ACNielsen: 58-42

1,669 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

1. I was listening to Neil Mitchell for a laugh this morning. He is predicting Rudd will go to an early election later this year. To back up this prediction he spoke to Alison Carabine (Canberra journalist) who gave possible reasons for an early election. Mitchell, in concluding the interview, asked her to guess the date of this early election. Her reply was, “I still think it will be next year.” Oh dear.

2. [But I can feel for Labor especially, as coal workers typically vote Labor.]

   You think Labor would look after them then, not bury its head in the sand and pretend that it’s sustainable to keep on mining and burning coal forever.

3. [You think Labor would look after them then, not bury its head in the sand and pretend that it’s sustainable to keep on mining and burning coal forever.]

   Voters think short term, which is why so does the government.

4. Islamophobia is a term invented and used by people who can’t accept criticism of Islam.

   Similarly, the term christians use against people who critisise christianity is “Darwinist”.

5. [I heard that there was another bikie shooting today, the brother of one of the bikies assualted at the airport.]
   He is the brother of the bloke who was beaten to death at Sydney airport

6. Another thing I like about Rudd is that when OS he bunks down at the ambassadors place or stays with mates, no flash thousands of $s a night hotels for him (unlike others I could mention)
   [Now British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and his weekend house guest Kevin Rudd are saying the meeting is not about the details of further stimulus.
   Mr Rudd spent the weekend at Mr Miliband’s house ahead of his engagements in London this week.]
   Also no flash restaurants it seems 🙂
   [After their BBC appearance, Mr Miliband made sure his Australian guest kept his energy up.

   “I’ve arranged for us to be given a bacon sandwich to take with us,” he said.

   “Jolly good,” replied Mr Rudd.

   “Two bacon sangers, although probably the Prime Minister will have two himself, so three bacon sandwiches,” Mr Miliband said.]
   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/30/2529427.htm

7. Kit 38

   Your analysis leaves out the compensation and transitional arrangements in the Rudd Emission Trading Scam which means that, since the compensation will come from tax revenue, we are all paying for it, just as Pearse said. He pointed out the source of payments was indirect, but he is correct in hsis definition of the end result: we pay and they receive compensation, while the only changes to emissions will be small and again paid for by us, through higher electricity charges.

   The current ETS is so obviously loaded in big business’s favour at the expense of taxpayers (and workers who aren’t in the coal industry), that I sometimes have to remind myself it actually came from a Labor government.

8. AIC on that Sheehan article – you are kidding?

   That piece was so full of contradiction it ended up arguing against it’s opening premise – and this was a call for a scholarly approach? What a joke – your Islamophobia has put the stupid blinkers on you again Adam

9. bob 1234

   You raise a good point about what looking after coal workers realy means. I had assumed that the ETS was about putting coal industry jobs ahead of the rest of the community. But its worse than that. Its an attempt to deny reality and say “don’t worry you won’t have to change what you do”. It reminds me a lot of the pandering to the US car industry by politicians from Michigan adn other US car states. They let GM, Chrysler and Ford go on building SUVs right up to the point where the market has collapsed, and now they are stuck. If they had been forced to do some meaningful reform sooner their jobs might be more salvageable.

   Rather than kid ourselves that clean coal shows any sign of working, lets plan for the gradual winding down of the coal and aluminium indsutry in Australia now, starting with brown coal in Victoria. Retraining and investment in replacement industries is the only long term solution.

10. [Rather than kid ourselves that clean coal shows any sign of working, lets plan for the gradual winding down of the coal and aluminium indsutry in Australia now, starting with brown coal in Victoria. Retraining and investment in replacement industries is the only long term solution.]

    And losing coal worker votes in the process. Voters don’t think long term unfortunately, and if voters don’t, government doesn’t.

11. [He is the brother of the bloke who was beaten to death at Sydney airport]

    Popular family. The parents must be doing it tough.

12. [And losing coal worker votes in the process. Voters don’t think long term unfortunately, and if voters don’t, government doesn’t.]

    That’s true. But we should expect more from governments… that is that they should do what is in the national interest rather than in their own interests. Of course there needs to be an acknowledgement of political considerations but it’s only one part of the equation when it comes to assessing the merits of a policy. I still remain unconvinced as far as the CPRS goes.

13. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25260078-33435,00.html

    [Fitzgibbon leak could have come from ALP]

    lol. I wish it was someone other than Milne.

