Morgan: 61.5-38.5

The latest Morgan survey combines two weekends of face-to-face polling, and it confirms the message elsewhere that Labor has opened up a lead to rival its honeymoon period early last year. Labor’s primary vote is up 2.5 per cent on the last survey to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition is down 3.5 per cent to 33 per cent: its worst result since May 2008, and 1.5 per cent below the previous worst result on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The two-party split of 61.5-38.5 compares with 59.5-40.5 last time. Furthermore:

• Talk of Attorney-General Robert McClelland abandoning parliament for a diplomatic post had escaped my notice, but the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader has reported on the implications for his seat of Barton should it come to pass:

The reports said he would make room for NSW Senator Mark Arbib who wants to be a minister in the Rudd cabinet and had set his sights on Mr McClelland’s seat. If Mr McClelland was “white-anted” he would take a diplomatic post and Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane would be called in as a potential powerbroker to help Senator Arbib take Barton in any preselection fightthat might arise for the next federal election.

The story is denied by all concerned.

• Paul Austin of The Age gets a bit over-excited about the Victorian Electoral Commission’s ruling on independent candidate Les Twentyman’s complaint of misleading electoral material during last year’s Kororoit by-election campaign. Twentyman argued that a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals” constituted material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote” under the meaning of section 84 of the Electoral Act, an offence potentially punishable by six months’ imprisonment. Those familiar with complaints of this kind will not be surprised to learn that it was rejected, on the grounds that the section is narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong candidate. The VEC’s report on the by-election states that “legal opinion is that the pamphlet is misleading in its suggestion of an affiliation or agreement between Mr Twentyman and the Liberal Party”, but since this is neither here nor there as far as the Electoral Act is concerned, I can’t help wondering if it’s the commission’s place to say so.

• The Derwent Valley Gazette reports that the Tasmanian Liberals have named six candidate for Lyons at next year’s state election: incumbent Rene Hidding, “Brighton councillor Leigh Gray, vascular surgeon Philip Lamont, transport operator Geoff Page, business consultant Jim Playsted and Meander Valley Mayor Mark Shelton”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,210 comments on “Morgan: 61.5-38.5”

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  3. No 45

    Costello’s performance was fine. Lindsay Tanner also performed well – much better than Swan. Tanner should be Treasuer, as I have always said.

  5. Interesting report from ABC

    “Suburbs in Melbourne’s north and north-east have reportedly been shaken by an earthquake.

    Reports to ABC News Online say the suburbs of Frankston, Knoxfield, Lang Lang, Caulfield North and Yarra Junction have felt tremors”

    Yep, all those areas being to the south and east of Melbourne, not north.

  7. GG

    I’m not chastising you. I’m just disappointed the record for good behaviour had to end eventually. And it just had to be religion didn’t it. I have a mental list of the most controversial topics here.

    1. Becoming a Republic
    2. Nuclear power
    3. The Dismissal (can’t you people get over that!! It was 34 years ago)
    4. Palestine vs Israel
    5. Questions of religious tolerance

    Each one is like lobbing a hand grenade into William’s hands.

  8. Tom
    Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    “It is payback time for all of the Howard sycophants that didn’t have the guts to stand up to Howard even when it became apparent that they would lose with him at the helm.”

    And now they don”t have the guts to stand up to Costello; the punishment does fit the crime.

  9. [Not as socially conservative as Rudd.]
    They are better than Howard, or any other Liberal government that would always be beholden to its religious nutcase faction.

    I see two major problems with the current Governmetn’s social policies, it won’t support gay marriage or civil unions. But that will change in 10 years time as it is strongly supported by voters under the age of 35.

    And of course… the internet filter which seems to be an attempt to placate social conservatives.

  10. 90 Diogenes – I agree with you. However Mark Riley on channel 7 in his political summary of the days events decided to quote some report suggesting our downturn will match that of the US. No contrary view put of course. Where do they find these people?

