Super size me

I guess we’re not getting a Morgan poll tomorrow, so a stand-alone post is required to note recent developments. To wit:

• Antony Green has crunched the numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest state and territory population figures and concluded that yet another new seat will need to be created in Queensland next year, again at the expense of New South Wales. Queensland will thus have boomed from 26 seats to 30 in little over a decade, having earlier gained Blair in 1998, Bonner in 2004 and Flynn in 2007. New South Wales lost Gwydir in 2007.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that the finalised new federal boundaries for Western Australia will be gazetted on December 18, and maps published henceforth.

• Possum reckons “it’s time to rethink political demographics&#148, and explains why across a two-part epic here and here.

• A constitutional crisis is brewing in Canada that has some excited observers invoking the example of Australia in 1975. The election on October 14 saw Stephen Harper’s Conservative minority government re-elected, but again requiring the support of Bloc Québécois. However, Bloc Québécois has now signed an accord with the Liberal Party and leftist New Democrats due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the financial crisis. Harper reportedly plans to ask that Governor-General Michaëlle Jean prorogue the parliament so it will not sit until the budget is presented in January. This would avert a sitting on December 8 at which Harper’s government would likely be defeated on a no-confidence motion, and allow him time to pick apart the Liberal-Bloc-NDP deal. This raises the question of whether Jean ought to grant a prorogation to a Prime Minister who might not have the confidence of the House.

UPDATE (5/12/08): Jean agrees to prorogue parliament until January 26. Ben Raue at The Tally Room expresses his displeasure, and proposes reforms to the appointment of prime ministers (citing the practice in the Australian Capital Territory), the scheduling of parliament and the timing elections. I am a little more sympathetic to Jean’s decision, on account of the Liberals’ evident state of disarray – although I can buy the idea that it’s not the Governor-General’s role to make such judgements.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,278 comments on “Super size me”

Comments Page 23 of 26
1 … 22 23 24 … 26

  1. [So the Queen can’t just dismiss the British PM, unlike the situation here with the GG. ]

    Socrates, I don’t think this is the case. What is your evidence for this assertion?

    [Do you mean that the King’s son will become active in politics once his dad dies?]

    No, I mean that royal meddling, which lies behind all of Thailand’s current troubles, will no longer be as acceptable once Bhumipon is gone. The Crown Prince has no popular respect at all.

  2. ShwsOn and Adam

    My apology. I cannot find such a rule on dismissal of the PM. There are a number of documents which list conventions but they are opinions and hence fail ShowsOn’s test of beign a law. The statutes I referred to cover the authority of the parliament, but not the PM. Mea culpa. It seems there is an ongoing debate to reform this, but it still hasn’t been resolved in the latest Constitutional Reform Bill.

  3. Talking about Hitler and the Internet, the new Nobel Prize winner for literature, says WWII may have been averted if the internet was around then.

    [The spread of information on the Internet has given the world a new tool to forestall conflicts, Nobel literature prize winner Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio said Sunday.

    In his Nobel lecture to the Swedish Academy, the 68-year-old Frenchman said an earlier introduction of information technology could even have prevented World War II.

    “Who knows, if the Internet had existed at the time, perhaps Hitler’s criminal plot would not have succeeded – ridicule might have prevented it from ever seeing the light of day,” he said.]

    http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081207/D94U21DG0.html

  4. [My apology. I cannot find such a rule on dismissal of the PM. There are a number of documents which list conventions but they are opinions and hence fail ShowsOn’s test of beign a law. The statutes I referred to cover the authority of the parliament, but not the PM. Mea culpa. It seems there is an ongoing debate to reform this, but it still hasn’t been resolved in the latest Constitutional Reform Bill.]
    I’m happy to concede that if the Queen ever did sack a P.M. without a very good reason it would end up in court.

  5. ShowsOn

    Agreed. The situation might get clearer when the 2008 Constitutional Reform Bill goes through, because that is better setting out the differences between Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches. But even then, it would probably need a precedent defining case.

