Morgan: 61-39

Labor has enjoyed an unlikely sounding spike in the latest Morgan poll, to 61-39 from 57-43 a fortnight ago, for which the most likely explanation is that the previous one was a rogue. Its primary vote is up 4.5 per cent to 53 per cent while the Coalition is down 5.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent. The Greens are up two points to 8 per cent. Furthermore:

• The Victorian Nationals have endorsed Bridget McKenzie, a university lecturer and former school teacher from Leongatha, for the safe number two position on the Coalition Senate ticket at the next election. McKenzie fills the position held at the 2004 election by Julian McGauran, who subsequently defected to the Liberals and will now be the number three candidate on the Coalition ticket, with Michael Ronaldson at number one.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto has emerged as another challenger to Josh Frydenberg’s bid to succeed Petro Georgiou as Liberal member for Kooyong.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian notes that beef stroganoff enthusiast John Murphy would almost certainly lose his seat of Lowe in the event that an early election required a “mini-redistribution” to reduce New South Wales to its required number of seats.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper mapping poverty rates by federal electorate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

930 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. With all recent polls showing a gain in the government’s vote it has to be concluded that the opposition’s tactics are failing badly.

  2. Yes, fascinating looking at Morgan’s TPP since the Fed election – the Libs slowly improve until Turnbull becomes leader and then slowly sink back!


  3. But GB there’s no indication that the opposition either realises that or are willing to change, so its good for Labor (not so good for democracy). I’m still fascinated at how Nelson was constantly berated for his poor poll numbers, whereas Turnbull generally gets off scot free

  4. There is another famous Hostie PM moment. Back in the 60s when Jolly John Gorton was our PM he famously asked for a barf bag,( being a little bit under the weather).

    A surprised hostie complied and JG dutifully “techniolour yawned” into the bag. As the Hostie collected the sack of chunder, Gorton smiled and said, “I suppose you are surprised that an old airman could be air sick?”

    She replied, “Not really, but we’re still on the ground”.

  5. Joy – my name would have to change to “Swing Reid” or “Swing Blaxland”…

    Any suggestions for a new moniker?

  6. The real Malcolm Turnbull


    You still have a few weeks before you reply to Wayne Swan’s second budget. You should already be giving it serious thought.

    And during that process you should be thinking about why you are leading the opposition.

    So far, your responses to the governments handling of the looming recession have left you out of the game. Australians have said they support Rudd’s stimulus efforts. They have also said they reject your stand.

    Most Aussies believe you oppose the nation-building programs that affect every school. Most believe that you oppose the cash handouts – while still remembering Peter Costello’s baby bonus free-for-all. Most believe that Australia is actually part of the globe and that world leaders are doing what they can to restore faith in financial systems and markets.

    On the television and in newspapers Aussies see Barack Obama and Gordon Brown and the Asian and European leaders all talking about the need for a coordinated response. They see rescue packages, stimulus packages, Government spending on infrastructure and so on. They see faint but growing messages of hope.

    The only high profile person they see that seems to be wailing and complaining is you – and they can’t work out why (they don’t take notice of your irrelevant colleagues who line up daily on cable TV and radio to complain the moment Rudd or Swan get out of bed).

    What you call “spend-a-thons” Aussies see as link between handouts and jobs. They’ve got no idea of what you are on about.

    Now, I might be wrong and maybe you do support targeted government intervention. Maybe you do support relief to taxpayers. Maybe you are not opposed to the local government public works program.

    But that’s not the overall take-out. You’ve simply turned into a pathetically standard politics 101 opposition leader who whines and carps and plays silly word games.

    You came into politics as a rare beast – successful in business, charismatic, intelligent, representing a vibrant small “l” electorate in Sydney, a man not frightened to take on a case or a cause, a serious contributor to the climate change debate and a tough nut. Not a bad resume for an aspiring Prime Minister.

    Yet, within just a few months you are in danger of throwing that reputation to the dogs and joining the queue of failed opposition leaders.

    At the G20 this week Obama said he gave only one piece of political advice to Gordon Brown, facing an election – “Gordon, good policy is good politics”. He said results may not be immediate, but would prevail.

    Not bad advice, Malcolm. Why don’t you forget that Peter Costello sits behind you – and just do what your instinct and brain tells you?

    Why don’t you clearly spell out your support for nation-building programs that are sustainable? Why don’t you support a review of the tax system that involves more than simply giving bracket creep tax cuts? Why don’t you say that you will cooperate with Rudd on climate change – and that the issue is far bigger than petty party politics still practised in this country? Why don’t you occasionally come out and welcome government economic initiatives. After all, you would do exactly the same on advice of Treasury. Why don’t you take the lead on the republic issue? It’s tailor-made for you! Why don’t you take up the great issue of water – travel Australia, meet the scientists, the farmers, the businesses that could build the infrastructure. Involve Dick Pratt and Jeff Kennett. There are dozens of other opportunities.

