Morgan: 61.5-38.5

The latest Morgan survey combines two weekends of face-to-face polling, and it confirms the message elsewhere that Labor has opened up a lead to rival its honeymoon period early last year. Labor’s primary vote is up 2.5 per cent on the last survey to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition is down 3.5 per cent to 33 per cent: its worst result since May 2008, and 1.5 per cent below the previous worst result on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The two-party split of 61.5-38.5 compares with 59.5-40.5 last time. Furthermore:

• Talk of Attorney-General Robert McClelland abandoning parliament for a diplomatic post had escaped my notice, but the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader has reported on the implications for his seat of Barton should it come to pass:

The reports said he would make room for NSW Senator Mark Arbib who wants to be a minister in the Rudd cabinet and had set his sights on Mr McClelland’s seat. If Mr McClelland was “white-anted” he would take a diplomatic post and Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane would be called in as a potential powerbroker to help Senator Arbib take Barton in any preselection fightthat might arise for the next federal election.

The story is denied by all concerned.

Paul Austin of The Age gets a bit over-excited about the Victorian Electoral Commission’s ruling on independent candidate Les Twentyman’s complaint of misleading electoral material during last year’s Kororoit by-election campaign. Twentyman argued that a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals” constituted material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote” under the meaning of section 84 of the Electoral Act, an offence potentially punishable by six months’ imprisonment. Those familiar with complaints of this kind will not be surprised to learn that it was rejected, on the grounds that the section is narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong candidate. The VEC’s report on the by-election states that “legal opinion is that the pamphlet is misleading in its suggestion of an affiliation or agreement between Mr Twentyman and the Liberal Party”, but since this is neither here nor there as far as the Electoral Act is concerned, I can’t help wondering if it’s the commission’s place to say so.

• The Derwent Valley Gazette reports that the Tasmanian Liberals have named six candidate for Lyons at next year’s state election: incumbent Rene Hidding, “Brighton councillor Leigh Gray, vascular surgeon Philip Lamont, transport operator Geoff Page, business consultant Jim Playsted and Meander Valley Mayor Mark Shelton”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,210 comments on “Morgan: 61.5-38.5”

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  1. Showy, i said about Diog the other day, but i think this apply to you as well.

    Were you told when you were young that pain would lead to pleasure?

  2. Diogenes @107

    Clearly the answer to the Palestine vs Israel question is too implement the original Kimberly Scheme (albeit a bit late).

    I would guess this would stretch the limits of our religious tolerance. Perhaps we should re-examine the religious privilege of child indoctrination.

    However the advantages for this country would be great. The obvious one would be the formation of the Australian Republic (simply by importing 5 million new Australians). The would give us the opportunity to fix a dysfunctional system that led to the only illegal overthrow of a democratically elected government in a post-war developed nation.

    At a more practical level, this would also provide a large influx of highly skilled migrants who could assist us in nation building projects. An good place to start would be establishing our Nuclear Power (electrical/geopolitical) industry.

  3. “The would give us the opportunity to fix a dysfunctional system that led to the only illegal overthrow of a democratically elected government in a post-war developed nation”

    Isn’t 34 years time to move on?

  4. Finns
    [Were you told when you were young that pain would lead to pleasure?]

    Boarding school flashbacks troubling you again eh.

  5. [Clearly the answer to the Palestine vs Israel question is too implement the original Kimberly Scheme]

    There are already people living in the Kimberley, remember? It’s not terra nullius, remember?

  6. [Boarding school ]

    Gus, i wish, i wish. we were so poor. we made the Slumdog Millionaire looks like a real millionaire

  7. Geez, while I’m personally enjoying the cricket update, I’ll just bet William is going to be less than pleased.

  8. There you go. A mother (nearly) almost always knows when things have gone too far. The bulge in my cheek ain’t crabapples.

  9. [Gus, i wish, i wish. we were so poor. we made the Slumdog Millionaire looks like a real millionaire ]

    You were tic looky

    We wouldve died or worse to be poor.

    Looxury

  10. Why is religious tolerance regarded as controversial?

    Provided there’s no direct incitement to violence or discrimination, people should be free to criticise and ridicule people’s religion as much as they want. If people are offended that’s their tough luck.

  11. Finns, that’s very funny. And yep, MDMConnell, you got it. Finns, where do you come up with the amazing array of sublimely apposite and silly stuff that you do?

  12. [Provided there’s no direct incitement to violence or discrimination, people should be free to criticise and ridicule people’s religion as much as they want. If people are offended that’s their tough luck.]
    We were unsure if the Victorian legislation makes it unlawful to criticise religions as well as particular people for ascribing to religions. IMO, if someone can’t criticise religion itself, then that means we no longer have free speech.

    This was in the context of some posters suggesting Iran should be bombed using nuclear weapons ASAP.

  13. HSO

    I’m to blame. I said anything about religious views and criticism of religion can get ugly.

    MDMC

    There are Victorian laws about ridiculing religion. That makes it controversial. And there are bludgers with strong religious beliefs who are quite offended when they are criticised or ridiculed. It’s a can of worms.

