Morgan: 61-39

Labor has enjoyed an unlikely sounding spike in the latest Morgan poll, to 61-39 from 57-43 a fortnight ago, for which the most likely explanation is that the previous one was a rogue. Its primary vote is up 4.5 per cent to 53 per cent while the Coalition is down 5.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent. The Greens are up two points to 8 per cent. Furthermore:

• The Victorian Nationals have endorsed Bridget McKenzie, a university lecturer and former school teacher from Leongatha, for the safe number two position on the Coalition Senate ticket at the next election. McKenzie fills the position held at the 2004 election by Julian McGauran, who subsequently defected to the Liberals and will now be the number three candidate on the Coalition ticket, with Michael Ronaldson at number one.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto has emerged as another challenger to Josh Frydenberg’s bid to succeed Petro Georgiou as Liberal member for Kooyong.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian notes that beef stroganoff enthusiast John Murphy would almost certainly lose his seat of Lowe in the event that an early election required a “mini-redistribution” to reduce New South Wales to its required number of seats.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper mapping poverty rates by federal electorate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

930 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. [Where’s my money?]

    Your mob voted against it and the ATO knows who you are. Sorry. That’s the way it goes.

  2. I wonder if Kev’s hostie was the daughter of the hostie Bill Snedden died on top of? (..or was that Gorton? I do get my Conservative philandering hypocrits confused…)

  3. Any Liberal voter who supports the Libs on the stimpac should give it back. Go on Glen, give it back when it arrives.

  4. [I wonder if Kev’s hostie was the daughter of the hostie…]

    Why would you even think this let alone post it?

  5. Principle is not high on your priorities then Glen. You and your fellow supporters could cut the deficit substantially you know.

  6. GB

    Good idea about the Libs giving the money back on principle. They could call the policy “Malcolm zero 900.”

  7. From the previous thread.

    [ Andrew
    Posted Friday, April 3, 2009 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    45.5/55.5 Last Morgan for Nelson
    39/61 Latest Morgan for Turnbull

    What an outstanding success that leadership change has been]

    And this optimistic premonition from Peter Hartcher on August 23, 2008. Slightly premature and wildly optimistic one would feel.

    [The Liberal Party needs to snap out of its Costello fantasy and recognise that it needs to act to install Turnbull. He might not win the next election, but he will probably arrest the Coalition’s descent into unelectability.]

  8. Scorpio she did sound as though she had had a few.

    I hadnt watched it but although she is smart she did come off as very slow.

    No it is my money, i pay my taxes and so i should get this cash!

  9. No 67

    I had a peruse of my local ABC shop in order to buy both films, but only the Howard Years was available.

  10. No 39

    Fiberal? Oh dear. Keep your own house in order before commenting on the Liberals. Fitzgibbon anyone?

  11. [RACHEL FRY: What about the long-term disbenefits, though? ]

    Bwahahaha, lucky she speaks mandarin. πŸ˜‰ (I know its a real word but really).

  12. [Bullbutter i pay my taxes and i want my gift ]

    Shhhh don’t call it a gift!!!

    [I had a peruse of my local ABC shop in order to buy both films, but only the Howard Years was available.]

    A mate of mine wrote to the ABC about Labor in Power got a reply along the lines of they didn’t have the copyright to produce a DVD version. Pretty much you’ll only find it now in VHS is the odd public library. plus snippets on youtube.

  13. This ‘did not rate a mention in the mainstream US media,’ the article says. It’d be the main newstory on all our TV news if it was Rudd πŸ˜‰ remember the “salute”?
    They must just ignore the Repub rants over there?
    [Conservative American commentators have accused Barack Obama of “grovelling” to an Arab monarch at the G20 summit in London.

    A photo and video footage of the US President bowing to Saudi Arabian King Abdullah at yesterday’s G20 meet-and-greet has been doing the rounds on the internet today.]

  14. [No it is my money, i pay my taxes and so i should get this cash!]

    Glen, shouldn’t that be “I should get this ‘cash splash'”?

  15. GP, Glen won’t give his stimpac money back. You’re a man of principle. Do you get any of this money? Will you be giving it back? Will you encourage all of your Liberal mates to give it back and reduce the deficit in line with their policy?

  16. [? Disbenefit clearly means the opposite of benefit. There is nothing uncommon about ]it.]

    Have to say there’s something contrafribularity about it, or at the very least compunctuous.

    Though I am surely it is a perfectly cromulent word, and will embiggen us all.

  17. [Disbenefit clearly means the opposite of benefit. There is nothing uncommon about it.]
    True GP,
    In fact it is used alot as per the following example:

    [The Liberals are a disbenefit to ordinary aussies.
    Labor benefits all aussies.]

  18. GP

    Forgive me my classical english public school education, latin, greek, french, german. disbenefit is a word, a fact I alluded to.

    To use this word one would assume it would be in context – read the QANDA transcript. Disadvantage is the word I think is more appropriate. πŸ˜›

  19. Obama is coming to Australia ….. as he is going to Indonesia:

    [US president Barack Obama plans to visit Indonesia this year, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono told reporters during a flight from London to Surabaya, East Java, on Thursday night.

    Obama had announced the plan to his Indonesian counterpart while the two leaders were sitting next to each other at a working breakfast during the G-20 summit in London, on Thursday morning (local time).

    “When I told Obama that the people of Indonesia were awaiting his visit, he said he planned to do so this year,” Yudhoyono said, as quoted by Antara news agency. If Obama’s plan is realized, the US president would meet his former elementary school friends in Jakarta.]

    And where is me mate, the Man from Showy River? as Obi is speaking the real lingo:

    [At one point during the G-20 summit, Obama had surprisingly tapped Yudhoyono on the shoulder and asked, “Feeling tired?” “Then I said, ‘No, I am OK.’ He still remembers a lot of Indonesian words, such as ‘apa kabar’ for how are you, and ‘capek’ for feeling tired.”]

    And he would also visit the hawker food stall for his Soto soup.

    btw: APAC is replaying Gordon Brown G20 press conf right now to be followed by Obi’s.

  20. Finns there has been talk of another G20 meeting towards the end of the year that Kev has put his hand up for, so we would see Obi then.

  21. [She is luscious, but I am already acquainted with someone else.]

    How sad, what has happened to the youth of today? Acquainted – how quaint. πŸ™‚

  22. [Looks like last night’s broken record is still playing Gus. Time to get a new joke. ]

    the fibs are an ongoing joke GP, and any added extra’s I will gladly play upon

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