The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor’s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor’s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan’s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).
Elsewhere:
• Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania’s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in Bass at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson’s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the dedicated thread. Further reading from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics. Further coverage tomorrow from Antony Green.
• Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been found guilty for his role in the Lindsay pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of “distributing unauthorised electoral material”, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor “possé” who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.
• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals’ Kooyong preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).
• The Warrnambool Standard reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in Corangamite. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals’ Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Internet expert and former Howard government adviser” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, “Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services”.
• Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an excellent piece for Inside Story.
• After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett reportedly has his eyes on Bass, which Labor’s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.
• If you thought Possum’s booth maps was dope, wait till you see Nathan Lambert’s Google Earth files.
I agree with Turnbull on defence spending cut backs. We are facing a large deficit and we are not going to go to war with anybody in the short term. Of course we all know that if Rudd was making cut backs, then Turnbull would be crying for more spending. It is good to see Turnbull so wedged and alienating his core support lol.
Rudd is the smartest politician we have ever seen. Better than Howard. I remember Ruddock asking in QT with tongue in cheek “what is this wedge politics”. By the time Rudd is finished, the liberals will wish that they had never heard of the Tampa or wedge politics 🙂
[Yes, i can really imagine now. The diggers, along side the Flag of the Rising Sun, standing on the beach of Fukuoka, Kyushu. ]
What on earth are you going on about? Japanese and Australian troops fought together in Iraq and Afghanistan.
That is the way of international relations – states that are enemies in one conflict, may be on the same side many years later.
Moreover, not all members of the RSL are as rabidly anti-Japanese as Bruce Ruxton. Some realise that the Japanese soldiers were just being manipulated by a corrupt and evil regime.
What effing game!!!!
[There are quite a few historians who refer to the Cold War as the Long Peace.]
What? The Cuban Missile crisis was good, and we should have more world events just like it?
Robert S. McNamara refers to The Cold War as The Hot War. He would be in a better position to know than miscellaneous historians who weren’t there making the day to day decisions.
[Japanese and Australian troops fought together in Iraq and Afghanistan. ]
Fought? Japanese “soldiers” are not allowed to fight.
[Fought? Japanese “soldiers” are not allowed to fight.]
Oh OK. Japanese and Australian soldiers SERVED together on the same side of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Is that any better? My point remains exactly the same.
I don’t think any member of the Japanese SDF has ever fired a shot in anger. Correct me if I’m wrong. When Japan was pushing for a permanent seat on the Security Council a few years ago, it was quite rightly pointed out that they would then be in the position of sending other countries’ troops into conflicts that their own constitution does not allow them to take part in. It’s long past time that Japan rewrote its pacifist constitution, but they are afraid of Chinese and Korean reaction.
[Robert S. McNamara refers to The Cold War as The Hot War. He would be in a better position to know than miscellaneous historians who weren’t there making the day to day decisions.]
He’s also as far away from being objective as you can be.
[It’s long past time that Japan rewrote its pacifist constitution, but they are afraid of Chinese and Korean reaction.]
You can add Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Burma, Vietnam, HK and Taiwan that were under the iron boot of Japan. They have forgotten.
They have forgotten. = They have NOT forgotten.
GP splutters:
Yep. And third rate.
[I don’t think any member of the Japanese SDF has ever fired a shot in anger. Correct me if I’m wrong. ]
I think you are right. In fact one of our roles in Iraq was specifically to provide protection to the Japanese force:
[The deployment follows an announcement by the Prime Minister in February to send the Task Group to support the Japanese Iraq Reconstruction and Support Group and provide vital training to the Iraqi security force.]
http://www.blackanthem.com/TheAllies/2005050101.html
Apparently the Japanese Navy you have when you aren’t allowed to have a Navy has helped the U.S. quite a lot:
[Japan’s role in the war on terror, especially Operation Enduring Freedom, was a major step in its taking on a greater security role. Since December 2002, Japan has maintained a flotilla of logistical support ships and Aegis-equipped destroyers of the Maritime Self Defense Forces (MSDF) to refuel and supply the U.S. and coalition ships operating in the Indian Ocean as a part of OEF.
The Japanese ships in the Indian Ocean are directly supporting a wartime coalition operation that has captured large quantities of weapons, smuggled drugs, and traffickers.[1] This logistical support has increased the opera-tional capabilities of coalition forces.]
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.23464/pub_detail.asp
However, this just supports my point that in WWII Australia was involved in extreme conflict as the Japanese tried to invade our country, flash forward 60 years, Australian forces were defending the Japanese. Bruce Ruxton times who think a country should always begrudge its historical adversaries are delusional, and are a threat to world peace.
