ACNielsen: 58-42

The Fairfax broadsheets have published an ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters showing federal Labor’s two-party lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 at the previous poll in November. Labor leads on the primary vote 47 per cent to 37 per cent. Also in the poll:

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up four points to a stratospheric 74 per cent, the highest ever recorded by ACNielsen, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is down eight to 43 per cent. Their respective disapproval ratings are 22 per cent (steady) and 47 per cent (up 12 per cent).

• Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred prime minister 69 per cent to 24 per cent, his lead increasing seven points.

• Remarkably, 57 per cent say Kevin Rudd would be “justified in calling an early election to try and break the Senate impasse that has frustrated the passing of some legislation” (although they might think differently if they realised no double dissolution trigger existed, and that any election for the House of Representatives before the middle of next year would throw the two houses’ cycles out of sync).

• Peter Costello is favoured as Liberal leader by 47 per cent against 39 per cent for Turnbull, although Turnbull has closed the gap six points.

• 66 per cent say they oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan, a near identical result to last week’s Newspoll.

In other news:

• Newspoll has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns. Charts aplenty from Possum, here and here.

• The Victorian Liberals have advertised for federal election candidates in Kooyong, Corangamite and Deakin. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews says “long-time Liberal fundraiser and multi-millionaire Andrew Abercrombie is believed to be the Baillieu faction’s secret weapon candidate” to run in Kooyong against the Josh Frydenberg, who is backed by the Kroger camp and “Malcolm Turnbull’s numbers man”, Senator Michael Ronaldson.

• The Australian reports the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association have joined in a “Moscow-Berlin pact” to seek a “Senate-style system for Victorian upper house preselections”. This would deny rank-and-file members a vote, and circumvent the recent deal between the two unions’ intra-factional rivals. For their part, the latter group are threatening to back separate ballots for each position rather than proportional representation, which would allow them to secure a clean sweep. More from Andrew Landeryou.

• Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports that former Premier Alan Carpenter has backed Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri to replace Jim McGinty as Labor’s candidate in Fremantle. His presumed rival, LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly, now says he is no longer interested. While still denying it publicly, it is almost universally anticipated that McGinty will shortly quit parliament so a by-election can be held in conjunction with the May 16 referendum on daylight saving. Last week the Herald reported that Keith McCorriston, Maritime Union of Australia official and local party branch president, had “also emerged as a contender”. It was also reported that WA Opinion Polls had been canvassing the electorate asking respondents about Tagliaferri and Greens candidate Adele Carles.

• Speaking of which, The West Australian reports daylight saving advocates have been peddling an “online poll of 610 voters conducted last week by independent research company Synovate”, showing 50.5 per cent planning to vote yes against 46.8 per cent for no. Despite the smaller sample of 400, a Westpoll survey published earlier in the month showing 57 per cent for no and 42 per cent for yes might be thought more credible.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have been keeping busy with preselections for the state election due next March. Mark Worley of the Sunday Tasmanian reports three new candidates have been chosen for Franklin: Vanessa Goodwin, a criminologist who narrowly failed to win a seat in 2006; Clarence City Council building inspector David Compton; and Huon Valley small business owner Jillian Law. Party leader Will Hodgman will be a fourth, while the fifth will be “left open until later in the year”.

• In Bass, sitting members Peter Gutwein and Sue Napier will be joined by Michael Ferguson, who gained the federal seat for the Liberals in 2004 and lost it in 2007, and David Fry, who filled a vacancy in 2000 but failed to win election in his own right in 2002 or 2006. As in Franklin, a fifth position has been left vacant for the time being.

• Sue Neales of the Mercury reports plans to preselect candidates in Denison have been deferred as the Liberals are “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent”. Michael Hodgman, whose parliamentary career goes back to 1966, is apparently set on another term despite being 70 years old and “suffering ill health”. From Michelle Paine of the Mercury (thanks to Peter Tucker of Tasmanian Politics for scanning this) comes a report that Marti Zucco, Hobart alderman and twice-unsuccessful independent upper house candidate, is also gearing up to nominate despite troubled relations with the party.