    In other words, take a lead – and stand up for what you believe in. Don’t worry about your back bench. They only want one thing – leadership, and a win next year.

    And already, as you know Malcolm, some colleagues are lining up to showcase their talents (and their total and unambiguous support for you) through the pages of the weekend newspaper magazines.

    All the best,

    Alister Drysdale

  7. GG, there was a famous rock band manager who was chasing a hot hostie around the world via Alitalia. Eventually he swept her off the ground and the rest is the history.

    Methinks it must have been Alitalia, that fabulous and glamorous airlines, that she couldn’t wait to get off. It would never happen with SQ.

  8. Just about everybody has at least once gotten angry and been rude to or abused someone, usually its an unfortunate friend, colleague or family member. Nothing unusual in that and, for someone in the public eye you won’t escape doing it once.

    The point is NOT that Rudd lost his temper to some basically innocent bystander (we all know that losing your temper is wrong, but we all continue to do it) but that he did something about it, many don’t. There may have been many things that could have put him on the edge but of course Rudd should have known better, and obviously he realised that. [Wonder if Turnbull ever says sorry?].

    The thing that I find very interesting as reported in the above linked Crikey story is the public’s defence of Rudd. It reveals what is going on in the mind of the average Australian, maybe. They were making excuses for Rudd, standing up for him even though they know he really was wrong.

    The reason I believe people were reacting like this is that they were not reacting to the story of Rudd losing his temper but the reporting of it.

    Possibly, people are assuming that the article has been reported purely as an attempt to attack Rudd and this is what they are reacting against. People also might be finding it unfair to report someone losing their temper and apologizing when it is something everyone does.

    It would be very interesting if the people are standing up for Rudd because they think the press is out to attack him. Apply that to peoples reading and viewing habits and might explain some low viewing and readership figures.

    So every cheap shot The Australian or Turnbull makes at Rudd may be getting people’s backs up.

  9. The Elizabeth Kubler-Ross Grief Cycle, suggests the five stages of grief are: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

    Judging by these comments (if you can wade through them) on the Daily Telegraph’s website, it looks like there are a host of Coalition supporters who have just shifted from denial to anger.

    Boy there are some angry people out there. Whatever you do, don’t show them this Morgan poll, I don’t think their collective cats could handle the kicking. Ouch!,22058,25282526-5001021,00.html

  10. People can’t say its nothing that Rudd overreacts – it rather clashes with the “calm-and-in-control-Kevin” look, but its the timing of the “news” I find suspicious. If it was in January then why run it at all now.

    Anyway, this poll is clear confirmation that nobody but congenital Liberal votes support the “do-nothing” approach on the economy. Turnbull needs to change track. If he can’t do that, then he shouldn’t be a leader. Every leader has to reverse course sometimes; Rudd has already done it once in the shift from inflation/mortgage fighter to job-saver. Its a necessary skill in politics.

  11. [Most believe that Australia is actually part of the globe]

    Correct. So when Turnbuller refers to the global recession as THE RUDD RECESSION, people will mark him down. I reckon they had enough of Liberal dishonesty under old Howard.

  12. [look, but its the timing of the “news” I find suspicious]

    Soc, there are the finger prints of Beijing’s CCCCP all over it. It’s really called the Chinese’s whisper. The CCCCP wants Rudd to eat vegetarian chop suey instead of salad.

  13. Bush and Paulson, even Howard, must be quite relieved to know it is a Rudd Recession. I wonder if anyone will ask Turnbull to explain why none of them are to blame?

    Also, there is quite a bizarre inconsistency in Turnbull’s rhetoric. OTOH he blames Rudd for the recession and implies its not the world’s fault. Yet he also criticises any Rudd attempt to fix it as though external forces wil make it go away. He can’t have it both ways.

  14. Just to clarify my 18, Turnbull must think its either a Rudd caused recession requiring a Rudd solution, or its not our fault/beyond our control and there’s no point wasting money trying to fix it. Both those beliefs can’t be true at once.

  15. its amazing how the opposition believe that simply repeating something like rudd recession over and over again will make the public believe it. Turnbull, in trying for short term popularity and trying to keep his job, is sacrificing his credibility on the economy, the environment, China, and most other issues

  16. Turnbull & Co are still running around saying the 2nd stimulus hasn’t worked even when on the news the very next story after their rant says the 2nd stimulus will start flowing soon, cheques in mail etc. Now we public just aren’t that thick, are we, not to see a blatant lie when it hits us in the face?
    I think all this anti China stuff by the Libs is to prop up their Pauline Hanson type voter support, well can’t blame them i suppose it’s about all they have left bar family and friends 😉

  17. Socrates even i think it is a stupid term. I guess they should be arguing a recession under Rudd will be worse than under Turnbull.

