Morgan: 59-41

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor’s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor’s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan’s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).

Elsewhere:

• Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania’s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in Bass at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson’s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the dedicated thread. Further reading from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics. Further coverage tomorrow from Antony Green.

• Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been found guilty for his role in the Lindsay pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of “distributing unauthorised electoral material”, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor “possé” who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.

Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals’ Kooyong preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).

• The Warrnambool Standard reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in Corangamite. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals’ Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Internet expert and former Howard government adviser” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, “Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services”.

• Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an excellent piece for Inside Story.

• After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett reportedly has his eyes on Bass, which Labor’s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.

• If you thought Possum’s booth maps was dope, wait till you see Nathan Lambert’s Google Earth files.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. Finns

    Is there anything you’d like to share with us ❓

    [Tree of Knowledge memorial opened

    IT’S an emblem of Australia’s labour movement and a holy grail to the Labor Party.

    It’s also been poisoned and died.

    A tree in outback Queensland, seen as the birthplace of workers’ solidarity since striking shearers were said to have gathered there in 1891, has been given a new lease on life after it was poisoned three years ago.

    The dead tree is part of a controversial $6 million memorial officially opened today in front of solemn dignitaries and hundreds of locals. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25419926-5005962,00.html

  2. [What about a statue in the shape of a WorkChoices Pen.]

    Put the pen and the white feather with a hammock in between, surround it with a white picket fence and you have the liberal memorial.

  3. If the Greens win seats in the Legislative Assembly then I think that will raise their vote.

    The victory of a Green in Rucker Ward will help with their vote in Northcote in 2010 (and hopefully in Batman in the future (has Martin Ferguson ever done anything not bad and rightist?)).

  4. [First genetic analysis of swine flu reveals potency

    The H1N1 fluMovie Camera continues to spread around the world, with cases now confirmed from more than a dozen countries, from Hong Kong to Canada.

    Yet the first genetic analysis of how well this virus transmits from person to person concludes that it spreads barely well enough to keep itself going.

    But it may be too early for celebrations.

    ]

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17072-first-genetic-analysis-of-swine-flu-reveals-potency.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

  5. Where did this guy come from? Michael Coulter, Production Editor of The Age, write so well:

    [“God delusion clouds a world of wonders.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/god-delusions-cloud-a-world-of-wonders-20090502-aqxa.html

    Lovely writing…. and from a “Production Editor” too!

    Meanwhile, elsewhere at Fairfax, if you don’t actually have a flu case in Australia, and you can only dig up Aussie passport holders in London who have the flu, and your readers are getting a bit pi$$ed off with these pretty transparent shenanigans, then try another misleading headline. Place,

    [“First Flu case ‘a certainty’“]

    in a banner on your front page – clearly hinting some poor sod has “certainly” got the flu – then, on the actual article inside, change your headline to:

    [“Aussies quarantined overseas as officials try to contain virus“]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/aussies-quarantined-overseas-as-officials-try-to-contain-virus-20090502-aqrp.html

    They’re hanging out so much for their first flu case on Australian soil. Then we’ll really be a grown up country. We’ll have the “flu pandemic” too, and they can really go to town on the scaremongering.

    Note of caution: if we go much longer without a genuine case, then the story may switch to:

    [“Lucky Country ‘immune’ from killer flu“]

    God help Rudd then if we actually do get a case at this stage of the story…

    [“Nation in lockdown as Rudd fails flu test“]

    This one’s got a long way to go.

  6. Watching Insiders. Is Hugh White the only Defence analyst in Australia??

    I’ve seen his head just about everywhere the last few days. He is to defence asVan Onselen is to the LIberal Party – the media’s go to person. (to the exclusion of other views)

  7. [This one’s got a long way to go.]

    Maybe not Bill

    [In an announcement expected to ease fears around the world, Mexican health officials are now saying the strain of swine flu may not be as deadly as first feared.

    According to the health ministry, information it is still gathering from hospitals across the country indicates that if sufferers are treated within three days of the onset of symptoms the prognosis is good.

    Mexico’s health minister said authorities might, on reflection, have overestimated the danger of the virus when it first appeared. …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/03/2559192.htm%5D

    I agree – the “God delusions cloud a world of wonders” piece is a good one. It’s a pity this wasn’t the page one story. After all it’s an opinion piece just like most of what’s served up as News these days.

  8. Dave, I too thought he mike be the governments weakest key minister but that hasn’t been the case after he got his first budget behind him. I still think Tanner is the better salesman but Swan is still a very strong performer in the toughest of all ministries at this time.