[He’s also as far away from being objective as you can be.]
He was actually in the room with JFK deciding what the hell to do about the soviet union setting up nuclear weapons in Cuba. His opinion should be respected a great deal more, than people who pretend that the cold war was peaceful.
GP at 1, yes Turnbull is an idiot (althoug quite scary for him that tories are calling him that. He seems content to continue with his oppose at all costs strategy that has worked so well for him
And Centre at 101, Rudd is an adept politician. Defence one of the only things the tories have credibility on, then Turnbull tears it to shreds. Not only alienates his base but ignores that fact that Howie played on fear and the electorate have been conditioned to be fearful
[GP at 1, yes Turnbull is an idiot (althoug quite scary for him that tories are calling him that. He seems content to continue with his oppose at all costs strategy that has worked so well for him]
This week Turnbull did support the increased troop deployment to Afghanistan. But that is the first Government policy he has supported in a long time.
The point is, can you trust a fully re-armed Japan? They still pay regular visit to the Yasukuni shrine that still glorifies Japan’s past military aggression. Their history books still tell their children that Japan was a victim not the aggressor. If that is what you want? be my guest.
[His opinion should be respected a great deal more, than people who pretend that the cold war was peaceful.]
I’m not saying we shouldn’t listen to him, but objectivity is one of the most important tenets of history. It’s almost impossible to suggest McNamara’s writings and commentary on the Cold War are objective.
I remember my slide rule at school fondly, as I do my logarithm tables. These new fangled calculators will never catch on 🙂
Tom
[However, this just supports my point that in WWII Australia was involved in extreme conflict as the Japanese tried to invade our country, flash forward 60 years, Australian forces were defending the Japanese.]
Doesn’t this also support the argument that it’s completely plausible to not have a large standing defence force, even when surrounded by past and current enemies (China and North Korea) and be fine?
Tom,we dont need batteries on the slide rule ]
😀
I don’t think there’s the slightest chance of militarism regaining a place in mainstream Japanese politics. At whom would it now be directed? East Asia is no longer full of European colonies ripe for the picking, but rather of well-armed independent states. I agree that Japan should grow up and stop denying its past, and Japanese PMs should stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine. But at the same time, China and Korea should get over their preoccupation with Japan’s crimes of the past. I don’t think all the other states Finns listed are nearly as concerned about Japanese power as they are about the rise of China as regional hegemon. Japan, in alliance with the US, Austraklia and India, is the obvious counter-weight.
Guy Barnett of the hardline religious right considering running for a Lower House seat? Funniest thing I’ve heard all week. Any chance of Erica doing the same? Bring it on!
[I agree that Japan should grow up and stop denying its past, and Japanese PMs should stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine. But at the same time, China and Korea should get over their preoccupation with Japan’s crimes of the past.]
Herr Doktor, which one is the chicken and which one is the egg?
Japan was on our side in WW1.
[The immediate object of Japan in joining hands with England was to destroy the German menace in the Pacific. Before she delivered her ultimatum the Germans had been active; ignoring the rights of Japan while she was still neutral they had captured a Russian steamer within Japanese jurisdiction, as well as a number of British merchant vessels, and even a few Japanese ships had been intercepted by German cruisers. This was the disturb-once to general peace in the Far East, which had prompted England to request Japan’s assistance. ]
http://www.oldandsold.com/articles26/world-war-one-8.shtml
So it the great Austrlian Internet filter ever got up ( note how quite it has all gone), it would be the US funding the average user software to bypass the dam thing.
http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/05/01/1436237
It’s a good sign that Barnett thinks he has less chance of holding his Senate seat at No 3 on the ticket than he has of winning Bass from Labor. In fact he has almost no chance of doing either.
If the Senate was enlarged then he would have a chance.
If there was a DD he would have a chance (at No 3).
(at No 3)=(at No 5)
[what about a “white feather’ made from pig iron, captures Menzies in one]
What about a statue in the shape of a WorkChoices Pen. (There are tens of thousands of these pens lying around, apparently.) Captures the Liberals in one!
If there was a DD, then Tassie would be interesting – the Greens are pretty much guaranteed 2 seats and could get 3, if they get well over a (normal) quota like they did last time and Labor don’t try any funny business with Family First again. That’d possibly throw a hammer in the works for the two majors… if the Libs only ended up with 4 seats (and ALP 5), then a sitting senator would get pushed out.
Well the Senate isn’t going to be enlarged. I agree if there was a DD he would probably be 4 or 5 on the Lib ticket and would get back. But he has to decide soon whether to stay on the Senate ticket or run for Bass.
