Super size me

I guess we’re not getting a Morgan poll tomorrow, so a stand-alone post is required to note recent developments. To wit:

• Antony Green has crunched the numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest state and territory population figures and concluded that yet another new seat will need to be created in Queensland next year, again at the expense of New South Wales. Queensland will thus have boomed from 26 seats to 30 in little over a decade, having earlier gained Blair in 1998, Bonner in 2004 and Flynn in 2007. New South Wales lost Gwydir in 2007.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that the finalised new federal boundaries for Western Australia will be gazetted on December 18, and maps published henceforth.

• Possum reckons “it’s time to rethink political demographics&#148, and explains why across a two-part epic here and here.

• A constitutional crisis is brewing in Canada that has some excited observers invoking the example of Australia in 1975. The election on October 14 saw Stephen Harper’s Conservative minority government re-elected, but again requiring the support of Bloc Québécois. However, Bloc Québécois has now signed an accord with the Liberal Party and leftist New Democrats due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the financial crisis. Harper reportedly plans to ask that Governor-General Michaëlle Jean prorogue the parliament so it will not sit until the budget is presented in January. This would avert a sitting on December 8 at which Harper’s government would likely be defeated on a no-confidence motion, and allow him time to pick apart the Liberal-Bloc-NDP deal. This raises the question of whether Jean ought to grant a prorogation to a Prime Minister who might not have the confidence of the House.

UPDATE (5/12/08): Jean agrees to prorogue parliament until January 26. Ben Raue at The Tally Room expresses his displeasure, and proposes reforms to the appointment of prime ministers (citing the practice in the Australian Capital Territory), the scheduling of parliament and the timing elections. I am a little more sympathetic to Jean’s decision, on account of the Liberals’ evident state of disarray – although I can buy the idea that it’s not the Governor-General’s role to make such judgements.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,278 comments on “Super size me”

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  1. Has the Canadian GG given any indication of a time frame for her to decide this matter? One would think sooner rather than later if the looming no confidence vote is to otherwise happen on the 8th …..

  2. Is there any precedent for a Governor or Governor-General refusing to follow the advice of the Prime Minister in the absence of a no-confidence vote?

  3. If we want Fielding to be marginalised, what about that nutter Bidgood? Not only does he sell his photos of the petrol covered protester, he turn out to certifiably insane. If we’re in “end times” why bother running for parliament? Evidently the GFC is an act of God.

    [We have to say ‘What would Jesus do?’,” he says.

    “In 1987 there was another march for Jesus. That took place in April. And guess what happened in October 1987? The stock market crashed. All property values lost one third of their value and over a million people lost their homes.

    “I believe when Christians pray, God does things. I believe what is happening today is as much to do with God in economics bringing judgement.”

    He goes on to warn that “there is God’s justice in action in what has gone on here”.

    “I believe there is God’s justice in action in what is going on here. We haven’t seen the end of it. The ultimate conclusion is like I say, we look at Bible prophecy, we are going towards a one world bank and a one world monetary system. And if you believe the word of God and you read Revelations…you will see clearly what is being spelt out. We are in the end times.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24750170-601,00.html

  4. [ShowsOn at 664, my understanding is that the courts can and do refer to Hansard as an aid in interpreting the intent and meaning of legislation if there are doubts in that regard. The relevant minister’s comments and explanation at the time the Bill is presented in Parliament may well be relevant and of assistance to the Court.]
    Well that is stupid, what happens if the minister said something that was blatantly wrong? It should be the legislation that counts, that’s what the parliament actually votes on, not what the minister says. Plus, Carr isn’t even the Minister for Education anyway, he only represents Gillard in the Senate.

    You left ouf the funniest part:
    [Liberal frontbencher Chris Pyne said the behaviour was “low rent” and Tony Abbott said it was “tacky”. ]
    Yes Tony Abbot, the guy who threatened to punch Cheryl Kernot behind the speaker’s chair in the House of Representatives, and who was the first cabinet minister for 40 odd years to be temporarily suspended from the chamber has decided to chip in his 2 cents worth about the behavior of another member.

  5. We have to say ‘What would Jesus do?’,” he says.

    If this clowns actions are any guide, He’ll be taking happy snaps at the “end of times”

    I agree with Hockey – who said the age of miracles was over 😉 – the sooner the ALP cuts Bidgood loose the better.

  6. Bibgood belongs in the Liberal Party!

    He’d be right at home there with tacky and low rent.

    ShowOn, don’t shoot the messenger. It’s what happens.

  7. Anyone know of any moves to enlarge parliament?

    What about a referendum on basing the distribution of seats between states on enrolment not population?

    Does anyone know which member(s) of the HoR support PR for the HoR?

