Newspoll: 58-42

The Australian reports Labor’s lead in the latest fortnightly Newspoll is up from 56-44 to 58-42. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up two points to 67 per cent, and Malcolm Turnbull’s is down two to 18 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has exchanged five points of disapproval (down to 21 per cent) for five of approval (up to 68 per cent), while Turnbull’s disapproval exceeds his approval for the first time (42 per cent to 39 per cent). Also featured are questions on foreign ownership of Australian mineral companies (it’s bad).

Elsewhere:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 63-37. The other questions relate to Australia’s international relations, in particular Kevin Rudd’s handling thereof (67 per cent approve), the state of our relations with China and the United States, and the countries respondents feel “are most like Australians in their attitudes and the way they see the world”.

• Perth’s ABC TV news yesterday reported that litigious Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer plans to bankroll a campaign by the WA Nationals to win a Senate seat at the next federal election – something they haven’t succeeded in doing since 1975. No word on who the candidate might be. Former Deputy Premier Hendy Cowan didn’t have any luck in 2001, but he did have Graeme Campbell/One Nation to contend with on that occasion. Their subsequent efforts have been half-hearted.

• The ABC reports the WA Nationals are insisting on a precisely fixed date for the state’s elections, contrary to Premier Colin Barnett’s policy of allowing flexibility in the timing of elections in February or March “in case of natural disasters”.

• In yet more Western Australian news, Antony Green has a page up on the state’s May 16 daylight savings referendum. The Poll Bludger’s page on the concurrent Fremantle by-election is in business here.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee will conduct an inquiry into whether the Electoral Act should be amended to expand the scope of the provision prohibiting misleading electoral material. At present this refers expressly to material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote”, and is thus narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong party. The Victorian Electoral Commission rejected a complaint from independent Kororoit by-election candidate Les Twentyman about a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals”, but its report on the by-election suggested parliament consider addressing “an undesirable trend for candidates to take advantage or build on community misunderstandings of preferential voting with confusing statements”.

• Ben Raue at the Tally Room has started an election wiki.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,460 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  4. [“I think Kevin Rudd is going to come back crashing to earth very quickly.”]

    Grog, very “quickly” reminds me of Herr Doktor Professor Einstein who was asked once to explain his Theory of Relativity.

    He said: “It’s like this, when i speak to a pretty girl, 5 mins feel like 5 secs. When i speak to a “not so pretty girl” it feels like 5 years”. The problem is, People Skills Abbott is not very pretty.

  5. Well maybe in the next newspoll Turnbull will be at 16 percent.

    Still it is hard to compete with a Government who is paying the people a gift of 900 dollars. You’d be surprised if they didnt get such support in the polls.

  7. It’s very pleasing to see that the China dog-whistling backfired on Turnbull and the Libs. Either Howie was better at appealing to racism or Australia has matured in it’s view of China.

    A big win for Finns and his comrades. 😀

  13. Havent we gone past the point where a DD election can take place without putting the system out of kilter what with the redistrubutions and all…

  14. This will be a bit of a tricky one for the Ruddster. Public opinion is definitely against further troops going to Afghanistan but Hillary would only ask the question if she knows she will get a “Yes” answer. I’m guessing we will say “yes”, but in a support role.

    [He says Australia will inevitably be asked to bolster its contribution in Afghanistan but he doesn’t necessarily expect a request this week.

    “I don’t know that (Defence Minister) Joel Fitzgibbon and I will receive it formally from Secretary of State (Hillary) Clinton or Secretary of Defence (Robert) Gates,” Mr Smith told ABC Television today.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25300761-12377,00.html

  15. The support for Labor is due to the cashsplash. They bought their popularity and honeymoon with taxpayers money. MalcoPops vote also helped Labor as booze is much cheaper now.

    Liberals might not be popular but they are standing up for the national interest, sacrificing themselves for the good of the country. They are the real heroes of the Rudd Recession moving their poll numbers in synch with the GDP.

  16. Can someone please go around to Cossie’s house and untangle him from the hammock……he must be in fits of laughter

  17. [Liberals might not be popular but they are standing up for the national interest, sacrificing themselves for the good of the country. They are the real heroes of the Rudd Recession moving their poll numbers in synch with the GDP.]

    Hahahahhahahahhaha

    ?

  18. I think people were marking Rudd up on his international efforts and failed to be sufficiently distracted by the domestic noise.

    Being a Newspoll weekend was the domestic diversionary noise deliberate to stop Turnbull’s figures falling even further?

    From December 2006 the media and Liberals have not changed their tactics. They refuse to believe that Rudd and Labor are competent and acceptable to the public and are waiting for them to just fade away.

    They can either continue on like this and get humiliated at the next election or start to see the world seriously now. After all we need a competent and reasonable opposition. It may not be possible until they get beat again.

  19. Glen:
    The ALP would love your side if you did block the budget. As AIC said before this Newspoll: “Bring It On!” The resulting campaign and election would be stealing-candy-from-kids stuff. You’d lose the Senate, and be lucky to have 20 seats in the house . . .
    So, forgetting the White Russian Roulette of Nelson/Turnbull/Costello/Hockey, what might you learn here?
    – all the China-bashing (or more accurately, all the bashing of an Australian citizen of a certain ethnic origin) doesn’t work. That particularly-mangy dog won’t hunt. It’s not 1987 anymore.
    – the constant attacks on Rudd as a person (cf Tom Pain in the previous thread) don’t work either. If nothing else, it’s way too soon for buyer’s remorse on the federal ALP, and besides Kevin and the comrades are actually doing stuff. It’s not the $900 bribe, it’s the visible action, the forward momentum, the activity. That’s what pollies are for after all: do stuff, fix problems, be proactive and all that.
    Still: 18%. Another fascinating set of numbers to come . . .