• Over the fence, Rebecca White, a 26-year-old electorate officer to federal Denison MP Duncan Kerr, has been confirmed as a starter for Labor in Lyons.

• Anna Bligh says she will discuss fixed terms, possibly of four years, with whoever ends up leading the Liberal National Party. Queensland is the only state which still has terms of three years.

• Graeme Orr writes on the impact of optional preferential voting at the Queensland election, and related matters, at Australian Policy Online.

• Gary Morgan takes aim at Newspoll and Galaxy over their under-estimation of Labor’s vote in Brisbane. To which they might justifiably reply: either shit or get off the pot. When Morgan starts publishing his own state polls, and when these prove more accurate than his rivals, then he can reasonably presume to start giving them advice.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead blowing out to 63-37 from 60-40 last week, and also shows Kevin Rudd’s approval rating at record levels: 21 per cent for “strongly approve”, his best result since this question was first asked last September. Malcolm Turnbull’s overall approval rating is down four points to 28 per cent and his disapproval up five to 48 per cent. In answer to George Megalogenis’s question on Insiders yesterday, 50 per cent say our troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan, and 75 per cent say there should be more armed security at airports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,669 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

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  1. Diogenes @ 90,

    “The OO is hammering the Yellow Peril as hard as they can”.

    You reckon the owner’s missus would get a better run. Is this all a Rupert domestic that has got out of contrrol?

  2. [SENATOR GEORGE BRANDIS: Kevin Rudd is starting to look increasingly like the Manchurian candidate. Lateline 20/3/2008.]

    This is the first I can find. Brandis is such a “nice” person. 😉

  4. GG

    Great point. I haven’t read Murdoch in China but I think they turned their noses up at him. Perhaps he has stopped trying to break into China but somehow I doubt it.

    [FOR more than 10 years, China’s potential mesmerised Rupert Murdoch. He poured more than $2 billion into the country and lost at least half of it. He spent lavishly courting the communist mandarins, and cut ethical corners. He even took a young Chinese wife, who bore him two daughters and installed a Mandarin-speaking nanny so they would grow up bicultural.

    And where did it all get him? Not far, according to Bruce Dover, who served the Murdoch empire in Asia as director of business development when China was Murdoch’s big global play. “He was literally on the telephone every other day seeking news of progress,” Dover writes in his book, Rupert’s Adventures In China, to be published next week.]

    Murdoch’s China dream shattered
    http://business.smh.com.au/business/murdochs-china-dream-shattered-20080125-1o77.html

  5. Just watched Channel 10 News!
    People interviewed think Rudd is doing a good job, is a statesman, represents Australia in the international community. One woman mentioned the stimulus package/bonus payments.
    Turnball surely won’t last much longer, but will Smirky step up to the plate?

  6. REPORTER: You called the Prime Minister of Australia the Manchurian Candidate.
    HAMMOCK DWELLER: Yes I did.
    REPORTER: Are you implying that the PM is a brainwashed assasin, who kills people on behalf of the communist party?
    HAMMOCK DWELLER: No, its what George said. He’s so clever with lines – remember the rode… oops lets not go there, Goodnight. 😉

  7. [There are 450,000 Australians with Chinese background.]

    Diog, this is the really hilarious bit of the yellow peril bash by the Libs. The large majority of the 450K you quoted are actually right wingers and ardent supporters of the Libs. They were mainly “refugees”, directly or indirectly, of the mainland regime in beijing. they dont like the Beijing regime, but love its money, but they will NOT and NEVER stand for China to weaken and humiliated again.

    When Hanson came on and howie didn’t do a thing, the Chinese Libs went out and formed the Unity Party and had one of its member elected in the NSW Upper House. another prominent Unity member was the lawyer and articulate Jason Lee who is now living and working in Beijing.

