHT! There, does that feel better. By the way I wasn’t one of those detractors you refer to, nor did I question Swan’s economic abilities.
Oz just wants everything to happen immediately no matter what the political consequences, like with the ETS. It’s an argument but I’m sure political suicide is not high on Rudd’s lists of things to do.
As an economics commentator Costello makes a good … um … backbencher.
“There, does that feel better.”
Yes
😀
I like sh!t stirring 🙂
421,
[
Michael Costa (born 15 July 1956) is an Australian politician. He was a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council from 2001 until 2008, and Treasurer of New South Wales from 2006 to 2008.
]
He is a crab {Cancer} (Zodiac) or a Fire Monkey (Chinese) pending which school of thought, if at all, you follow.
[
http://www.tuvy.com/entertainment/horoscope/fire_monkey.htm
]
So while he might act like a rat, pig or snake; not quite the right animal in fact 😀
Another negative article about the cash splash. No, not pokies.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/millions-to-miss-out-on-rudds-stimulus-payment-20090511-azp5.html
443,
[
Dario
Posted Monday, May 11, 2009 at 1:44 pm | Permalink
Swan slaughters these arguments
He did very well
]
Augers very well for QT this week 😀
So do people want everyone to get the cash splash or not? Are people happy with the idea or not? Sheee
[Oz just wants everything to happen immediately no matter what the political consequences, like with the ETS. It’s an argument but I’m sure political suicide is not high on Rudd’s lists of things to do.]
Oz must be channeling Queen 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdWxf1tRmI
Gary @473 that article is a typical beat up, the ones bitching about not getting anything are the ones who allready got a cheuqe in the first stimpac! greedy gutses!
[People on Centrelink benefits, who do not have to pay tax, will also miss out on the payments but Dr Dirkis said most would have received bonuses in the Rudd Government’s first stimulus package distributed last December.
Self-funded retiree Stuart Robley received a bonus about Christmas time but was disappointed he would not receive anything in the current package.]
[ Whenever the U.S. goes into recession, so does Australia.]
The US economy was in recession from March to November 2001 and Australia was not.
[I Didn’t hear Costello on Aw this morning. I could go to the link but I want to hold my food down.]
LOL! HERE HE IS! Right on time!
[We’re in debt for 20 years – Peter Costello]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25461556-601,00.html
[The US economy was in recession from March to November 2001 and Australia was not.]
True. We only had one quarter of negative growth, and one quarter of zero growth.
Oz @ 453,
[
Oz
Posted Monday, May 11, 2009 at 2:58 pm | Permalink
Oz, what limit of dollars would you set if not $150,000?
I’m not sure juliem, but given $150,000 is almost three times the median wage I’m not sure it can deservedly be called dealing with middle-class welfare.
]
Without getting too specific, my family has a taxable income in an amount of 45 to 55% of the quoted $150,000. We get both FTB’s (A & B). We have our FTB purposely backloaded (so living on less each week than governmentally entitled to) so our tax refund is a reasonable amount annually. We don’t owe anything major and pay off credit cards monthly. We save a little bit off of every pay period, some more than others. We spend carefully both in the grocery stores and elsewhere, buying generic or house brands where possible. Without the FTB we would have a tough time making ends meet even under those conditions and spending habits. And that includes the fact that being a Defence family and living in a DHA house we (1) don’t have to pay water bills (no Defence family does if you live in a DHA house) and (2) we pay rent but at a subsidized cost; I’ll take a stab in the dark and say it is 70% of market value? Rent and water come out of the gross pay, we don’t see them, they are “off of the top”. If we had to live in the civilian world paying water and rent off of the same amount of takehome pay, we would be toast. Long and short of this example is that $150,000 in the civilian world isn’t as much as you think it is. (We are a family of 4; Mum, Dad and 8 & 11yo kids)
Costello:
[It is quit possible that Mr Swan has put this country into a debt that will not be repaid in our lifetimes.]
Wonderful! This means Costello intends to die 20 years from now! 😀
Perhaps it’s time someone asked Costello why, under his treasurership, the Coalition spent $314 billion in their last term in office.
[Self-funded retiree Stuart Robley received a bonus about Christmas time but was disappointed he would not receive anything in the current package]
Greedy f’ing sod
[Perhaps it’s time someone asked Costello why, under his treasurership, the Coalition spent $314 billion in their last term in office.]
His reply will be “well, we had the money, so we thought we may as well spend it.”
[Self-funded retiree Stuart Robley received a bonus about Christmas time but was disappointed he would not receive anything in the current package]
There is a strange paradox in Australia, the more tax people pay, the more money they think they should receive back from the government.
[His reply will be “well, we had the money, so we thought we may as well spend it.”]
What happened to the notion of saving for a rainy day? The Coalition economic gurus must have known that no boom lasts forever. Or did they? After their record-breaking spendathon they left a mere 20 billion “surplus”, less than the value of one stimulus package. That was all that remained in the government’s hands of the mining boom bonanza: 20 billion.
