Morgan: 59.5-40.5

Morgan’s latest fortnightly face-to-face poll shows a one point narrowing in the two-party gap from 60-40 to 59.5-40.5. Labor is down one point on the primary vote to 50.5 per cent while the Coalition is up one to 36 per cent. Elsewhere:

• Not sure how much of this is news, but there’s a lot of good stuff on the Western Australian Electoral Commission site: veteran academic Harry Phillips’ 149-page Electoral Law in the State of Western Australia: An Overview; Isla Macphail’s 388-page Highest Privilege
and Bounden Duty: A Study of Western Australian Parliamentary Elections 1829–1901
; and comprehensive survey data on various aspects of the September state election.

• AAP reports that Jennifer Huppert, a lawyer with the firm Maddocks and “long-time Labor moderate”, has been “unanimously endorsed” by Labor’s national executive to replace Evan Thornley in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan. A “senior Labor source” quoted in the report says “Ms Huppert was the Premier’s pick, chosen from four women candidates selected by Federal MP Michael Danby and state Treasurer John Lenders”. The Herald Sun earlier reported that “a list of six names – four women and two men – had been submitted to the Labor Party’s national executive”, with the Left-aligned Laura Smyth named as frontrunner.

Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that a looming split in the Right of the Victorian ALP could produce “another round of bloody winner-takes-all preselections replete with branch-stacking, brawls and backstabbing”. The next Victorian opinion poll will be interesting to observe, given the stresses the present heatwave has placed on Melbourne’s infrastructure.

• Malcolm Mackerras muses on the recent history of by-elections and upper house vacancies in the Canberra Times.

Annual financial disclosure returns for 2007-08 can be viewed at the Australian Electoral Commission site (UPDATE: … from Monday – thanks to Ruawake for pointing that out).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

614 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. credit is fine as a tool just don’t over eat it , that 700 billion of yours created consumer purchases , which created business growth & jobs which generated taxes to build schools & hospitals !.

    ….servicing capacity to income shares basicaly ok , although perhaps some regulaton on credit card limits criteria wuldn’t go astray system works , fine tuning always needs some oil thats all …just none came in last 12 years which created propery boom with neg gearing/capital tax changes

  2. It may look like i made a connection but my sentence was about financial deregulation and its merits.
    I will say this again, why was their throughout the postwar period to the mid to late 70’s a significant period of economic growth, low unemployment and moderate to low inflation throughout the free world and many people in fulltime employment and not this casual rubbish. Keynes economics and governments willing to invest and own companies. We need to go back to such policies and this stupid fetish with bonus schemes, free trade, surplus budgets, and so on. Government debt is the cheapest form of debt when will we wake up?

  3. Marky Marky , we can not compete with Asia on ‘price’ of Labor wages , Japan was king , then it had to upscale its jobs & exports , then South Korea was king , now its changin , now China is king , it will hav to upscale in time also …so our econamy has changed upscaled

    Marky Marky , if you stay still th bus will just run u over So yes fair trade allows us to export $$$ fairly farmers , steel etc and that creates a Countrys net wealth , and yes diferent job creatd from yesteryear in skill areas ..don’t forget with bigerworkforse after 20 years of cheap imports outr unemployment is 4.5% , so rest is better skilled than before

  4. Yep and who will pay it back? Private debt is bad because you pay at a higher rate of interest, than government debt which is generally cheaper.
    Yep and all the debt has made us a better nation… Our infrastructure is aging and our commuications system a mess.

  5. Marky Marky

    “Yep and who will pay it back? Private debt is bad because you pay at a higher rate of interest, than government debt which is generally cheaper.”

    you ar confusing th 2 debts , you were talking 70 billion of consumer type credit debt and I said there were plus’s in that…so whats wrong with that debt ?…. it creates creates demand then growth then jobs then tax revenues then money to
    bulild schools hospitals and for our defense

    Now you’re switiching talkin about govt debt , diferent issue , Keating left a 96 billion debt , it was cheap money for National building …whats wrong with that ?
    Well what was wrong is Libs don’t like cheap Govt debt so paid it out instead of infrastucture building , shipping , schools etc etc

    Now with Rudds in pilot , Keynes is back in town…debt will be used for our worn out infrastuctures But thats diferent to plastic consumer money , altough credit limit crierias could do tightening , so don’t agree credit is bad at all

    then that supa bit against Keating , great reform , and whose money wnt into it , for alot of employees its Keatings 9& of EMPLOYERS moneis & underdtansd Supa markets go in cycles , its doen but will come up , eventuals

  6. And now if ant to talk th 3rd form of debt finacincing these PPP’s , well they;’re rotten like Toll deels as payback over th 25 years cost diferential wuldn’t equate to aleged eficiencys etc gained and some State Govts scared to tditch them & use there AAAA rating debt instead Now I don’t like this type of crude financial engineering

  7. SNIP: Self-indulgent whinge deleted – The Management.

    • • 469
    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, February 2, 2009 at 3:46 pm | Permalink
    “…..Canada and the US ban donations from corporations…..”

    US ? , perhaps technically…. How do feel Obama raised 600 million “privately’ ?

  8. Frank @ 604

    At least Princess Margaret Hospital is at the top of the list for the project to go ahead. Troy Buswell said so even before September 6.

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