Morgan: 60-40

Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.

UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.

• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.

• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.

• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,154 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

Comments Page 3 of 24
1 2 3 4 … 24

  4. [Sadly I don’t think we can expect much after 1 year. There are huge problems which will take ages to fix.]

    Absolutely. I heard what the timelines were for each area (health, education, housing etc) and they were depressingly slow to turn around. They say about 30 years to halve the life expectancy gap. School participation and incarceration rates were ones that could significantly turn in 5 years.

  5. Another backhander to Malcolm. I bet this hurts. Would think his phone has been running pretty hot the past couple of days.

    [Small businesses slam stimulus package delay]

    [Small businesses say they have lost hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue because of the delay in approving the Federal Government’s stimulus package.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/13/2490900.htm?section=justin

    And Julie Bishop wanted to waity & see what happened without any package. Dill!

  6. Well that’s it for the week, it was an action paked week that nearly saw the demise of the opposition but in the end only the demise of turnbull, after the most likely event occured. Australia will have a shallow recession, the government will get back in and in brighter days will be bundled with the debt, which will mean that the coalition might sneek in or at least be competitivein 2013…ho hum, i might come back in 2013….then again what else would I do?

  8. I don’t know why Mr X was so worried about water in the Murray. Seems to be enough at the moment.

    [As everyone talks about the urgent need for water in the drought-affected Murray, a red-faced driver has made his own contribution to the river.

    The man backed his four-wheel-drive down a boat ramp at Murray Bridge in South Australia but forgot to put on the handbrake.

    The vehicle, trailer and boat all went into the river and sank within minutes. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/13/2490959.htm?section=justin

  9. Anyone who thinks indigenous disadvantage can be turned around in a year, or five years, is a fool. It will take at least 20 years. And it won’t happen at all if the indigenous community continues to tolerate idiots like Dodson, Mansell and Geoff Clark strutting around pretending to be Black Panthers and claiming to be their leaders. Certainly there is a lot governments can do and must do. Be there also needs to be indigenous leadership with the courage to challenge entrenched attitudes to things like work and education in indigenous communities.

  10. Lenore Taylor said this. The interesting bit is the last sentence. I was under the impression that the Shadow Cabinet was 100% against the package. Now she says there were members “who argued strongly against the Coalition’s just-say-no tactic”.

    [For his part, Turnbull’s strategy was based on the Rudd plan passing but not being effective, allowing him to argue at the next election that Labor drove the country deep into debt to no avail, and dusting off all the old “Labor can’t be trusted to manage the economy” arguments.

    But that strategy also comes apart if the Government’s package fails to pass. The prospect that the crossbenchers might actually vote the package down was, in fact, the deepest fear of those in shadow Cabinet who argued strongly against the Coalition’s just-say-no tactic.]

    Where can we find these sensible responsible Shadow Ministers because we’ve seen no evidence of them so far? Who are they?

  12. [Where can we find these sensible responsible Shadow Ministers because we’ve seen no evidence of them so far? Who are they?]
    Minchin and Pyne. Then some backbenchers, Fran Bailey and Kevin Andrews.

  13. Tom
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    #2690

    “On poll bludger we have very little independent thought, people either agree with Labor down the line or the Libs, it is quite sad really that people who like politics just go with the flow and cannot think.”

    You made a post last week claiming you would NEVER reflect on othrs standards ,
    claiming I had implied having this “devine right” to over th “Oiliness’ word ….but that you wuld NEVER do so

    ‘never’ ? but you just did……worse still…you hav never leap to my defense of taking an independnt line at all ( not that i want it) , nor to th defense of othrs (Labor & Lib posters here) who’ve also you’ve done so & been mauled eg Dyno

    BTW , you never even gav your owmn independant view Tom , how about it ?

  15. I don’t know what the Liberals gained out of their strategy this week.

    Last night Gillard said, if they wanted to make a point, they could’ve opposed in the House, then supported in the Senate. That’s what they did at the end of last year on the education and infrastructure bills.

    Wouldn’t that of made it easier for them to walk both sides of the street? Whereas opposing it outright means there cold be some really effective campaigning at the next election. All the incumbent Liberals would be forced to explain why they opposed new school buildings in every electorate in the country. And by the next election they will probably all be finished being built.

