ACNielsen: 58-42

The Fairfax broadsheets have published an ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters showing federal Labor’s two-party lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 at the previous poll in November. Labor leads on the primary vote 47 per cent to 37 per cent. Also in the poll:

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up four points to a stratospheric 74 per cent, the highest ever recorded by ACNielsen, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is down eight to 43 per cent. Their respective disapproval ratings are 22 per cent (steady) and 47 per cent (up 12 per cent).

• Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred prime minister 69 per cent to 24 per cent, his lead increasing seven points.

• Remarkably, 57 per cent say Kevin Rudd would be “justified in calling an early election to try and break the Senate impasse that has frustrated the passing of some legislation” (although they might think differently if they realised no double dissolution trigger existed, and that any election for the House of Representatives before the middle of next year would throw the two houses’ cycles out of sync).

• Peter Costello is favoured as Liberal leader by 47 per cent against 39 per cent for Turnbull, although Turnbull has closed the gap six points.

• 66 per cent say they oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan, a near identical result to last week’s Newspoll.

In other news:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns. Charts aplenty from Possum, here and here.

• The Victorian Liberals have advertised for federal election candidates in Kooyong, Corangamite and Deakin. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews says “long-time Liberal fundraiser and multi-millionaire Andrew Abercrombie is believed to be the Baillieu faction’s secret weapon candidate” to run in Kooyong against the Josh Frydenberg, who is backed by the Kroger camp and “Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers man”, Senator Michael Ronaldson.

• The Australian reports the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association have joined in a “Moscow-Berlin pact” to seek a “Senate-style system for Victorian upper house preselections”. This would deny rank-and-file members a vote, and circumvent the recent deal between the two unions’ intra-factional rivals. For their part, the latter group are threatening to back separate ballots for each position rather than proportional representation, which would allow them to secure a clean sweep. More from Andrew Landeryou.

• Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports that former Premier Alan Carpenter has backed Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri to replace Jim McGinty as Labor’s candidate in Fremantle. His presumed rival, LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly, now says he is no longer interested. While still denying it publicly, it is almost universally anticipated that McGinty will shortly quit parliament so a by-election can be held in conjunction with the May 16 referendum on daylight saving. Last week the Herald reported that Keith McCorriston, Maritime Union of Australia official and local party branch president, had “also emerged as a contender”. It was also reported that WA Opinion Polls had been canvassing the electorate asking respondents about Tagliaferri and Greens candidate Adele Carles.

• Speaking of which, The West Australian reports daylight saving advocates have been peddling an “online poll of 610 voters conducted last week by independent research company Synovate”, showing 50.5 per cent planning to vote yes against 46.8 per cent for no. Despite the smaller sample of 400, a Westpoll survey published earlier in the month showing 57 per cent for no and 42 per cent for yes might be thought more credible.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have been keeping busy with preselections for the state election due next March. Mark Worley of the Sunday Tasmanian reports three new candidates have been chosen for Franklin: Vanessa Goodwin, a criminologist who narrowly failed to win a seat in 2006; Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton; and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Party leader Will Hodgman will be a fourth, while the fifth will be “left open until later in the year”.

• In Bass, sitting members Peter Gutwein and Sue Napier will be joined by Michael Ferguson, who gained the federal seat for the Liberals in 2004 and lost it in 2007, and David Fry, who filled a vacancy in 2000 but failed to win election in his own right in 2002 or 2006. As in Franklin, a fifth position has been left vacant for the time being.

• Sue Neales of the Mercury reports plans to preselect candidates in Denison have been deferred as the Liberals are “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent”. Michael Hodgman, whose parliamentary career goes back to 1966, is apparently set on another term despite being 70 years old and “suffering ill health”. From Michelle Paine of the Mercury (thanks to Peter Tucker of Tasmanian Politics for scanning this) comes a report that Marti Zucco, Hobart alderman and twice-unsuccessful independent upper house candidate, is also gearing up to nominate despite troubled relations with the party.

• Over the fence, Rebecca White, a 26-year-old electorate officer to federal Denison MP Duncan Kerr, has been confirmed as a starter for Labor in Lyons.

