Newspoll: 58-42

The Australian reports Labor’s lead in the latest fortnightly Newspoll is up from 56-44 to 58-42. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up two points to 67 per cent, and Malcolm Turnbull’s is down two to 18 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has exchanged five points of disapproval (down to 21 per cent) for five of approval (up to 68 per cent), while Turnbull’s disapproval exceeds his approval for the first time (42 per cent to 39 per cent). Also featured are questions on foreign ownership of Australian mineral companies (it’s bad).

Elsewhere:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 63-37. The other questions relate to Australia’s international relations, in particular Kevin Rudd’s handling thereof (67 per cent approve), the state of our relations with China and the United States, and the countries respondents feel “are most like Australians in their attitudes and the way they see the world”.

• Perth’s ABC TV news yesterday reported that litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer plans to bankroll a campaign by the WA Nationals to win a Senate seat at the next federal election – something they haven’t succeeded in doing since 1975. No word on who the candidate might be. Former Deputy Premier Hendy Cowan didn’t have any luck in 2001, but he did have Graeme Campbell/One Nation to contend with on that occasion. Their subsequent efforts have been half-hearted.

• The ABC reports the WA Nationals are insisting on a precisely fixed date for the state’s elections, contrary to Premier Colin Barnett’s policy of allowing flexibility in the timing of elections in February or March “in case of natural disasters”.

• In yet more Western Australian news, Antony Green has a page up on the state’s May 16 daylight savings referendum. The Poll Bludger’s page on the concurrent Fremantle by-election is in business here.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee will conduct an inquiry into whether the Electoral Act should be amended to expand the scope of the provision prohibiting misleading electoral material. At present this refers expressly to material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote”, and is thus narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong party. The Victorian Electoral Commission rejected a complaint from independent Kororoit by-election candidate Les Twentyman about a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals”, but its report on the by-election suggested parliament consider addressing “an undesirable trend for candidates to take advantage or build on community misunderstandings of preferential voting with confusing statements”.

• Ben Raue at the Tally Room has started an election wiki.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,460 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. GP: don’t be disingenuous. All Leonhardt said was that Germany emerged from the Great Depression relatively quickly. Nowhere did he say Hitler was unqualifiedly “great” for Germany.

  2. no, the far right wingnuts redstate stated that Leonhardt stated that Hitler was unqualifiedly “great” for Germany. They have read between the lines and uncovered the controversy.

    It’s not what he wrote, It is what he didn’t write.

    Did you know Rudd once didn’t say or write about that my alter ego was a swell guy when he was alive and leader of China.

  3. Not picked up by the MSM so far, I believe, but any bludgers thinking of taking the kids for a swim in the Murray Darling system for the school hols may wish to check:

    http://riverinfo.mdba.gov.au/weekly-report/current_wr.pdf

    They have issued a red alert for blue-green algae over hundreds of kilometres of river. The MSM may have failed to take it up because the Report was dated 1 April – but it looks genuine to me.

  4. Here’s a quizz question:

    Dimitri Mascarenhas may be in line to captain the national team of which nation in which sport?

  6. vera @ 89

    The thing that irritates me about such articles is that they don’t include who wrote it. One would suspect Mr Akerman or Mr Shanahan, but still…

  8. [widening witch-hunt into the Joel Fitzgibbon affair.]

    Dario, some other funny bits in that story.

    [“It is basically coercion to support his position. The stat decs seem like a Belinda Neal-style requirement,” a Defence official said]

    [the official said. “No one’s looking at the issue that triggered it all, the minister’s relationship with Ms Liu.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/anger-grows-at-farcical-fitzgibbon-inquiry-20090406-9uw6.html

    Reads like said “official” believes “covert probe” was justified, love the reference to Neal. Maybe said “official” getting worried and starting to poop self.

  9. [China dog-whistling backfired on Turnbull and the Libs. Either Howie was better at appealing to racism or Australia has matured]

    No-one could dog whistle like Howard, he was the grand master.

    Howie would have kept it very low key, a light barely audible whistle, “I’m not comfortable with some of Mr Rudd’s friendships,and I believe Australians share that discomfort”. And left it at that.

    The coalition post Howie uses a megaphone to yell their phobias.

  10. The best thing for the Libs to do to get rid of the hopeless Turnbull, and install Joe “Cossie” Hockey as their leader. At least Joe will have some entertainment value as the real life Shrek on Sunrise.

