Super size me

I guess we’re not getting a Morgan poll tomorrow, so a stand-alone post is required to note recent developments. To wit:

• Antony Green has crunched the numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest state and territory population figures and concluded that yet another new seat will need to be created in Queensland next year, again at the expense of New South Wales. Queensland will thus have boomed from 26 seats to 30 in little over a decade, having earlier gained Blair in 1998, Bonner in 2004 and Flynn in 2007. New South Wales lost Gwydir in 2007.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that the finalised new federal boundaries for Western Australia will be gazetted on December 18, and maps published henceforth.

• Possum reckons “it’s time to rethink political demographics&#148, and explains why across a two-part epic here and here.

• A constitutional crisis is brewing in Canada that has some excited observers invoking the example of Australia in 1975. The election on October 14 saw Stephen Harper’s Conservative minority government re-elected, but again requiring the support of Bloc Québécois. However, Bloc Québécois has now signed an accord with the Liberal Party and leftist New Democrats due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the financial crisis. Harper reportedly plans to ask that Governor-General Michaëlle Jean prorogue the parliament so it will not sit until the budget is presented in January. This would avert a sitting on December 8 at which Harper’s government would likely be defeated on a no-confidence motion, and allow him time to pick apart the Liberal-Bloc-NDP deal. This raises the question of whether Jean ought to grant a prorogation to a Prime Minister who might not have the confidence of the House.

UPDATE (5/12/08): Jean agrees to prorogue parliament until January 26. Ben Raue at The Tally Room expresses his displeasure, and proposes reforms to the appointment of prime ministers (citing the practice in the Australian Capital Territory), the scheduling of parliament and the timing elections. I am a little more sympathetic to Jean’s decision, on account of the Liberals’ evident state of disarray – although I can buy the idea that it’s not the Governor-General’s role to make such judgements.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,278 comments on “Super size me”

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  1. [In other news, the Government’s scrapping of their idea to create a “Department of Homeland Security” is a very good idea.]

    Yep a dopey old idea left over from Beazley, that was handy for opposition, but not worth tuppence in govt.

  2. [Yep a dopey old idea left over from Beazley, that was handy for opposition, but not worth tuppence in govt.]
    What about a Coast Guard, instead of using the navy.

    Does that have merit?

  3. HSO. @ 48. Yes , definitely that played a part of it, especially within the gallery of the house. I actually overheard one security person tell another that there was a “suspect” in the opposite gallery connected to the events of the other day, and to keep a close eye on him. I cant comment on the security elsewhere, except to say that it was not user friendly to visitors, and tending towards abrasive.
    Re the Opposition, I was amazed at the din they raised, much more overpowering than comes over the TV coverage, and often drowning out the speakers. No one was warned today which raises the question of how bad it has to get when oeiole are ejected. Pyne, and to a lesser extent Tuckey were just bellowing out incomprehensible noise on a continuous basis. Others on the opposition side joined in as required by tactics.

  4. [Well, he did sell them but gave the money to charity]

    The word ‘sell’ shouldn’t even be used. He handed them over provided News would make a donation to a charity… he never touched any money.

    I agree on the storm in a teacup. Since when has MP’s taking photographs of something been a no-no? Bidgood may well be a nutjob but it seems there is a desperation to make this a lot more of an issue than it really is.

  5. [It’s getting so that you can read where they’ll shift ground, and where they’ll dig their heels in, IMHO.]

    They’re picking their fights quite well at the moment. But they’re going to fighting the Senate all the way till the next election.

    And as someone who despised the way JWH treated the senate, I say good on it.
    And as someone who agrees with PJK, I say unrepresentative swill get out of the bloody way!

  6. If anyone cares what I think, I find it in rather poor taste of Scorpio at #40 to promote the fact that De-Anne Kelly’s son is on a drugs charge. What the hell has that got to do with anything?

  7. [If anyone cares what I think, I find it in rather poor taste of Scorpio at #40 to wave around the fact that De-Anne Kelly’s son is on a drugs charge. What the hell has that got to do with anything?]

    Well if taking a photo of somebody rates a mention…

  10. [What the hell has that got to do with anything?]
    I don’t understand why the connection was made in the original article.

    After all, he is an adult, and there is no suggestion the alleged crime was aided by his mum.

  12. [What about a Coast Guard, instead of using the navy.

    Does that have merit?]

    Less sure – not really my area – my Homeland security opinion is based on views of how effective such a dept has been in the USA.

    I guess it boils down to could the navy be better served doing other things besides picking up the odd people smuggler and illegal fishing boat (in between hot romance between Nav and ET 🙂 ), or would getting a coast guard be more $$$ and less efficient.

    I think there’s merit in saying this group only do coast guard duties, and this mob can go round in submarines etc.

    But as I say, I’m only putting forth a completely ignorant opinion

  13. [Another non-story, IMHO, but at least it directly involves a sitting member of parliament.]

    Kelly was a sitting member during the period the offences allegedly occured

  14. [Kelly was a sitting member during the period the offences allegedly occured]

    Well she ain’t in now. Let it go. I don’t care about Nick Whitlam when I talk about Gough

  15. [Well she ain’t in now. Let it go. I don’t care about Nick Whitlam when I talk about Gough]

    I’m not fussed, but the question was asked

  16. Someone who had worked with Bidgod extensively rang ABS Sydney radio this morning and informed us that Bidgood not only worked for the Illawarra Mercury as a press photographer. but had run a successful photography business independently of any media association. So he has photogrphy in his blood.