  11. [I see two major problems with the current Governmetn’s social policies, it won’t support gay marriage or civil unions.]

    Tell me about it…

  13. Not to mention the Rudd government won’t fix the shortcomings of their gay superannuation legislation that disadvantages older gay couples that was created by the legislation.

  14. First, Peter Costello
    Second, the bushfires,
    Now, the earthquake,
    Then, seven years of drought, followed by
    seven years of deluge,
    Then, swarms of locust
    Then, the mice plague,

    Victoria, Victoria, beautiful one day, total disaster the next.

  17. No 109

    [And of course… the internet filter which seems to be an attempt to placate social conservatives.]

    Even social conservatives that I know are opposed to the filter. It sounds more like a plaything to appease Senator Fielding.

  19. [the Rudd government won’t fix the shortcomings of their gay superannuation legislation that disadvantages older gay couples that was created by the legislation.]

    What are these shortcomings and how do you know the Rudd government won’t fix them?

  23. Did anyone check to see if the epicenter was in Higgins……..Cossie might of hurt himself falling out of the hammock

  27. bob1234, given what has happened during the Howard years with Cornelia Rau, children overboard et. al (general immigration issues across the board) I would argue that Rudd looks quite peachy in comparison 😉 ….. You have to pick and chose your battles and can’t win them all. Personally, I’m miffed that he isn’t pushing in a strong way on the Republic. That doesn’t mean I’m unhappy with things though in general if I dislike one or more policy positions. And purely on being socially conservative, I am not. I support gay marraige, the Republic and other such leftish type causes. Yet, I am still solidly in the Labor camp. Get behind the man that is electable 😉 (and remember, too, Rudd is from QLD. I’m not sure who is more conservative, native QLD’rs or native WA’rs, but I suspect that they could each give the other a run for their money). Now off to the footy [on delay in Perth :(] and channel switch with the cricket. Sorry, William, you asked for no ball by ball commentary so I’m not giving any but I don’t recall you completely disallowed any mention of sporting words 😀

  28. [The Dismissal (can’t you people get over that!! It was 34 years ago)]

    Howard losing his seat was probably the last grain to balance the scales, (even though Howard was not a player in those times).

    The trashing of the libs economic credibility and a realisation of what Gough actually accomplished in his short time also goes a long way.

    But when Gough is elected first El Presidente, then all will be at peace and in balance.

  31. Shows On,

    You like making fun of people with disabilities?

    You will decide who blogs and the style in which they blog?

    Lovely.

  33. [I am not. I support gay marraige, the Republic and other such leftish type causes. ]
    I don’t think supporting gay marriage is left wing. It just counts as not discriminating against people because of their sexuality. Like how it is illegal to do so under the anti-discrimination act. I don’t think not discriminating against age, or gender, or hair colour, or religion, or drink preference is a left wing thing, it is just a basic aspect of accepting someone as a person.

    Supporting a republic isn’t left wing either, it is just common sense. 😀

  36. [You will decide who blogs and the style in which they blog?]
    LOL! 😀 This is hilarious coming from someone who repeatedly attacked me for cutting and pasting!

  38. The US Geological Survey said the earthquake registered 4.7 on the Richter scale, and that the epicentre was about 7 kms west of Korumburra.

  45. [Was Hockey 7km west of Korumburra tonight?]
    Careful, G.G. and Glen will attack you for making fun of someone with a disability.

  46. [OK GG, you want to play dirty. take this:]
    If only filmmakers still shot films in Todd-AO 70mm.

    Those were the days…

  47. Didn’t feel the earthquake at all here.
    AIC, in Australia, a deluge of Peter Costello on the air waves might have to suffice. I’m sure Turnbull thinks so.

  48. After the 1998 election, Mark Latham went to the back bench because his education policy was re-written by Beazley’s office. He then wrote an interesting book and spoke out against both Liberal and Labor policies.

    It seems that Costello is basically doing a Latham.

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