  20. [MalcoPops vote also helped Labor as booze is much cheaper now.]

    Yeah, definitely a correlation between alcohol prices and support for Labor.

  23. Garrett just got snapped by Tony Jones on his emissions targets.

    Garrett: “We need to keep CO2 levels at 450ppm”

    Tony: “But your targets, if adopted globally, would not go anywhere near that”

    Garrett: “…”

  25. [Garrett just got snapped by Tony Jones on his emissions targets.

    Garrett: “We need to keep CO2 levels at 450ppm”

    Tony: “But your targets, if adopted globally, would not go anywhere near that”

    Garrett: “…”]

    You left out the part where Garrett quite rightly pointed out that we don’t expect the world to adopt our exact targets, and it would be naive to think they would use us as an exact template

  27. [I bet the paperboy who delivers The Australian to Mal’s house tomorrow cops a mouthful (but he doesn’t cry)]

    Mal or the paperboy?
    😉

  29. [As sure as there’ll always be an England, I predict that the 3rd stimulus package has already failed.]

    Bree, when did you have a sex change?

  30. Every time News Ltd and the ABC mount an attack on Rudd’s character, his approval ratings go up in the subsequent poll: when will the media hacks ever learn that Aussies don’t like the politics of personal denigration and smear?

  31. [You left out the part where Garrett quite rightly pointed out that we don’t expect the world to adopt our exact targets,]

    I left it out to save Garrett embarrassment given it’s a stupid point.

    “Well we’ll have our targets, which we accept won’t do anything, but it’s fine for the world to go out and have their own!”.

  33. Glen and Malcopops: When your lot stop being obstructionist, negative bastards and actually offer some constructive solutions for the economic malaise we find ourselves in, then your ratings might improve. Does Turnball actually have any policies, other than blocking the government’s bills in the Senate?

  34. Oz,

    Misquoting, misrepresenting or being economical with the truth is piss poor.

    Now, no one will take any notice of what you say.

  35. [I left it out to save Garrett embarrassment given it’s a stupid point]

    It’s not stupid at all, and yours is rather asinine. There is no debate that Australia cannot solve the problem on our own.

  36. Glen I see you are parroting the lib talking point of “its because of the bonuses”. This argument may have a shred of credibility if Rudd was not getting these numbers when he was opposition leader. You need a new excuse

  37. Malco,

    You are using quality bait.

    A third stimulus is likely to turn the Libs into a quivering mass of jelly.

  39. Btw have there ever been any equivalent support figures for a Govt in this part of the economic cycle? This is really the big story to come out of all the polls.

    Regardless of St Kevin halo, why aren’t the media attacks and the looming or actual recession hurting Labor more?? Will it come when economy goes really bad?

    MalcoPops was the Liberal Messiah, the times should suit him but he turned out to be just a run of the mill right wing hack.

  41. Malco: If the Libs go ahead and block supply bills in the Senate, their ratings will sink into the 30s, but knowing the stupidity of Turnball/Big Mouth Hockey, that’s what they’re likely to do.

  44. GG,Oz,Dario

    you are both right

    TJ is the master of the gotcha, whereas PG still is comparatively a novice.

    At least we are doing something to address CC/GW

  45. I think you’ll find Macopops is having us all on and showing up the arguments used by some conservatives for what they are, BS. The sad fact is that some out there in voterland actually believe this line of argument.

  46. Glen I was hoping from the discussion the other night that you realised that your side needs to do the hard policy work. Now your back in the denial phase…

  47. [MalcoPops was the Liberal Messiah, the times should suit him but he turned out to be just a run of the mill right wing hack]

    Ummmm
    didnt one John Winston Howard get written off a few times.

    mal will happily handle a bypass methinks

  48. well so much for spygate, the yellow peril and RAAFgate, at this rate they can keep bringing it on, Turnbull needs to be careful, stories of his temper tantrums are doing the rounds, he doesnt even bother to apologise, he’s above all of that, Chris Kenny, Downers ex chief gofer left ACA to take up with Turnbull and didnt last a month.

  49. From earlier today we were discussing what results might we see if the next Federal Election gives us an increased Labor margin. I’ve done a cut and paste from the pendulum (just food for thought) of all Coaltion seats that are held with margins of 5% or less. I know swings aren’t uniform but this might give us a listing now of the vulnerable seats as you wouldn’t expect anything held with more than a 5% margin to fall I wouldn’t think.

    Coalition (Lib 74 / Nat 13/ CLP 1)
    Return to Top
    Kingston (SA) LIB 0.1%
    Bonner (QLD) LIB 0.5%
    Wakefield (SA) LIB 0.7%
    Parramatta (*) (NSW) LIB 0.8%
    Makin (SA) LIB 0.9%
    Braddon (TAS) LIB 1.1%
    Hasluck (WA) LIB 1.8%
    Stirling (WA) LIB 2.0%
    Wentworth (NSW) LIB 2.5%
    Bass (TAS) LIB 2.6%
    Moreton (QLD) LIB 2.8%
    Solomon (NT) CLP 2.8%
    Lindsay (NSW) LIB 2.9%
    Eden-Monaro (NSW) LIB 3.3%
    Bennelong (NSW) LIB 4.1%
    Dobell (NSW) LIB 4.8%
    Deakin (VIC) LIB 5.0%
    McMillan (VIC) LIB 5.0%

  50. Good points Malcopops. It the midst of a massive slowdown, we have Labor riding high. The reason is that Rudd and the government have managed the economic issues wel- decisive, coherent policies, clear strategy and explanation. The opposition? mixed messages, changing positions. They have well and truly botched the opportunity

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