    I still agree Australia’s situtation is a mess. We have alrady had one GG act in contradiction of the convention, so it really needs to be fixed with a new constitutiona dn defined reserve powers. From my reading, the Irish did a reasonably good job of defining them

  6. Truffles is still whining plaintively. He decides, yet again, that all the economists are wrong and that tax cuts are the way to go. Shades of that other economic genius Hillary Clinton.

    [But Malcolm Turnbull suggested today the generous handouts would have been better delivered as tax cuts – an idea dismissed today by senior economists, who believe it is more likely to be spent if it is a one-off hit.

    “In a climate like this people are very much inclined to save one-off payments like this,” the Opposition Leader told the Fairfax Radio Network. “This is an economic equivalent of a one-off sugar hit.”

    “If you want a more effective fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, across the board tax cuts, particularly targeted at lower and middle-income earners, are going to have a greater impact.

    “People will see them as being permanent, they’ll seem them as encouraging work, to invest, to hire people and so forth,” Mr Turnbull said.]

    Kevin Rudd’s ‘sugar hit’ windfall won’t last: Turnbull
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24767239-601,00.html

  8. Diogenes

    #999
    “Ron , people who enjoy watching child porn are paedophiles by definition.”
    This is false

    Law enforcement terminology according to Wiki is defined as “the term ‘pedophile’ is generally used to describe those accused or convicted of the sexual abuse of a minor (including both prepubescent children and adolescent minors younger than the local age of consent).”

    So throwing mud at me , because I call some Libertarians sick for believing any person should be able to watch anything in there homes including child porn , is indecent and whilst may get support on this politcaly correct site , but will cut no mustard in general community where I’m in th overwhelming majority and yous lot ar an irelevant minority

    Not only is th definition I supplied used by law enforcement , itis ALSO th colloquial understanding definition in th community….so your libertarian word games again hav support here , but not in community Whilst there ar also psychological & medical usages , both Layers , police and th common man know th definition is of these disgusting types , and its as I’ve listed

    Some branchs of Libertarians seem over sensitive to criticism of even these libertarians , but protest too much .. much much too much , but public majority unlike most here , will not give a st.ff about about of internet censorship as they’d prefer instead automatically internet child porn blocked , and I’m with thems

    STEVEN CONROY about said “if you don’t responsibly support the internet filter then you support child paedophiles”……Conroy is quite correct , conceptualy Practical effect of no effective internet filter is precisely that , conceptualy Instead of squawking here , this conceptual should not be forgotton Unfortunately Steven Conroy’s words were foolishly loose…he did NOT mean all oponents ar child paedophile supporters at all , only that th practical consequence of selfish ISP’s/extremist libertarians , scare campaigns on legit secret Sites list without aking for proper governance , and cherry picking loopholes instead of suggesting solutions does NOT help these innocent child victims at all , they unwittingly prolong th agony , and crimes….and he has truthfully said so Not very diplomatic of Conroy in this and furthermore quite wrong of Conroy to make that assertion so wide that innocent genuine filter opponents unfairly also got th slur & foolishley uniting them with less responsible opponents Conroy should hav been and believe was seeking constructive responsible feedback …but not from those who hav an “agenda”

    However before people worry about ‘hurt’ feelings th dears , Conroys ‘solution’ should be supported to save th victims with only queston on his proposal 1/ tech capacity & speeds 2/ independent oversite of th selected Sites & makning there nature/scope specified 3/ whether politcaly it will pass…tink Mr X & Fielding & most Nats will support it makning it a cliffhanger & Libs in a loss loss political quandary if they oppose unless they hav an overwhelming convinsing tech argument

  9. [Agreed. The situation might get clearer when the 2008 Constitutional Reform Bill goes through, because that is better setting out the differences between Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches. But even then, it would probably need a precedent defining case.]
    Come to think of it, a court may say that it simply doesn’t have the power to determine the legality of the Queen’s actions.

  10. Ron

    You have selectively used one definition of paedophile. Wiki uses mine for psychology. And Wiki says:

    [In common usage, the term refers to any adult who is sexually attracted to children or who sexually abuses a child.]

    Whereas you say:

    [and th common man know th definition is of these disgusting types] which is incorrect. The common usage of pedophile includes anyone attracted sexually to kids.

