Morgan: 61.5-38.5

The latest Morgan survey combines two weekends of face-to-face polling, and it confirms the message elsewhere that Labor has opened up a lead to rival its honeymoon period early last year. Labor’s primary vote is up 2.5 per cent on the last survey to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition is down 3.5 per cent to 33 per cent: its worst result since May 2008, and 1.5 per cent below the previous worst result on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The two-party split of 61.5-38.5 compares with 59.5-40.5 last time. Furthermore:

• Talk of Attorney-General Robert McClelland abandoning parliament for a diplomatic post had escaped my notice, but the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader has reported on the implications for his seat of Barton should it come to pass:

The reports said he would make room for NSW Senator Mark Arbib who wants to be a minister in the Rudd cabinet and had set his sights on Mr McClelland’s seat. If Mr McClelland was “white-anted” he would take a diplomatic post and Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane would be called in as a potential powerbroker to help Senator Arbib take Barton in any preselection fightthat might arise for the next federal election.

The story is denied by all concerned.

Paul Austin of The Age gets a bit over-excited about the Victorian Electoral Commission’s ruling on independent candidate Les Twentyman’s complaint of misleading electoral material during last year’s Kororoit by-election campaign. Twentyman argued that a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals” constituted material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote” under the meaning of section 84 of the Electoral Act, an offence potentially punishable by six months’ imprisonment. Those familiar with complaints of this kind will not be surprised to learn that it was rejected, on the grounds that the section is narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong candidate. The VEC’s report on the by-election states that “legal opinion is that the pamphlet is misleading in its suggestion of an affiliation or agreement between Mr Twentyman and the Liberal Party”, but since this is neither here nor there as far as the Electoral Act is concerned, I can’t help wondering if it’s the commission’s place to say so.

• The Derwent Valley Gazette reports that the Tasmanian Liberals have named six candidate for Lyons at next year’s state election: incumbent Rene Hidding, “Brighton councillor Leigh Gray, vascular surgeon Philip Lamont, transport operator Geoff Page, business consultant Jim Playsted and Meander Valley Mayor Mark Shelton”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,210 comments on “Morgan: 61.5-38.5”

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  1. [Oh well if you’ve got Tuckey’s endorsement what else do you need?]
    If you’ve got Tuckey’s support, nothing else can save you.

  2. So what. Rudd only looked after his own interests by kicking out Beazley when he was travelling along quite nicely towards 2007. Rudd had a chance to lead the ALP in January 2005 and he refused. Rudd put his own ego ahead of the ALP when he kicked out Beazley.

  3. The only people in the Liberal caucus that support Turnbull at the moment are about 5-10 MPs. The rest support Costello. Having said that, I think Costello will lead after 2010. So, Turnbull will lead us to defeat next year.

  4. #52

    Actually Bree I’ll pay you that one.

    I was never impressed with how Rudd knifed Beazley after he’d done all the hard yards and was in a competitive position.

  5. [Rudd only looked after his own interests by kicking out Beazley when he was travelling along quite nicely towards 2007]
    That’s what the party room wanted. Rudd won the contest by 10 votes.

    If Costello called for a leadership challenge tomorrow, he would win it easily. Turnbull doesn’t even have the numbers, yet he is leader.
    [Rudd had a chance to lead the ALP in January 2005 and he refused. ]
    No he didn’t, he didn’t have the numbers then.
    [Rudd put his own ego ahead of the ALP when he kicked out Beazley.]
    Rubbish! The caucus didn’t want Beazley to be leader, that’s why he lost a leadership ballot!

  6. [I was never impressed with how Rudd knifed Beazley after he’d done all the hard yards and was in a competitive position.]

    Beazley has never said rudd knifed him.

    Unlike the Libs the Labor party is gentlemanly in its disposal of leaders.
    🙂

  7. [The only people in the Liberal caucus that support Turnbull at the moment are about 5-10 MPs. The rest support Costello.]
    EXACTLY! This is precisely the point I made. It is just poisonous to go to an election where the leader doesn’t even have the support of his own party.
    [Having said that, I think Costello will lead after 2010. So, Turnbull will lead us to defeat next year.]
    What advantage is there for Costello being leader after 2010 that he doesn’t have now? The economy will be starting to recover next year, so Costello will be taking over at the point in time that the government can crow about getting teh economy through the GFC. Surely it would be easier attacking the government when the economy is going poorly, rather than when it is starting to recover?