    [Is this all a Rupert domestic that has got out of control?]

    GG, you mean THAT Chinese born wife of Rupert.

  9. Has anyone heard anything about the Ergas Tax review?

    [In conducting the Review, Professor Ergas will consult widely, including through the release of public discussion papers and a tax reform conference. The Review will be completed by the end of 2008.]

    Or was it all to hard?

  10. Finns,

    I just substitute Murdoch whenever this racist rubbish (Manchurian Candidate, Yellow Peril) appears. e.g. substiute Murdoch for Labor in Diogs 90.

    Much more entertaining and probably closer to the truth.

  11. Latest Essential Research Poll. Rudd 71% popularity, 23% (?) disapprove.. Turnbull well and truly in negative territory. Something like 28% approve and 45% (?) disapprove.

  12. I noticed Joe Hockey had a soft profile in one of the glossy weekend mags.

    I wonder who’s next on the Liberal tumbrill?

  14. On election night wasn’t there a comment from a Lib about Bennelong along the lines of “those effin Chinese”? The bad losers are still bitter I reckon

  15. Mesmeralda isn’t happy unless she has something about which to display her feigned indignation.
    As for her leader he is speaking more and more in the annoying tone of “I’m talking down at you”.
    They must be slow learners.

  16. [Nelson was turfed with disapproval ratings of 44%]

    I think Nelson thought stuff it, I’m rooted, Malcolm wants the job so I will bring on a spill. It was more a political suicide rather than being turfed.

    Nelson chose the time of his demise, Turnbull will not have this luxury.

  17. [Today’s Essential Report comes in with primaries running 53 (up 3)/ 31 (down 3) to Labor, washing into a two party preferred of a staggering 63/37 – ALP up 3 since last week. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 2112, giving us an MoE of 2.1%]

    From Possum. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/

  18. Malcolm must be crying in his beer, most people would kill for 2pp of 63/37 come election time 😉 ……

    didn’t I see something earlier today with more speculation on early elections? 😉 …..

  19. Poss – Yellow Peril

    “Unless the female population of Australia transformed overnight in secret to become a rampaging mass of Margaret Thatcher clones, this latest political tactic will be counterproductive. Polling suggests that women voters not only see through political games more than men, but are more likely to revolt against such games”
    ————–
    With Turnbull, Hockey and Bishop, no wonder the women hate them. One sits on his high horse and looks down at the peasants, one pulls on his forelock and can be bought by any leader of the opposition – slut, the eyes – freak -ee, plus she plagiarizes and i’m pretty sure isn’t able to relate to the average aussie woman.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/03/30/yellow-peril/comment-page-1/#comment-12523

  20. Hockey’s gotta be next – his Sunrise persona will fool some for a couple days.

    Turnbull has no one else to blame but himself – he challenged far too early – all this could have been suffered by Nelson.

    But he has little tactical nous.

  21. [didn’t I see something earlier today with more speculation on early elections?]

    It’s not going to happen. No trigger exists for a DD and having an early ‘House only’ election would result in there either needing to be an additional early election to keep the House/Senate cycles in synch or a Senate only election.

  22. 63/37 is hugely impossible at the the next election, but it puts the frighteners up Liberal backbenchers on small margins.

    It will dawn on them that the “one term” Rudd Govt. is not going to happen and that they are in for a long period of opposition. Turnbull will be blamed.

  23. Grog, The Australian banged the leadership speculation drum while Nelson was leader – whose gonna be leader? Now their doing the same thing to Turnbull.

    I would think that the Liberals wouldn’t want anymore favours done for them by The Australian. Me – they can keep up the bad work 🙂

  25. ltep,

    Is that a “please” don’t let it happen?

    However, agree with your analysis.

    When Hawke peaked at 75% popularity in April 1984, they held an election later that year that Labor only just won.

    It’s nice to be popular. But, even better to be in Government.

