Morgan: 59.5-40.5

Morgan’s latest fortnightly face-to-face poll shows a one point narrowing in the two-party gap from 60-40 to 59.5-40.5. Labor is down one point on the primary vote to 50.5 per cent while the Coalition is up one to 36 per cent. Elsewhere:

• Not sure how much of this is news, but there’s a lot of good stuff on the Western Australian Electoral Commission site: veteran academic Harry Phillips’ 149-page Electoral Law in the State of Western Australia: An Overview; Isla Macphail’s 388-page Highest Privilege
and Bounden Duty: A Study of Western Australian Parliamentary Elections 1829–1901; and comprehensive survey data on various aspects of the September state election.

• AAP reports that Jennifer Huppert, a lawyer with the firm Maddocks and “long-time Labor moderate”, has been “unanimously endorsed” by Labor’s national executive to replace Evan Thornley in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan. A “senior Labor source” quoted in the report says “Ms Huppert was the Premier’s pick, chosen from four women candidates selected by Federal MP Michael Danby and state Treasurer John Lenders”. The Herald Sun earlier reported that “a list of six names – four women and two men – had been submitted to the Labor Party’s national executive”, with the Left-aligned Laura Smyth named as frontrunner.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that a looming split in the Right of the Victorian ALP could produce “another round of bloody winner-takes-all preselections replete with branch-stacking, brawls and backstabbing”. The next Victorian opinion poll will be interesting to observe, given the stresses the present heatwave has placed on Melbourne’s infrastructure.

• Malcolm Mackerras muses on the recent history of by-elections and upper house vacancies in the Canberra Times.

• Annual financial disclosure returns for 2007-08 can be viewed at the Australian Electoral Commission site (UPDATE: … from Monday – thanks to Ruawake for pointing that out).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

614 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. • Annual financial disclosure returns for 2007-08 can be viewed at the Australian Electoral Commission site.

    From next Monday. 🙂

  2. The ALP *national* executive selecting the replacement to the *Victorian* upper house is a disgrace. As the Proportional Representation Society of Australia pointed out, it’s the first time since the 1850s that Victorians haven’t chosen who sits in their own parliament. It should’ve been done via count-back, or by a ballot of Victorian ALP members, or as a last resort, by Victorian hacks in the ALP.

    It’s the Victorian parliament, it’s supposed to represent the people of Victoria.

  6. I note that ‘oily’ is OK , but that my own self creatd “adjective” (o…) as clearly defined in my #440 is now banned

    IF I’d added a ‘y’ at th word end after ‘ness’ to make it ‘nessy’ , some posters arguing noun vs adjective wuld look fairly foolish , but then logic was never objecton basis anyway , over- partisienship was

    Ironicly banned at th same time was th word KKK , where I had been 3 times th abusee…and where no poster had previously objected to its use at all

    Also ironicly , it was that very KKK Site that I’d allegedly visited , that I was smeered with as having KKK tendencies , and that Site was ALSO used as a depraved sourse for th ‘o…’word as well that finaly lead to a ban … th double rewards of smeer

    Irespective completely of th above , GB Tom and othrs you got your inconsistent partisin “Obama” standards made ‘law’ on your selective tech view of my dialect , hope you ar happy now if you define that as being hapy ……a hollow ‘victory’ indeed for ‘your libertarien standards’ vs my dialec’s opposition

    I’ll stick to my principals thanks , at least they ar consistant

  7. ruawake @ 4

    True. But why stop with the state upper houses? Get rid of the states and territory lower houses while you are at it. They are sandpits for the mediocre.

  8. Ron, like I said, “oiliness” has been banned under the tedious nicknames provision. It might have happened earlier, but I hadn’t noticed until now that you (and others) were doing it. There might be a certain unpleasant irony to the fact that Gusface’s drivel helped draw my attention to the fact, but such is life I’m afraid.

    While I’m here, I’m going to throw “Talcum” on to the fire as well. It’s stupid.

  9. An interesting question arises from the Morgan poll. It relates to the juxtaposition of the ‘consumer confidence’ and ‘heading in the right direction’ polling figures with party polling figures. Both ‘consumer confidence’ and ‘heading in the right direction’ have received some attention at Poll Bludger in previous threads. In particular, Possum did some sums and came out with a significant positive relationship between consumer confidence figures and voting patterns. There has also been much qualitative discussion about the ‘heading in the right direction’ question with most of the discussion on this blog being disparaging.

    In this bout of polling, there are significant downward movements in both, which the party polling does not match. The question is: ‘Will either turn out to have value in predicting a decline in Labour figures in coming polls?’

  10. Boerwar

    The way to do it is for larger – regionally focused Local Govt.

    But of course the Conservatives would not support the referendum to enshrine Local Govt in the Constitution – releasing them from State Govt. control.

    Twits.

