Morgan: 60-40

Morgan’s second poll in consecutive weeks shows a big stimulus package bounce to Labor, albeit one following a dip in the earlier survey. Labor’s primary vote is up five points to 51.5 per cent, and its two-party lead has widened from 56-44 to 60-40. The Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent, and the Greens are steady on 8 per cent.

UPDATE (14/2): Today’s West Australian has a Westpoll survey of 403 respondents in WA showing federal Labor leading 55-45, after trailing 51-49 in October. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister has increased from 54-35 to 63-22. The result in WA at the 2007 election was about 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour.

• Today’s passage of the fiscal stimulus package through the Senate will probably take the heat out of early election speculation, but don’t let that stop you reading Antony Green‘s overview of the procedural and constitutional hurdles.

• This website has been dutifully reporting on Tasmania’s periodic upper house elections sice 2004, so it’s a great pleasure to report that this year’s will actually be interesting for a change. For this we can thank Harry Quick, formerly the maverick Labor member for the federal seat of Franklin, has announced he will nominate for Greens preselection to take on Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird in his Hobart seat of Derwent.

• Yesterday was the anniversary of the first sitting of the current parliament, which means the Electoral Commissioner has presumably conducted his determination of the number of House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to. As head counters will be aware, this will mean the initiation of redistribution processes in Queensland and New South Wales, which will respectively gain and lose a seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,154 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  2. [backquote]Maybe i’m just superstitious, but it doesn’t sit right with me that the $42 billion economic stimulus package passed on Friday the 13th.[/backquote]

    I’m fine with it. The origin of Friday the 13th being a bad day is that was the date that the Templars were put to death. The Templars were bankers…Turnbull is a banker. So I see it as quite poetic: the Templars died just as Turnbull’s political career is about to die 🙂

  3. The BBC has reported the passing of the stimulus package as big (positive) news:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7887517.stm

    They report Turnbull’s opposition then add:

    “But business leaders had expressed their frustration at the Senate’s earlier rejection of the stimulus plan.

    “No other nation’s parliament has refused a major stimulus package in the current environment of unprecedented global economic downturn,” said the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.”

  5. [No other nation’s parliament has refused a major stimulus package in the current environment]

    It’s probably because the Liberals are the world’s worst losers.

  6. bob1234, yes, the old BBC News. A couple of days ago they had an article which stated that 10,000 housed had been destroyed in Victoria.

    Our own OZ is just as bad. This is just totally incorrect or at least misleading.

    [KEY crossbench Senator Nick Xenophon will support the Government’s economic stimulus package after winning more than $2 billion in funding for the Murray-Darling Basin.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25048788-5013871,00.html

  8. Did anyone notice during the indulgence speeches that the Liberals made 5 points of order, yet when Turnbull was speaking there were none.

    I think that sums up the week.

  11. #58
    Since they’ve been on that side of the House most of their points of order have been on relevance. In question time they seem outraged that Rudd, or whoever, is drifting off the topic of the question. Does anyone remember Howard answering questions?

  12. In government they abused parliamentary process under the disgraceful speaker, David Hawker. In opposition they loutishly disrupt process. As I said, bad losers. Born-to-rule boofheads.

  13. [Does anyone remember Howard answering questions?]
    No.
    [In government they abused parliamentary process under the disgraceful speaker, David Hawker. ]
    One of the ironies of the Howard government is that the last speaker was the worst.

  14. Irony means something that you’d not expect.

    I’d expect the speakers of the Howard government to get worse as the terms progressed.

  15. [I’d expect the speakers of the Howard government to get worse as the terms progressed.]
    Yeah I guess so, they eventually run out of dead wood pseudo statesmen types to take on the role.

  17. If Morgan had continued with its usual two weekend tally, it would have shown from a sample of 1700:

    ALP 49  LNP  36.75  GR  8  OTH 6.25  TPP 58/42

    A lot like the last Newspoll on Tuesday

    ALP 48  LNP  36  GR 9  OTH  7   TPP  58/42

  18. [Technically and legally, Rudd and Wong could shaft Mr X as the concessions they made to him are not written into any bill.]
    But Xenophon tabled that letter from the Treasurer in the Senate, so if the Government pikes out on the deal, wouldn’t that mean the Treasurer misled the Senate?