  16. [I don’t know what the Liberals gained out of their strategy this week.]

    In the short term, nothing. In the long term, if Australia has a severe recession, they will be able to say “I told you so.” That was always their strategy, hoping for failure. They have no other, because obviously if Australia doesn’t have a recession, or even if we have a milder one than everyone else, Rudd will get all the credit. Turnbull WANTS and NEEDS a severe recession, because that is his only hope for winning in 2010.

  17. [In the short term, nothing. In the long term, if Australia has a severe recession, they will be able to say “I told you so.” That was always their strategy, hoping for failure. They have no other, because obviously if Australia doesn’t have a recession, or even if we have a milder one than everyone else, Rudd will get all the credit. Turnbull WANTS and NEEDS a severe recession, because that is his only hope for winning in 2010.]

    Agree totally

  18. [Wouldn’t that of made it easier for them to walk both sides of the street? Whereas opposing it outright means there cold be some really effective campaigning at the next election. All the incumbent Liberals would be forced to explain why they opposed new school buildings in every electorate in the country. And by the next election they will probably all be finished being built.]

    and suffer as they are snubbed at the official openings of said schools by Julia Gillard and their local ALP Senator 🙂

  19. They also can’t be tied down to anything because as they put no amendments forward the Government won’t be able to turn around and say that what they’d proposed would’ve put us in a better position.

    In essence the Libs will be able to say “We would have done this” with the opportunity hindsight.

  20. [urnbull WANTS and NEEDS a severe recession, because that is his only hope for winning in 2010]

    We have seen poster, Generic Person, a confessed Liberal, on this blog, hoping Australia has the the deepest ever recession.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/02/06/newspoll-minus-three-days-2/comment-page-15/#comments

    Generic Person
    Posted Saturday, February 7, 2009 at 10:12 pm post 740

    [Indeed, I hope we have the deepest ever recession to teach people that Keynesian economics is illogical nonsense.]

  21. But if we do have a severe recession, the government can just say that the opposition’s smaller stimulus package would’ve made it even worse!

    Turnbull kept saying it is going to take at least a decade to pay back the debt, but to me that implies he thinks the recession is going to be much worse than Treasury and the Government things. So he should really be advocating a bigger stimulus package, but he was advocating a smaller one.

    My point is, his position just doesn’t make much sense. At let’s remember, Keating won in 1993 with about 850,000 people unemployed. So I don’t buy the idea that bad economic times make it hard to win elections, just as 2007 shows that good times didn’t save Howard.

  23. [They also can’t be tied down to anything because as they put no amendments forward the Government won’t be able to turn around and say that what they’d proposed would’ve put us in a better position.]

    Not entirely. They did propose bringing tax cuts forward, and that’s about it. Then Julie Bishop proposed doing nothing as well.

  24. Surely Turnbull is going to have to start coming up with a policy or two. I don’t think he will have much success playing dead against a first term government.

    And the hilarious thing is, he can’t propose spending any money without completely contradicting himself. 😀

  25. [And the hilarious thing is, he can’t propose spending any money without completely contradicting himself.]

    Yes, his hands are tied there from now on

  27. [And the hilarious thing is, he can’t propose spending any money without completely contradicting himself. ]

    I suspect he’ll live in Malcolm World, where the package wasn’t passed, and thus he’ll ignore the $42b figure.

  28. [Apparently Minchin and Pyne argued the Libs should support the package.]

    That’s a strange duo, the only similarity being they’re from SA. Those two hate each other.

  29. Diogs,

    The horse “Self Interest” was running. Neither is particularly wanting to spend the rest of their political careers in opposition. Which is what they fear will be the consequence of the Turnbull strategy.

  31. [I wonder how much reaction there will be to the passing of the package, in the share market, today.]

