ACNielsen: 58-42

The Fairfax broadsheets have published an ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters showing federal Labor’s two-party lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 at the previous poll in November. Labor leads on the primary vote 47 per cent to 37 per cent. Also in the poll:

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up four points to a stratospheric 74 per cent, the highest ever recorded by ACNielsen, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is down eight to 43 per cent. Their respective disapproval ratings are 22 per cent (steady) and 47 per cent (up 12 per cent).

• Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred prime minister 69 per cent to 24 per cent, his lead increasing seven points.

• Remarkably, 57 per cent say Kevin Rudd would be “justified in calling an early election to try and break the Senate impasse that has frustrated the passing of some legislation” (although they might think differently if they realised no double dissolution trigger existed, and that any election for the House of Representatives before the middle of next year would throw the two houses’ cycles out of sync).

• Peter Costello is favoured as Liberal leader by 47 per cent against 39 per cent for Turnbull, although Turnbull has closed the gap six points.

• 66 per cent say they oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan, a near identical result to last week’s Newspoll.

In other news:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns. Charts aplenty from Possum, here and here.

• The Victorian Liberals have advertised for federal election candidates in Kooyong, Corangamite and Deakin. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews says “long-time Liberal fundraiser and multi-millionaire Andrew Abercrombie is believed to be the Baillieu faction’s secret weapon candidate” to run in Kooyong against the Josh Frydenberg, who is backed by the Kroger camp and “Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers man”, Senator Michael Ronaldson.

• The Australian reports the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association have joined in a “Moscow-Berlin pact” to seek a “Senate-style system for Victorian upper house preselections”. This would deny rank-and-file members a vote, and circumvent the recent deal between the two unions’ intra-factional rivals. For their part, the latter group are threatening to back separate ballots for each position rather than proportional representation, which would allow them to secure a clean sweep. More from Andrew Landeryou.

• Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports that former Premier Alan Carpenter has backed Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri to replace Jim McGinty as Labor’s candidate in Fremantle. His presumed rival, LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly, now says he is no longer interested. While still denying it publicly, it is almost universally anticipated that McGinty will shortly quit parliament so a by-election can be held in conjunction with the May 16 referendum on daylight saving. Last week the Herald reported that Keith McCorriston, Maritime Union of Australia official and local party branch president, had “also emerged as a contender”. It was also reported that WA Opinion Polls had been canvassing the electorate asking respondents about Tagliaferri and Greens candidate Adele Carles.

• Speaking of which, The West Australian reports daylight saving advocates have been peddling an “online poll of 610 voters conducted last week by independent research company Synovate”, showing 50.5 per cent planning to vote yes against 46.8 per cent for no. Despite the smaller sample of 400, a Westpoll survey published earlier in the month showing 57 per cent for no and 42 per cent for yes might be thought more credible.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have been keeping busy with preselections for the state election due next March. Mark Worley of the Sunday Tasmanian reports three new candidates have been chosen for Franklin: Vanessa Goodwin, a criminologist who narrowly failed to win a seat in 2006; Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton; and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Party leader Will Hodgman will be a fourth, while the fifth will be “left open until later in the year”.

• In Bass, sitting members Peter Gutwein and Sue Napier will be joined by Michael Ferguson, who gained the federal seat for the Liberals in 2004 and lost it in 2007, and David Fry, who filled a vacancy in 2000 but failed to win election in his own right in 2002 or 2006. As in Franklin, a fifth position has been left vacant for the time being.

• Sue Neales of the Mercury reports plans to preselect candidates in Denison have been deferred as the Liberals are “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent”. Michael Hodgman, whose parliamentary career goes back to 1966, is apparently set on another term despite being 70 years old and “suffering ill health”. From Michelle Paine of the Mercury (thanks to Peter Tucker of Tasmanian Politics for scanning this) comes a report that Marti Zucco, Hobart alderman and twice-unsuccessful independent upper house candidate, is also gearing up to nominate despite troubled relations with the party.

