Morgan: 61-39

Labor has enjoyed an unlikely sounding spike in the latest Morgan poll, to 61-39 from 57-43 a fortnight ago, for which the most likely explanation is that the previous one was a rogue. Its primary vote is up 4.5 per cent to 53 per cent while the Coalition is down 5.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent. The Greens are up two points to 8 per cent. Furthermore:

• The Victorian Nationals have endorsed Bridget McKenzie, a university lecturer and former school teacher from Leongatha, for the safe number two position on the Coalition Senate ticket at the next election. McKenzie fills the position held at the 2004 election by Julian McGauran, who subsequently defected to the Liberals and will now be the number three candidate on the Coalition ticket, with Michael Ronaldson at number one.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto has emerged as another challenger to Josh Frydenberg’s bid to succeed Petro Georgiou as Liberal member for Kooyong.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian notes that beef stroganoff enthusiast John Murphy would almost certainly lose his seat of Lowe in the event that an early election required a “mini-redistribution” to reduce New South Wales to its required number of seats.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper mapping poverty rates by federal electorate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

930 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Boerwar

    I had a look at the G20 communique annexe on remuneration. It looked pretty fluffy.

    [compensation arrangements, including bonuses, to properly reflect risk and the
    timing and composition of payments to be sensitive to the time horizon of risks.
    Payments should not be finalised over short periods where risks are realised over
    long periods]

    Basically, they seem to be saying that you shouldn’t be rewarded for taking a big risk until the final effect of the risk has been determined. It seems fair enough but there is no strategy to implement it.

  3. That Oakes article is a joke. If the accounts of the stuff ups by the RAAF crew are correct then they all should be replaced. They sound throughly incompetent.

  4. I have thought that one of Rudd’s problems was a vanilla personality, there being not so much people can hook onto on the personal level. At the moment he gets respect and support as a person who cares and is working his guts out in the face of ‘unreasonable’ opposition and seems to be making mostly right decisions, so far.

    But that has to become familiar and wear a little thin eventually.

    When it comes to politicians people seem to expect or tolerate some pretty bad behavior.

    People suspected that Howard lied over Tampa, was playing on xenophobia, was being unfair with regard to refugees, knew what was going on with AWB and sundry other things along the way. And I reckon his trust level wasn’t the highest among voters either. But it never seem to affect his approval rating. The implication being that people don’t mind a bit of a rough nut with some unsavory bits and pieces in the background.

    So the media trying to rough up Rudd’s vanilla character may actually serve him well later on when people get a bit bored and need something else to hook onto, that the PM has a personality they can relate to in some way.

  6. LOL Glen. 😀

    Perhaps he’ll change to QANTAS.

    Reading this in that article, I’ll make the prediction that Rudd will be referred to as Dr Jeckyll and Mr Hyde before the weekend is out.

    [But the PM will not remain popular if the punters decide that what they see is not the real Rudd.

    That is why the story is dangerous. It is the first real public confirmation of claims that there are two Rudds – the bright, cheerful Kevin that viewers of Seven Network’s Sunrise program came to know, and a darker, more aggressive, less likeable figure the public does not get to see. ]

  9. [Important defense news… no tofu 3 months ago?]

    No wonder Rudd is a Commie – he’s a bloody VEGETARIAN !!!! That’ll piss off the Cattle farmers 🙂

  10. Diogenese

    Usually you can’t expect too much from a G20 – too many disparate national interests at work, and in this case, probably a bit too complicated to work out quickly as well. As well, in this case, the big stimulus package was not going to happen because France and Germany said nyet.

  12. It is a universal problem for Left governments. In the UK, USA and Australia they are fairly rabid and dishonest. Trying their hardest to undermine the government. And of course it might have a little to do with the majority of this media being in the hands of right wingers.

    Obama referred to this activity of the media earlier when someone asked him to give advice to Gordon Brown on how to be reelected. Obama implied that there was nothing you could do about the media no matter what you did so just forget them and concentrate on putting out good policy.

    Hopefully one day the internet will in time be their demise.

  13. And I think we know which news outlets have been the most rabid and dishonest in the UK, USA and Australia and their political persuasion. 😉

  14. Frank

    The Opposition Agriculture Minister said that’s it’s no wonder Rudd’s a bit cranky, all he needs is some red meat.