    Either way, it would be political suicide.

  20. What the blazes would The Australian be bothered to go to so much trouble to unearth niotes & briefings on Rudd’s sorry speech.

    Maybe they are hoping to do him some damage. Did they go to such trouble with Howard’s speeches or even Nelson’s sorry effort. What a poor excuse for a newspaper.

    [Having promised the apology in the lead-up to the 2007 election, the Prime Minister sent the bureaucracy into a frenzy, with officials keen to advise him not only on the words he should use but also on the timing and circumstances of the speech.

    Mr Rudd relied heavily on departmental briefs and office notes, which The Australian has sought to obtain under Freedom of Information laws. While the full range of background material has yet to be released, The Australian is able to publish selected documents to mark the first anniversary. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25047318-5013871,00.html

  21. Why would The Australian bother? They have to denigrate the PM because their guy has just taken a mega-hit. It’s the same modus operandi from the 2006 election campaign – don’t attack the policy, especially if you haven’t any feasible alternative, just mudsling.

  23. I find this confusing:
    [References to compensation were deleted from the documents released under FOI. ]
    How exactly do they know what was deleted from the documents?

  24. [
    Technically and legally, Rudd and Wong could shaft Mr X as the concessions they made to him are not written into any bill.
    ]
    But politically “courageous”. On the other hand, it’d be amusing if Senator Fielding spat the dummy and refused to support them. 😉

  26. [There’s nothing that the Australian wouldn’t do to try to denigrate Rudd, Labor or any of their policies.]
    I don’t think it matters, their circulation is lower than nearly all of the News Ltd tabloids. If any papers shape public opinion, its those, not The Oz.

  27. [How exactly do they know what was deleted from the documents?]

    With a lot of the stuff that comes out under FOI, you can often tell the subject of what is being talked about when it’s all blacked out, you just cant see exactly what they were saying about it.

  28. [have to say though it’s a pretty big historical document.]

    Yeah, Grog, but I was wondering just what sort of game they were playing using FoI etc to backtrack on the process leading up to the final draft of the speech.

    Something smells a bit about the whole thing. What exactly are they looking to achieve by this. Surely there are more important things to investigate looking for a story?

  30. Mansell, who is Ron’s least favourite indigenous activist, still isn’t overly chirpy with the state of Aboriginal affairs. To be fair to him, Rudd’s Government hasn’t exactly been overburdened with achievements in the field.

    [“Any criticism of Mr Rudd’s neglect to address Aboriginal issues is met with the stock Government response that it gave the apology.

    “The apology has provided the Rudd Government with a political shield against criticism of its failures in Aboriginal affairs.” ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25049084-5005962,00.html

  31. Whatever happened to the statement Rudd promised to give to the parliament at the start of each year on progress on Indigenous issues?

  35. [The bushfires occurred after the start of the sitting year]

    Yes and it had been postponed from the start of the year to coincide with the day of the apology last year, which would have been two days ago I think

  37. Adam, what’s the story with this Michael Costa character?

    Has he joined the Libs? He seems to be on a vendetta against his previous collegues and the Rudd Government.

    Virtually on a daily basis he has an article published in the Oz and appears to be passing himself off as some sort of financial guru or all-knowing, expert. Keeting & Costello appear to be well and truly knocked off their respective perches.

  39. [Has he joined the Libs? He seems to be on a vendetta against his previous collegues and the Rudd Government.]
    I’m not surprised he is pissed off considering he and Costa were sacked due to John Robertson’s self interest.

  40. [I’ve been told that the unfudged raw health data and imprisonment rates aren’t going to be anything to write home about.]
    Sadly I don’t think we can expect much after 1 year. There are huge problems which will take ages to fix.

  41. Adam in Canberra:
    In the previous topic you mentioned that 400,000 hectares in Victoria had had fuel reduction carried out in the past 3 years. Have you got a cite or website somewhere that has that information? Would be interested in reading it.

    Ta.

  44. I read on an ABC blog that the Liberals have copied their “saddling our children with debt” shtick from the tories in the UK. Does anyone know more about this?

  50. My understanding was even if the Government didn’t spend an extra cent, the budget would be $22 billion in deficit this year.

    And of course that was before the bushfire compensation compensation was set up.

    I’m just sick of the stupid argument that we had a choice.

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