• Anna Bligh says she will discuss fixed terms, possibly of four years, with whoever ends up leading the Liberal National Party. Queensland is the only state which still has terms of three years.

• Graeme Orr writes on the impact of optional preferential voting at the Queensland election, and related matters, at Australian Policy Online.

• Gary Morgan takes aim at Newspoll and Galaxy over their under-estimation of Labor’s vote in Brisbane. To which they might justifiably reply: either shit or get off the pot. When Morgan starts publishing his own state polls, and when these prove more accurate than his rivals, then he can reasonably presume to start giving them advice.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead blowing out to 63-37 from 60-40 last week, and also shows Kevin Rudd’s approval rating at record levels: 21 per cent for “strongly approve”, his best result since this question was first asked last September. Malcolm Turnbull’s overall approval rating is down four points to 28 per cent and his disapproval up five to 48 per cent. In answer to George Megalogenis’s question on Insiders yesterday, 50 per cent say our troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan, and 75 per cent say there should be more armed security at airports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,669 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

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  2. Given that Kevin has had heart problems, it would seem entirely sensible and appropriate that he require, or at least request, special dietary provisions.

  3. #1549 Dio,

    My dentist is so boring, that whilst he picked at my teeth yesterday, he discussed with his assistant what sort of desk would go best in his office. He was close to settling on mahogany. Then something about the dentists’ social day on the weekend. I wished he paid more attention to my teeth, frankly.

    Makes Mr Langbroek sound positively exciting.

  4. 1394 Grog,

    Just the Libs at it again. Yes, this one did happen and it wasn’t a good look but Rudd is still on the G-20 trip and it seems (knock on wood) that the Libs are out of JF rabbits in their bag of tricks so need something new today. This event did NOT happen yesterday so the timing of the release (why now?) is the only “hmm” involved. Funny how they’ve turned up with something to bag us nearly every day of this trip 😉

    GP noted the other evening earlier this week in a rare moment of clarity for him that the Libs need to get some substance (policies) behind their talking or it will all be for naught.

  5. Thx Cuppa, The “good try” comment p**ss’d me off, try for what exactly. If Diog quoted the whole comment I did say that he should (and did) have apologised.

  6. [
    Steve K
    Posted Thursday, April 2, 2009 at 11:35 pm | Permalink
    Never were the flight attendents abused under John Winston Howard

    Maybe – maybe not. One thing’s for sure: he intended to screw their working conditions and those of their families and friends. He was no man of the people as you would portray him.
    ]

    EXACTLY …. the operative word here is (the definition of) abused. JH screwed over so many people any generous definition of the word in question would apply 😉

  9. The comment that is awaiting moderation with a name that Howard used to be called. Sorry William.

    JulieM, If you look at the message that Rudd had in the US and pre G20 was that he wanted a Global effort for stimulus – he got that. He also said he wanted better regulation – he got that, he said he wanted China to have more votes via the IMF – he is getting that discussed by the EU.
    What did the domestic media concentrate on Joel Fitz, the oppositions red’s under the bed, and a tanty he had over a meal. There seems to be a lack of respect for what he did accomplish overseas. The other day on Sky noos they were calling Rudd “Kev 737? a opposition attack sound piece. Yet I can’t remember Sky noos calling Howard the L***g R*dent.

  10. If people are so incompotent that they can’t get a meal right f#$k em. It’s not brain surgery.Crying is a pis$ poor defence

  11. [I don’t find it easy imagining a Turnbull temper tantrum]

    IIt’d be along the lines of:

    “You are incompetent – you should be sacked!”

  12. Heard Steve Lewis (News Ltd.) talking to Price on 2UE. Lewis has been tracking the story re Kev’s hissy fit on the plane.

    Lewis says he is chasing more about Kev’s anger outbursts and will be writing about it.

    Watch out for weekend papers – they obviously need sales and Kev’s success in G20 won’t sell as many papers.

    I think crikey wrote a big piece about Turnbull’s temper tantrums and loss of staff a few months ago but I can’t seem to find it. Will keep checking. It certainly wasn’t complimentary to Turnbull but there’s been no mention in the MSM.

