Morgan: 59-41

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor’s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor’s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan’s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).

Elsewhere:

• Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania’s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in Bass at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson’s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the dedicated thread. Further reading from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics. Further coverage tomorrow from Antony Green.

• Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been found guilty for his role in the Lindsay pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of “distributing unauthorised electoral material”, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor “possé” who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.

• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals’ Kooyong preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).

• The Warrnambool Standard reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in Corangamite. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals’ Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Internet expert and former Howard government adviser” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, “Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services”.

• Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an excellent piece for Inside Story.

• After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett reportedly has his eyes on Bass, which Labor’s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.

• If you thought Possum’s booth maps was dope, wait till you see Nathan Lambert’s Google Earth files.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. [PEOPLE are visiting a restaurant in a small town on the California-Mexico border to gaze at an image they believe is the Virgin Mary.]

    #182, why go all the way to Mexhiho, I give you Virgin Mary here at PB:

  2. [But his view on the future of the newspaper industry is dismal. “For most newspapers in the United states, we would not buy them at any price,” he said in response to a question about whether he would consider investing in newspapers. “They have the possibility of going to just unending losses.”]

    #184, Diog, where is Gus when i need him:

    😀

    😉

  3. Another Minister besides Swanny who is thumbing his nose at his detractors (media & Libs) is Fitzgibbon. I saw him on Sky yesterday doing an interview at Garden Island with Gilbert. He was well on top of things and came accross as knowledgeable, confident and straight forward, no BS. He answered all the questions in a way that the ordinary punter could understand. I also like the fact that when he visits the troops in Afganastan he doesn’t just pop in at a base for photo op, a week ago he went out in the “danger zone” or “outside the wire” i think is the term used, with a patrol and met the locals in their villiages and checked on the schools and hospitals being built with our help.
    At the white paper announcement he had a dig at the Libs by saying that it wasn’t much good paying a fortune for stuff so you could pose beside it and get your photo taken, when it was useless as it wasn’t compatable with what we allready have. (not his words but that was the gist of it).
    Talking of photo ops, did anyone see Rudd sitting at the dinner table in the junior sailors mess on the Stuart? He was in the middle with half a dozen sailors sitting either side of him and another dozen on the opposite side, they were all laughing and looking like they were having a good time 😉 .
    When the other half was still in the Navy full time Kim Beasley came on board his ship once and had a brew in the senior sailors mess with him and he reckoned he was a good bloke.

  4. It’s good to see the Boys are in good form. Methinks they were trying to see Virgin Mary over the Vatican:

    [HAVING upset politicians and police in Australia, the mischief makers from The Chaser have declared war on the rest of the world. – In Italy, team members Julian Morrow and Craig Reucassel could have been shot by security personnel last week when flying a five-metre-long motorised blimp carrying a written message over St Peter’s Square in Vatican City.

    Australia’s ambassador to The Holy See, Tim Fischer, yesterday confirmed that anyone breaching an airspace ban over the 44-hectare city-state could be fired upon.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/entertainment/tv–radio/the-chaser-take-their-pranks-on-world-tour/2009/05/01/1240982406927.html

  5. In fact if Rudd were to announce that we are going for 25% by 2020 and building a nuclear power plant at Jervis Bay, a move to the left and to the right simultaneously, he would snooker everyone nicely.

  6. Finns

    Gusface is probably better staying away with this new-founded PB enthusiasm for nuclear power. 😉

    Adam

    There is a great book just out “Prescription for the Planet: The Painless Remedy for Our Energy & Environmental Crises” by Tom Blees which has really provoked and popularised the idea of nuclear being part of the solution. It goes through all the nuclear options and is a big fan of IFRs.

    http://www.amazon.com/Prescription-Planet-Painless-Remedy-Environmental/dp/1419655825/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241321660&sr=1-2

  7. Jervis Bay is in my backyard but we have been thinking of mooving and it is a Lib electorate so build away I say 😉

  12. [I’ve now signed up to follow Rees, Brumby, Bligh and Rann on Twitter (Barnett and Bartlett don’t have it). ]

    Barnett is a luddite – he only bought a mobile phone in the last couple of years 🙂

  20. Insiders was very good this morning. Swan is the best treasurer since Keating. Unfortunately many Bludgers were fooled into believing that he’s nervous, and a weak link for Labor. I’m not saying that Tanner will not be as good, but at the moment Swan has an edge in experience.

    You can’t seriously criticise Gerrard Henderson. Sure he was a strong Howard supporter and is obviously sensitive to his wasted economic legacy but compared to Akerman, Milne and Bolt, he makes a fine analyst.

  21. Diog,

    I tend to see the WHO as a bunch of charlatans. They need to advocate extreme positions to justify their existence.

    I recall they were spouting that Avian Flu would “kill” 25% of the population at one stage.

  22. When are you Bludgers going to get with the times and stop buying newspapers? I buy it twice a year, for the Golden Slipper and the Melbourne Cup. I’m giving the Slipper edition the flick. I don’t need it, don’t want it, and won’t miss it, and it could only be a matter of time for the Cup as well. Newspapers are on death row!

  23. The amigos might be innocent afterall. It might be the great satan.

    [Flu outbreak could have started in US: health official

    5 hours ago

    WASHINGTON (AFP) — A US health official on Saturday did not rule out the possibility that the A(H1N1) influenza virus outbreak may have originated in California.

    “As we do our investigations here in the US, we may find that there were cases earlier,” US Centers for Disease Control and Protection (CDC) spokesman Scott Bryan told AFP.

    Several cases of infection were reported in California before the outbreak in Mexico, the epicenter of the swine flu outbreak, where the government has confirmed 427 cases of the disease as well as 16 deaths.]