  27. First SA, NSW yesterday and Qld today.

    [QUEENSLAND is set to adopt laws based on South Australian legislation banning membership of outlaw motorcycle gangs.

    Queensland cabinet today approved the preparation of new laws giving police the power to apply to the Supreme Court for an order banning members identified in an outlaw motorcycle gang from associating with each other.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25263704-5006301,00.html

  28. [When Hawke peaked at 75% popularity in April 1984, they held an election later that year that Labor only just won. ]

    Can’t see Rudd making the mistake after the WA and Qld examples

  29. [Oh, that’s right, it’s better to have no ETS than one that comes up short of what is required at the moment. Better to do nothing than something. It’s our way or no way at all. I think I get the picture.]

    Again, I don’t see why I have to support either Labor ETS’ or nothing. I’m not a parliamentarian, I’m not in any kind of position to vote for or against any legislation. I don’t have to take sides and defend one position to the death as you’re doing.

  30. [Has anyone heard anything about the Ergas Tax review?]

    Ergas had an opinion piece in The Australia today pretty much just bagging every Labor policy he could get his hands on.

  32. The Govt has not made any attempt to get a DD trigger. Letting legislation lapse rather than reintroducing it.

    I think the Govt is hoping the Financial Swindle will be improving in 2010 and they will be seen as the better economic managers. Unemployment is their only problem.

  34. It’s messy, but I think I have just about sorted it all out, based on consensus or majority comments on this blog.

    It is OK to be

    (1) rationally OO-ophobic
    (2) rationally Turnbullophobic
    (3) rationally GlobalWarmingophobic
    (4) rationally badgangmemberophobic
    (5) rationally Boltophobic
    (6) rationally WorkChoiceophobic
    (7) rationally RuddsdudfivepercentETSophobic.

    It is not OK to be:

    (1) irrationally Islamophobic
    (2) irrationally sinophobic
    (3) irrationally USophobic
    (4) rationally sportophobic.

  36. Labor suffers from China syndrome

    -isn’t it the Libs who are going into meltdown… and whose poll figures are sinking toward the centre of the earth?

  37. [Polling suggests that women voters not only see through political games more than men, but are more likely to revolt against such game]

    eg my missus.

    😀 love her madly

  39. Ooooh apparently Rudd asked to be moved from sitting next to the Chinese ambassador to the UK.

    Cue the Opposition: Rudd hates China.

  42. Boerwar,

    [
    (4) rationally sportophobic.
    ]

    This is alright if you moderate your phobia enough to keep William happy and don’t go into the n-th detail on the cricket scores as they are available on cric info and William isn’t interested in channeling cric info 😀 …..

    I know Vera is for the Bunnies, everyone knows I’m for North Melbourne, etc. etc.

    It always helps heaps if you can bring the sports around in some fashion back to politics as in MT is in more trouble atm than Terry Wallace 😀

  43. [It always helps heaps if you can bring the sports around in some fashion back to politics as in MT is in more trouble atm than Terry Wallace]

    Well Belinda Cornes, wife of former Adelaide Crows Graeme was a major discussion point during the last federal election 🙂

  44. Frank, great song. not too sure if the missus knows anything about the Doors. although she’s shown me few doors. :mrgreen:

  46. Lenin’s article at Wikipedia has deteriorated since Adam left – just in the Red Terror section, the communists have to mention that all historians quoted are “anti-communist” or “Lenin critics”

  47. 143 [wife of former Adelaide Crows Graeme was a major discussion point during the last federal election]

    What on earth would possess someone to name their son Adelaide Crows Graeme?

  48. [I’m rationally Islamophobic, partly as a subset of being rationally religiophobic, and partly as a result of the fact that Islam says I should be killed.]

    Bit you didn’t mention that on SBS last night though 🙂 Though I think you discussed Consorting 🙂

  50. [What on earth would possess someone to name their son Adelaide Crows Graeme?]

    Forgot to add the word Coach after Adelaide Crows 🙂

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