  13. fredn 1532,

    Don’t know what version of this story you read or if in fact, you saw only a picture. The Queen put her arm around Michelle FIRST. Also, while it isn’t a good look in any instance, MO is not a subject of the crown in the same way that Aussies (FOR NOW) are. Probably one of Keating’s bigger gaffes and PJK is my hero (but even heros aren’t perfect)

  14. [If people are so incompotent that they can’t get a meal right f#$k em. It’s not brain surgery.Crying is a pis$ poor defence]

    You’re not serious right? Rudd reacting in a hysterical and over-the-top way just because they didn’t get his meal right is the attendants’ fault?

    I still think the story is completely trivial. I couldn’t care less if Rudd is a nice guy or not.

  16. [YEAH ,,,,,,, radio says HC just called the challenge unconstitutional, payments will flow starting Monday]

    I hope the HC rule the the Prof can pick up the complete costs of the challenge.

  17. for the benefit of those who aren’t energetic enough to read through the whole article
    [
    The court received an Australian Taxation Office memorandum saying it planned to pay 80 per cent of the payments in the four weeks beginning April 6.

    “A further smaller wave of distributions will be made in May/June,” wrote the Second Commissioner of Taxation, Jennie Granger.

    “We have already identified 7.11 million people eligible for the first round of distribution.”

    Of these, 6.7 million taxpayers would receive $900 each because their taxable income in 2007-08 was below $80,000.

    A further 250,000 would receive $600 each, because their income was between $80,000 and $90,000.

    Another 160,000 would receive $250, because their income was between $90,000 and $100,000.

    “These figures will grow as around 1.6 million people file their returns between now and June 30, 2009,” Ms Granger wrote on March 6.

    Those who filed their returns later than June 30 would not be eligible to receive the bonus.
    ]

    the latter round in May/June that they refer to references late returns being submitted and subsequently identified as being eligible

  18. Steve K, the story in the Age doesn’t say about that. If you can get that detail from another net story please put up that info. I would be interested to know myself and I’ll be out most of the day today. Cheers 🙂

  19. Thanks Juliem for the link. Enjoy your bonuses. Hope you will be able to spend some of it to help out in WA.

    Must be fantastic for the people with worrying credit cards, etc. to get some help. It will take a bit of pressure off for them.

  25. #1571 Adam
    [Costs should be awarded against the Nationals since they put Pape up to it.]

    Is that true? The challenge didn’t make sense to me, especially considering that Pape admitted that the payments would simply be made some other way if the challenge succeeded. It didn’t occur to me that it was just political.

    [a lot of Papal bull!]

    *applauds*

  26. [No body except the media gives a damn about Rudd’s temper. This will only help him, just like Scores.]

    I doubt that it will help him. However, I also doubt that it will hurt him. This whole incident will get swamped by the whole G20 thing + the $900 bonus payment.

  27. It must be so frustating for the opposition and their cronies in the MSM- the nasty people voted out the best PM ever and the best government ever despite all their warnings and prostestations, then have the gall to give the new govt and PM record poll ratings.

    It must be even more galling that Rudd comes out and gives a straight up admission and apology- no dodging, no rationalisations.

    Now no one should say that Rudd’s conduct was acceptable, and the fact that some in the media and opposition are salivating over it (much like Scores) says more about their hatred and desparation than anything about the gravity of the incident and its impact on voters.

    As much as I disliked Howard, at least his team has some sense of consistency and coherence. The current rabble lurches from one tabloid/OO/[insert name of other torie outlet] story to another
    MEMO to opposition: for God’s sake, get some policy debate happening

  28. BH, not sure what we are doing with it. I do know, though, that we need to get a new frig at some point 😉 …… in our recent move, the removalists damaged the current edition. Not beyond use, but it doesn’t sit straight (broken foot in one corner). The reimbursement cost from them (based upon what we had – which is no longer made btw) is about 2/3 of the replacement cost for a new frig for what we want so I dare say part of it will go there 😀

  29. [It didn’t occur to me that it was just political]

    I suppose it boils down to what you come up with when you put 2 and 2 together. He’s a Nationals’ guy; I’d be most surprised if there wasn’t a political motive masquerading as concern for constitutional integrity.

  31. [I can’t find the High Court score anywhere.]