    So I’m right yet again. 😀
    I’m concerned by some of your other arguments.

    [where I’m in th overwhelming majority and yous lot ar an irelevant minority]

    That’s a false appeal to majority.

    [Conroy’s “if you don’t responsibly support the internet filter then you support child paedophiles”]

    That’s a straw man argument.

  11. The Chinese is not the only guilty party.

    [Tainted Irish pork may have reached 25 countries: official – Contaminated Irish pig meat may have been exported to up to 25 countries, Ireland’s chief vet has said, as shops at home and abroad cleared pork from their shelves amid fears of a cancer link. “We believe it’s in the order of 20 to 25 countries. It’s certainly less than 30,” Paddy Rogan said on Sunday in comments quoted by the Irish media. His remarks came after ministers Saturday ordered all pig meat products from the Republic of Ireland to be withdrawn as dioxins, which may cause cancer, were found in slaughtered pigs thought to have eaten contaminated feed.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/world/tainted-irish-pork-may-have-reached-25-countries-official-20081208-6to6.html

  12. Amazing to think that in 1980, 40% of Australian men aged over 18 smoked.

    In 2005, 77% and 67% respectively of the male adult populations of Yemen and China smoked.

    Interestingly, in 1999, the smoking rate among Spanish health professionals (38% – 49%) was higher than that for the general adult population (35.7%).

    This is from the British Medical Journal, 1999:

    Recent epidemiological studies have shown that the prevalence of smoking among health professionals in Spain ranges from 38% to 49%. Rates are higher among nurses than doctors; this is reflected in the fact that among health professionals the prevalence of smoking is higher in females than in males. Paradoxically, data from the latest national health survey indicate that rates of smoking are lower in the population as a whole than among health professionals. Statistics show that 35.7% of Spaniards older than 16 are current smokers (44.8% of males and 27.2% of females). But smoking rates are still comparatively high, with the rate in males being the second highest in the European Union after Greece (46%).

  14. Regarding the U.K modal, British has an unwritten constitution!! as a result of the English civil war the monarch has progessively conceded power to the parliament!

    I may be Incorrect but the Government is a creature of the Parliament and while it consults the Monarch, the Government does not need to heel before her Maj.

    Its way more fluident than the American system where the President and the Congress overlap with various checks and balances.

    Bascially and this is based on a hunch if there was a crisis in the commons the Queen can only become involved if she is invited to do so, there may be some sort of petition system or some other process that I am not aware off.

    I can’t recall there being a major crisis that has needed a Monarch to become involved, but i suspect if there was one and her Maj came out and called for an election I dealt the Government will ignore that advice.

  15. MB

    In a lot of things that is true, but not entirely for dismisal of the British PM. There are conventions not to do it, and written legal opinions that she wouldn’t, but no written law or statute I could find. Whereas most other aspects of the British constitution (Monarch must accept legislation passed, must not disolve parliament, must accept advice from parliament etc) are now written down. OTOH the calling elections one is writen down – the Queen must accept the advice of the House of Commons on when an election will be, otherwise it sticks to the four year terms.

  16. Dunno where the hell this one fits in with the filter. As Caroline O points out, the pictures of real naked 13 year olds by Henson are “art” but a sex cartoon of The Simpsons is kiddie porn.

    [CARTOON characters are people too, a judge has ruled in the case of a man convicted over cartoons based on The Simpsons, in which children are shown having sex.

    In the New South Wales Supreme Court today, Justice Michael Adams ruled that a fictional cartoon character was a “person” within the meaning of the relevant state and commonwealth laws.
    Cartoon porn kids are people, judge says in Simpsons porn case]

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24767202-2,00.html

  18. Thanks William. There is quite an Ouch! factor there for Julie Bishop, with only 46% of Coalition supporters preferring her as PM compared to Gillard. A pretty good poll trend for Labor to finish the year on, regardless of debaets over methodology and the absolute numbers. It would be interesting to know how much of the sample was logged before the Senate vote fiasco.

  19. [Dunno where the hell this one fits in with the filter. As Caroline O points out, the pictures of real naked 13 year olds by Henson are “art” but a sex cartoon of The Simpsons is kiddie porn.]