  8. [Beazley has never said rudd knifed him.]
    A knifing would’ve been if Rudd and / or his supporters spent a heap of time undermining Beazley. But they didn’t, Beazley sadly undermined himself by forgetting Chapelle Corby, and confusing Karl Rove with Rove McManus.

    Now, Beazley and his supporters certainly spent a heap of time undermining Crean when he was leader, because Beazley realised he should’ve held on to the leadership after the 2001 election.

  9. Costello will never lead the Liberal party – he is out to destroy it. It is payback time for all of the Howard sycophants that didn’t have the guts to stand up to Howard even when it became apparent that they would lose with him at the helm. For Costello to have had a cnace of victory in an election, he would have needed to replace Howard at least 12 months out (preferrably 18 months or more). All of those sycophants that knifed Costello in the back are now targets for him. Costello is just playing games with the party.

    Tom.

  10. [Beazley was still in a strong position in late 2006. No need for Rudd to challenge.]
    He didn’t have the support of the caucus, a leader in that position should be challenged.

  11. Jenny Macklin, Stephen Smith and Tony Smith were all big Beazley supporters. They are not happy with Rudd as leader or PM. I think Gillard’s union mates will get the numbers for her in the caucus and she will challenge Rudd himself after the next election.

  12. [Beazley was still in a strong position in late 2006. No need for Rudd to challenge.]

    Funnily enough I agree but later events also lead me to believe.

    1.Internal ALP/lib polling was showing rudd hadf the “it” factor
    2.Kim was worn out/down by howards ,ahem, politics
    3.The dynamics of the electorate had subtly changed ,in that many people wanted a “cleanskin”
    4.of course worstchoices also brang together alot of diverse groups that neede to be massaged. rudd being the consumate diplomat fitted the bill

    In summary more a gentle bump as opposed to a full bloodletting in the forum

  13. I could accept what Rudd did if he led Labor to a massive landslide ala Kennett shafting Alan Brown. But the victory wasn’t that huge- no better than what Beazley could have achieved. And given all the hard work Kim had put in to keep the party competitive, he deserved to lead them in to office.

  14. Costello wouldn’t want the job unless they were in with a reasonable chance of winning. However if they were in with a good chance of winning I doubt they would want to change horses. Thus Costello wont be leader.

    Costello no doubt planned to have left by now but there being no other opportunities and there being the matter of payback to Howard and his precious Liberal Party and a certain enjoyment in playing with Turnbull.

    Turnbull probably looks on Costello with contempt for having no drive or guts. Costello no doubt knows this and may want Turnbull to fail. It was bad enough that he play second fiddle to Howard for so long and make himself a quiet doormat, it would be galling to see Turnbull take over and do well when he had rejected the option.

    Costello appeared fairly lazy and loose during the last election campaign, how is he going to fare as Leader during a campaign?

  15. [I meant Tony Burke not Tony Smith @ 65.]
    Tony Burke voted for Rudd:
    [The powerful NSW Right faction, who all voted for Kim Beazley in the last showdown, split almost down the middle. Nine of its 15 members, including immigration spokesman Tony Burke, small business spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon and defence spokesman Robert McClelland, voted for Kevin Rudd.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/factions-left-behind-in-leadership-vote/2006/12/04/1165080880899.html
    Of course Macklin voted for Beazley, she had to do so if she wanted to remain Deputy!
    [I think Gillard’s union mates will get the numbers for her in the caucus and she will challenge Rudd himself after the next election.]
    I wish I could have dreams as psychedelic as yours.

  16. Howard had the wood on Beasley (remember the no ticker jibes) whereas he couldn’t lay a glove on Rudd, at least Rudd had the guts to throw his hat in the ring twice, he ran 3rd to Beasley and Latham but didn’t give up and got the top job on his second go. I say thank the good lord for that 🙂

  17. [Costello wouldn’t want the job unless they were in with a reasonable chance of winning. However if they were in with a good chance of winning I doubt they would want to change horses. Thus Costello wont be leader.]

    That’s what I think too.

  18. Labor won with the Ruddster, thus ending 11 years of the Dark Ages. (shudder)

    How he got there doesn’t matter. In this case, the end justifies the means.

  19. 65
    (i)The unions aren’t that strong in the modern ALP – if they were, Julia would have not had to settle for Deputy to start with.
    (ii) The ALP isn’t stupid. While Rudd continues to get stellar poll figures and win elections, he’ll be unchallenged. A more likely scenario is that he does a Bracks and hands over when the time looks right.