  15. It is I think an admission of failure on the part of the media and an indication of the success on the part of Rudd that the only way the media think they can reduce his poll numbers is go on a personal denigration campaign, instead of Government performance and policy.

  16. TP

    I don’t think it will hurt Rudd. I’m probably like lots of people and would prefer it if Rudd was charming, polite and witty all the time but it’s not very important.

    We all know lots of people who are difficult and act like prima donnas but are great at their job. There are quite a few doctors like that. They are great with their patients and do a fantastic job of fixing them up, but are basically ar$eholes to work with. I think less of them as people but I’ll still send patients to them because they do their job very well.

  17. Well one can only hope the young Murdoch do to News Ltd what the younger Packer did to their media interests. Break it up, sell it off. Wonder how soon that will be?

    The Murdoch empire has lost huge amounts of money and set lose more with of course advertising revenues shrinking rapidly and no doubt the demise of some papers.

    One can surmise that one objective of the Murdoch media here in trying denigrate Rudd is to change the government so as to win more advertising dollars from a Liberal Party government.

    In respect of media I don’t know why the government doesn’t create an on-line newspaper, separate from the ABC, that reports news and events exactly as they are. And that can have interviews with all the political players so they can put their points of view.

  19. DOD SITREP 1120

    RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT

    RED TEAM LEADER NOW RETURNING TO HOME BASE EMBEDDED IN BLUE TEAM AVIATION TRANSPORT. BLUE TEAM CARE FLIGHT CREW TO TAKE ALL POSSIBLE STEPS TO GATHER GEN ON RED TEAM LEADER. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN NOT TO PROVOKE EARLY HOSTILITIES. RED TEAM LEADER IS DANGEROUS WHEN PROVOKED. DO NOT FEED THE MAN MEAT. GENERAL SITUATION UNSTABLE. HEAVY INCOMING FLAK EXPECTED. BUNKERS SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO FULL READINESS STATUS. WHERE POSSIBLE JUNIOR RANKS OF THE WRONG GENDER SHOULD BE USED AS CANNON FODDER AND AS HUMAN SHIELDS IN ORDER TO RAISE SYMPATHY AMONG CIVILIAN POPULATION. PSYWAR TEAM TO FEED FURTHER DISINFORMATION TO SELECTED MSM TARGETS.

    STOCKPILING OF LONG SERVICE LEAVE CREDITS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED. THIS SHOULD BE COUPLED WITH VISITS TO FRIENDLY MEDICOS TO ESTABLISH BASE CASE FOR STRESS LEAVE. SUITABLE SYMPTOMS WIDELY AVAILABLE ON WEB.

  20. I had that discussion with my wife some time ago when she was saying one surgeon wasn’t very nice and some other one was. The ‘nice’ one however seem to be a bit slack or seemed to willing to say what you wanted to hear. My advice to her sister in-law was I would rather have the surgeon with the good reputation regardless of personality.

  21. This temper thing is nothing. The media might think it is but it is likely to just add some edges to a fairly plain personality.

    The media has being going hell for leather on Rudd from the beginning. I can remember the absolute glee of ‘The Australian’ journalists when they proclaimed day after day the demise of Rudd because of Brian Burke meetings. And of course they there after proclaimed the end of his honeymoon often.

    There is one glaring omission in all their focus on Rudd attacks and that is putting pressure on the Opposition to shape up, which is what we need for a good democracy.

  22. Steve K,
    Another leak by the DoD that is going to backfire on them, I think. The job of these guys is to fly the PM around. They get plenty of notice of the schedule, they should be able to get the catering right. (Not to excuse the PM losing his temper with a steward – but he apologised, they leaked).

  28. Good evening pollbludgers.

    I used to post here in my former alias of “John Hunt Is A Coward”
    As we all know John Hunt was forced into retirement by those ungrateful voters who never really appreciated the greatness of the man of steel and never deserved him anyway.

    The greatest PM ever alongside the greatest treasurer still today represent the golden era of politics. An era where Liberals were masters of the universe and nervous citizens and scared non citizens were well protected by fridge magnets.

