The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor’s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor’s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan’s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).
Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania’s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in Bass at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson’s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the dedicated thread. Further reading from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics. Further coverage tomorrow from Antony Green.
Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been found guilty for his role in the Lindsay pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of distributing unauthorised electoral material, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor possé who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.
Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals’ Kooyong preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).
The Warrnambool Standard reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in Corangamite. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals’ Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; Internet expert and former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services.
Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an excellent piece for Inside Story.
After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett reportedly has his eyes on Bass, which Labor’s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.
If you thought Possum’s booth maps was dope, wait till you see Nathan Lambert’s Google Earth files.
567 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”
What a crying shame. Our last bastion of credibility: national security. What does Turnbull do? Say there are no credible threats. The guy is an idiot.
If Turnbull continues along this path then it is just a huge political free kick to Rudd and the rusted on Liberals will be scratching their heads.
However I do commend Turnbull on the anti-dog whistling anti-fear approach as something less low than we have seen from the coalition.
I tend to be with the Govt on this that on the face of it there are many unique uncertainties in the future and that we will need to be prepared to present a credible deterrence.
This will surely create problems within the ranks of the coalition. I expect Turnbull to quickly change his position once more.
Will whoever the shadow defence minister please stand up!
Turnbull is a liberal. I cannot understand why Liberals do not like him.
So was Menzies. But even he didn’t advocate gutting our defence budget, or not increasing spending to meet credible threats.
The more liberal the leader, the less the Liberals like him.
A credible small-l liberal still believes in the defence of our nation. Are you saying that you’re a Greens voter now?
Turnball’s comparitively moderate. A moderate is in the best interests of the Liberals right now. He may say some things that put off his core constituency, and thats never a good thing if you want to prevent a coup, but who else is there? Costello or Hockey?
Actually i’ve got to say i’m surprised Turnball isn’t doing a better job, i’ve always prefered him to most of the competition and probably so too have many in the community. Could it be that the Coalitions poor performance in the polls has little to do with the ‘leadership’ and much to do with the Liberal Parties policies on GW, industrial relations and disregarding Keynes when it comes to the GFC?
And conversely, someone who’s not at all liberal – Howard – Liberals think the sun shines out of him.
THM we dont have any policies on these issues so your point is spurious.
The Heysen Molotov, I agree with your suggestion in number 9. The problem is not the leader (though the last three or so haven’t helped); the problem is the Liberal brand. They’ve been behind in every poll for more than two years. This goes way deeper than the faults of whoever happens to be their latest or current front man. It goes to the party itself, its record of malfeasance in government, its ideologies and values.
[THM we dont have any policies on these issues so your point is spurious.]
Fine. Then its coz of the ‘vibe’ and the statements that the spokespeople have made in rescent years when it comes to GW, industrial reltions and the handling of the GFC.
I never take into account who the leader of a party is when I vote or whether or not on a personal level they come across as a jerk. I only care about policy and ideology.
The continual bad polling since election day is thanks to zero policies, no principles, no values.
The party itself can recover if it actually becomes serious about the above three things. And it would also help if Turnbull tried not to alienate voters by saying we don’t need to spend money on defence.
[Could it be that the Coalitions poor performance in the polls has little to do with the ‘leadership’..]
It probably has a lot to do with the leadership in a way. For a decade the Liberal Party was John Howard. Now no John Howard. The Liberal assume that their long time in power was more than just being JH and thus that they should now be almost as popular as before.
But it is worse than that. The games, wedges and positions JH could use are no longer available, the world has moved on and to the left, leaving parts of the Liberal Party stranded at low tide. They have lost the major thing that made them electable JH and their position out on the right no longer in fashion.
They need to reinvent themselves if they want to get in anytime soon.
Turnbull in trying to keep the dinosaurs happy is appearing irrelevant to everyone else.
And his position on Defence seems to have had no thought at all, he has just gone the negative of the Govt’s position. In other words Turnbull is at his wits end, he is out of ideas.