  8. You can’t enlarge the House without enlarging the Senate at the same time.

    And doing this will probably be opposed by the major parties as it would allow greater opportunities for minor parties to get elected…

  9. OK, Bidgood is a loony tune. But so is Fielding! And what about Abbott? Heavens above, when supposedly intelligent people start talking about the bible — it’s a worry!

  12. I said enlarge Parliament not enlarge the HoR.

    he HoR can and has been expanded (and contracted) without expanding (or contracting) the Senate if that expansion (or contraction) is due to interstate fluctuations of population changing the number of states that have are above/below half a quota above the the number of whole quotas that they are entitled to or if it is to do with the territory seats.

  13. [ShowOn, don’t shoot the messenger. It’s what happens.]
    Well I read an article last year sometime that most judges are even dubious about the merit of explanatory memoranda when interpreting legislation. If many judges consider those irrelevant, I can’t see how a few remarks in the Senate could be of greater import.

  14. Fielding and Abbott are moderates compared to Bidgood. The judgement he exercised in photoing a man who could soon self-immolate and then sell the pictures to Murdoch is diabolical. And his fundamentalist millenarian views make him completely inappropriate for Parliament. When was the last time we had a politician saying “The End is Nigh”.

  15. One wonders how Bidgood got preselection in the first place.

    That said, it’s quite probably that he was a cannon fodder candidate who got caught up in the Labor wave in Queensland last year.

    What are the odds of the Labor Party in Dawson ousting him in the preselection before the next election?

  16. [The judgement he exercised in photoing a man who could soon self-immolate and then sell the pictures to Murdoch is diabolical.]
    What was the diabolical part? The photographing, or the selling of the photograph?

    What if he gave the photograph to the federal police, would’ve that been OK, or just as bad?
    [And his fundamentalist millenarian views make him completely inappropriate for Parliament. ]
    Unfortunately about 1/3 of the members of our federal and state parliaments hold the same or similar views.

  22. [When I grow up – I wanna be Antony Green]

    Spam Box – so do we all. 😀

    Except the Opposition, who are mostly the dark side of Peter Pan.

  23. [I’d say the Nationals are looking forward to winning Dawson back just as the Liberals are looking forward to taking back Robertson.]
    Even you have to admit the parliament is better with Dee-Ann Kelly gone.

  25. [That’s because we all know it occurs Oz…]
    The biggest problem in unis is bias against BOTH the Left and Right by post-modernists in the Humanities who see both sides as the same.

    It isn’t Left-wing bias that is the problem, it is No-wing bias that is the issue.

  26. Well yes i agree but maybe they can recruit that Hajnal Ban to run for the Nats in Dawson…i would say she would be a marked improvement on Kelly and Bidgood.

  27. [What was the diabolical part? The photographing, or the selling of the photograph?]

    Both. Anyone who’s first instinct when they see someone about to self-immolate is to take photos is beneath contempt. And then to publicise the man’s misery is just despicable. I’ve treated quite a few self-immolators. It’s not nice at all.

    [Unfortunately about 1/3 of the members of our federal and state parliaments hold the same or similar views.]

    Name a single one who says the world is about to end and that the GFC is “God’s justice in action”.

  28. There is NO issue of bias in any universities.

    Do lecturers and tutors have their own perspectives on the world? Obviously. Do those perspectives sometimes become more noticeable at certain points intime? Yes, they do.

    But that’s not a problem! University students aren’t idiots who swallow everything they hear without analysing it. That’s the point of university. To understand how to think critically and analyse. There a broad range of opinions in universities and the fact that they’re sometimes expressed and sometimes contrary to those of students is a good thing.

  29. Oh dear, that soon? The poor guy has not even taken the office as yet.

    [Obama’s Windfall Taxes Shift: First Broken Promise? – The Obama team’s decision to drop the idea of forcing oil and natural gas companies to pay a tax on their windfall profits has caused a firestorm among liberals and small business coalitions.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/03/the-debate-over-obamas-fi_n_148225.html

    Btw; how come the Govt has not made a big song and dance over the good news on the trade surplus, weird.

    [Record trade surplus may save economy – Australia has posted a record trade surplus of nearly $3 billion, giving rise to hopes that surging exports will keep the economy out of recession.]

    http://business.smh.com.au/business/record-trade-surplus-may-save-economy-20081204-6r5a.html

  31. Look forward to the new boundaries for Kalgoorlie. Hope it’s still in reach.
    Talking of hopeless MHRs, Liberal Barry Haase takes the cake. Hasn’t had an original idea of national/any significance in ten years. That’s more than a million dollars of taxpayers/voters’ money wasted. Not to mention his notorious printing and mail expenses. I miss the strange political landscape called WA. Well, sometimes.