14. [Fitzgibbon leak could have come from ALP]

    Haven’t we already discussed this last week?

15. This is a new article, Swing Lowe.

16. With regards to action on climate change, it is a good example of where democracy is going to have a lot of trouble. See the book described at
    http://www.dea.org.au/node/219

    There are going to be a whole host of decisions which are going to adversely affect parts of the population more than others. And promises of compensation do not generally go down well to the voters who are to lose: eg, look at the Tasmanian timber workers in 2004.

    Instead, even the biggest and most iconic of industries have to listen to the market when it turns against them. Eg, General Motors.

    This is why it is better to get an ETS in place, even if some political mechanisms and big lobby groups need the oil of taxpayer funds to make the process smoother.

    Then, as the targets tighten quickly over the next few decades it is the market which will tell those coal miners and their workers who are still there that it is time to move on. Hopefully the government of the day will be happy to retrain.

    I can not see any realistic way that Australian democracy can work to make an explicit decision to close down coal mines in any other way.

17. kat

    Mesma = Mesmerelda= julie bishop

    she of the piercing stare

18. Crikey editorial has got the OO’s polls sized up well –

    “Running the Newspoll numbers acts as a fortnightly reinforcement of the Australian’s sometimes dubious claim to agenda-setting credibility. These numbers, proprietory News Limited content that they are, are not above being subjected to the routine maniuplations that The Australian is liable to impose on any given set of facts that may or may not suit the overiding imperitive of its rampant ideological agenda.

    The balance brought by Nielsen, an independent reality check, has always been an important facet of the Australian psephological discussion. But polls of this type are very expensive. It would be a pity if through let’s say, financial strtingency, Fairfax was no longer able to provide this valuable voice. Without wanting to push the boat too far from the shore, it would do the health of our democracy no favors.”

    Let’s hope Fairfax has enough in the kitty to keep on with the Nielsen polls.

19. [This is a new article, Swing Lowe.]

    True – but isn’t this Milne recycling his article from last week? Or was it only Landeryou suggesting the leak came from the NSW right?

20. [The balance brought by Nielsen, an independent reality check, has always been an important facet of the Australian psephological discussion.]
    But aren’t Newspoll and Nielsen saying basically the same thing? The Government has more public support now than at the last election by about 4%. Kevin Rudd’s overwhelming popularity hasn’t really changed much since December, 2006.

    I don’t understand how Neilsen can be an “independent reality check” when it has basically just reinforced what Newspoll keeps saying each fortnight.

21. Heaven forbid that a government should take into account their political survival, afterall it would only mean allowing a party of climate change sceptics and total deniers to run the show. No problem there.

22. I don’t think Milne or Landeryou had an article on the topic last week.

23. [it would only mean allowing a party of climate change sceptics and total deniers to run the show. No problem there.]
    And remember, the Liberal carbon trading policy at the last election was to give ALL export intensive industries 100% free permits. At least the Government scheme gives them either 90% or 60% free permits at the start, with that rate decreasing automatically by 1.3% per year, and with the possibility that free permits will be completely revoked if other countries include similar industries in their schemes.

    I can’t understand how ANYONE sees ‘100% free permits indefinitely’ as a better system than what the Government has proposed.

24. [I can’t understand how ANYONE sees ‘100% free permits indefinitely’ as a better system than what the Government has proposed.]

    I don’t see why you’re framing the argument in terms of the Labor’s broken ETS or the Liberals broken ETS.

25. Oh, that’s right, it’s better to have no ETS than one that comes up short of what is required at the moment. Better to do nothing than something. It’s our way or no way at all. I think I get the picture.
    What countries at the moment are ‘doing what is needed’?

26. Gary

    Let’s see what Obama etc come up with at the meeting at the end of April. We’ll know the lie of the land better then.

27. re #51

    c’mon Rudd needs at least a year and a half to win over those rusted on lib supporters!

28. [Oh, that’s right, it’s better to have no ETS than one that comes up short of what is required at the moment. Better to do nothing than something. It’s our way or no way at all. I think I get the picture.]

    Does Oz want a repeat of 2004 with the CFMEU swinging their support behind Turnbull, or Heaven Forbid Costello ?

29. This online poll is always very ugly. It’s obviously highly biased but quite funny all the same. I wonder what the real poll is.

    [Do you support the Rudd Government’s plan to trial a filter of internet content?