  18. Glen, Something like this?

    “Recessions will always be lower under a Liberal Government.”

    Malcolm Turnbull

  19. Socrates,

    Inconsistencies aside, I’d say the Liberals are running with THE RUDD RECESSION line, assuming that its alliteration will make the necessary impact on some.

    Who is it directed at? I’d say that, as they see their polling numbers progressively falling away, they’re aiming to reach out to their core consistency – the braindead, believe-anything conservative element.

  20. Regarding Kevin and his “outburst” on RAAF #1. Timing is everything and if ever there was a week where his enemies would want to play interference with the PM it’s this week with G20 happening. They tried China and now this. Viewing from afar (I live in the UK now) and getting some media from outside Oz (although the BBC for instance is in the same category as the ABC, ie past it’s best days and a bloated lazy celebrity clutching electronic rag in need of refrom and cheer squad of the opposition) Kevin is really punching above his weight and is clearly taking a considerable but not public centre role in the global initiatives. You can see it in the body language of other leaders around him, he is highly regarded. The fact that the G20 meeting muted for later this year is being suggested to be hosted by Australia speaks volumes.

    BTW re RAAF #1 outburst, RAAF = Defence Dept = hatred of Govt, time for the Govt to harden up majorly to the uniforms and really show them that civilians run the show!

  21. GG
    bet Malcolm hates that video of Kev having a group hug with his good buddies Lula and Obi 😀
    gotta love that lula!

  22. I really don’t believe the success or failure of the government’s economic line is going to be best measured by polling. Governments around the world have suddenly become Keynsians – ie, shovel out the money, even print some more, all hands on to prime the pumps – despite serious doubts among economists as to whether or not this approach ever worked, or will work today. But the general public, itching to spend that stimulus handout no matter what it costs them in the future, ain’t gonna be the ones to register disapproval. We’ve got to be taking the lead from future-oriented, economically literate people in times like this. Mind you, many of THEM are cross-eyed with what’s going on at a global level. Was talking to a US Democrat senator’s director the other day. Cross your fingers and pray is perhaps the best description of where we’re all going. In short, polling not much help here I’m afraid, but best not to assume that the leader with the highest approval rating also has the best policy when there’s massive cash handouts involved.

  23. The latest trade figures could forestall or in a best case scenario stave off 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Poor old Melcom (deliberate spelling like the way he speaks) would have to find a new alliterative altercation against all ALP appratchicks!

  24. […despite serious doubts among economists …]

    I think that it has been shown to be effective. I know Krugman keeps banging his head against the wall after giving example and explanation onw after another to those groups of economists where Keyens wasnt even studied.

  25. It has to be said that the Liberal approach to the GFC is not viewed by most economists as the answer either Emma.
    To say BOTH stimpacs have failed, as Hockey is saying, is just plain dishonest.

  26. From the Tele’s blog on Rudd vs Hostie story:

    [big deal i come to this country with no english and worked in a factory for 9 years and the first 2 years i went home and cried my eyes out because i was told off and beeing bullied i worked there for another 7 years i tufted up and i was the best packer and a trainer for the new comers if you want to succeed be strong air hostesses get a very good money and bonuses so get tuff and get on with your job dont be a daddy’s girl – Posted by: maria stratton 2:39pm today, Comment 366 of 385],22058,25282526-5001021,00.html

    William, you’re such a pussy cat.

  27. Stimulus seems to be the only game in town. Everything else that’s being proposed – stronger regulation and tax cuts – will either take too long for immediate remedial effect (regulation) or will intensify budgetary weakness (tax cuts).

  28. I think Hockey will lead us next year… … then next year Moses …… then next year GOD …. to our Promised Land. Hallelujah.

  29. [LONDON, April 2 (Xinhua) — Chinese President Hu Jintao on Thursday met with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd after the second Group of 20 (G20) financial summit ended in London.

    The two leaders were discussing bilateral relations and ways to implement the agreement reached at the London summit.
    Hu and Rudd last met in Washington last November when the leaders of the G20 gathered for the first time to discuss how to tackle the global financial crisis.

    The London summit concluded Thursday afternoon with consensus on how to save the world out of the financial crisis, including a pledge of 1.1trillion U.S. dollars to revive the world economy, a joint call to fight protectionism, and concrete actions to tighten banking regulation. ]

  30. TP

    Interesting about the Chinese meeting. I hope Rudd and company DON”T keep this one under wraps. There is nothing embarassing when the leader of the world’s largest and now 3rd wealthiest country wants to meet you after a major world conference. They shoudl tackle the racists head on, say that it is essential to Australia’s national interest that we trade with China, and that means talking to them. Then Turnbull will have to either agree, look like a racist or just shut up.

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