Three quotas is 23.1%. I doubt the Greens could get that in Tas. They already get most of the middle-class left vote, there’s not much more to take from Labor. Tas is a fairly blue-collar state and Labor’s blue-collar base won’t vote Green in a fit.
It’s also unclear if Brown will run again which will dent the Green vote due to his charisma vote. That’d leave Milne to lead the ticket. Someone with the political maturity of a screaming banshee.
Diogenes
[The calculations for the first nuclear bomb were all done with a slide rule. Nothing wrong with a slide rule.]
Actually, I think I remember from “Surely you’re joking, Mr Feynman!” that one of the earliest mainframe computers was installed at the Los Alamos site of the Manhattan Project specifically to crunch the numbers for the first atomic bomb. Someone who has read it more recently might confirm.
Adam would you say that states like Victoria have a larger middle class left vote and therefore a higher potential left vote?
Greensborough Growler:
You have Milne pegged – i believe Adam called her “bossy” – and that was being polite
I don’t think mainframe computers existed in 1945.
Tom, yes I would. The Greens have done well in Tas for several reasons: hot-button issues like Lake Pedder, the Franklin dam, old growth forests and the pulp mill; a traditionally very un-green state Labor party closely linked to the Hydro and timber firms; and a charismatic leader in Bob Brown. But I think they have maximised their vote in Tas. In Vic there is still a big “potential green” vote. But so far they haven’t found the key to winning it over. They had a potential breakthrough opportunity in the Albert Park by-election, but blew it badly with a bad candidate and a weak campaign.
I’ve been watching Milne in the Senate hearings. She’s very smart and determined, and she knows what she’s talking about. But she has an unfortunately self-righteous manner. So does Brown, of course, but I’m afraid in media and public image terms this is less forgivable in a woman leader.
The other main reason the Greens have done well in Tasmania is Hare-Clark.
I think the existence of the Green MLCs will help the Green vote in 2010.
Tom, (a) yes of course, I should’ve added that, (b) I doubt it, but then I don’t live in Vic anymore so maybe I’m wrong.
polyquats
They had a prototype of ENIAC, short for Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer, at Los Alamos but they mainly used slide-rules. von Neumann was at Los Alamos but not in a computing role. ENIAC was used to develop the H-bomb though.
They had a bunch of Jewish scientists and that’s really all you need.
This could get interesting. I doubt that Nitschke can expect a lot of sympathy or help from the Ruddster.
[AUSTRALIAN euthanasia advocate Philip Nitschke has been detained by British authorities at Heathrow airport, his lawyer says.
Dr Nitschke flew into London on Saturday for a series of public meetings and workshops on voluntary euthanasia to be held across the UK next week.
The founder of the Exit International organisation said he and his wife Fiona were waiting for legal advice before being interviewed by customs officials. ]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25418852-5005962,00.html
[I don’t think mainframe computers existed in 1945.]
You’re right, according to Gribbin they used a ‘new kind of calculating machine’, supplied by IBM and assembled by Feynman and friend because they couldn’t be bothered waiting for the IBM engineer.
Polyquats,
And so began the history of shocking support by computer manufacturers.
If Hitler hadn’t lost all his Jewish nuclear physicists by expelling them or having them flee from Eastern Europe, he would have had enough expertise to have built an atomic bomb. They lost Szilard (who had the first idea for the chain reaction), Teller, Wigner, Franck and many others. There was some serious karma.
I recently read a biography of Frederick Lindemann, Churchill’s scientific adviser, who was born in Germany. In 1933 he began offering jobs at Oxford to German Jewish scientists who were being kicked out of German universities. These men became the core of the Tube Alloys group which laid the scientific foundations of the A-bomb project.
And of course it was Albert Einstein whose letter to FDR got the Manhattan Project up and running.
The Jewish scientists obviously didn’t know what was happening to the Jews who never got out of Nazi Germany. I wonder if it would have been counter-productive if they had’ve known the truth.
They had a pretty good idea. That was why they were so determined that Hitler would not get the bomb first.
The dangerous moment came in December 1944, when the Americans captured von Weizacker’s papers at the University of Strasbourg. These proved that Germany was nowhere near getting the bomb. There was then a moral crisis for some of the Manhattan scientists. If there was no danger of a Nazi bomb, what was the justification for building a US bomb? One or two of them resigned at that point.
A few days ago there was talk here about nuclear reactors that can turn high level nuclear waste into fuel. I linked to Fast Breeder Reactors, but these generally produce plutonium, that could be used for weapons. There is a better experimental alternative called Integral Fast Reactors, with lots of information on this blog:
http://bravenewclimate.com/integral-fast-reactor-ifr-nuclear-power/
There is a wikipedia page here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_Fast_Reactor