  9. GB these days Milne is nothing more than an irrevelant bitter man. I just how the media say “under pressure” or embattled to beat up their own story. He mus be pretty partisan though not to realise that he is batting for what will be the wrong team for a number of terms

  10. Amazing Scenes!

    Gerard Henderson beats up Turnbull for betraying Liberal Party Principles by not supporting extra Defence spending and then says “Reds Under The Beds” is a perfectly reasonable position for Turnbull to take in this modern world.

    You hadda be there (Insiders).

  11. [ I just how the media say “under pressure” or embattled to beat up their own story]

    Yyep.

    Other good self fulfilling lines:
    “This issue has the potential to cause embarrasment to …” (pretty much ever issue does)

    “Questions have been raised about… ” (usually the person raising the questions is the journalist)

    “The Minister/leader is struggling to get his message across in the media” (becasue we keep writing abvout how he’s struggling to get his message across).

    “A quick check of opinions at my local butcher’s shop…” (always good to make it sound like you listen to “real people” – forget about sample size though)

    “While the polls suggest…” (which means I am going to now spend the rest of the article arguing the polls are all wrong)

    “Some governent insiders are worried that…” (look I was having a beer with a lackey nobody and he agreed with me on what I was saying so now it’s an anonymous source).

    “Peter Costello…” (I’ve really got no story, so it’s break the glass time and I’ll write about Costello’s leadership challenge)

  12. [God delusion clouds a world of wonders.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/god-delusions-cloud-a-world-of-wonders-20090502-aqxa.html%5D

    What an insightful line in that article.

    [As someone wise once said, the garden is quite good enough without having to invent fairies at the bottom of it.]

    Dave
    [Another strong performance by swannie on insiders. The libs thought he was a weak link ?]

    In chess it is a classic trap to portray a part of your game as weak. Draws the opponent to that side where you leisurely wipe them out.

  13. Apologirs if others have already seen it but there is a very good article on Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) technology at Barry Brooke’s blog:
    http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/04/30/rethinking-nuclear-power/

    If Rudd wanted to do ANYTHING that might be credible in the long term in solving CC/energy problems, and wedge the Liberals to boot, he should position Australia to investigate/research into this technology, as part of a mix of renewables. Environmentally it seems to be the least harm option. Economically it faces an initial investment cost barrier, but then has low operating costs. If France, Germany, South Korea and Japan can maintain competitive manufacturing using nuclear energy (at least in part) then so can we. Rather than havign blanket ideological positions for or against nuclear energy, we need to set out under what circumstances it would or would not be acceptable. If we are honest, we will find that clean coal does not pass such criteria anyway.

    Assuming the real hurdle is political, someone needs to tell the mining companies that in the long term IFR is the best way for them to still make money selling all the other base metals industrial societies need without coal power, and also tell the CFMEU that lots of jobs will be created making the power plants and a new electricity grid.

    Next I will imagine how world peace might be created ….. 🙁

  14. How about:

    “Minister let me ask you this. Some people say…” without ever naming the people who say. Maggie Thatcher, famously asked a question in this form by our own George Negus (in his 60 Minutes days), replied, “Who are these people? What are their names?”

    “The [xyz] government was reeling today after allegations that…” The journalist writing the article made the allegations yesterday, or the writer’s mate (who works in the office next door) made the allegations in the morning edition.

    Anything to do with an “Affair”, as in “As the [xyz] Affair gathered momentum…”

    My personal favourite: bootstrapping.

    Day #1: original speculative story.
    Day #2: a colleague picks up story and discusses a new angle.
    Day #3: (if you’re lucky) your opposition picks up the story.
    Day #4: Articles starting with “Newspaper reports that..” in the same paper that broke the story.
    Day #5: Articles containing the words, “The Minister refused to deny…” (or confirm, as the case may be) appear.
    Day #6: “As the [xyz] affair drags on, causing grief for an embattled government…”
    Day #7: Allegations are now Established Fact, good enough for Pies Akerman to dredge them up as “facts” when he writes his bi-annual “fact file”: a list of egregious Rudd crimes from the past, usually with the words, “Where there’s smoke there’s fire…” to cover up the fact that none of the facts have ever been proven to be “facts”.
    Day #8: “An increasingly brittle government is over-reacting to what amounts to a political storm in a teacup…”. To be most effective this article must be written by the original journalist from Day #1.