    As for the Rudd/Beazley thing – I can assure you that the ALP recognised that Kim wasn’t it – there was an audible despair at branch level when he became leader again, the average branch member could see Julia and or Kev were the go. The caucus was a little slower on the uptake, they were personally fond of Kim and recognised the extent of his contribution – as did Julia and Kevin.
    Beazley’s biggest failing was simply that he couldn’t understand how bad Howard was.

  20. [I think Gillard’s union mates will get the numbers for her in the caucus and she will challenge Rudd himself after the next election.

    I wish I could have dreams as psychedelic as yours.]

    Join the young liberals
    🙂

  21. [ could accept what Rudd did if he led Labor to a massive landslide ]

    There is always the next election to get a landslide, I think most laborites would accept gvt as the minor prize this time.

  22. [Labor won with the Ruddster, thus ending 11 years of the Dark Ages. (shudder)

    How he got there doesn’t matter. In this case, the end justifies the means.]

    One can be biased and say Rudd hasn’t done much since coming to power. Whether or not that’s true, the main thing is that the nasty Howard is no longer there dividing the country. That in itself is an achievement Australians can be proud of.

  23. [So, Turnbull will lead us to defeat next year.]

    Ooooh, even Bree has given up winning the next election. What a telling sign.

  24. [A more likely scenario is that he does a Bracks and hands over when the time looks right]
    I agree. I think it will be sometime in 2014, a year or so after winning a third election.

    Did anyone feel the small earthquake in Melbourne?

  25. Rudd had to have a big enough gap to over come that late swing back to the government as election day approached, fear of change from something familiar. Beasely couldn’t get that gap. I suspect Howard would have snuck over the line against Kym.

    And Rudd totally bamboozled and rattled Howard during the campaign, totally out played him and just about gave him a breakdown. Even so, there was the narrowing come election week.

  26. Rudd had to work hard to beat Howard. He had the strategies worked out. I very much doubt Beazley would have done that over 2007. Howard needed to be negated. Rudd did it to a perfectly. I’m just not convinced Beazley could have pulled off the last election.
    On a different tack, we’ve just experienced an earth tremor in Melbourne. I bet Turnbull will blame Rudd for it. He’s done so for everything else so far.

  27. Diog,

    While you are around.

    Snipping is an occupational hazard. I never complain about what people say about me or ask for special consideration. But neither do I resile from what I posted.

    William has a tough job to maintain standards and balance all the egos that strut around here from time to time. I think he does a pretty good job.

  28. Yes GB felt that too. Doesnt seen to have hit the news yet…

    Given how large Rudd’s leads were heading into the election and the fact that he got a 52.7 2PP, I think Beasley may have lost or just snuck home

  29. #77

    Done. Meet my new lab puppy.

    # 81

    Yes, the glassware just started jittering and the floor rumbling under my feet. Wonder where the epicenter was?

  30. [I’m just not convinced Beazley could have pulled off the last election.]

    Not that it can ever be proven or disproven, but I feel people were much more sick of Howard in 2007 than in 1998 (when Beazley Labor got 51% of the national 2PP) or 2001. The polls were in his favour when he left. If Beazley did win, it wouldn’t have been on 52.7% 2pp/83 seats, it would have been less, but who knows if he would have won or lost.

  31. bob

    Remember in the months leading to the last election when we were all thinking what could happen to get Howie back in. There was (1) a terrorist attack on home soil, (2) a major terrorist attack in the region, (3) a Rudd scandal, (4) a financial crisis (The Libs really lucked out on the timing of the GFC).

    Now all those things are off the table, have already happened or will benefit Rudd if they happen. If you were a Lib, the only possible chance they have is a monumental meltdown in the Oz economy, as bad as other developed countries. The GDP figures show that’s not going to happen.

    They have no hope in the next election.

  32. 62
    I think the fun part is cleaning your browser cache so you can see it. Try
    a)Closing the browser and resarting
    b)Cleaning the browser history
    c)Restart you computer.

    The steps needed depends on your browser and version.

  33. 55,

    I’m solidly in the Labor camp and I was happy to see Beazely go anywhere, as long as he went, I didn’t care if he went of his own accord or if someone turfed him out, as did Rudd. Beazely is a nice man, I’ve nothing against him personally. However, he had his chance (in more than one election) and with Howard turning the country inside out, it was to the greater interest of the country that we get an electable Labor leader in. Damaged goods are just that, no matter how you try to sugar coat them. That is the only reason I wanted Beazely out.

  34. [The earthquakes must be punishment for Victoria’s abortion laws.]
    There’s no other logical explanation for it.

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