    So here we are again with the biggest story in town: Vegie-Gate!
    So after StripGate, BurkeGate, and so many other gates, will Vegie-Gate finally bring the End of the Rudd Juggernaut. The media certainly seem to think so.
    This might be the end the honeymoon and the beginning of the narrowing for Mr 74%.

    I prefer quality journalism over tabloid fare. That is why I rely on the MSM to tell me what is important in my world. If it wasn’t for the media I would worry about recession, climate change etc etc but thanks to the quality media in this country, things are always put in proper perspective for me.

    Vegie-Gate tells us more about contemporary political issues than we could imagine.
    This episode is the equivalent of the Michael Douglas character in that movie “Falling Down” where he goes on a rampage after failing to get served because he just missed out on the breakfast menu deadline by a few minutes.

    This is RuddRage with a capital R.
    Rudd: “So I am the bad guy now? How did this happen? All I asked for was a tofu burger!”

  30. Gary Bruce
    Posted Saturday, April 4, 2009 at 12:26 am | Permalink
    These people are not going to let up on this. There is absolutely nothing wrong yet they continure the dog whistle.

    I disagree.

    It’s finished*- Glass houses and all that

    *anybody that matters (gulp) 😉

  31. It is curious but what they say of the Chinese is equally true of any country. So if it was a USA businessman with connections to USA military or government (a fairly common animal) you could make the exact same statements. Maybe they are a spy, you know USA has them, and it can be just about anybody.

    But The Age has been running this story fairly consistently. It has a dog whistle undertone to its persistence and lack of any data out of the ordinary among politicians. Unusual to see The Age engage in such journalism but times are tough and maybe they want to appeal to more right wing types.

  32. When my comment at 226 gets out of moderation I need to clarify something GB. When I say “anybody that matters (gulp)”

    I wasn’t talking about you GB.

    I was referring to certain reporters

  33. One of the authors of The Age piece (David Lague ) gets himself quoted on the Australian League of Rights site 1994.

    [Reporting from Hong Kong, for The Australian, David Lague writes, “The euphoria over China’s surge towards becoming an economic superpower is evaporating as signals emerge that Beijing cannot bring its overheated economy under control.” Inflation is running at over 20 percent in the bigger Chinese cities. There is growing regional resistance to the Central Government. Eventually a type of civil war appears inevitable.

    The attempt to impose in Asia and the former Soviet Empire the type of finance economic policies that have so badly damaged the Western nations can only intensify growing international instability. The advice by Prince Charles was never more important: that a nation, which wishes to survive into the future, must go back to its roots. Australia must concentrate upon regaining its sovereignty, political, economic and financial, in order to survive in a world which is becoming increasingly destabilised. ]

    http://www.alor.org/Volume30/Vol30No6.htm

    [Australia must concentrate upon regaining its sovereignty, political, economic and financial, in order to survive in a world which is becoming increasingly destabilised. ]

    I wonder what he means by that back in 1994?

  35. Interesting the other author suffered a raid in September 2008

    [The owners of The Canberra Times say they are “gravely concerned” over an “unacceptable” police raid on the Canberra home of one of its journalists this morning.

    Australian Federal Police arrived without warning at the inner-north home of the paper’s National Affairs Correspondent Philip Dorling at 8.30, investigating allegations of the leaking of official secrets.

    The seven federal agents backed by two computer experts and armed with a search warrant, arrived at Dorling’s Braddon doorstep demanding access to documents relating to a story published in the newspaper on June 14 this year.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/raid-on-journos-home-unacceptable/1280197.aspx

  36. Well its 10 03 I,m watching St George play the Broncos on Pay it starts at 9pm in Perth,hope the Souths beat the Warriors.
    I feel for GP and Glen,just think another 8 yrs 4 under Kevin and 4 under Julia though maybe 8 under Julia,will they survive,Christ I love watching the Libs suffer.
    Hey Frank I see TWOP got a run on Liberal Radio 6pr this arvo not complementary either,Beamont was having a hissy fit over it

  37. This is not a good sign. Defence has been leaking a lot it seems.

    [Dorling’s story quoted material from classified briefing papers prepared for Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon shortly after last year’s election and gave a rare insight into the activities of Australia’s secretive Defence Intelligence Organisation.]

