ACNielsen: 58-42

The Fairfax broadsheets have published an ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters showing federal Labor’s two-party lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 at the previous poll in November. Labor leads on the primary vote 47 per cent to 37 per cent. Also in the poll:

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up four points to a stratospheric 74 per cent, the highest ever recorded by ACNielsen, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is down eight to 43 per cent. Their respective disapproval ratings are 22 per cent (steady) and 47 per cent (up 12 per cent).

• Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred prime minister 69 per cent to 24 per cent, his lead increasing seven points.

• Remarkably, 57 per cent say Kevin Rudd would be “justified in calling an early election to try and break the Senate impasse that has frustrated the passing of some legislation” (although they might think differently if they realised no double dissolution trigger existed, and that any election for the House of Representatives before the middle of next year would throw the two houses’ cycles out of sync).

• Peter Costello is favoured as Liberal leader by 47 per cent against 39 per cent for Turnbull, although Turnbull has closed the gap six points.

• 66 per cent say they oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan, a near identical result to last week’s Newspoll.

In other news:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns. Charts aplenty from Possum, here and here.

• The Victorian Liberals have advertised for federal election candidates in Kooyong, Corangamite and Deakin. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews says “long-time Liberal fundraiser and multi-millionaire Andrew Abercrombie is believed to be the Baillieu faction’s secret weapon candidate” to run in Kooyong against the Josh Frydenberg, who is backed by the Kroger camp and “Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers man”, Senator Michael Ronaldson.

• The Australian reports the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association have joined in a “Moscow-Berlin pact” to seek a “Senate-style system for Victorian upper house preselections”. This would deny rank-and-file members a vote, and circumvent the recent deal between the two unions’ intra-factional rivals. For their part, the latter group are threatening to back separate ballots for each position rather than proportional representation, which would allow them to secure a clean sweep. More from Andrew Landeryou.

• Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports that former Premier Alan Carpenter has backed Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri to replace Jim McGinty as Labor’s candidate in Fremantle. His presumed rival, LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly, now says he is no longer interested. While still denying it publicly, it is almost universally anticipated that McGinty will shortly quit parliament so a by-election can be held in conjunction with the May 16 referendum on daylight saving. Last week the Herald reported that Keith McCorriston, Maritime Union of Australia official and local party branch president, had “also emerged as a contender”. It was also reported that WA Opinion Polls had been canvassing the electorate asking respondents about Tagliaferri and Greens candidate Adele Carles.

• Speaking of which, The West Australian reports daylight saving advocates have been peddling an “online poll of 610 voters conducted last week by independent research company Synovate”, showing 50.5 per cent planning to vote yes against 46.8 per cent for no. Despite the smaller sample of 400, a Westpoll survey published earlier in the month showing 57 per cent for no and 42 per cent for yes might be thought more credible.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have been keeping busy with preselections for the state election due next March. Mark Worley of the Sunday Tasmanian reports three new candidates have been chosen for Franklin: Vanessa Goodwin, a criminologist who narrowly failed to win a seat in 2006; Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton; and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Party leader Will Hodgman will be a fourth, while the fifth will be “left open until later in the year”.

• In Bass, sitting members Peter Gutwein and Sue Napier will be joined by Michael Ferguson, who gained the federal seat for the Liberals in 2004 and lost it in 2007, and David Fry, who filled a vacancy in 2000 but failed to win election in his own right in 2002 or 2006. As in Franklin, a fifth position has been left vacant for the time being.

• Sue Neales of the Mercury reports plans to preselect candidates in Denison have been deferred as the Liberals are “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent”. Michael Hodgman, whose parliamentary career goes back to 1966, is apparently set on another term despite being 70 years old and “suffering ill health”. From Michelle Paine of the Mercury (thanks to Peter Tucker of Tasmanian Politics for scanning this) comes a report that Marti Zucco, Hobart alderman and twice-unsuccessful independent upper house candidate, is also gearing up to nominate despite troubled relations with the party.

• Over the fence, Rebecca White, a 26-year-old electorate officer to federal Denison MP Duncan Kerr, has been confirmed as a starter for Labor in Lyons.

• Anna Bligh says she will discuss fixed terms, possibly of four years, with whoever ends up leading the Liberal National Party. Queensland is the only state which still has terms of three years.

• Graeme Orr writes on the impact of optional preferential voting at the Queensland election, and related matters, at Australian Policy Online.

• Gary Morgan takes aim at Newspoll and Galaxy over their under-estimation of Labor’s vote in Brisbane. To which they might justifiably reply: either shit or get off the pot. When Morgan starts publishing his own state polls, and when these prove more accurate than his rivals, then he can reasonably presume to start giving them advice.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead blowing out to 63-37 from 60-40 last week, and also shows Kevin Rudd’s approval rating at record levels: 21 per cent for “strongly approve”, his best result since this question was first asked last September. Malcolm Turnbull’s overall approval rating is down four points to 28 per cent and his disapproval up five to 48 per cent. In answer to George Megalogenis’s question on Insiders yesterday, 50 per cent say our troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan, and 75 per cent say there should be more armed security at airports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,669 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

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  1. 1442 Generic Person – and very rarely do we see or hear specific examples of it, which says much of it is a beat up. We really don’t know what was said in this instance or how delicate this lady was do we? Of course you’ll picture Rudd as an out of control ranting madman when he probably spoke a little harshly. He apologised. End of story.

  2. GP,

    He’s a man of passion. Would you expect any different?

    However, all these anti Government leaks from sources close to the DOD. Is there a conspiracy? Have certain elements of the DOD taken over the role of Opposition because the Liberal incumbants are so hopeless?

  4. [How about the taliban- they look tough and we could fight fire with fire]

    Wouldnt we need the CIA’s approval,considering they set em up in to oppose the ruski’s???