• Over the fence, Rebecca White, a 26-year-old electorate officer to federal Denison MP Duncan Kerr, has been confirmed as a starter for Labor in Lyons.

• Anna Bligh says she will discuss fixed terms, possibly of four years, with whoever ends up leading the Liberal National Party. Queensland is the only state which still has terms of three years.

• Graeme Orr writes on the impact of optional preferential voting at the Queensland election, and related matters, at Australian Policy Online.

• Gary Morgan takes aim at Newspoll and Galaxy over their under-estimation of Labor’s vote in Brisbane. To which they might justifiably reply: either shit or get off the pot. When Morgan starts publishing his own state polls, and when these prove more accurate than his rivals, then he can reasonably presume to start giving them advice.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead blowing out to 63-37 from 60-40 last week, and also shows Kevin Rudd’s approval rating at record levels: 21 per cent for “strongly approve”, his best result since this question was first asked last September. Malcolm Turnbull’s overall approval rating is down four points to 28 per cent and his disapproval up five to 48 per cent. In answer to George Megalogenis’s question on Insiders yesterday, 50 per cent say our troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan, and 75 per cent say there should be more armed security at airports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,669 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

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  4. DOD SITREP 0100 ACK EMMA 3APR2009

    ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED

    DOD DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. RED TEAM IS THOROUGHLY AROUSED. CAMOUFLAGE OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND GLOBAL WARMING NO LONGER EFFECTIVE FOR TEAM DOD. RED TEAM IS SOFTENING CIVILIAN OPINION PRIOR TO DECLARATION OF OPEN WAR. RED TEAM IS ACTIVELY GATHERING INTELLIGENCE. FORMER DOD ALLY SHERIDAN HAS BEEN TURNED. RED TEAM CONSIDERING MINISTERIAL REINFORCEMENTS. ANTICIPATE RED TEAM WILL USE ALL MEANS AT DISPOSAL. ANTICIPATE VERY HEAVY CASUALTIES AMONG ALL SENIOR RANKS.

    FABIAN TACTICS ADVISED.

  5. [DOD SITREP 0100 ACK EMMA 3APR2009]
    Office of CJIO

    geez those fossils in DOD dont realise under Howies 2006 legislation we get all their correspondence.

    Msg ends

  7. Some Australian Political Music History.

    Apparently there was a group called The Young australians which were apparently funded by the South Australian Branch of the Liberal Party and had a No 1 “Hit” in 1967 with a track called Shadow Valleys and Iron Triangles.

    A Discussion of this track is on this blog, and includes a link to the mp3 of said tack.

    http://pub44.bravenet.com/forum/3725630012/show/1010683

    From one of the Posts which includes the download link.

    [As to those Young Aussies, for those unaware, this supposedly patriotic but instead rather hilariously moralistic, essentially spoken word monologue set to music, was a huge #1 smash in Adelaide in 1967 during the height of the the Vietnam War protest movement. It failed to make any other charts elsewhere though. Some may wonder why hhehehehe]

    Ripped from vinyl single @320 kbps

    http://www.megaupload.com/?d=V7PZWPWU

    I’ve downloaded and it is a real patriotic monologue and from a later reply:

    [It was a smash hit in Adel;aide largely for having been recorded here…the voice-over was by Rex Heading, who was manager of Adelaide’s Channel 9 studios; he also read the epilogue played each night before station closedown.

    I recall hearing that it had been financed largely by the local Liberal Party office. ]

    Enjoy 🙂 And william – this would be an excellent addition to your vast musical library 🙂

  8. [I personally wasn’t born in WA, so my local credentials are about the same as Hawke’s or Curtin’s.]

    You Traitor 🙂

  9. Two issues. Rudd’s bad behaviour. Which he has appologised for. DOD engaging in politics and having a history of being used for political ends. A situation that ought to be cleaned up quick smart.

    I recall Andrew Wilkie detailing along the lines how defence acted on behalf of Govt instruction to do a raid on the Tampa and other things. He also mentions how he was harassed and presurised by defence types after leaving defence. Apart from the waste a decade of the Howard Govt defence needs a good clean out. That it thinks it is ok to do leaks for political ends is a red flag.