  38. My old buddy Apostrophe Smythe reckons “If the bloody RAAF can’t get meals right and are going to cry when they stuff it up, perhaps we need to outsource catering to a third world country that can get it’s leaders meal orders right.”

  39. Speaking of Turnbull and China …

    [Gaffe makes Turnbull a risk, says Rudd

    Kevin Rudd is portraying Malcolm Turnbull as a liability to Australia’s national security, claiming he doesn’t know that Australia’s alliance with the US is different to its friendship with China.

    In Federal Parliament on Thursday, the Opposition Leader spoke of “our major allies” and listed eight nations including the US and China. Mr Rudd said yesterday that China was a friend but not an ally, a term with specific treaty implications.]

    Sydney Morning Herald, 6 December 2008

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/gaffe-makes-turnbull-a-risk-says-rudd/2008/12/05/1228257317713.html

  42. John Garnaut, China correspondent for The Age has a lengthy piece on the Rudd/China issue. GHe covers all bases bringing Howard, Costello, the Triads, a Rand Corporation political analyst, an economics professor at Australian National University and Peking University, Professor Michael Wesley, a former analyst at the Office of National Assessments and a swag of other characters into a wide ranging piece that has a number of familiar quotes.

    [Rudd has been portrayed as holding “secret meetings” in Canberra with China’s security chief and then its propaganda chief because their talks were widely publicised in China while Australia remained in the dark. His Defence Minister, Joel Fitzgibbon, was revealed by The Age to be renting a Canberra apartment from Chinese businesswoman Helen Liu, who had promoted herself in China for cultivating ties with Australian leaders and “accurately transferring” information about their policy moves to Beijing.

    Fitzgibbon also took three trips to China at Liu’s expense.

    All three were undeclared until after journalists’ inquiries; two took place while he was a shadow cabinet member and one included attending a People’s Liberation Army art exhibition called “The One Hundred Generals”.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/a-fraught-friendship-20090403-9qja.html?page=-1

    I am more and more starting to believe that Rudd has been the target of Turnbull and the Libs MSM Division with the added bonus of Fitzgibbon’s scalp if they can get him at the same time. I think people are now immune to this sort of dog whistle, smear tactics and it has the potential, if handled well by Labor, to backfire badly on the lynch mob.

  43. This John Garnaut seems to be leading the charge on this issue. This is from the 30th March with much of the same retoric as that in my post @ 237.

    [But the China debate has gone off the planet since last week’s Joel Fitzgibbon “spy” scandal, in part, because Rudd’s personal fear of being painted as “the Manchurian candidate” has become self-fulfilling.

    Rudd has appeared embarrassed about his deep and clear-eyed knowledge of China and has shied away from leading intelligent domestic discussion. The vacuum has now been filled by vested interests, maverick senators and ageing cold-war commentators.

    The result is red peril hysteria.

    Since Chinalco’s initial Rio Tinto investment the Government has thrown up a series of arbitrary investment barriers apparently to look like it is “standing up to China” – a stance the Howard government never felt necessary to take. It has sent a message to the Australian public that Chinese money is inherently dangerous.]

    http://business.smh.com.au/business/redperil-hysteria-fills-the-vacuum-left-by-rudd-20090329-9fj3.html?page=-1

  44. I am just wondering if the moves by Rudd and Swan to restrict the Chinalco bid and to potentially derail further “fire sale” investment bids by Chinese Companies is somehow related to the flack being directed against Rudd.

    This also might have a bearing on things.

    [MELBOURNE (Reuters) – Australia’s markets watchdog is suing the country’s third-largest iron ore miner, Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX), and its chief, Andrew Forrest, accusing them of misleading investors over Chinese deals struck five years ago.

    The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said it would also ask the courts to consider barring Forrest, the company’s billionaire founder, from being a company director.

    Fortescue shares fell as much as 8 percent on Friday on the prospect of Forrest being forced out of the company, which said it would defend itself.]

    [“ASIC alleges that Fortescue engaged in misleading and deceptive conduct by overstating the substance and effect of agreements with the three Chinese companies, in announcements and media releases made to the market and investors,” it said.