    Love it, don’t ya?

  15. Ah yes, here we go:

    [Australian stockpiles of anti-viral drug Tamiflu are out of date
    THE Federal Government has admitted it is about to replace 1.9 million doses of anti-flu vaccines because the drugs will soon be out of date.

    With the world facing a possible swine flu pandemic, the Rudd Government has admitted the shelf-life of the Tamiflu drug is five years.

    The initial stockpile, set aside for use in a national emergency, was purchased by the Howard Government in 2004 – five years ago.

    Responding to questions from The Sunday Telegraph, a spokesman for Health Minister Nicola Roxon revealed 1.6 million packs were removed from the Commonwealth’s stockpile this month because they had passed their use-by date.

    They had already been replaced and another 1.9 million courses would have to be replaced progressively from June to August, the spokesman said.

    But the Government faces stiff market competition with a spike in world-wide demand for Tamiflu.]

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25419362-421,00.html

    So we know the drugs are approaching their use-by date. We’re replacing them at the required rate. But now that we’re facing “stiff market competition” we might not be able to get them in time.

    It appears that if you stock up early the use-by date will arrive to bugger up your efforts.

    If you wait until the flu appears (just a week ago, remember), then your back’s against the wall and you’re “admitting” you’re in a tight corner, especially against “stiff market competition”.

    If you ignore the use-by date and buy up big year before it expires then, presumably, you’re wasting money on panic purchases when there’s perfectly good and effective drugs already on the shelves.

    Sheesh!

  16. Senators up in 2010

    NSW

    Hon John Faulkner (ALP, age 56, elected 1989) Cabinet Minister
    Mike Forshaw (ALP, 58, 1994)
    Steve Hutchins (ALP, 54, 1998)
    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, (Lib, 46, 2004) Shadow Parliamentary Secretary
    Hon Bill Heffernan (Lib, 67, 1996)
    Fiona Nash (Nat, 45, 2004) Shadow Parliamentary Secretary

    Likely result in 2010: No change

    Vic

    Hon Kim Carr (ALP, 55, 1993) Cabinet Minister
    Hon Steven Conroy (ALP, 45, 1996) Cabinet Minister
    Hon Michael Ronaldson (Lib, 56, 2004) Shadow Minister
    Julian McGauran (Lib, 53, 1987)
    Hon Judith Troeth (Lib, 70, 1993) RETIRING
    Steve Fielding (FF, 50, 2004)

    Likely result in 2010: ALP gain from FF

    Qld

    Hon Joe Ludwig (ALP, 51, 1998) Minister
    Hon Jan McLucas (ALP, 52, 1998) Parliamentary Secretary
    Hon George Brandis (Lib, 53, 2002) Shadow Minister
    Hon Brett Mason (Lib, 48, 1998) Shadow Parliamentary Secretary
    Barnaby Joyce (Nat, 43, 2004) Nats Senate Leader
    Russell Trood (Lib, 62, 2004)

    Likely result in 2010: ALP gain from Lib

    WA

    Hon Chris Evans (ALP, 52, 1993) Cabinet Minister
    Glenn Sterle (ALP, 50, 2004)
    Judith Adams (Lib, 67, 2004)
    Mathias Cormann (Lib, 40, 2007) Shadow Parliamentary Secretary
    Chris Back (Lib, 60, 2009)
    Rachel Siewert (Green, 49, 2004)

    Likely result in 2010: No change

    SA

    Annette Hurley (ALP, 55, 2004)
    Anne McEwen (ALP, 56, 2004)
    Dana Wortley (ALP, 51, 2004)
    Hon Nick Minchin (Lib, 57, 1993) Shadow Minister
    Hon Alan Ferguson (Lib, 67, 1992)
    Mary-Jo Fisher (Lib, 48, 2007)

    Likely result in 2010: Either no change or Green gain from Lib

    Tas

    Kerry O’Brien (ALP, 59, 1996) Government Whip
    Helen Polley (ALP, 53, 2004)
    Hon Eric Abetz (Lib, 52, 1994) Shadow Minister
    Stephen Parry (Lib, 50, 2004)
    Guy Barnett (Lib, 48, 2002)
    Christine Milne (Green, 57, 2004)

    Likely result in 2010: ALP gain from Lib

    ACT

    Kate Lundy (ALP, 43, 1996)
    Gary Humphries (Lib, 52, 2003)

    Likely result in 2010: No change

    NT

    Trish Crossin (ALP, 54, 1998)
    Hon Nigel Scullion (CLP, 54, 2001) Shadow Minister

    Likely result in 2010: No change

  17. Socrates,

    This (Integral Fast Reactors) IFR seems to be a Magic Pudding solution:

    The key advantages of IFR are listed as follows:

    1. It can be fueled entirely with material recovered from today’s used nuclear fuel.

    2. It consumes virtually all the long-lived radioactive isotopes that worry people who are concerned about the “nuclear waste problem,” reducing the needed isolation time to less than 500 years.