    Yes 6% (321 votes)
    No 93% (4556 votes)
    Total of 4877 votes]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25262908-5006301,00.html

30. Showson @ 70, I think Crikey’s point was more about the OO’s bizarre interpretations of the Newspoll figures than about the figures themselves.

31. Conroy’s internet censorship feeds in very nicely with the meme of Comrade Rudd turning us into a province of China, according to my friends from the Right.

32. [Conroy’s internet censorship feeds in very nicely with the meme of Comrade Rudd turning us into a province of China, according to my friends from the Right.]

    But their argument is blunted somewhat when it is pointed out that Alston was pushing EXACTLY the same thing when Howie was in Govt 🙂

33. Frank

    How come we never heard much about Alston’s version? Was it floated and shot down or was the technology not ready?

34. Sorry a bit late but Socrates at 57.

    You are right in the sense that if we charge for permits and don’t compensate then that money will go into consolidated revenue – so indirectly taxpayers are losing. But the ETS is and should be revenue neutral.

    It is pro business, I agree, but without them on board we will never reduce emissions. yes we need to reduce our emission drastically, but killing the current energy sector in the process would be counterproductive – we are not ready.

    Remember a well-functioning global ETS will slowly make coal and emission intensive industries unviable, whatever the political colour of governments. It locks in, simply via a great business case, low emissions.

    It also allows for the transfer of low emission technologies to the developing world without the need for government directive or pro-active (and usually weak) global treaties.

    So, let’s not fret about the compensation, let’s fret about the real issue. At Copenhagen the world has to commit to a strong target. And this first means creating public support for an ETS in Australia. That in turn will allow the government to offer the world 15%, and if we really push even more.

    But if we don’t compensate the polluters now, they will either shut down or leave Australia. Or, even more realistically, they will never permit the government to reduce emissions at all. I can assure you that without a business sensitive emission reduction strategy in Australia, the full force of the coal, oil and manufacturing industries will be marshalled against any emission reductions.

    If Australia can prove that an accord can be reached between government and business to reduce emissions significantly (albeit steadily) then there is hope. Without it …

35. [How come we never heard much about Alston’s version? Was it floated and shot down or was the technology not ready?]

    Basically it didn’t eventuate due to the same conclusions being made now during the trials.

    https://www.fitug.de/news/newsticker/old/1999/newsticker210499222043.html

36. Frank

    I notice that Alston used the “either you support this legislation or you are a paedophile supporter” argument. It will be interesting to see if Conroy throws that one back in the Liberal’s faces if they threaten to block it.

37. Isn’t this dangerously shaky ground? 😀 …..

    [
    Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has refused to comment on the latest opinion poll, which shows his dissatisfaction rating is higher than his approval rating.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/30/2530043.htm
    ]

38. [The third point is that there’s now an urgent need for an open and wide-ranging discussion about Australia’s relationship with China, a topic about which political attitudes seem entirely schizophrenic. Until recently, both parties talked up our links to the Chinese powerhouse as the best chance of staving off the GFC. Over the last week, however, China’s become the Brian Burke of nations, a country that tars you just by association.

    In the twenty-first century, China represents the only credible economic and military challenge to American hegemony. The infamous Project for a New American Century made that clear in the late nineties and the neoconservative agenda for the Middle East was always, at least in part, about firing a shot across Chinese bows.

    Naturally, the “visiting fellows” who prospered so splendidly from the “War on Terror” hysteria would want to gin up anxiety over China as the leader of a New Axis of Scary. But where, for instance, Malcolm Turnbull stand on the notion of China as looming threat? Will he come out and say what he really thinks?

    Behind this debate — and not very far behind it — lurks the spectre of the Yellow Peril. The SMH today, for instance, casually refers to Helen Liu as a “Chinese businesswoman”. Actually, she’s nothing of the sort — she’s an Australian citizen. A trivial subediting error? Perhaps, but it reflects the underlying assumption permeating throughout this whole business — that people of Chinese origin remain innately foreign, no matter what their passports say. Have a look at the comments threads beneath the online coverage of the Fitzgerald scandal, where the discussion slips seamlessly from Beijing’s foreign policy to the innate clannishness of Orientals.