[The Coalition economic gurus must have known that no boom lasts forever.]
Why would they care? They knew they were unlikely to be the government at the time the boom ended.
[He is a crab {Cancer} (Zodiac) or a Fire Monkey (Chinese) pending which school of thought, if at all, you follow.]
These are not schools of thought. They are schools of absence of thought.
[What happened to the notion of saving for a rainy day? The Coalition economic gurus must have known that no boom lasts forever.]
Government’s should spend less during boom times to curb inflation, and more in economic downturn. The Howard government did the opposite, which is why interest rates had to be raised so many times during 2006 and 2007.
Costello is hilarious though! He says the Howard government DID rein in spending, but he thinks they should’ve cut taxes more!
[Mr Costello claimed the Howard government reined in spending, but said he regretted not doing more to cut taxes.
“I believed that we should cut taxes,” he said. “I think if I look back on it we should have cut taxes, I’d rather have cut taxes by more.”]
So he thinks the Howard government should’ve reined in spending, not by ending middle class welfare, but by lowering government revenues so the government would have less money to give away as middle class welfare.
Therefore, Costello has just admitted the Howard government had no idea how to cut government spending. But hey, Liberals propose cutting taxes to solve every problem. It also demonstrates Costello’s hypocrisy, as Ross Gittens points out today, tax cuts are really a cash splash by a different name, the difference is really psychological:
[…we “frame” tax cuts so differently, seeing them as somehow more legitimate. With a cash splash it’s another case of politicians trying to buy favour by wasting my tax money on the undeserving.
With a tax cut, by contrast, I’m merely getting back some of the tax I’ve already paid. What I do with that returned money is my business and no one else’s.
Among those who believe us to be grossly over-taxed, any tax cut that comes our way is a step in the right direction and intrinsically legitimate, regardless of the state of the budget balance.]
So Costello is saying is greatest regret is that he didn’t spend ENOUGH money, he should’ve been handing out more, instead of increasing funding for schools, hospitals, universities, roads, rail, and a national broadband network.
Ahh, good old Baaaarnaby is predicting the end of State Governments.
[The Nationals’ leader in the Senate, Barnaby Joyce, says the economic downturn will hasten the end of the state government system.
Senator Joyce believes there has been a steady move towards centralisation of power in Australia and some states would be bankrupt without Commonwealth help.
He says a dramatic increase in public debt levels expected in the next few years will make it difficult to justify three levels of government.
“Unfortunately the reality of the financial ramifications of where we are currently further exacerbates this shift because our nation, is quickly getting to a situation where it won’t be able to afford three tiers of government and the states are the ones that will be removed,” he said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2566897.htm?section=justin
Howard didn’t care about saving money for a rainy day, his objective was always to win the next election. It wasn’t about the nation, it wasn’t about the economy, it wasn’t about his party, it WAS about breaking Menzies’ record, which he failed to do!
[Why would they care? They knew they were unlikely to be the government at the time the boom ended.]
Surely they were TRYING to stay in government. Remember, big spending conservatism has become orthodox centre-right policy, it was George W Bush’s economic agenda.
I’m going to make a prediction that I actually don’t believe I’m making? By Thursday morning the MSM will have gotten so sick over negative reporting about the budget that they will then pressure Turnbull to explain his alternatives!
just checked PM Agenda for the Essential Poll but Spears and Hockey are having a lovefest so switched off. Can someone with a stronger stomach than me let me know when it’s announced? 🙂
[just checked PM Agenda for the Essential Poll but Spears and Hockey are having a lovefest so switched off.]
LOL! This is further confirmation of Adam’s theory that people only subject themselves to media that is supportive of their political leanings.
Essential is usually out by 4:30 so should be soon.
Cuppa
The “Howard economic gurus” worst work was not spending $300 bn and leaving $20bn saved. It was committing in legislation to all the programs that entail ongoing extra spending – all the bonuses, rebates, tax cuts etc, that cost money every year. that coudl only last while the revenue boom lasted. They didn’t just spend money, they committed to future spending on an ongoing basis.
Vera
Very wise giving Agenda and Hockey a miss. The Opposition refuses to acknowledge that the vast majority of deficit in the current and forward estimates is reduction in tax receipts. The so-called “cash splash” hardly figures in the big picture.
[I’m going to make a prediction that I actually don’t believe I’m making? By Thursday morning the MSM will have gotten so sick over negative reporting about the budget that they will then pressure Turnbull to explain his alternatives!]
fat chance
[The “Howard economic gurus” worst work was not spending $300 bn and leaving $20bn saved. It was committing in legislation to all the programs that entail ongoing extra spending – all the bonuses, rebates, tax cuts etc, that cost money every year. that coudl only last while the revenue boom lasted. They didn’t just spend money, they committed to future spending on an ongoing basis.]
Agree 110%