    Yes:

    [Sunrise, sunset
    Sunrise, sunset
    Swiftly fly the years
    One leader following another
    Laden with hopelessness and fears]

  14. Glen @ 5
    There’s always some reason why Rudd’s support is so high isn’t it…. He’s giving away money, he’s doing this, he’s doing that.
    Ever occurred to you that the support is still super high because he’s actually doing a fabulous job?
    Just a thought.

  15. [Still it is hard to compete with a Government who is paying the people a gift of 900 dollars. You’d be surprised if they didnt get such support in the polls.]

    That might be plausible if one ignored the fact Labor’s polling has been around this mark since Rudd became Labor leader all those years ago in December 2006.

    Liberal fantasies. Still can’t come to terms with Howard severely trumped. Losing the Preferred PM rating WHILE in government. What a joke.

  16. [In a article written for the International Journal of Applied Psychoanalytic Studies, Mike Richards – who lost his job during the 2004 federal election loss – analysed Mr Latham’s behaviour during his turbulent year as Labor leader, The Age newspaper reports.

    Dr Richards, who wrote his doctorate on a narcissistic personality, says Mr Latham’s promising political career was spoiled by “tragic personality flaws”.

    “Latham’s narcissistic and paranoid personality shaped a consistent pattern of political behaviour,” he wrote.

    “The core features of that style are a distinctive political brilliance and drive that is accompanied by paranoia and destructive tendencies – anger, rage, envy and resentment – which suggest an inner dynamic involving overweening ambition defending against (that is, compensating for) low self-esteem.”]

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/1028

    Makes sense.

  19. zombie mao

    Mr X will almost certainly have an endorsed candidate for the next Senate in SA. If he got someone with a bit of a profile, he/she would get in easily.

    bob

    The MHS counter-proposal to the New RAH seems to have gone down well and they might make a contest of the next election after all.

  20. [THE Federal Government has announced the “largest infrastructure decision in Australia’s history” after deciding not to award the National Broadband Network contract to a company.

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the Government would go ahead with plans to build a nation-wide fibre-to-the-home broadband network that was up to “100 times faster than what many people use now”.

    “Years of failed policy have left Australia as a broadband backwater,” he said.

    “This new super fast national broadband network is the single largest national building project in Australia’s history.”

    Mr Rudd said the Government would provide the majority of funds for the project. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25301681-12377,00.html

  21. [The MHS counter-proposal to the New RAH seems to have gone down well and they might make a contest of the next election after all.]

    Thank the Liberaltiser.

    I still don’t think the hospital will matter as an election issue to those who Labor need to win them the election – people in seats won by Labor in 2006 which have closer hospitals than the RAH. And you’re going to get a hospital either way no matter which party you vote for.

  22. I don’t understand this decision, after all this time, the expense of the tender process etc. they just decide to build it themselves?

  23. [I don’t understand this decision, after all this time, the expense of the tender process etc. they just decide to build it themselves?]

    Have you not been following how the tender process panned out?

  24. Nobody has mentioned the possibility that the National Party inspired High Court chalenge against the stimulus package caused resentment. I think its likely that it did. The legislation had already been passed in parliament, despite a coalition senate backflip, and then a former NP official challenges it in court. Despite the court still being stacked with Howard conservatives, the challenge fails. That can’t have helped.

    Second, DT82 – thanks for that link; the sale is a great vote of confidence in Labor policy. Several countries have had trouble selling bonds in recent months.

    Finally what is the MOE on this pole? So what is the best/worst outcome possible. I don’t think the government should provoke a DD; that looks opportunistic. But they needn’t be scared of one either. There wil be another G20 in six months and, provided the budget is positive, we will still be in better shape than most of our trading partners, so Rudd will have a good platform for that too.

  26. bob

    I think the stadium and the idea of a Fed Square are appealing. I hate Footy Park. It takes a whole day to get there and back. A multi-purpose city stadium would be great for Adelaide.

  27. [Despite the court still being stacked with Howard conservatives, the challenge fails.]

    Imagine the back-bending they would have had to have done in their full explanation of their decision of backing the states over federal, after having allowed WorkChoices to proceed.

  29. #123
    I’ve been following it, e.g., Telstra’s exclusion and the emergence of minnow Acacia, but I heard no suggestion that this was a possible outcome.

  32. 108 Castle,

    This line from that story

    [
    The requirement to sign declarations saying they were not involved in the investigation into the minister has angered Defence staff, with some describing it as a witch-hunt.
    ]

    They haven’t got a leg to stand on. Doesn’t matter who they are and if they are the same agency or not

    [
    Among those being pressed to sign declarations are staff of the Defence Security Authority — the same body that is conducting the investigation. This means the authority is in effect investigating itself.
    ]

    If you didn’t do anything you have nothing to hide. It is only those with something to hide that have anything to be worried about. If this flushes out the culprit(s), good on Warner ……..