  32. [But that’s not a problem! University students aren’t idiots who swallow everything they hear without analysing it.]
    The sad thing is that some of them – especially first year students – do take the lecturer’s word on everything, because that is generally what they were taught to do at high school! Part of tutoring first years is trying to unwind that reliance on arguments from authority. But some university faculties just make it worse. They had down things as if it is obvious dogma, then produce students that regurgitate the same opinions in essays without first thinking critically about issues.

    This is particularly an issue in some sections of the Humanities where adherence to certain theories is considered a pre-requisite for ideological and political purity.
    [That’s the point of university. To understand how to think critically and analyse. ]
    I completely agree with you! But when students are having certain orthodoxies rammed down their throats without being exposed to alternate views, then they don’t learn how to critically analyse what they are being told.

    I am not suggesting this is a universal problem. Some faculties don’t have this issue because they are inherently taught dialectically. The lecturers and tutors will demonstrate two (or more) opposing theories by different people to explain the same phenomena. Then students will be asked to learn and explain the advantages and disadvantages of each theory. Then they will have to pick one and explain why they think that is the best one. THAT is critical thinking in practice.

    Unfortunately the Humanities doesn’t have the same history of teaching dialectically. Instead certain theories become considered orthodox, and almost unchallengeable. Adherence to various forms of psychoanalytically infused Marxism is the most common.

    Such theories are the only ones presented in lectures and tutorials, or even worse, are simply assumed to be self evident facts, rather than challengable conjectures! Within such an environment such ideas can only be challenged by students who do a heap of their own research! They shouldn’t have to do this. They should be presented with competing theories at every turn, then asked to reflect on what they think is better, and asked to explain why.

    I say this as someone who has been taught about globalisation in both politics classes and media studies classes. In the politics classes I had to reflect on how globalisation has both positives and negatives, benefits and defficiences that have reshaped Australia and other countries in BOTH positive and negative ways.

    When taught about globalisation in media studies I was essentially encouraged to hate America, because, apparently America uses globalisation to oppress the rest of the world! The fact over the last decade about 200 million fewer people in China are now living in extreme poverty – in part thanks to increased trade – was never mentioned. The fact Australians enjoy high living standards compared to most people in other countries, because – in part – Australia spent the 1980s economically, culturally, and politically integrating itself with other countries was not mentioned. The fact if Australia wanted to (somehow) deglobalise itself Australians would have to pay double or triple for consumer electronics that we generally love was not considered.

    How does any of that encourage critical thinking?

  34. [Unfortunately the Humanities doesn’t have the same history of teaching dialectically. Instead certain theories become considered orthodox, and almost unchallengeable. Adherence to various forms of psychoanalytically infused Marxism is the most common.]

    I have to disagree with you there. Perhaps that was your experience but it certainly wasn’t mine. I’m not suggesting that it doesn’t necessarily occur, just that it doesn’t in all the Humanities like you’re suggesting.

    An example – In one particular course about International Relations and various political/sociological theories we were taught about a number of them. Emphasis was put on a few as they were the dominant theories in the particular field but a lot of others were canvassed. No lecturers or tutors attempted to ram particular theories down our throats and when the tutor did finally reveal what theory they subscribed too, at the end of the semester, none of us could have guessed it.

    However, when the tutor did say something that some in the class disagreed with they were quick to point it out. This was in first year, so also on that point I wouldn’t lump together dumb first years.

    Now you can say there are some who will swallow everything and some faculties are engaged in ideological battles (though they wouldn’t call them that), particularly noticeable regarding post-modernism. But expecting those things not to exist, or to not be an issue, is to expect that teachers are robots with no life experiences of their own that have shaped how they view the world.

  35. The Finnigans @ 29 –

    I didn’t expect much from Obama, but so far he he’s failed to meet even those low expectations, especially on foreign policy and defence. Seems to me that the “Change We Need” is mainly a wholesale return to the Clinton era, mostly the worst bits, with a smidgen of Bushism.

    Employing Madeline Albright who believes the pitiful deaths of perhaps 500,000 Iraqi infants was a “price worth paying” as his ‘social’ secretary and Hillary ‘Bomb, bomb, Iran’ Clinton as Sec. of State aren’t the only disappointing appointments, just the worst.

    That said, he’s probably still marginally ahead of what I’d anticipated from Clinton.