  11. Turnbull wants to give unprecedented tax breaks to small businesses. What is the difference in giving unprecedented tax breaks and having an unprecedented stimulus package? have I lost something here??

  13. no broadband. But I think this modem is on the blink. Has dropped out 5 times tonight. Or maybe the ISP. But I think the modem as the only way to fix the problem is turn it off and on.

  14. Tax breaks in combination with stimulus payments and the like. Feed both ends of the equation. I think the government just did a tax deal for small business to the the tune of $700m?

  17. This is why Dr Doom Roubini, usually the eternal pessimist comes out on top of Krugman in my book.

    Roubini deals with the world where the Whitehouse has now made its choices regarding how to fix the banks (against the advice of some economists like Roubini and Krugman). Krugman is still barking at the long gone caravan and instead embitters his relationship with the Whitehouse, because they are not doing what he wants. So he trades away his influence because he wants to keep lecturing to them and undermining them.

    Roubinin on the other hand doesn’t deal in undermining confidence in the Government.

    Krugman keeps laboring the point and is starting to get to the point where he is an asset to the Republicans. He may be a great academic economist but is turning out to be less than smart since apparently he is a supporter of the left. He would have been smarter to make his argument, accept their decision and keep his influence for future battles.

    [Light At The End Of The Tunnel …
    Dim and distant, but a glimmer nonetheless!]
    http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/01/recession-g20-economy-market-opinions-columnists-nouriel-roubini.html

  18. Australian Young Labor (AYL) is the youth wing of the Australian Labor Party and includes all ALP members under the age of 26. As a young member of the ALP you are automatically a part of this exciting group.

  19. Not me, over 50 and not a member of any party. Hmm have had some personal, business and govt expereince with Aust and foreign middle and upper mngnt of defences in earlier lives.

  20. I wondered at the time why the attempt to sequester carbon by fertilising 300sqkm of ocean with iron did not work. The idea was to stimulate phytoplankton blooms by adding iron, all the extra phytoplankton would suck up lots of extra CO2, then they would all die and sink to the ocean depths, carrying lots of carbonates with them as they went. Global Warming fixed!

    It is a generally accepted fact that a lack of iron is often a critical limiting factor in phytoplankton productivity, so adding the iron should have done the trick.

    The main trouble with Terraforming, as Global Warming demonstrates, is that things generally turn out to be a fair bit more complicated than the Terraformers figure it will be when they get to tinkering with Earth’s systems.

    In this case, it looks like the krill were just swimming around waiting for more phytoplankton to eat.

  21. [The Prime Minister was forced to apologise for his behaviour, which appalled a number of senior Government officials. ]

    The old Tory line: Labor people don’t know how to behave in polite company.

    And to how many “senior government officials” did the Tele speak to justify that “appalled” comment?

  22. Shanahan in this morning’s OO:

    [Until the Coalition realises where it has been and where it is going, the Rudd Government will continue to be popular and get away with murder.]

    So there we have it. Shanahan thinks the government is “getting away with murder” and that’s why he disdains Turnbull’s tactics: only because they don’t help the cause.

    Q.E.D.

  23. Bushfire Bill

    This has really nothing to do with Tory notions of politeness, the number of appalled senior government officials, or even the motivation of the Tele.

    It has everything to do with an individual event in which a Prime Minister abused a very junior worker.

    The power imbalance is enormous. This is not the PM carpeting a senior Minister behind closed doors. This is a public humiliation of a junior person. The Prime Minister realized he was wrong to do so, and apologized.

    It is newsworthy that he was abusive, and it is fair enough for voters to know that he did it and that he then apologized. How they react is then up to them. My guess is that the overwhelming majority will think something like:

    ‘Well, I wish he hadn’t done it, but he did, and he apologized. I hope he doesn’t do it again because it isn’t right. Now, let him get on with fixing Global Warming and the GFC.’