    3. It could provide all the energy needed for centuries (perhaps as many as 50,000 years), feeding only on the uranium that has already been mined.

    4. It uses uranium resources with 100 to 300 times the efficiency of today’s reactors.

    5. It does not require enrichment of uranium.

    6. It has less proliferation potential than the reprocessing method now used in several countries.

    7. It’s 24×7 baseline power.

    8. It can be built anywhere there is water.

    9. The power is very inexpensive (some estimates are as low as 2 cents/kWh to produce).

    10. Safe from melt down because if something goes wrong, the reactor naturally shuts down rather than blows up.

    11. And, of course, it emits no greenhouse gases.

    Would be very interested in what others have to say.

  18. BB, if you don’t mind I will save your piece re the typical beatup scenario to give to my kids.

    Might help them understand these dills in the Oz media.

    Have noticed how different Obama’s Press conferences are to ours. Absolutely no respect in this country but even if they disagree with Obama (or even Bush at the time) they at least showed a little respect for the office.

    Oz journos are a hypocritical bunch.

    Bit surprised at Henderson this a.m. spouting against Turnbull on a couple of accounts. Turnbull must surely be in trouble.

    But how about Henderson’s defence of Howard and Costello’s big spendathons. That gave us a good laugh.

  19. [It seems to me that while an individual’s faith can be a profound personal journey that might even make them a better person, a society’s faith is akin to mass psychosis.]

    Opium of and for the masses.

  20. [Opium of and for the masses.]

    Yes, similar effects and opium is usually via a a prick in the arm whilst with the other can be a prick in the ***.

  21. [Maggie Thatcher, famously asked a question in this form by our own George Negus (in his 60 Minutes days), replied, “Who are these people? What are their names?”]
    You mean this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFh3pu0uGxQ

    The problem with Thatcher in this interview is that is sounds like if he named them she would hunt them down and have them “removed”.

  22. [good enough for Pies Akerman to dredge them up as “facts” when he writes his bi-annual “fact file”: ]

    Have to admit BB I’ve never seen this article. I count myself lucky.

  23. GG

    IFR’s have been around for a while in the development phase. When they showed promise in the US, Bush cut their funding and banned the scientists from speaking about how promising they were.

    We’ve still got the NIMBY problem here (and a PM who’s not big on “courageous/suicidal” decisions). One of the guys in the BraveNewClimate blog posted this though

    [For what it’s worth, local communities around the existing nuclear plants in the US favor building additional reactors at those plants by overwhelming margins (~80% in favor). In fact, such communities are actively competing for new reactors by offering incentives (i.e., they are engaging in bidding wars). Even some towns without existing plants are trying to attract new plants.

    These communities have lived around a nuclear plant for decades, have gotten used to it, and have come to view the plants as good, safe (and non-polluting) neighbors. Many of them know someone who works at the plant. All of this helps to de-mystify nuclear. They also know that a plant is an enormous local source of high paying jobs and tax revenues. And they know what would happen (economically) if the plant shut down.]

  24. Another nail in the newspaper coffin. The Oracle of Omaha says he wouldn’t buy them at any price. That should please Rupert.

    [But his view on the future of the newspaper industry is dismal. “For most newspapers in the United states, we would not buy them at any price,” he said in response to a question about whether he would consider investing in newspapers. “They have the possibility of going to just unending losses.”]

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/05/02/buffett-sees-unending-losses-for-many-newspapers/

  25. [and a PM who’s not big on “courageous/suicidal” decisions]

    Dio

    The apology to the aboriginals was one of the most courageous political ddecisions I have ever seen. You cannot say that about Rudd that he lacks courage.

  26. Diogenes,

    The reason we have the NIMBY problem is that the protagonists of Nuclear Power have never addressed (IMHO) the issues of concern.

    Blees in his advocacy seems to confront issues such as cost blow outs, regulatory failure, waste management, proliferation of weapons, possible accidents et al head on. He seems to be saying that the fourth generation nuclear power plants do. If so, I am prepared to listen and evaluate nuclear power with an open mind.