  36. [I have to disagree with you there. Perhaps that was your experience but it certainly wasn’t mine. I’m not suggesting that it doesn’t necessarily occur, just that it doesn’t in all the Humanities like you’re suggesting.]
    Of course, I noted it wasn’t universal. But adherence to ideological dogmas instead of argumentation tends to proliferate in faculties that don’t have a history of dialectical inquiry. That is my experience as both a student and a tutor.
    [But expecting those things not to exist, or to not be an issue, is to expect that teachers are robots with no life experiences of their own that have shaped how they view the world.]
    Sure, so we agree. Those faculties or departments who are stuck in ideological battles are biased, because they – by definition – allow ideology to get in the way of teaching in a way that promotes critical thought.

    I don’t want robots. I just want teachers that can back up their claims with evidence and coherent arguments, instead of saying things because they supposedly make them ideological pure.

    Ultimately I hope that Gillard extends her school grading system to universities, so those with faculties full of actual teachers – instead of ideologues – end up with more government funding. The faculties full of ideologues should just be left to wither on the vine for all I care, they don’t actually teach students anything anyway.

  37. I think there are more pressing problems with university staff then what I see as a minority of “ideologues” that should be sorted out first, but after that, I agree with you.

  38. I attended Question Time with an international visitor today. It was not an occasion to be proud of, generally speaking. Visitor was impressed with the condolence motion for Crean, and the respect shown him behind the scenes, especially from Hockey, Ruddock who also spoke, Truss and another I didnt recognise. She was appalled at the behaviour during QT proper, especially when Swan and Gillard attempted to answer a question. It was obviously the opposition tactic to interrupt their answers with serial points of order and to shout loudly in an attempt to intimidate. This didn’t work, esspecially to Gilliard. The loudness of the din was astonishing, Pyne and Dutton and someone I didn’t recognise were literally bellowing like football barrackers. Wilson Tuckey looked and occasionally sounded as though he had become his own best customer, a failing of many publicans. He especially fired up when binge drinking was criticised.

    Gilliard is head and shoulders above the rest in the house. Akin to having Steve Waugh in a high school team!

    The security at the House is stultifying, and visitors are treated like trespassers with malice.

  39. [Heavens above, when supposedly intelligent people start talking about the bible — it’s a worry!]

    There’s a difference between talking about the Bible and sprouting “end of days” stuff…

  40. Talking about Dawson:

    [The son of a former Howard government minister will front court on a charge of trafficking a dangerous drug.

    Ian Kelly, 21, was allegedly trafficking ecstasy in Mackay over an 11-month period between March 2007 and February 2008.

    His mother, former frontbencher De-Anne Kelly, was the Nationals member for Dawson for eight of those 11 months.]

    http://news.theage.com.au/national/former-mps-son-to-face-drug-charge-20081204-6r8a.html

  41. I would also like to see Bidgood go, just as much as Fielding. Its not just the weird religeous views – selling the photos was indeed callous. Curious how so many of these “fundamentalist” religeous types don’t allow their beliefs to stand in the way of making a buck by means which ost reasonable people woudl find objectionable. I wonder if he’ll declare that income? Blessed are the hypocrites.

  46. [I think there are more pressing problems with university staff then what I see as a minority of “ideologues” that should be sorted out first, but after that, I agree with you.]
    I see it as an extremely pressing problem, because universities aren’t any better than the quality of the people teaching the students.

    It doesn’t matter how much extra funds you give a faculty, if it is run by people who can’t, or are unwilling to promote critical inquiry, then the quality of the graduates won’t improve.

  48. Michael Cusack, do you think security may have been more than usually stroppy, due to the bloke jumping to the floor of the House earlier in the week and the incident involving the person dousing himself in petrol?
    Must say, the behaviour of some of Her Maj.’s Loyal Opposition sounds less than parliamentary, but am pleased to have confirmed that JG just keeps shafting them no matter what they throw at her.
    And gotta say, I did say the gov’t. wouldn’t cave on the Private Schools Funding Bill and very chuffed I was right. It’s getting so that you can read where they’ll shift ground, and where they’ll dig their heels in, IMHO.

  49. Ta, ShowsOn. Hmm, know that electorate somewhat and can understand why he was preselected and elected. I think it is a problem referred to by Barak Obama, in relation to a group of people, who, when anxious, and they generally are, will cling to religion (any sort will do, but the one promising most certainty they come across first, they’ll grab onto with a deathly grip) and guns.

  50. Apparently Hefferman is a “family friend”.

    [Liberal Senator Bill Heffernan has provided a character reference for a fake Qantas engineer who has been described in court as a pathological liar.

    Timothy McCormack, 27, admitted forging qualifications to pose as a Qantas engineer in 2006. ]

    [But the court has also heard that Senator Heffernan, a family friend, has thrown his support behind Mr McCormack, writing him a character reference that has been tendered in court.]

    Funny how the Libs seem to have different standards for their members to what they expect of Labor.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/04/2437985.htm

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