Essential Research: 62-38

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 62-38. Also included are an interesting question on what Peter Costello should do (34 per cent quit, 46 per stay in various possible capacities), along with very detailed material on economic management. Not only but also:

• A comprehensively briefed Andrew Landeryou at VexNews explains the background to the Victorian Liberal Senate preselection vote to be held this Friday. Michael Ronaldson seems assured of retaining his top position, but Julian McGauran faces an uphill battle for third place against Ross Fox, a Peter Costello backer. The second place is reserved for the Nationals.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on a NSW Liberal state executive ruling that new members in Bradfield will not be eligible to vote in the preselection to replace Brendan Nelson, to be held in nine months. Normally party rules require membership for six months for eligibility, but that would be an invitation to mass branch stacking in the current circumstances. Coorey also weighs in on recent shenanigans in the Perth seat of Tangney.

• Tasmanian LHMWU secretary David O’Byrne has confirmed he will seek preselection as a candidate for Franklin at next year’s state election. O’Byrne is a former state party president and brother of Bass MP Michelle O’Byrne. Among the Liberal candidates will be Vanessa Goodwin, who narrowly failed to defeat the now-departed Paula Wreidt at the 2006 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,522 comments on “Essential Research: 62-38”

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  3. [Bank of England cuts rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%.]
    Would it encourage spending if they paid people interest to borrow, and charge interest on savings? 😀

  4. [There’s tax cuts legislated for July 1st. ]

    I’m aware of that. There’s another round next year as well. That’s a legacy of the Howard vote buying strategy and Rudd had little option but to sign on.

    I respect the fact that Rudd will honor the tax cut commitment but I’d like to see an end to tax cuts being used as the panacea to all of the financial ills in business and society.

  7. [I’d like to see an end to tax cuts being used as the panacea to all of the financial ills in business and society.]
    Me too. That’s one of my major reasons why I can’t stand the Liberals, whatever the circumstance is they think you can sold problems by cutting taxes and cutting the pay and conditions of low skilled workers. It’s the Republican Party policy imported to Australia.

  9. [beep, beep, beep…. meanwhile back at the ranch…… GM is on the brink]
    Just let it collapse I say. The U.S. government may be able to save 2 car markers, but 3, I doubt it.

  12. [Turnbull knows zilch about the economy without Costello giving him advice.]
    Costello knows zilch about the economy without Treasury giving him advice.

    He demonstrated this tonight on Q&A when he didn’t understand that savings is simply deferred spending.

  13. [write books no-one wants to read,]

    Oh really? The Costello Memoirs has sold over 40,000 copies, making it one of the all-time best sellers for political books.

  14. [The Costello Memoirs has sold over 40,000 copies, making it one of the all-time best sellers for political books.]
    Unfortunately it is boring as hell to read. He blames all the mistakes of the Howard government on John Howard, and takes credit for anything that was popular.

  15. Did anyone read Mark Latham’s article in the AFR yesterday? It was excellent. It was about Rudd using media spin to show off economic credentials he doesn’t have.

  19. No 1414

    I found it interesting. I thought Van Onselen’s biography of John Howard was better written, however.

  20. [Turnbull knows zilch about the economy without Costello giving him advice.]

    What, like Costello declaring last year that we had reached the bottom of the GFC? He’s an economic dunce.

  21. Not to mention Hawke/Keating have a long list of economic reforms, during global recessions (again, not to mention, having guided us out of the late 70s/early 80s one). What do Howard/Costello have? NoChoices and a consumption tax. Whoop de doo.

  22. [I think Costello is loving the current environment, everybody saying nice things of him, everybody wanting him to lead the Liberals this is not what he got during the Howie Years…]

    Glen, that’s one of the smartest observations you’ve ever made. Costello is all about ego. For 11 years he couldn’t have the top job despite agreements by Howard to hand it over to him, and now that Howard is gone, Costello would rather have everyone lavish praise on him like they used to do to Howard. He doesn’t want the leadership and the realities to sink in like they did/have for Brenda and Turnbull. His ego is too big for that. He’d much rather remain where he is, seen by all in his party as the messiah.

  28. Immature spoilt brat was Costello’s Q and A persona, they are not the qualities of a leader. I think Costello’s baton is still firmly in his backpack, he is enjoying Turnbulls destruction yet has no intention of being leader.

    I was left with the impression that Tanner was the only person on the panel with more than two brain cells to rub together, I admired the guy, surrounded by morons and he kept his cool.

    As for the show itself, it was serious issue and it was turned into a farce.

  30. Bree mumbled

    Look who it is! Keating thinks stimulus is not effective:

    Keating actually thinks all the stimulus’s, including the one being handed out by the USA will not be effective. He is suggesting a much stronger role for the G20. It was not an attack on Rudd.

  31. Judith I used to respect the guy, I didn’t watch the destruction of his credibility too closely, to think I once argued with my wife that he was ok, she could never stand him and she was right.

  32. fredn, i think we all go through times when we take our pollies on face value and see them as we want them to be, i had a time when i thought Latham was the answer to labor’s probs and where i was wary of Gillard, it was only when Gillard came into her responsabilitys and grew with it all that i changed my mind, she’s proved her mettle over and over and yet Latham proved to be a clay idol. 🙂

  33. [Keating thinks stimulus is not effective]

    I think I’ve worked it out! Bree writes the headlines for ABC News Online.