    Here’s a radio interview from that site. Forty minutes well spent.

    Peter%20B%20Collins%2011-25-08%20H1[1] 41:25

  27. [The apology to the aboriginals was one of the most courageous political ddecisions I have ever seen.]

    Oh, tosh. What political risks did it carry for him? None. A courageous decision is one that antagonises your own support base, antagonises powerful interest groups and/or may cost you votes. Howard’s gun laws in 1996 were courageous. The apology was the right thing to do, but took no particular courage.

  28. Some genuinely courageous things Rudd could do
    * Scrap the tax cuts in this budget
    * Scrap the private health rebate
    * Scrap the SES schools funding formula
    * Go for 20% by 2020
    * Sell uranium to India
    * Go nuclear

  29. [good enough for Pies Akerman to dredge them up as “facts” when he writes his bi-annual “fact file”:

    [Have to admit BB I’ve never seen this article. I count myself lucky.]]

    Pies has a habit of filing away every anti-Rudd accusation for a rainy day. Every now and again (at about 6 months intervals) he spews them all out onto the table. I think the idea is that there are so many accusations floating about that some of them must be true.

    The last occasion this happened was with The Affair Of The Slobbering Stewardess. Pies dredged out Therese Rein, Rudd’s Childhood, Scoresgate, Long Tan, the resignations from his office over the past few months, something to do with the Governor General’s batman and, I think, Heiner, to “prove” Rudd was a hypocrite and a phoney, just as making a 23 year-old cry would attest. Most of these “affairs” were either not proved at all, or partially proved, as when Milne tried to make out Rudd was drunk and disorderly and never retracted it, or indeed when the story went out that Rudd was upset at the hostie because he couldn’t get tofu with gold flakes and ground caterpillar’s testicles on the plane (or whatever the allegedly fancy meal was supposed to be), when in fact there were no meals at all on board that night, just snack food.

    As I wrote above, these kinds of stories seem to come out around every 6 months. All the alleged “Affairs” are stitched together to provide (Pies hopes) a litany of innuendo and scandal, some of the mud from which (again, he hopes) has stuck.

  30. I’ve now signed up to follow Rees, Brumby, Bligh and Rann on Twitter (Barnett and Bartlett don’t have it). Rann uses it very effectively – a steady stream of messages making short sharp points against the Libs and the media. His populist instincts are second to none.

    [PremierMikeRann Libs Tues media release grossly defamatory. You cant use forged documents, smear and accuse people of corruption and get away with it.
    about 2 hours ago from txt ]

    [PremierMikeRann Must be so hard for Mail to have a go at Marty. Like criticising your own child! While Libs play games we will keep winning contracts.
    about 3 hours ago from txt ]

    This is all about using new media to bypass and outwit the Tory press. Rann only has 3,800 followers atm but that number will grow exponentially. This is the politics of the future.

  31. [Some genuinely courageous things Rudd could do
    Scrap the tax cuts in this budget
    * Scrap the private health rebate
    * Scrap the SES schools funding formula
    * Go for 20% by 2020]

    William

    I think AIC account has been hacked, he is displaying, identified leftist tendencies

  32. Castle, you left off the last 2 on the list!

    Anyway, I didn’t say I was advocating those things, I said they would be courageous decisions.

    GG, in the sense that “courageous” = “politically suicidal”, no I don’t think so.

  33. [Howard’s gun laws in 1996 were courageous. The apology was the right thing to do, but took no particular courage.]

    Bull bl*du s***, Howard had a chance to stand up for gun laws when Unsworth proposed them 10 years earlier.

    Apology was the right thing, but given the inherent racism of white Aussies to the natives it took a lead it took a lead to force the acknowledgement that so many wrongs had been done.

  34. [Howard had a chance to stand up for gun laws when Unsworth proposed them 10 years earlier.]

    Howard’s lack of courage in 1986 does not alter the fact that the 1996 laws were courageous, because they angered a large sector of his own supporters.

    [the inherent racism of white Aussies ]

    I don’t accept that proposition.

  35. I think IFR is worth exploring for most of the reasons Greensborough Growler puts forward. However, I have no idea where he got #9 and I’d be astonished if its true.

    BTW, similar technology can be used to produce power from thorium. This removes the whole thing one step further from weapons proliferation, which would make me more comfortable, although there are benefits to using U238 as well.

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