    Market climbed steadily all day and finished up 1.1%

  33. “Turnbull WANTS and NEEDS a severe recession, because that is his only hope for winning in 2010”

    No its not , although thats his best hope ….but not only

    Irespective of a ‘recession’ , th conditions in 2010 will be Libs comparing there last Govt to Labor…
    Labor with a large Govt debt of 40 billion maybe plus billions vs Libs adds of that last Lib Govt had of surplus’s and also that 22 billion extra in futre fund

    labor with hogher unemployemtn maybe 6-7% by 2010 vs Libs adds of that last Lib Govt of only high 3%’s

    ..and a then unprovable (to th not fully informed masses) Libs adds that tax cuts that Libs wanted would hav lead to less unemploment and higher growth

    THIS I think is Libs strategy…and th worse econamic conditions ar like a recsion ..th stronger there pitch , but conditions will not be rosy anyways so pitch will be made with some bad backgrounds , so a deep recesion alone is not needed although pitch then wuld be stronger

    …and polls won’t be as wide as disynyland stuff polls gap now I think

  34. [The horse “Self Interest” was running. ]

    That’s a good horsie to back. Still, it begs the question if prominent member of the dry and wet sides could see their collective death approaching, why did the rest of the party follow Cossie like lemmings. I’m not fully buying Adam’s argument about the long-term strategy. It seems like a loser to me. Even if the economy tanks fast and big-time, the Ruddster and three other disparate groups did their best to stop it. No-ones buying the “lets bring the tax cuts in earlier” crap.

    Personally, I think Turnbull has lost the plot and the Libs should be reassessing how long they can keep Turnbull/Bishop in the two top jobs.

  35. There is no way anyone can predict what an election campaign in 2010 will be fought on.

    If your strategy is decided this far out from an election you could end up in deep poo. 😉

  36. [Apparently Minchin and Pyne argued the Libs should support the package]

    I doubt that Pyne supported the package. If you go by his article in the last edition of the Sunday Mail he certainly wasn’t in support of it. Unless of course he was spruiking the party line which would make him a complete hypocrite.

  37. I think Turnbull’s reasons for blocking the package were more immediate. He had to do something to please the right, they were starting to undermine him.

    Pyne was just changing tack to support his leader.

  38. Nick Minchin is a “very clever” politician. He is the “anyone but Turnbull” numbers man. What he did not say in the past two weeks speaks volumes.

  39. What an amazing 2 weeks we have just had. The floods in Northern QLD when half the State was still drought declared. The introduction of the 2nd Stimulus Package and the decision by the Coalition to oppose same. The Senate estimate committee quizzing Dr Henry and Dr Gruen re Stimulus Package where Abetz, Fielding and Joyce proving to the World that they have no idea regarding the economy. Then the tragedy of the worst Wildfire in our history. However even under trying times Australians have so far donated $70m to the fire victims, what a great effort goodonyas Aussies.
    To top it off the rejection in the Senate of the Stimulus package, which caused another show of ignorance and childishness by Hockey in the HoR. Then the passing of the said Bill practically untouched.
    Lucky we don’t have too many weeks like the last 2 weeks, although very exciting and emotionally exhausting.

  40. (138) Yes it is fascinating to see Minchin has totally disappeared, leaving arguably the Liberals most important Senate action in this term, and all that negotiating, to that personable deputy leader in the Senate Abetz.

  42. [I doubt that Pyne supported the package. If you go by his article in the last edition of the Sunday Mail he certainly wasn’t in support of it. Unless of course he was spruiking the party line which would make him a complete hypocrite.]

    Well of course he was spruiking the party line – what do you expect him to do? Oppose his leader in public? Many politicians, on both sides, are forced to espouse policies they don’t agree with, because that was the majority decision in their party room. That’s the nature of politics. Anyway, there’s a difference between “supporting the package” and arguing against the tactic of opposing it outright. I doubt Minchin and Pyne said in the party room that the Labor government’s package is wonderful, let’s support it. What they probably said is that the package will be very popular and we would be mad to oppose it outright.

  43. [has even called for another one later this year]

    I hope it’s not needed. Would hate to go through all this all over again. Mr X might really cut loose and cause most of Labor’s front bench to go grey.

  48. Rudd can counteract Turnbull’s debt train at the next election by resurrecting Howard’s debt truck with the amount on it of what the overseas debt was when Howard took over and what it is now,

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 24
1 2 3 4 … 24