Essential Research: 62-38

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 62-38. Also included are an interesting question on what Peter Costello should do (34 per cent quit, 46 per stay in various possible capacities), along with very detailed material on economic management. Not only but also:

• A comprehensively briefed Andrew Landeryou at VexNews explains the background to the Victorian Liberal Senate preselection vote to be held this Friday. Michael Ronaldson seems assured of retaining his top position, but Julian McGauran faces an uphill battle for third place against Ross Fox, a Peter Costello backer. The second place is reserved for the Nationals.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on a NSW Liberal state executive ruling that new members in Bradfield will not be eligible to vote in the preselection to replace Brendan Nelson, to be held in nine months. Normally party rules require membership for six months for eligibility, but that would be an invitation to mass branch stacking in the current circumstances. Coorey also weighs in on recent shenanigans in the Perth seat of Tangney.

• Tasmanian LHMWU secretary David O’Byrne has confirmed he will seek preselection as a candidate for Franklin at next year’s state election. O’Byrne is a former state party president and brother of Bass MP Michelle O’Byrne. Among the Liberal candidates will be Vanessa Goodwin, who narrowly failed to defeat the now-departed Paula Wreidt at the 2006 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,522 comments on “Essential Research: 62-38”

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  1. Boy, Gary Morgan certainly has a keen sense for what’s required

    [It is imperative that the Opposition provide a united front to the Rudd Government during this period or else it will remain well behind the Rudd Government]

    I think it’s call ‘stating the bleeding obvious.’

  2. [SNIP: Quote of deleted comment deleted – The Management.]


    You don’t have to get personal, and there are real failings not alleged, unfortunately your stance is similar to those who defend Stalin and AH, but think of all the good they did also.

  3. Regarding the infamous GDP figures and our near recession, did anyone see the state by state break-down on ABC news that night? Alan Kohler had the figures. They showed all states had slowed, with WA, QLD and VIC still in positive growth mode.

    I was interested to note that SA was the worst result – a 1.2% drop. Given that I live in Adelaide and frankly hadn’t noticed things being that bad, I was quite surprised. I presume this had to come from a big drop in export income, or something similar. Does anyone know the cause of this? Has Holden stopped exporting to the US?

  4. [I hope that was an ironic comment.]

    You will find people and statements defending those two, made the country prosperous a power again and still some look back at Joseph with nostalgia for his strong rule.

    Similar with the issue in Brazil and greenies response, automatic, but look a the good they do, no acknowledgement that there was a lot of wrong there. As for choice maybe in a country like that they may not have too much of a choice whether they want to belong or not, looks like it is quite a powerful institution.

    Any wrong has to at least be acknowledged or addressed, not brushed away with the revolting response.

    Rudd acknowledged the stolen generation, whilst the libs either denied it had happened or pointed to those taken who had “made better of themselves”, Keating eventually acknowledged that the high interest rates had hurt many, when he could have continued ignoring it by saying but look at all the reforms I did.

  5. Socrates 1492, current price of GM stock is $1.86 a share, US dollars. Don’t know what the high water mark has been over the years but I’m reasonably certain that it was something in the triple digits …..


    GM shares, which lost 87 percent of their value in 2008, fell 34 cents, or 15.5 percent, to $1.86 Thursday.

    Both GM and Chrysler LLC, which also has received government loans, face a March 31 deadline to get signed agreements for concessions from debtholders and the UAW to show the government they can become viable again. If they can’t reach the necessary deals, the government could recall the loans and force the companies into bankruptcy protection.

    Looks like April Fool’s Day will take on a whole new meaning in 2009 🙁

  6. 😀

    “Layoffs for Leaders” {Dave Astor of the Huff. Post}

    The official unemployment rate is 7.6%, but that’s not reflected in the unemployment rate of officials. Before the economy tanked, the U.S. had 435 House members, 100 senators, and 50 governors. After the tanking: 435 House members, 100 senators, and 50 governors. What’s wrong with this picture?

    I’ll tell you what’s wrong. Many of those 585 bigwigs (especially the Republicans) share some blame for our nasty recession, but they aren’t getting laid off at the same rate as everyone else. As a matter of fact, they’re not getting laid off at all. Where’s the shared sacrifice?

    Sure, voters can electorally remove these politicians, but the deposed pols would just be replaced by other pols. What other workplace is doing ANY replacing these days?

    Some quick math indicates that 7.6% of 585 is roughly 44 (I hope that’s correct because my calculator was laid off last week). So 44 officials need to get the boot.

    This, of course, leads to the question of which 44. I favor taping to a wall the names of every Republican who voted against the stimulus package and pink-slipping the first 44 hit by taxpayer-tossed darts. This elegant approach jibes with the way many corporations randomly fire workers.

    Other people might have different downsizing suggestions — such as laying off the 44 oldest white-male senators in the hopes of diversifying that august club. Meanwhile, people who dislike reruns of TV’s Eight Is Enough might want to oust 44 of the 50 governors because, well, maybe six is enough.

    One last thought. If the unemployment rate ever soars past 40%, that profound tragedy would have a silver lining: layoffs for four members of the U.S. Supreme Court. No darts needed to choose the men who would be in THAT canned quartet.

  7. GG 1510, I didn’t know what Goodwin’s Law was. I googled it and learned something new today. Thanks much for the education 😉 ……

  8. juliem

    Hopefully the government will take over the GM pension obligations. Otherwise I don’t see how they can be paid. GM just aren’t selling enough cars now to have sufficient income.

  9. GG, God wins, anytime, anyplace, anywhere, anyhow, anything, anyone, anybody, anymean. But the problem is so Allah, Jehovah, Yahweh, Ra, Buddha, Amaterasu, TianDi.

    In the end, we all lost.

  10. I highly doubt that Swan would be replaced by Tanner any time soon. Not at least before another election. Obviously there is the faction thing. But what people forget is the power of parochialism. Especially with the weakness of the New South Wales branch of the party i would think that the best hopes for pick ups would be in queensland (Dickson, Bowman and Herbet just a donkey vote away) not to mention those they already won. A redistribution could provide even more possibilities.

  11. I don’t know what all this Swanny speculation is about, lordy be he’s been in the ring with 3 Libs for 2 KO’s and his present opponent is looking shaky! When Joe starts to topple and you here the shout TIMBER run for your lives, the bigger they are the harder the fall so they say lol
    I didn’t mention the f word so as not to upset Glen 🙂 Big’s OK isn’t it?

  12. [I invoke Godwins Law. You lose.]

    OK, I’ll just use Joseph as an example next time then or Pell, but I don’t want to turn itinto some god debate, it was more about dismissing a wrong by saying hey look at all the good we do.

    Never say “sorry” eh. Seems to apply across all spectrums, business, politics religion.

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