Speaking of “out of ideas”, the Herald and The Age this morning report that the “first Australian” Swine Flu victim has arrived.
He’s lived in London for years, but his nationality is Australian. Never mind that in Australia there are no victims of Swine Flu. Someone, somewhere with an Aussie passport has the lurgy and that’s good enough for the front page of the two major Fairfax broadsheets.
Makes ya wanna up and cry, it does.
[Speaking of “out of ideas”, the Herald and The Age this morning report that the “first Australian” Swine Flu victim has arrived.]
And also on “Pur ABC” online as well.
And just so we don’t overdo the panic bit, and obsess about Swine Flu and stuff like that, the ABC has this link at the end of their article:
[Do you know someone who has been affected by the outbreak? Are you in Mexico or another country which has confirmed the virus? Send us an email or send us your photos, videos and audio clips.]
It can’t be long before they start blaming Rudd for it. Someone will make a mistake, or be accused of not reacting fast enough, or they’ll miss a “flu suspect” at the airport and then it’ll be on for young and old. Imagine the “photos, video and audio clips” pouring in then.
At the other end of the scale, an anecdote. At work today I contacted our OH&S rep, asking him whether we had a “Flu Plan” or suchlike. I received a lecture about how the company can’t be “blamed” for people getting the flu. No court in the world would allow an employee to sue their employer because they contracted an illness maybe at work and so on. When I said my question was simpler than that – I just wanted to know whether we had compulsory handwashing, disposable cutlery and things like that as an option, I was told I was a Nervous Nellie.
I showed him the Government pandemic booklet (Google “”Australian Health Dept pandemic response”) which recommended thee types of things in the home and workplace and he just said that was “Government bull$shit” and not to worry about it.
Currently three of my colleagues have colds which (I am embarrassed to say) they likely caught from me. The first cold I had, four months ago, I went through all the washing and other anti-infection precautions and got laughed out of the place. But no-one caught it. This time I didn’t bother; I didn’t want to go through the wringer again, being mocked.
God help us if something really serious – and infectious – ever crops up.
[It can’t be long before they start blaming Rudd for it. Someone will make a mistake, or be accused of not reacting fast enough, or they’ll miss a “flu suspect” at the airport and then it’ll be on for young and old. Imagine the “photos, video and audio clips” pouring in then.]
Is the ABC becoming as bad as Today Tonight in covering this – The ABC are wishing for a death so it can blame Rudd etc. Tonight’s news had a report from Mexico City and the reporter had a face mask on FFS.
Poor Turnbull, takes the no position and upsets the serious right wing of his party. Poor guy can’t win, and he has worked so hard to keep those living in the past happy.
I would suggest our increased spending on defense has little to do with a creditable threats and a lot to do with having to look after our own position if china and the usa decide to have a dust up. Life is going to get more complicated for Australia. Perhaps it’s an admissions that our diplomacy isn’t up to it.
I wonder what it is like to have gone to school with a polly?
Posted Saturday, May 2, 2009 at 12:56 am | Permalink
The more liberal the leader, the less the Liberals like him.
Case in point with Malcolm Fraser – I’m on the left Labor fringe and I love the man, Glen has previously said I can have him 😀
Bushfire Bill @ 19,
[At work today I contacted our OH&S rep, asking him whether we had a “Flu Plan” or suchlike. I received a lecture about how the company can’t be “blamed” for people getting the flu.]
During 1998, business in my city took full advantage of Howard’s new Workplace Act and took a hard line on absenteeism which resulted in people turning up for work when they really7 should have been home in bed.
Of course during that winter there was a really bad flu epidemic resulting in at one stage, over 40% of the workforce coming down with a severe dose of it and either being hospitalised or laid up in bed at home because they were seriously effected.
Business virtually shut down and many were so affected by absenteeism that they shut or suspended operations for more than four weeks. Strangely enough, about a month after things started to return to normal, many of those people went down with another version of the virus which also affected many who had missed out on the first one.