    Perhaps there is a difference in that one portrayed actual sexual acts?

  20. [Australian politics will also be shown overseas on the C-SPAN channel and the new channel will also be available online and on a free-to-air basis. Coverage from the British House of Commons, the New Zealand Parliament and US politics will be available.]
    [The chief executive of Sky News, Angelo Frangopoulos, said A-SPAN would be available on pay TV from January 20. He expected it would initially be available on free-to-air digital TV only in Sydney.]

    Only on free to air digital in Sydney! First Roy & H.G. now this! How hard is it to add this in to the ABC2 multiplex!?

    S.A. gets screwed out of everything.

  21. I suggest people read the methodology section at the end. I’m not so sure there is anything to complain about re bias as some have suggested here.

  24. Dario

    Is it an “actual sexual act” if it’s cartoon characters? I think I’ve got an image based on The Wizard of Oz that needs deleting!

  27. [Is it an “actual sexual act” if it’s cartoon characters? I think I’ve got an image based on The Wizard of Oz that needs deleting!]

    The law regarding child porn is pretty vague and comes down to the intent of what was being created. From what I’ve read, the images were of children engaged in sex acts – quite clearly intended to be porn.

    But whether or not a drawing then constitutes child porn or not is a bit confusing.

    If I draw a couple of little stick figures getting it on have I just created child porn? What about alien children? Could it not be argued that the Simpsons, being yellow and highly unrealistic were not intended to be real people?

    Following on from that, The Simpson’s Movie itself contains a scene with Bart’s penis. Now presumably that wouldn’t fit the intention or context for child porn, but it is now legally on par with any image of naked children created for public consumption, like Bill Henson’s work.

  28. [What about alien children?]
    I would hope a court wouldn’t interpret “people” to mean aliens.
    [Could it not be argued that the Simpsons, being yellow and highly unrealistic were not intended to be real people?]
    Surely “people” have five digits on their hands. The Simpsons only have four.

    Believe it or not, the orgnisation that determines if something is child porn is the OFLC. The same organisation that classifies the latest Hollywood films.

    Why the same organisation is responsible for both of those activities I have no idea.

  29. [Surely “people” have five digits on their hands. The Simpsons only have four.]

    That’s what I’m saying. What is the definition of “people”?

    A stick figure drawn from flesh colour and with five fingers is a “person”?

  30. Well you can’t knock Turnbull for trying. He has criticised Rudd for adopting teh style of NSW Labor!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/08/2440756.htm?section=justin

    This is obviously just a smear. With Rudd’s support coming from Queensland, Victoria, and the left in NSW (via the Gillard deal) I would have thought he was the Labor leader least tied to the NSW Labor right for some years? Perhaps insiders know the truth of that better than me.

    As for style, he obviously manages the media closely, but so does every government these days. For personal and decision making/operating style I can’t even see that the comparison is even close to accurate. The constant bover boy tactics in NSW are a long way from Rudd’s work-a-holic calm speaking preference. I can’t see Rudd getting spotted drunk too many nights at Iguanas. Would anyone but died in the wool coalition supporters beleive this?

    Am I right in suspecting that Turnbull just wanted to fire some shots off today to distrct attention from the bonus payments going out? Like I said, at least he’s trying.

  31. What’s a real person?

    My Wizard of Oz picture is probably OK. The scarecrow, lion and tin-man are clearly not “real people”. Dorothy is still a problem.

  32. The whole thing is debatable of course, but there is a line somewhere in there where it becomes porn. The Simpsons are human-looking characters set in the USA so they’re close enough to resembling people IMO. If there are wiggly bits in action then it’s porn. You could spend years arguing it one way or the other. That’s just my take.

  33. [Am I right in suspecting that Turnbull just wanted to fire some shots off today to distrct attention from the bonus payments going out? Like I said, at least he’s trying.]

    Yep, I think so

  34. Sponge Bob is a sea sponge who wears square pants and lives in a pineapple under the sea. He is also a popular cartoon character who in 2005 drew the attention of various Christian intellectuals on account of his subversive operations as a “vehicle for pro-gay propaganda.”