  7. every man has his price Gusface! (except if you’re Thomas Moore). i think a few battalion of taliban and some Viet Kong platoons would cost but a fraction of the defence force budget- guns for hire, vigilantes

  8. [Have certain elements of the DOD taken over the role of Opposition because the Liberal incumbants are so hopeless]

    A certain spice may be added by the fact that DOD has a new high tech C/C near downtown bungendore,to which SOME of the brass are supposedly relocating.

    perhaps a bit of premise envy is in play???

  10. 1453

    It’s not beside the point. All that we know of this ‘incident’ is what’s been posted on the internet around a hour ago. The journalists credited with the exclusive haven’t named names (normally a good indication of an unsubstantiated beat up) and those ‘involved’ haven’t had an opportunity to respond. It’s not knicker twisting time by a long shot.

  11. [SNIP: Quotation of defamatory comment deleted – The Management]
    Hell, Howard should have resigned long before the last election then.

  14. We are quite happy with the two best treasurers (in order) on the government side of the house. The two best PMs (in order) as well. 😀

  26. No 1470

    Costello is by far the best Treasurer we’ve ever had, but I’m willing to give Tanner the opportunity to improve upon that extraordinarily high standard set by Costello.

  29. GP Swan is an economist and has exceeded all expectations – from your mob unfortunately. Also it could be insulting to include Tanner in the same sentence as Cossie.

  30. One final question:

    What caption would suit that photo of Howard on the phone?

    I had in mind “Ahh Janette, I think I might be home late tonight.”

  33. [Howard was neither incompetent nor a liar.]

    believe what you want,but remember this

    HOWARD BROKE AUSTRALIA”S HEART and my missuses

    We ausssies ,especially me,will never forgive nor forget.

  38. William

    care to clarify my opine regarding seat V place of birth
    ( I think it is a valid Q,as many of our early PM’s were foreign born)
    Ta

  39. I don’t know what you mean, Gusface. We were discussing, for some reason, electorates that are or aren’t worthy of being served by prime ministers. I submit that my own electorate of Fremantle has historically performed pretty well on this score.

  40. SNIP: Not fair of me to allow responses to commenters I’m not allowing to answer back. Let’s move on please – The Management.

  41. Rudd has had a, I think, a heart valve transplant, he would probably need to have a special diet. I think it was right for him to apologise. I can see tomorrow being a Rudd bashing day, where it was good to read the papers today – it seemed toned down…a bit.

  42. WB
    I was conceding that curtin in freo, if we used seat as opposed to place of birth, would then qualify WA as having a PM (the first and only)

    Moot point but all the same,I believe the criteria should be SEAT as opposed to PLACE OF BIRTH

    yours respectfully
    Gusface

  43. The DOD should remind itself that it is not a normal government department and that activity by it to undermine the government of the day does not fall into whistle blower category. And it should be wary of pushing the envelope too far.

    Rogue DODs are something that should be confined to Fiji and the like.

    This is where MSM falls down on their duty to Australia.

    Firstly their slovenly adoption of the role of federal Opposition allows the Liberal Opposition to be incompetent and unable to become effective. They want to hold government to a standard but the Turnbull Liberals to no standard. They would rather try and force an incompetent govt onto the country. This is of no help to democracy or the public.

    Secondly the MSM are well aware of how the Howard govt corrupted the public service and the DOD, getting to the stage where the government was able to use them as a personal private defence force – to stage raids on the Tampa for politics, to lie for the government during an election campaign and now we can probably add dirt digging on the Labor members on behalf of the Liberal Party.

    That the MSM do not find this in the least disturbing, they have no problem with the DOD with its military might is becoming politicised, let itself be used and abused to support one side of politics and willing to play in politics?

    The MSM should be taking a zero tolerance approach to this sort of thing. The real story today is not that Rudd gave somebody a tongue lashing but that the DOD is engaging directly in politics. Or at least there is the implication that it is. How far will they let it creep?

  45. [I believe the criteria should be SEAT as opposed to PLACE OF BIRTH }
    To determine whether each stae has produced a PM

    if we use POB, WA misses out
    if we use SEAT, WA can Claim a PM

    Sorry
    🙁

  46. On the fate of Germans after the war:

    1. Very, very low numbers of german POWs survived the Gulags to get back home.
    2. Figures vary, but around 50,000 Dutch people starved to death during the ‘Hungry Winter’ in WW2. The Germans had stripped the country after the Dutch underground tried to support the allies in the failed ‘Bridge Too Far’ episode.
    3. Humanity being what it is, if you start a war in which tens of millions die, more tens of millions are wounded, more tens of millions are used up as slave labourers, more tens of millions are displaced from their homes and/or their countries, several hundreds of millions go hungy, and you murder about 6 million because they are Jews, Gays or Romanies, you should not be unduly surprised if people don’t rush to you with food aid when the war is over. Particularly when they are still hungry themselves.

  47. Gusface, I seem to remember your point being that WA shouldn’t provide a PM as it was only good for farming and mining, and it was apparently incumbent upon me to provide arguments to the contrary.

  48. [Gusface, I seem to remember your point being that WA shouldn’t provide a PM as it was only good for farming and mining, and it was apparently incumbent upon me to provide arguments to the contrary.]

    Not at all Sir

    I was postulating on the case of WA never having a “local” as PM.
    I merely was providing some theories to stimulate debate.

    My apols for any offence caused

  50. I am not sure why people on this blog who support workers against bad bosses would leap to the defence of Rudd on his treatment of his office workers or of another stray worker. The symbolism is wrong. Prime ministers should be exemplary bosses and employers.

    In the scheme of things, it is a small fault in a Prime Minister who is otherwise operating at a very high level of prime ministerial competence.

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