They didn’t make the same mistake this time and instructed anyone with symptoms not to attend work so as not to infect the others. A place I worked at during the 80’s almost ceased operations because of a flu epidemic.
It just demonstrates why employers should have a OH&S plan in place to deal with issues such as this but as you show, most are too stupid to do so.
Turnbull should have a quiet talk with this gentleman and pick up a few pointers. This fellow knows how to make his personal wealth work for him in furthering his popularity!
[NAPLES (Reuters) – Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has compared himself to Jesus Christ and Napoleon, boasted on Friday that he was the world’s most popular leader.
The conservative premier, in his third term in office, said opinion poll findings in his possession showed his popularity at just over 75 percent, making him far more popular than U.S. President Barack Obama — or any other head of government.
“The opinion polls I know say that he (Obama) is at 59 percent. Only (Brazilian President Luiz Inacio) Lula tops 60 percent — he is at 64 percent. So mine is a record high,” he told reporters in Naples where he attended a May Day concert.
On his way out of the concert hall, the 72-year-old Berlusconi — who has proclaimed himself the Jesus Christ of Italian politics and once said he was second only to Napoleon, except taller — was heckled by protesters who shouted “Go Away!.”]
[A poll published last month by left-leaning La Repubblica daily said support for Berlusconi stood at 56 percent and had risen in April for the first time since October thanks to his hands-on response to a deadly earthquake.
Berlusconi, who regularly complains of unfair treatment by the media despite directly or indirectly controlling 90 percent of Italy’s television, put his own popularity at 75.1 percent.
“These are independent surveys, but they are not promptly published,” he said.]
Italian PM has an overinflated view of himself 😉
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has compared himself to Jesus Christ and Napoleon, boasted on Friday that he was the world’s most popular leader.
[The continual bad polling since election day is thanks to zero policies, no principles, no values.]
And as for the bad polling since December 2006?
Oh what short memories you lot have GP. I love it most when Liberals say that anybody who gives out cash like a drunken sailor would get the polling Rudd is getting – NEWSFLASH! It’s been like that since December 2006!
Talk about revisionism.
What pleases me the most though? The fact that Rudd Labor reached a record 63/37 on 2pp terms… now what happened during this time of astronomical polling? Cash handouts? No. Infrastructure spending? No.
The apology to the stolen generations.
Whoa. We do have some integrity.
Re inheritance tax from previous thread. Maybe there can be a GST applied to the inheritance, as it is a change over of cash and assets, from one party to the other.
The Liberals are really wrist-slashing now. Funnily enough, this is first time I’ve agreed with Turnbull. The Defence budget is hugely overblown. The last thing we need is more unused toys for them to play with. We’ve got to make some cuts somewhere and Defence looks like a great place to start. What the hell do they actually do? 😉
If on death all capital gains are realized. There is no longer any need for death duty. The problem is the structures used to hide the wealth.
Proof that global warming is a hoax. This is the earliest start to the Victorian ski season for 45 years.
They defend us.
I ask myself the same questions about medical spending.
The more doctors the more illness, expensive but terribly bland white coats are a fashion disaster and these overpaid and oversexed medicos seem to have all day to post their meaningless chatter on political blogs.
Tough love is required. Tell the malingering public that it is their duty to die. That’ll sort out if their sick or not.
[I showed him the Government pandemic booklet (Google “”Australian Health Dept pandemic response”) which recommended thee types of things in the home and workplace and he just said that was “Government bull$shit” and not to worry about it.]
It seems that what OH&S reps lake in knowledge they make up with self-importance and bombast.
You only need to be defended if you are attacked. When did that last happen?
More accurately, they are prepared to defend us in the unlikely eventuality that we are attacked. And they are a deterrent.
On the flu the only criticism I’ve seen of the Ruddster has been from Bolt who has accused him of fear-mongering. A reminder of 40M dead from the Spanish flu and pointing out that we have followed WHO procedures completely negates that argument.
