Morgan: 61.5-38.5

The latest Morgan survey combines two weekends of face-to-face polling, and it confirms the message elsewhere that Labor has opened up a lead to rival its honeymoon period early last year. Labor’s primary vote is up 2.5 per cent on the last survey to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition is down 3.5 per cent to 33 per cent: its worst result since May 2008, and 1.5 per cent below the previous worst result on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The two-party split of 61.5-38.5 compares with 59.5-40.5 last time. Furthermore:

• Talk of Attorney-General Robert McClelland abandoning parliament for a diplomatic post had escaped my notice, but the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader has reported on the implications for his seat of Barton should it come to pass:

The reports said he would make room for NSW Senator Mark Arbib who wants to be a minister in the Rudd cabinet and had set his sights on Mr McClelland’s seat. If Mr McClelland was “white-anted” he would take a diplomatic post and Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane would be called in as a potential powerbroker to help Senator Arbib take Barton in any preselection fightthat might arise for the next federal election.

The story is denied by all concerned.

• Paul Austin of The Age gets a bit over-excited about the Victorian Electoral Commission’s ruling on independent candidate Les Twentyman’s complaint of misleading electoral material during last year’s Kororoit by-election campaign. Twentyman argued that a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals” constituted material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote” under the meaning of section 84 of the Electoral Act, an offence potentially punishable by six months’ imprisonment. Those familiar with complaints of this kind will not be surprised to learn that it was rejected, on the grounds that the section is narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong candidate. The VEC’s report on the by-election states that “legal opinion is that the pamphlet is misleading in its suggestion of an affiliation or agreement between Mr Twentyman and the Liberal Party”, but since this is neither here nor there as far as the Electoral Act is concerned, I can’t help wondering if it’s the commission’s place to say so.

• The Derwent Valley Gazette reports that the Tasmanian Liberals have named six candidate for Lyons at next year’s state election: incumbent Rene Hidding, “Brighton councillor Leigh Gray, vascular surgeon Philip Lamont, transport operator Geoff Page, business consultant Jim Playsted and Meander Valley Mayor Mark Shelton”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,210 comments on “Morgan: 61.5-38.5”

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  4. Italy to boycott U.N. conference against racism:
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25150569-23109,00.html

    Canada, U.S. and Israel also aren’t attending. I don’t think Australia should attend. Essentially the forum keeps being hijacked by Islamic states to attack Israel, while passing motions condemning the publishing of cartoons featuring Muhammad.

    The trouble is, if Australia doesn’t attend that probably kills our chances of getting a seat on the Security Council.

    That was the best Friday Forum in a long while.

  9. No 204

    The Italians have more pressing issues at home like solving endemic corruption, liberalising the economy, retiring debt, abolishing generous pensions…..dear oh dear I’ll be here all night cataloguing Italy’s problems.

  10. [dear oh dear I’ll be here all night cataloguing Italy’s problems.]
    Sure, but it is good of them taking a stand against the circus that that U.N. forum has turned into. Basically it is now a place for Islamic states to attack Israel and to try to ban free speech, i.e. the right of people to criticise, mock, critique, or otherwise make fun of Islam.

  13. [WOW Channel 9 is playing The Wild Bunch, one of the best westerns ever made.]

    wasnt it peckinpah’s first western???

  15. [wasnt it peckinpah’s first western???]
    The Deadly Companions, Ride the High Country, Major Dundee, The Wild Bunch.

    And he made some Western TV shows in between.

    I haven’t seen any of the TV ones, but all the films are worth a look. Ride the High Country and The Wild Bunch are first rate.

  18. [tough cookies or what!!]
    Got to love William Holden’s first line in the film – “If they move….. kill ’em!”

  19. [i havnt seen Megalogenis on the tele for awhile. Seems to have aged considerabley in a relativley short time.]

    It looked to me like it was partly due to what looked like a dodgy blue screen (or do they use a green screen these days?) the ABC was using so they could superimpose his image against that red background lateline uses.

  20. My Magnificent 7 Westerns, in that order:

    1. Magnificent 7
    2. The Wild Bunch.
    3. Rio Bravo
    4. High Noon
    5. Vera Cruz
    6. Shane
    7. Winchester ’73

  24. Great list! I’d have to include Man of the West, The Searchers, Johnny Guitar, Fort Apache, Jubal, The Last Frontier, The Gunfighter, and a heap of others.

    Why does Channel 9 show the credits in proper widescreen, then the rest of the film cropped?

  28. G.G. Just thought I’d pop in again before going to bed, and wow. I’ve played it twice and will again, and go to bed happy.

  29. I think any western that clint did is worth a mention as well.

    My Da loved all the TV serials such as Bonanza,High Chapparel , Gunsmoke,Rawhide etc

    I have to say i just loved the Cisco kid and the original Zorro.
    🙁

  31. [The Professionals – Burt Lancaster, Lee Marvin, Robert Ryan]
    Great film! I must admit I prefer Seven Samurai to The Magnificent Seven. A better John Sturges Western is Last Train from Gun Hill.

  35. [Showy, Kurosawa has said that the M7 is better than S7]
    Agree
    S7 has the wow factor but M7 has that extra oomph factor as well

  36. [Showy, Kurosawa has said that the M7 is better than S7]
    I don’t believe him! Seriously, Sturges made a lot of better westerns IMO, like Saddle the Wind, Gunfight at the O.K. Coral, The Law and Jake Wade, even Bad Day at Black Rock is kind of a modern western.

    But the crazy thing is that Seven Samurai was heavily influenced by John Ford westerns. So Magnificent Seven is like full circle.

    All the best filmmakers just know who to copy from. 🙂

  42. The corruption of the ethos of cricket by television, which has fatally undermined the status of the umpire by second-guessing every decision and forcing the introduction of all these techo gimmicks.

  44. [The corruption of the ethos of cricket by television, ]
    I think if the third umpire was made responsible for monitoring front foot no-balls the accuracy of LBW and caught behind decisions would dramatically increase. The third umpire should sit there watching the front foot camera angle, and if one is a no-ball they press a button that sounds a siren.

    There just isn’t enough time for the standing umpire to go from looking at the front foot to the batsmen and not occasionally make a mistake. (Like thinking the ball pitched on the stumps when it didn’t).

  46. Finns, the bed’s still there. Did you see “The Proposition”? William is probably going to be just as cross about the film review breakout as a cricket one….but he doesn’t seem to be around.

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