    I’m assuming that written reasons will be available some weeks/months in the future. They probably just announced their decision now. Much the same as the Roach case before the 2007 election (prisoners and the right to vote).

  32. Rudd now has to make sure these incidents don’t happen again. He now knows there are people out to get him within certain departments, Defence being the obvious one. He’s smart enough to know that it just has to stop.
    Like others here I really don’t think it will hurt him now but down the track it will become another stick they can hit him over the head with.

  33. [I’d be most surprised if there wasn’t a political motive masquerading as concern for constitutional integrity.]

    Perhaps – although I think Pape is just one of the dwindling numbers of “states-rights” advocates in Australia. If you want to see how they think, check out the Samuel Griffiths Society…

  36. [It was a split decision for the court which is interesting.]

    How many HC decisions are unanimous?

    WorkChoices was a split decision too.

  37. I’m only guessing that the Nats put Pape up to it. 🙂

    Yesterday I said that 10 million Germans were expelled from the eastern territories in 1945-46. I have checked and I find that was a considerable underestimate. The correct number was about 16.7 million – 4.7m from Silesia, 3.5m from the Sudetenland, 2.4m from East Prussia, 1.8m from Pomerania, 1.3m from West Prussia, 0.8m from Romania, 0.6m from eastern Brandenburg, 0.6m from Hungary and 0.5m from Yugoslavia. The Sudetenlanders and those from Romania etc were moved by train, but most of the others people had to leave on foot, with inadequate food and no medical attention, often in winter. The evacuations of East Prussia, Pomerania and Silesia were done under Soviet air and artillery attack. Many refugee ships were sunk in the Baltic. So overall a death toll of 2m is not at all surprising.

  38. [It was a split decision for the court which is interesting.]

    We don’t know the nature of the split. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kiefel or Heydon dissented on the ground of states’ rights. They’re both capital-C Conservatives.

  40. A point made last night that Kevin Rudd has been in the engine room of generating ideas and actions to address the GFC is picked up by Malcolm Farr. Clearly, Rudd is held in high regard by his peers on the international stage. This should be a source of national pride.

    However, what we get is a headline about a “bad hair” moment and a tawdry Opposition ranting about “Manchurian Candidates” and the like. It is times like these you really despair about the reportage of political matters in this country.

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25283440-5000117,00.html

  41. Juliem – daughter & soninlaw (Army) were despatched to Perth in mid 80s. Defence moved them and they had a bit of damage. Claimed insurance for it. Can you not do that?

    Wonder if Turnbull is pitching in with the costs for Pape – as taxpayers we should insist that the Govt’s costs be covered.

  42. No 1588

    Nothing wrong with being a states’ rights supporter. Ian Callinan opposed the Workchoices legislation on such grounds.

  44. No 1591

    [Wonder if Turnbull is pitching in with the costs for Pape – as taxpayers we should insist that the Govt’s costs be covered.]

    It is customary that the parties pay their own costs given the nature of the dispute – i.e. this isn’t a long-running appelate case.

  45. [Well, to be honest, I expected a unanimous decision in this case.]

    Good for you 🙂

    [I am not proud of Kevin Rudd urging world leaders to spend money they don’t have.]

    Unlike yourself, at least Turnbull is unwilling to state that going in to debt during global recessions is a bad thing. He just minces around the edges.

  48. GG, The terrific work that Rudd is doing might be largely lost on the MM but it will feature heavily in the ALP’s election campaign.

  49. GP prefers a rerun of the Great Depression to deficit spending. Pardon us if we disagree. I remember my grandmother telling me that the Depression was a great time, provided you had money, as she did, because the cost of living dropped and domestic staff were *so* easy to find, my dear. I can well imagine. No doubt GP’s family and friends are looking forward to another Depression for just such reasons.

    Meanwhile:

    Coalition trashes its China legacy
    Dennis Shanahan, Political editor | April 03, 2009
    THE Coalition has blown the whole debate over China, it has made itself the story and its outraged indignation can’t hide the fact that it is conducting a reactive political guerilla war without an overall strategy. Until the Coalition realises where it has been and where it is going, the Rudd Government will continue to be popular and get away with murder.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25281575-17301,00.html
    I may have to start reading The Australian again.

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