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iIJELPg1J9wrXVWqPf126EfWrLxg

  24. And now the poor pigs are also getting it. The Egyptian has been killing the pigs. Maybe, it’s time to start killing the humans to save the pigs.

    [Canada: 1st pigs found with new swine flu virus

    By CHARMAINE NORONHA – 1 hour ago

    OTTAWA (AP) — Pigs on a Canadian farm have been infected with the new swine flu virus — apparently by a farm worker back from Mexico — and are under quarantine, officials said Saturday. It is the first known case of pigs having the virus.

    But officials quickly urged caution. Swine flu regularly causes outbreaks in pigs and the pigs do not pose a food safety risk, Dr. Brian Evans, executive vice president with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, told a news conference.

    The officials said the pigs in the province of Alberta were thought to be infected by a Canadian farm worker who recently visited Mexico and got sick after returning to Canada.]

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iMEVmxTOZhCOoN3yDxx0HjaZl0jgD97UGJB80

  25. [I tend to see the WHO as a bunch of charlatans. They need to advocate extreme positions to justify their existence.]
    I tend to see the Catholic Church as a bunch of charlatans. They need to advocate extreme positions to justify their existence.

  26. Shows On,

    I agree. Unfortunately, “Peace, Love and Goodwill” are extreme positions in this world we share.

  27. If anyone overcalled this one it was the Mexicans. There seems to be some friction between the WHO and the Mexican health authorities, the source of which will probably come out in a few weeks.

    I’m reading a book ATM on emerging diseases. It’s really hard for the health authorities to get it just right because the numbers can be exponential. It’s really easy for them them to overcall or undercall and outbreak.

    Don’t forget that a “pandemic” doesn’t mean anyone has to die. It just says the disease is being transmitted worldwide by person-to-person contact.

  28. This is getting effing ridiculous! From the Herald – front page banner – just now (3pm AEST):

    [“Toll from swine flu rises”]

    from 17…. to 19.

    Then, as a side bar:

    [“80 suspected swine flu cases”
    There are 80 people awaiting test results for swine flu in Australia, with no confirmed cases, the federal Health Department says.]

    If those 80 had swine flu then we’d have the second biggest outbreak in the world, compared only to Mexico. So clearly only a small proportion of them, if any, will actually have Swine Flu and are actually expetced to get it. Ergo, “80 sustected swine flu cases” do not really exist in anything but the fevered imagination of the Herald’s front page editor.

    Where do these moronic journalists get their cheek from, running nothing stories with headlines like that?

    Perhaps we are seeing the next, terminal stage of the dumbing–down of Fairfax, right before our eyes.

  30. GG, you seem to be a good catholic, unlike me who I consider myself as a naughty catholic. (Diogs how do you do the red devil looking face)?

    I happened to watch the DaVinci Code again last night. Surely you can’t deny JC and MM were an item. The true historical evidence appears to be quite strong lol.

  37. GG is a good Catholic

    Centre is a naughty Catholic

    I am into a catholic good and naughty of frolicking in the deep blue.

  41. [As the disease spreads around the world, the death toll in Mexico has been downgraded from over 100 to just 19.]

    Before being downgraded to 19 I believe it got as low as 11, then upped to 17. When it rose to 19 the Herald responded by screaming:

    Toll From Swine Flu rises

    They should have based their headline on the “11” number and told us:

    Killer Flu Toll Nearly Doubles In One Week”

  42. Finns
    [GG is a good Catholic
    I am into a catholic good and naughty of frolicking in the deep blue.
    GG
    I think my goodness has been greatly exaggerated.]

    So we can take it that you and GG are now an item Finns?

  44. Finns

    Heard anything from the third Amigo? I’m missing him. I swear my IQ has dropped 5 points since he stopped blogging here. 😥

  45. 222,

    [
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 3, 2009 at 2:47 pm | Permalink
    When are you Bludgers going to get with the times and stop buying newspapers?
    ]

    we get it delivered on Saturday only. I purchase it every Friday (footy pregame supplement) and Mondays if my team wins (footy postgame supplement).

    Good on you Vera (SYD getting up) – STK and WBD not withstanding, Fev’s poster in the dying seconds is all that is standing between me and a perfect tipping record this week >;-( …….. you changed your pic too I see 😉

  46. [Heard anything from the third Amigo? I’m missing him. I swear my IQ has dropped 5 points since he stopped blogging here.]

    Yes, where is he?

  48. Diog, the last email was 29/3/09 to which i replied. but no reply from amigo ronnie since. will try again.

  49. It looks like sexy Jacko has hit the jackpot. It’s good news for the Oz film industry and will ensure Jacko singin, tappin and jivin the Oscar for the next few years. Goodbye Max Mad.

    [‘Wolverine’ looking sharp as summer starts. ‘X-Men’ spinoff has earned $35 mil since midnight Thursday

    By Carl DiOrio, May 2, 2009, 12:20 PM ET

    Fox’s Hugh Jackman starrer “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” didn’t need to claw its way to No. 1 over the first day of the summer boxoffice season.

    A spinoff of Fox’s lucrative “X-Men” franchise, “Wolverine” easily topped the daily rankings Friday with an estimated $35 million in its first day of release. The tally included almost $5 million rung up from more than 1,500 performances at midnight Thursday.

    Still, with piracy problems imperiling its opening and the swine flu complicating projections for its first weekend, it comes as welcome relief to studio execs that “Wolverine” remains likely to register upward of $80 million through Sunday. That was the consensus forecast headed into the weekend, and its Friday boxoffice seems to bear out that projection.]

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i06056b3e43453484bef211017ad33d39

  50. Finns @ 243. That could mean two things. a) I know that the 4 Amigos are GG, Finns, Ron and Vera. b) I may be offered a membership to the Amigos.

    If b) that would make me no.5. Before Diogenes, what a hoot! 😛

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