  25. BB @ 1522

    Yes, what an interesting article from Shanahan! I do wish I was a subbie:

    ‘Homicidal Government Escapes Turnbull Noose’

    ‘Turnbull Fumbles Hangman’s Knot’

    ‘Downunder Killer Stalking G20’

  27. You miss my point BW. The standard line the Tories use against Labor is that Labor guys fart in front of the Queen, or similar. The idea is that Labor people don’t have the social skills or graces to be worthy of holding the reins of power. Their women are fat and frumpy and nasty (Therese Rein, Belinda Neal), their ministers offend all the wrong people (Joel Fitzgibbon), their Treasurers are incompetent (Swan), they manhandle the sovereign (Lizard of Oz), they sack perfect decent equerries in government House (Quentin Bryce) and now they abuse defenceless junior members of staff enough to make them cry.

    “Senior government officials” are “appalled” I tell you. Appalled!

    But really, what would you expect from this bunch of amateurs?

  28. BB, i must take a Bex and have a good lie down.

    Shanananana is actualy being very very sensible and right in his analysis:

    [Well, forgive me, but you can’t walk away from that overnight and try to blame the Government for playing the race card. Rudd is a Sinophile and it does affect his judgemnt, but it’s a stretch to say he’ll give way on Australia’s national interest. Not only that, but to abandon the advocacy of a greater say for China in world affairs, while remaining dubious about China’s military ambitions, is to give away one of the great achievements of the Howard government.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25281575-17301,00.html

    Just wondering if this article is actually his master’s voice.

  29. BB

    If your point is that there is a Tory class notion that Labor people do not know how to behave in polite society, and that this somehow means that Labor is therefore unfit to form Government, I would be inclined to agree somewhat with you. I remember in particular the HORROR that greeted Prime Minister Keating ACTUALLY TOUCHING the QUEEN. GAD!

    My view about this particular incident is separate to all that crap. Rudd’s behaviour to a junior staffer was abusive. That was inappropriate. Rudd has apologised for it. Behaviour noted, not at all nice; apology noted, not a hanging offence, time to move on to very important things, like Global Warming and the Global Financial Crisis.

    I would like to think that the particular Senior Government Officials present at the time were appalled, did tackle Rudd on his behaviour, and did persuade him to apologize. That would have taken moral courage, and I also believe that there is a bit of that about amongst senior government officials.

    But wait, talking about a ‘hanging’ offence, another thought has just crossed my mind. Maybe this was the ‘murder’ that was Shanahan was on about?

    BTW, the other bit of the plot that thickens here is the possibility, if not probability, that DOD officials have indulged in some more kamikazi behaviour vis-a-vis who leaked the story of this incident? This Government is now going to be very, very motivated indeed to clean up DOD.

  30. With regard Rudd getting upset with his meal, take a look at when the event took place. I may be a new DOD leak, but it is old news, that is why the papers really aren’t that interested.

    As for long term damage, it in the same category as going to a strip show, he loses it at times, at least he has the decency to apologize.

    No the real story here is the leaking, why 3 months after the event, why now and why?

  31. Finns

    Most of what Shanahan says about China is blindingly obvious to eveyone, except for the dropkicks who are ruining the Federal Opposition.

    Shanahan’s point is that the China issues are important, complex and multifarious, that Turnbull and Co have wasted an existing Opposition strength, have turned the strength into a weakness, have made a mess of some important individual issues while they were at it, and in so doing have let the Government off the hook.

    Shanahan’s reference to the Rudd Government ‘getting away with murder’ is a pity. It distracts from an otherwise useful piece of journalism. It at least gets past the dog whistling yellow peril mongers and gets to the nitty gritty of some of the real issues facing us.

  33. [With regard Rudd getting upset with his meal, take a look at when the event took place. I may be a new DOD leak, but it is old news, that is why the papers really aren’t that interested.]

    According to Ulhman this morning this story has been kicking around Canberra for weeks and no one, for whatever reason, chose to run with it. Apparently (Ahlman didn’t say this) the Libs didn’t run with it as Turnbull has shown worse behaviour than Rudd and that bad behaviour appears rregularly.