    Sponge was implicitly condemned by groups such as Focus on the Family for performing sex acts on sponges of the same gender (notably, his friend Patrick, with whom he regularly held hands). It is not clear whether sea sponges who dwell in submarine pineapples actually possesses any genitalia (or other physical or psychological features) to identify them as belonging to one gender or another, but this, according to the theologians raising the mind contamination alarm, was thought to be irrelevant to the main charge.

  35. Except in the Arab world and in Thailand, monarchs only retain their thrones in the modern world if they refrain from meddling in politics.

    Adam, what about Bhutan, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Swaziland, and Tonga?

  36. [TORONTO AND OTTAWA — Toronto MP Michael Ignatieff launched a bulldozer charge at the federal Liberal leadership on Sunday, campaigning for the party’s parliamentary caucus to elect him immediately as an interim replacement for Stéphane Dion.

    Mr. Ignatieff’s organizers said Sunday night they had the support of at least 55 of the party’s 77 MPs, including Mr. Dion’s most vocal supporter, suburban Toronto MP Bryon Wilfert, and MP Maurizio Bevilacqua, who chaired the 2006 leadership campaign of Mr. Ignatieff’s major opponent, Bob Rae.]

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081207.wdion1207/BNStory/politics/home

    Ignatieff is apparently against the idea of a coalition. So it seems our dreams of Canada becoming a socialist paradise have been dashed.

    Also, Quebec goes to the polls tomorrow.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081207.wquebecelxn1207/BNStory/politics/home

  37. Diogenses

    “Wiki uses mine (definition) for psychology”

    Wiki uses mine (definition) of pediphiles for Law enforcement So don’t be selective

    You libertarians ar so far out of touch with th reel world , you actualy think people think of a psychology pediphile definition rather than Law enforcement police actions pediphiles description….of being accused/convicted of …

    You ar wrong…… again , you made an improper red herring post to be disengenuous just to defend one crazy branch of libertarians , and only succeeded in highliting how sick those particular brands of Libertarism ar

  38. [Am I right in suspecting that Turnbull just wanted to fire some shots off today to distrct attention from the bonus payments going out? Like I said, at least he’s trying.]
    Only mention of Turnbull on 10 news was him saying Govt should have given tax breaks instead of stimulus package.

    Inner westie
    Patrick isn’t a sponge he’s a fat pink starfish.

  39. Ron

    What part of “In common usage, the term refers to any adult who is sexually attracted to children or who sexually abuses a child” don’t you understand?

    I agree that any Libertarian who advocated for the freedom for legalising child porn would be seriously misguided. I haven’t met one yet.

  41. [You libertarians ar so far out of touch with th reel world , you actualy think people think of a psychology pediphile definition rather than Law enforcement police actions pediphiles description….of being accused/convicted of …]
    No, we just think words have actual meanings. You know, like the word “troll” for example.

  42. [Amigo Ronnie, how times now that poor Diog has been wrong? Should start a book on this.]
    He’s even wrong about being wrong apparently.

  43. Ahhh a televisual feast of the political kind tonight. The inside retelling of the howard governments 2007 demise on the “Howard years”… I shall be enjoying the cold ashes of the howard government with some fava beans and a nice chianti. ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff

  44. LOL Vera. Lucky I’m not a Christian scholar involved in this esoteric research …

    Exactly which manner a homosexual relationship is thought to exist between a sea sponge and a fat pink starfish eludes me. Clearly, I haven’t spent enough time closely reading the scriptures, because it is here, like so many other of the world’s puzzles, that the answer must surely lie …

  47. Showon,

    [He’s even wrong about being wrong apparently.]

    Trust me, this sounds to me like “Everything i tell you is a lie” logic.

  48. Finns

    I happily admit if I am wrong. It’s just that it’s never happened…

    You haven’t told me about China’s domestic auto industry and if they will follow in Korea’s footsteps and fill the US void.

  49. Mr. Hat, how do you have prepare your fava beans?

    I prefer mine stewed, with globe artichokes stuffed with bread crumbs, garlic, parsley and parmesan cheese in a mild tomato sauce.

    I concur with your choice of wine.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 23 of 26
1 … 22 23 24 … 26