    Finally, in the shameful treatment of Ms Liu, we can see the cumulative damage done over the last decade to the most basic of judicial norms. If Helen Liu has committed a crime, then she should be charged. Until that happens, she should be presumed as innocent as anyone else. ]

    From today’s Crikey. I might just add that shameful headline on Skynews yesterday: “Spy Link Down Played”. Spy link? what spy link. Even today, or as now, Skynews has been trumpeting: “Does China have too much influence in Australia?”. Julie Bishop is being interviewed on Skynews right now. She is basically calling Rudd as the Manchurian’s candidate. This is our Shadow FM? God help us.

    Oh another thing, they dont even know how to pronounce her name properly. I have heard from Lu, Lew, Lo, Bu

39. [Behind this debate — and not very far behind it — lurks the spectre of the Yellow Peril. The SMH today, for instance, casually refers to Helen Liu as a “Chinese businesswoman”. Actually, she’s nothing of the sort — she’s an Australian citizen. A trivial subediting error? Perhaps, but it reflects the underlying assumption permeating throughout this whole business — that people of Chinese origin remain innately foreign, no matter what their passports say. Have a look at the comments threads beneath the online coverage of the Fitzgerald scandal, where the discussion slips seamlessly from Beijing’s foreign policy to the innate clannishness of Orientals.]

    It was the same with former WA Labor Minister John D’Orazio being referred to as “The Godfather” and that ALL Italo-Australians have mafia links etc This was especially prevalent when he was caught by the CCC inadvertently conversing with the now jailed Panel Beater Pasquale Mimniti who had suggested he contact a disgraced former Italo-Australian Police Officer, also jailed to get D’Orazio’s traffic fine withdrawn. Of Course D’Orazio didn’t follow this advice and was subsequently cleared.

    But you do get my drift 🙂

40. Finns

    The OO is hammering the Yellow Peril as hard as they can. They have a poll “Is the Government too sympathetic towards China?” with 61% of 2500 saying yes. They also have an op-ed feature called “Labor’s China love-in”. I won’t even bother to link it, it would stink up the joint.

41. Oh dear. When asked on PM Agenda whether she’d call Kevin Rudd a Manchurian candidate Julie Bishop said she wouldn’t be the first to call him that.

42. [The OO is hammering the Yellow Peril as hard as they can. They have a poll “Is the Government too sympathetic towards China?” with 61% of 2500 saying yes. They also have an op-ed feature called “Labor’s China love-in”. I won’t even bother to link it, it would stink up the joint.]

    I’m waiting for prominent Perth Lawyer and Socialite Patti Chong to put in her 2 cents worth 🙂

43. Isn’t Julie Bishop doing a “comprehensive review” of Liberal policies? The Libs need to get their primary vote higher than Labor. They can only do it with policies.

    The hammock dwellers look like being in opposition for a very long time.

44. [Oh dear. When asked on PM Agenda whether she’d call Kevin Rudd a Manchurian candidate Julie Bishop said she wouldn’t be the first to call him that.]

    Yeah, didn’t Turnbull do it already? Validation from your own leader… what a defence

45. There are 450,000 Australians with Chinese background. Given that many would be soft Liberal supporters, the Liberals would need a lot of dog-whistling votes to make up for the votes they will lose in the Chinese community. I think they’ve stuffed up yet again.

46. [Isn’t Julie Bishop doing a “comprehensive review” of Liberal policies? The Libs need to get their primary vote higher than Labor. They can only do it with policies.]

    And I wonder how many Chinese Australians vote in her electorate of Curtin ? 🙂 Or are indeed donors ?

    Talk about biting the hand that feeds.

47. That’s lawyer-lite, Frank

48. Diog, the one that really disappointed me has been Malcolm Turnbull. i have always thought that he would be beyond this kind of politiking. Being a businessman/merchant banker etc that has had extensive business contacts in Asia. But then, i am the stupid one as he is just another politician. and that comment by Julie Bishop is beyond belief.

    [When asked on PM Agenda whether she’d call Kevin Rudd a Manchurian candidate Julie Bishop said she wouldn’t be the first to call him that.]

49. Finns

    I googled “Kevin Rudd” and “Manchurian Candidate”. There were 1790 hits. 🙁

50. hoping this poll puts an end to the drivel about fitzgibbon. to hear the liberal party, which brought us, amongst other things, children overboard, AWB, WMDs, Haneef, Hicks etc etc to talk about a minister being sacking for not declaring 2002 and 2005 trips is hysterical.

    and can someone tell mesmeralda that the polls have been like this since the end of 2006, so the stimulus has nothing to do with it

    meanwhile, how long will turnbull last…and who’s next?? hockey???

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