  34. Just on Germany after the war:
    my mother, then a teenager, organised her Youth Group to send a package of food to Germany.
    She got back a letter in German, which she couldn’t read but assumed was simply to thank her.
    About thirty years later, she found it again and gave it to my father, a fluent German speaker, to translate.
    I still remember her in floods of tears, because the letter said they didn’t need food, but were in desperate need of blankets and warm clothing.

  37. Since this is friday, I have a confession to make. I also have a very short fuse when it comes to the service providers. Especially when the services that i have paid for have not been met and the snafus are clearly the fault of the SPs. I, too, have often made the SPs into tears and I dont apologise.

    eg: The other day, i requested a bank account of mine that I hardly use anymore to be cancelled and deleted. But the teller “accidental” deleted the wrong one. They deleted the one that I use everyday and where many auto deductions are being made. There is no “ooops” feature in their system so they cannot retrieve the acct once deleted. So they have to create a brand new account for me and it took me 3 days to link-up everything again. I wanted to kill the teller, but I believe that is against the law.

    So Mr. Rudd, i am with you all the way if your SPs have not met the SLA (service level agreement).

  38. [His {Turnbull’s} critics see him as brash, arrogant, condescending and impatient.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/this-goose-is-cracking-the-golden-egg/2008/08/22/1219262526777.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    [A few are disgruntled with Turnbull’s style. One MP said he tends to cut people off in the party room and lecture them, more like a chief executive than a political leader.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/libs-look-back-in-anger-in-a-new-moderate-era/2008/11/30/1227979840033.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  39. I agree with TP on cleaning out DOD. Having a politicised defence force is contrary to every principle of westminster governments. They have crossed the line and must know it. Also, I expect there will be many people in defence happy to see these people go as well. Those sort of abusers of power are rarely pleasant to work under either. It shouldn’t be difficult. When I worked in Canberra I recall the draconian secrecy rules I was obliged to read and sign which carried the threat of criminal sanction, not just dismissal. Those who have leaked have surely broken these rules.

  41. The G20 has agreed to something concrete!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/g20-agree-to-us1-trillion-global-cash-injection-20090403-9lbi.html?page=1

    The stimulus is $1 trillion via the IMF; a bit watered down. More importantly they have agreed to list all the tax havens (presumably includes Swiss and Luxembourg) and agree consistent rules on non bank finance and hedge funds, which is a big step forward.

    I could easily imagine this will cause stock markets to go up, but some of the guilty party finance companies might well go down.

  42. [Rudd has had a, I think, a heart valve transplant, he would probably need to have a special diet.]

    A good try but not true.

  45. [ON one level, John-Paul Langbroek is the Liberal candidate from central casting: a professional from a conservative area, handsome and articulate, and with enough of a background in business to give him some credibility.

    But the Gold Coast dentist has a background completely different from that of many of his blue-blood colleagues. He and his sister, Melbourne-based media personality Kate Langbroek, grew up as the only two children of Jehovah’s Witnesses]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25281346-5013945,00.html

  46. Obama saved the G20 deal which was going to fail because of a spat between China and France. But that wasn’t the interesting thing as Obama is well-known to be a class act.

    Continuing the truly bizarre role-swapping of the Right and Left in economic terms, France wanted greater regulation of tax havens like Macau and Hong Kong to be included in the deal. China, the supposedly communist country, wanted a free pass for the tax havens and no regulation.

    So we now have a capitalist country supporting regulation and squashing tax havens, and a communist country wanting deregulation and open slather markets.

    The world really is changing.

  49. [he couldn’t stand the thought of still being in the dentist’s surgery for the rest of his working life]

    He’s lost the dentist’s vote there but might pick up the new demographic of the dentists’ wife. Has there been a successful dentist to politician transfer before? Dentists are normally REALLY boring.

  50. [in the end {Turnbull} will implode because of a fierce temper]

    We keep hearing about his temper but it’s never been on public display to my knowledge. He always seems well under control I don’t find it easy imagining a Turnbull temper tantrum.

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