  34. Looks like the bids were too high.

    [He said the Government would hold a majority share in the company, which would also be part-owned by the private sector.

    The network will connect 90 per cent of homes to a network with speeds of up to 100 megabits per second, Mr Rudd said.

    Mr Rudd said the initiative would create 37,000 jobs.

    He said the broadband tender process was being scrapped because none of the submitted bids offered value for money to the taxpayer.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/07/2536726.htm

  35. [How much would the construction of the network cost? 20-30 billion?]

    [THE Federal Government has rejected all tenders for a national broadband network and will build the $43 billion system itself.

    The Government will establish its own company to build the national broadband network.

    The network, described as the single biggest infrastructure project in Australian history, will be built in partnership with the private sector.

    Private sector investment in the new network will be capped at 49 per cent. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25301687-5006301,00.html

  36. and…

    [The government will make an initial investment of $4.7 billion in the company but intends to sell its interest within five years after the network is fully operational. ]

  37. [How much would the construction of the network cost? 20-30 billion?]

    I vageuly remember Telstra suggesting that it would cost close to $30 billion. Taken with a grain of salt of course, it makes clear that the 4.7 offered is (or was) never going to cut it.

    Frankly, I think it’s a better idea to build it ourselves. It’s the only way to ensure that we have a comprehensive network. Broadband is the railroads of this generation. We need to build it comprehensively and quick.

  38. Dio, MHS refuses to give costings for his plans for the new stadium/entertainment centre and refuses to say which of the three rebuilding schemes he has come up with for the RAH he’ll use until after the election, that puts both policies in the pie in the sky catagory, voters would be voting blindly for an uncosted stadium that the SAFL have already said they WILL NOT use and a pickabox selection for the RAH, can you honestly see them coming at it? especially with MHS’s costing mess ups in the past.

  39. It’s certainly an interesting decision. Off-hand there are positives, but it will be interesting to see the details emerge.

  40. [Off-hand there are positives, but it will be interesting to see the details emerge.]

    What won’t be interesting is how the debate works in the public sphere….I can already here Turnbull warming up his ‘generations of debt’ chords right now…

  41. The proposal for fibre optic to the home is now the snowy scheme played over. Watch the Liberals ignore history and oppose it every step of the way.

  42. [Watch the Liberals ignore history and oppose it every step of the way.]

    Ideologically, state built and owned infrastructure isn’t really in their wheelhouse. It’s to be expected.

  43. Massive Senate delays and rejections of the legislation are just the sort of thing that will hold up internet infrastructure in this country for years.

  44. [I can already here Turnbull warming up his ‘generations of debt’ chords right now…]

    Same. He’s certainly in with a chance to draw with Nelson as 7% Preferred PM.

  45. Personally I am delighted the government is proceeding with the broadband network. The myth of saving money with PPPs has finally come unstuck. They only happened in the past because rating agencies overrated private consortia and some governments wanted to hide debt off their books. But even then, they never saved money; the gain was pocketed by investors and taxpayers were worse off. This will be a valuable assett that should easily be sold for a profit later. This is exactly where the governmetn should invest funds to pay future PS retirement payouts. It also allows the government to ensure genuine competition in the sector by putting realistic access conditions on it.

    In the past I have been on review teams for five different PPP projects. NONE saved the taxpayer money, but two proceeded.

  46. JB

    The SANFL really need to get with the times. They’re still back in the olden days of fighting with SACA. It’s time they got some new blood in there. Footy Park is obselete but they are obsessed with it. The fans have repeatedly said they’d prefer a city stadium. The AFL, SANFL and Soccer Australia should put up some of the money.

  47. Ya. Would the snowy been built without government support, will there be fibre to the home without government support. If the government pays the bill it should have an asset to sell when capitalism gets over itself. Bloody good move in my view.

  49. [Personally I am delighted the government is proceeding with the broadband network. The myth of saving money with PPPs has finally come unstuck. They only happened in the past because rating agencies overrated private consortia and some governments wanted to hide debt off their books]

    I have to agree Socrates.

    A project like this requires massive amounts of ‘start-up’ cash. This takes away the ability for a short term profit. This means that if a private enterprise is to complete it, it needs to be able to sustain losses early. Few private enterprises can do that. Government is able to take a much longer view.

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