    Between the relevant dates cited by the commission for its complaints against Fortescue — August 23 and November 9, 2004 — the company’s share price jumped almost four-fold.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSTRE53238620090403?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

  45. Well I cannot believe that The Age has suddenly had an attack of xenophobia over China. But I find it a little curious that instead of giving prime coverage to a main event the G20 we have been getting a running series of personal and dog whistling articles across the board. Nobody believes these people have any real concerns with China’s involvement with us or the USA but are just running gratuitous attack pieces on the government.

    The only connection between the media is their possible financial positions, a lack of advertising money and the government’s slashing of hundred millions of dollars of advertising but having the ability to turn the tap back on.

  46. PAPSTEEF not the catering the whole defence force. I suggested Vietnamese last night and someone said Ghurka’s.
    I’ld be pretty pissed off too if the flight cost $150k and they stuffed up the meal. The staff would be wearing it.

  47. So this guy is for the China bid. Jesus, I don’t like his tone.

    [But Australia will have one hell of a mess on its hands if it turns out that Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan can’t tell the difference between the national interest and the self-interest of BHP. Chinalco’s two-tranche, $US34 billion ($A52 billion) investment in Rio is six times larger than any previous Chinese offshore investment. Blocking it would tear up Australia’s successful policy of engaging with and profiting from China, which began with iron ore and aluminium joint ventures in the 1980s.

    If Rudd and Swan play the nationalism card then their considerable efforts to push Australian financial services companies into the Chinese market will be wasted. AMP and Macquarie Bank — angling for Chinese fund management licences — will be hung out to dry.

    If they can’t trust Australia’s tax, customs and corporate regulators to prevent Chinalco from somehow sneaking illegal cut-price iron ore tankers off to its competitors in China, then Chinese companies will ramp up their investments in other countries.

    The future — from economics to security and climate change — depends on using what small influence Australia has to encourage China to continue opening to the world and play by global rules.

    The Australian Government should leave the business of Chinalco’s investment in Rio Tinto to the company’s shareholders.]
    http://business.theage.com.au/business/dont-play-nationalist-card-against-rio-deal-20090215-884a.html?page=-1

  48. This definitely is an attempt to knock Rudd down to Turnbull’s level in the polls and there seems to be Corporate interests behind it also.

    Peter Hartcher and John Garnaut combine in an even more extensive version in the Canberra Times, even going as far as reviving the Scores episode. WTF

    [The next big test for China’s foreign investment policy will be Australia. Specifically, it will be the application by China’s state-owned Chinalco to take its holding in Rio Tinto to 18 per cent, with bigger stakes in some prize Rio assets. The Federal Government, particularly Treasurer Wayne Swan, is considering the application.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/world/world/general/rudds-manchu-muddle/1478280.aspx?storypage=0

  50. It is coming from every direction now.

    [Has Rudd’s inner bogan been outed?]

    [The majority of us take the view that manners maketh a good ambassador for the vegetarian cause. So we’re more inclined to smooth things over with a flight attendant who’s hovering in the aisle with a meaty meal poised over our tray by asking if we can have a couple of pieces of fruit instead. Or perhaps some cheese and biscuits?

    But the PM once described himself as “a determined bastard.” So it seems settling for a banana or a couple of Jatz crackers wasn’t an option on that VIP flight home from Papua New Guinea. Or was that the flight?

    The PM’s memory of his red-meat rant seems as hazy as his recollections of his visit to a New York strip club or his invite to dine with former West Australian premier, Brian Burke “As I recall it…. I had a discussion with, I think, one of the attendants about the provision of food,” he told reporters at a G20 press conference in London.

    Oh come on! Does a young female flight attendant in tears sound like the result of a discussion about food provision? ]

    [But Mr Rudd did pay a homage, of sorts to that great Australian cultural icon, Barry MacKenzie, when he described his gastric condition after an encouter with a dodgy party pie – or was it chicken kransky – as “driving the porcelain bus.”

    Let’s not forget his warning of a “political shitstorm” during a pre-recorded interview on national television and his g-dropping when talkin’ to the soldier-blokes who were goin’ overseas to do some fightin’.

    In his book “Howard’s End”, academic and political biographer Peter van Onselen described Rudd as a “potty-mouthed” politician who has a repuation for “expletive-ridden rants’’ when things go wrong. ]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/blogs/national-comment/has-rudds-inner-bogan-been-outed/1478099.aspx?storypage=0

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