  14. [I’m to blame. I said anything about religious views and criticism of religion can get ugly.]

    i knew it. it has to be Diog. I need to have a word with the delightful Mrs. D.

  15. Nothing changes.

    [Morgan Stanley’s 13% Payout Offer To Short Ford Stock (EXCLUSIVE)

    Morgan Stanley was offering Ford shareholders a highly unusual deal on Monday.

    Two days before Ford announced a major debt restructuring that diluted shareholders, TARP-recipient Morgan Stanley was asking its private wealth clients who owned shares in the Detroit car company whether they could use those shares to execute short sales.

    In a short sale, the short-seller “borrows” securities, then sells it, on the belief the stock price will fall. The short-seller then repurchases the securities at the new, lower price, and returns it to the lender. In this way, the short-seller profits from selling the borrowed securities for more than he later repurchases them for.

    According to an email obtained by the Huffington Post, a Morgan Stanley financial advisor sent a letter to a private wealth management client who owns several thousand shares of Ford stock, asking permission to use the stock for short-sales. In the email, Morgan Stanley Stock Services indicates it would pay the client 13% on the dollar value of the stock borrowed, annualized………..]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/05/morgan-stanleys-13-payout_n_172259.html

  16. #167 Those above have answered for me.

    #170,171: I’m not a huge fan of laws enforcing ‘tolerance’ but if you must have them, obviously they should be used responsibly and not for silencing legitimate free speech criticising religion. If the Victorian laws are against ‘ridiculing’ religion then that’s not good.

  17. [btw Gus, how is the job hunting going?]
    SNAFU

    WB
    I dont mind finns having my email (actually mrs g”s), if you want to drop us a line
    cheers

  18. O.K. thanks guys. It’s a weird thing to me, I’ll say. Religious beliefs of all sorts have sustained people through dreadful events, both man made and natural. If that helps people cope with catastrophic stuff, I take the view, who am I to argue with it. I can’t, however, countenance people killing people in the U.S, who perform abortions, for example. At any rate, it is a subject that will engender feirce debate. Not all of it helpful.

  19. [Yes, supporting left wing causes are common sense ]
    It seems to me that over time society becomes more socially liberal. Think about it, first only male property owners get to vote, then all men do, then women do, then indigenous peoples do. Initially it was almost impossible to get divorced, then it became easy.

    Surely the fact there is this slow progress in a particular direction means something. The policies are right, because they are fair.

  20. Bree, I don’t know why you bother. Let me spell it out for you. Most people here, including the people from the opposition, don’t take you seriously. Go do a course or something. Try destroying a union. Try thinking.

  21. MDM,

    The reality is that people who want to exercise their right to “stick” it to religion generally can’t deal with the blowback.

    They tend to get all defensive.

  22. God’s own garden of Eden,nay the Promised land,home of the free blah blah blah
    smack bang in the centre of the Central coast

    Sodom is just down the F3

  23. [It is not common sense for the government to steal your hard earned money.]
    Your theory that taxation is stealing would make Marx and Engels very proud. Marx called a fair distribution of resources through taxation “obsolete verbal rubbish”, because he didn’t believe in justice (the need for justice implies that a society is inherently unfair).

    In other news, Turnbull’s essay calls Rudd a socialist, and says he is one of the wealthiest P.M.’s we have ever had because his wife owned a private business.

    Can both of these propositions be correct?

  24. I thought Gus was in Quinland, but wherever he is, perhaps he’s gone to bed, as I’m going to do. Kerist, I’m glad we seem to have got through the worst of it. I’ve had the appalling experience of being involved in any number of traumatic events here in Victoria, to the extent they now call me TM (Trauma Magnet), but the bushfires have been the worst.

  25. If you haven’t heard socialists doing much crowing over the fall of capitalism, it isn’t just because there aren’t enough of us to make an audible crowing sound. We, as much as anyone on Wall Street in, say, 2006, appreciate the resilience of American capitalism–its ability to regroup and find fresh avenues for growth, as it did after the depressions of 1877, 1893 and the 1930s. In fact, The Communist Manifesto can be read not only as an indictment of capitalism but as a breathless paean to its dynamism. And we all know the joke about the Marxist economist who successfully predicted eleven out of the last three recessions.

    More on “If We Are in the Death Spiral of Capitalism, Can We Start Using the “S” Word?” at http://www.alternet.org/workplace/130365/

  26. Having just watched that Lateline I don’t think Bree is going to be a Laura Tingle fan for long. She and George speak to much sense for Bree.

  27. [The reality is that people who want to exercise their right to “stick” it to religion generally can’t deal with the blowback.]
    You mean like limiting pro-life beliefs to only people who agree with you? Yeah, I’ve noted that sort of hypocrisy.

  28. [Having just watched that Lateline I don’t think Bree is going to be a Laura Tingle fan for long. She and George speak to much sense for Bree.]
    I think Tingle and Megalogenis are two of the best political / economic journalists we have. They both seem to be pretty centrist to me.

  29. [Gus, i have asked William to pass my email to you. see what i can do.]

    May your camels always keep humping effendi
    🙂

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