One thing you have to credit Bolt for is that he really works hard, a bit like Andrew Sullivan in the US. They both manage about 10 posts a day, Sullivan’s all being excellent and Bolt all being crap.
You obviously haven’t been sick recently. I can’t remember the last time I saw a doctor wearing a white coat. And I did put a 😉 after my comment.
[They defend us.]
Arrrr, damn those Asian hordes!
The impetus for boosting the military at this time is the imminent rise of Asian powers like China. Does anyone seriously believe that if China were to engage with us militarily on some level (very, very unlikely) a few extra submarines and planes would have any effect?
A guaranteed 3% increase in spending over 20 years shows some inconsistency about the government’s rhetoric on the economic crisis which they’ve use to not only cut spending in other sectors (including firing workers) but also to argue that we don’t have money to spend in other, arguably more important, areas.
Of course I expect a whole of lot of posts saying “What’s more important than defence?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?”. Well I don’t think we should dissolve the defence force (both my father and grandfather were in the army) but I don’t think spending a $100 billion on battleships and trucks should be a priority at the moment.
Those emoticon thingos are a scourge. They are so much like canned laughter. They should be cut out of the Budget too!
I was waiting to be accused of abandoning Australia and handing it on a platter to China or any other country who wants to stroll along the red carpet I’d laid out by suggesting we cut the Defence budget.
I just thought you were being creative in promoting Australia as a tourist destination for our Asian neighbours.
Given that conversations on blogs are just that, it’s really hard to convey things like irony and sarcasm to people who can’t actually hear you speak without them. I’m glad that Rudd and Conroy will be allocating a balanced amount of the budget to setting up a taskforce for the implementation of a better Emoticon strategy.
[You only need to be defended if you are attacked. When did that last happen?]
In 1941, when we found that we didn’t have an air force or a much of a navy because of 20 years of thinking like that. And military hardware has much longer lead-times now than it did then. We live in an increasingly dangerous region and the time to prepare for future contingencies is now.
[the government’s rhetoric on the economic crisis which they’ve use to not only cut spending in other sectors (including firing workers) but also to argue that we don’t have money to spend in other, arguably more important, areas.]
Which workers has the government fired?
Which other areas has the government argued we don’t have money for?
[Which workers has the government fired?]
In the ABS.
And the Department of Immigration.
[Which other areas has the government argued we don’t have money for?]
Well they applied a 3% efficiency dividend on every department, so pretty much every area.
More specifically, revenue shortfalls mean that infrastructure fund is about a third of what was suggested and as a result there will be less spending. Other than that, there’s speculation about the pension increase being lower than expected but I’d rather wait for the budget to make more specific comments. But it’s a certainty there will be cuts in areas, or less spending than earlier suggested, but defence still gets their guarantee.
If we’re going to spend money on Defence – which of course we should – investment in the Navy is the way to go.
Meeting threats before they get here is much cheaper than waiting til they’ve landed.
I’m sure that in the 1930s Australia didn’t think there were any credible threats out there, either.
On the flu discussion: the Victorian Education Dept has for many years now provided free flu shots for teachers as a matter of course, so I suggested the same to our CEO. He couldn’t see the sense in it (I argued that the Ed Dept must have done some cost analysis).
That winter, the majority of the staff, including the CEO, came down with the flu.
Free flu shots are now standard.
Also job cuts at Geoscience Australia.
Which, ironically, is the organisation researching CCS.
Ok I see. Reductio ad Hitlerum only applies when it refutes Adam’s position as opposed to supporting it. 😉
It’s an absolute pleasure to see the Government handle a potentially important and controversial issue like the H1N1 flu without politicising it. They have been honest and professional and just got about doing their jobs without point-scoring or grand-standing. If it was Howard, there would be tub-thumping, xenophobic whistle-blowing and public servants being bashed up and forced to spout ideologically driven propaganda to the public. I don’t often praise Rudd but this reminds us that we’ve got an excellent PM, even if he is wimpy on CC. 😀
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