  35. Why is there a picture of Costello on the front page of the ABC news site shoing us the length of his ‘manhood’? 😉

    Tom

  37. Rann has worked out that the Rudd-Wong deal on the MDB is a piece of junk cobbled together to keep everyone happy and deliver nothing, which seems to be a trademark of Wong’s policies. I don’t often agree with Rann but I think he’s got it right this time. The fact that it’s got up the noses of eastern state pundits so much shows it was the right thing to do.

    [KEVIN Rudd’s $13 billion deal to rescue the Murray-Darling river system imploded yesterday as South Australia threatened to go to the High Court to force states upstream to release water and pay damages.

    The proposed constitutional challenge would target Queensland, NSW and Victoria over water trading restrictions and force them to release permanent water flows into the river.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25145767-601,00.html

  39. ABC bias: yesterday Fran Kelly had Swan on, today she had Hockey. Hockey got less time, and was given a much rougher ride. She was deferential to Swan, but talked over the top of Hockey. The 8am news which followed led with a negative story about Costello destabilising Turnbull, based on his Q&A appearance last night – ie, on speculation. Sounds like the same old ABC to me, bless ’em.

  40. [Oh really? The Costello Memoirs has sold over 40,000 copies, making it one of the all-time best sellers for political books.]

    Do you have a link?
    [The Latham Diaries (55,000 copies sold in 2004) and The Hawke Memoirs (75,000 in 1994). I argued that there had been many more forgettable efforts.

    Adler was defensive because she had 50,000 copies of The Costello Memoirs on their way into bookshops. Media reports of the book’s sales since then have been harsh: they have “slowed to a trickle”, “tanked” or “completely died away”. But it’s not quite so bad.

    According to Nielsen BookScan, Costello sold 8200 in the first six days (The Latham Diaries sold 13,500 in its first week) and another 4000 in the second week, ending September 27. Adler puts the total at 15,000 sales (BookScan does not cover all outlets).

    That pattern might not be good enough to sell 50,000 or prompt the 20,000 reprint Adler was planning. And, depending on Peter Costello’s advance, it might lose money for MUP.]

    http://blogs.smh.com.au/entertainment/archives/undercover/020279.html

  41. 1440, ‘Keating: The Inside Story’ was up until about 2 weeks ago, the only Aussie political bio I’ve ever purchased. A few weeks ago, I purchased a Curtin biography. When someone turns up better than those two men, I will purchase their bio 😀

  42. Adam

    I still feel dirty after watching last night’s QANDA Cossie LoveFest. I’m more convinced than ever that Cossie will end up leading the Libs. The speculation is fair enough as he keeps feeding it. Turnbull must be really pissed off.

  46. I am disappointed in myself. I actually felt sorry for Malcolm this am – he looked awful in the piccies we saw on telly this am. Costello must be getting to him.

    Speaking of which, he was awful last night. How sick are we of hearing he was Treasurer for 12 years and that he singlehandedly saved Australia, yakkety yak, yak, yak. Seems the old fella is mightily jealous of Ruddie, too.

    He didn’t like it when Sally from The Monthly said that he benefitted from good things done by Hawke and Keating. The mouth set hard into his forced smile and the coldness oozed from the eyes.

    For goodness put up or shut up, Costello.

    How good is Lindsay Tanner with the quick quip – left Costello for dead.

  47. I agree Adam – a big change this morning with Fran Kelly. She must be sick of hearing Hockey’s ridiculous spiel.

    Craig Emerson was excellent and seems to be a good Minister for Small Business – we need that badly at the moment.

  48. BH @ 1446,

    [
    BH
    Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 10:02 am | Permalink
    I am disappointed in myself. I actually felt sorry for Malcolm this am – he looked awful in the piccies we saw on telly this am. Costello must be getting to him.
    ]

    50 lashes with a wet noodle and into the corner with you 😀 ……. don’t get sucked in by any of them 😉

  49. I missed QandA but I think Costello was foolish debating tanner – all the times I have heard Tanner speak on economics he obviously is intelligent and convincing on the topic in a way that Costello will never be without treasury speaking notes.

    As for the economy, I don’t doubt TP and others concerns about Citibank (dead) GM (dying) and a few others. However, at this point I wish they woudl just bite the bullet and nationalise or kill them. They can’t recover so its better to get it over with and start trying to find new jobs for the people concerned.

    I am also more optimistic in the medium term for some recovery. Economists always project the future based on the past. When the past is good they are over optimistic. When the past is bad (recent past terrible) theya re over pessimistic.

    That being said, I hope someone in Canberra is working out what to do with Holden if GM go under. When Lehamns collapsed they ransacked their British subsidiary of cash just before hand. I fear GM could be tempted to do the same.

  50. Banks failing is one thing – no-one likes banks. But no US government could let GM go broke, it’s a national icon. It’s hard to conceive of nationalisation in the US, but if the alternative is GM going bust that’s what they’ll do. More likely though is some fudge involving mergers, rationalisation, more government handouts and maybe foreign equity.

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