  12. I was about to ask “who’s Talcum” then I realised… bit slow tonight… Ban them all William. (though “rainmaker” surely deserves a bit of mercy due to it’s now being enshrined in Hansard)

  14. William, many thanks for your impartiality. As to the KKK references, I agree that they were ‘unfortunate’. Ron, there is nothing wrong with my principles and neither am I arrogant enough to question another posters principals on this site. For instance, I disagree with many of the things that Glen and Generic Person state on this forumn, but that is neither reason nor excuse for me to pass judgement upon them. What makes you think you have the divine right to do so?
    Tom

  16. Rua then the Libs were stupid for just making it a Sydney Channel (D44).

    How can parliament and public affairs be on Pay TV anyway it ought to be free…

  19. They be good Articles William; a Bill of Rights if you will. No doubt Janet A will soon write a column about how you are a terrible judge who should leave laws up to policitians.

  21. Glen

    D44 licences will be allocated this year, then the broadcast will be available to all. But given the broadcast is owned by Foxtel and Austar its a miracle it will be free to air.

  23. 🙁 Conroy had better get them to buckle…but then i guess keeping the public informed on what they get up to is the last thing they all want in Caberra and elsewhere…

  24. Glen

    It was a result of the 20-20 summit.

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has hailed the launch of a new public affairs television network as a good move for Australia’s democracy.

    Sky News, Foxtel and Austar have joined together to launch A-Span, a new public affairs television network and an initiative of the Federal Government’s 2020 Summit.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/08/2440386.htm

    But of course the 20-20 summit was a talk fest with no results.

    Glen – I like you, but you really do put your foot in it too often. 😉

  26. “How can parliament and public affairs be on Pay TV anyway it ought to be free…”

    The ABC is still working on plans to have their own public affairs channel. However, making the case for funding is going to harder now there’s one that’s being provided FTA.

  27. Glen #16
    Posted Friday, January 30, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    “… the Libs were stupid …”

    Good on you Glen. Looks like you are starting to see the light.

  29. After the mess Alston and Coonan made with digital TV and datacasting I think that Liberal Party supporters may consider taking a low profile on the issue – instead of demanding Mr Rudd do something that could have happened in 2000.

    Glen how many licences were bought in 2000 when they were first put up for sale? ZERO – well done Libs. 🙁

  30. Rua i knew that it came out of the 2020 summit but they should have pushed for it to be free-to-air…as yet a good idea not yet followed through well atm…we’ll see…

    Grog sure i could get FOXTEL but what about all the people who havent got the money for it???

  31. Glen i agree with you on this one but it strikes me to be a fairly ‘left-wing’ argument you are making. “But what about all the people who haven’t got the money for it?” I can’t imagine a conservative making that argument all to often even though i think it is the correct one to make.

  32. “Grog sure i could get FOXTEL but what about all the people who havent got the money for it???”

    Socialised television but cut backs on public spending in health, education and transport? Nice to see where the priorities lie.

  33. thewetmale but the point is more about access to information and trying to get the public more interested and involved in politics and the political process not the mention the educational benefits of such a tool…

    thewetmale i think it has less to do with left or right issues the questions are A do we want the public to have access to such information and B will it be of a benefit to our political process…i think it will and neither lefties or conservatives could argue against that…

  34. Glen
    Makes sense to me especially your first paragraph. Out of interest how far do you go, if you were to change “access to information” to “access to services” (such as public health, transport, education?) How do you define ‘benefit to our political process/society’.

  35. [the political process not the mention the educational benefits of such a tool…]

    You know what else has an educational benefit? Schools!

    I’m being mean.

  36. As far as i am concerned too many young people know nothing about politics or the political process and decide how to vote based on trivial things…this has a lot to do with education….

    Oz im saying the channel has benefits for Students learning politics and legal studies…

  37. [Oz im saying the channel has benefits for Students learning politics and legal studies…]

    I know, I’m just being annoying. I apologise.

    [As far as i am concerned too many young people]

    I reckon a lot of older people too.

  38. Yes Oz

    That’s the trouble with politics because only 25% of the population (probably less) actually have some understanding of the issues and make an informed decision how to cast their ballots on election day…how sad 🙁

  39. William – appreciate your Standing Orders. IRony and humour always better than name calling. As you have observed there will be a need for regular revision which could turn into Collected Works and Standing Orders over time.

  44. Hi Bill

    Looks like a road to Damascus conversion for you, quite a change.

    As for Rudd, he is not the saviour and he is not just a very naughty boy, I still hold out out that he will achieve great things.

    Still with YRAW?, I notice they are keeping Rudd on his toes re the winding back of WorkChoices,.

  45. sorry about the spelling. Yes i have had a big change in my outlook and will be voting for the party that supports my views. No due to YR@W back stabbing i am not with them but have been re elected as a shop steward for the AMWU

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