    I dare say if the guy had immolated himself Bidgood would not have handed over the photos at any price.

    It was a stunt on behalf of the guy with the petrol that turned out happily in the end. It got publicity for the poor demented Russian bloke and provided $1,000 to charity.

    I really cannot see the problem.

  17. It’s just another reaosn why I would hate to be an MP (and why I have no probs with them getting a pay rise) their life and that of their families is considered everyone’s business.

    Palin and her kids
    Bracks and his son
    Hawke and his daughter

    unless it’s like Reith and his son’s phone bill, I don’t want to know

  18. [I really cannot see the problem]

    Given the relative lack of ‘scandals’ by this first term Government, it seems the bar has been lowered as a result

  20. With the end of parliament (or are they coming back for another day?) sdilly season has officially begun:
    [In the first seven months of the Rudd government, the prime minister’s overseas jaunts cost taxpayers just over $600,000, according to a register of parliamentary travel released on Thursday.
    …
    Special mention should go to Labor rising star, Bill Shorten.

    The Victorian MP was one of only a handful of politicians to have paid heed to a long-term directive to use frequent flyer points to redeem airfares where possible.

    Mr Shorten saved taxpayers the most money, taking frequent flyer flights worth more than $9,000.
    …
    Former prime minister John Howard, who lost government and his seat last year, spent $2,856 on domestic airfares.

    Mr Howard, who is reportedly getting a refresher course in driving after being ferried about for 11 and a half years as prime minister, also ran up a bill worth $48,207 for the use of a commonwealth car.]
    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=682061

    Haven’t heard Shorten referred to as a “rising star” for a while…

  21. Err, B.B, whether or not photography is in his blood , when confronted by someone who may kill themselves imminently, the appropriate response is not a photograph. That the photographer is a parliamentarian, or vice versa (reminds me of the “Who called the chef a ****” joke), who thinks that the GFC is his invisible friend’s idea of retribution and reckoning, and there’s a plot afoot in relation to global banks and stuff, that’s further proof of “the end of days”, is frankly just weird.

  23. [when confronted by someone who may kill themselves imminently]

    Was the person not being restrained by people? If 50 people are standing near someone who passes out and falls over, do they all have to drop everything and help the person up? Come on…

  24. William @ 56′

    No offense meant but just pointing out that some were commenting on Bidgood’s error of judgment and yet there are circumstances where it is unwise to throw stones because no one is immune from damage to their reputation from either their own actions or those of people close to them.

    The exact words I said;

    [Talking about Dawson:]

    If that is enough to receive censure from you, then I think I have sadly misjudged you.

    If you feel that my contributions to this blog are inappropriate, then maybe I should refrain from any posting and just occasionally visit to see what others feel about the subjects that you put up for comment.

  25. Grog @ 79. The shrink who works with me, gets pay TV from India, which reported some remarkable things about the planning and preparation for the Mumbai attack. If such reporting is to be believed, both were very professionally done and very sophisticated, suggesting lead times of at least 18 months to instigate such an attack. Seven of the attackers were U.K. born, disaffected Pakistani youth.

  26. There is currently “17” news items on De-Anne Kelly’s son on Google News!

    I don’t think it is now, somehow an issue, that will not be a talking point in some circles or other.

  28. Dario, I don’t know if the person was being restrained. I’ve not heard or seen anything to inform me on that score. The point I’m making is that if someone is genuinely, in extremis, that taking a photograph is hardly likely to be helpful, and is, in my view, paparazzi like. Common sense could prevail, if he had any. Someone fainting with 50 folk about is hardly a comparison.

  29. [suggesting lead times of at least 18 months to instigate such an attack]

    I’m guessing it won’t stop the right wing media from carrying on with the line that it was done to deliberately ‘test’ Obama

  31. [taking a photograph is hardly likely to be helpful, and is, in my view, paparazzi like]

    Taking a photograph of someone dousing themselves in petrol is paparazzi like??? Wtf? The paparazzi PURSUE their subjects specifically for a photo. Please don’t even try to compare that to this.

  32. That’s just the point. I do care. It has “never” been my intention to belittle other posters or test your tolerance on the line of comments I contribute.

    I have not been very well for the past couple of years similar to a number of other posters here and have gained a lot of enjoyment from contributing to discussion and putting forward issues that other have missed.

    Again, I do care how you take my contribution and if I have caused offence, for that I opologise as none was ever intended.

  37. I think the Bidgood drama was an overreaction by Rudd, probably based on minimal information. Any photos I have seen appear to have been taken when police were dealing with the issue or subsequently. More disturbing were his comments about the financial crisis being the wrath of god. The logical(?) from this line of thinking is that politicians shouldn’t do anything because everything is the will of god. Why bohter seeking election then?

  40. I think comments by Bidgood and the MP who complained about the food at Parliament House and the Member for Robertson have simply shown us that when a Government wins a big victory they are bound to bring in some people who will do the wrong thing…I am sure after the 1996 landslide there were Coalition MPs who made just as many errors as these MPs and in all fairness their actions will have consequences…most likely that will happen in 2010.

  44. Yes Glen, wasn’t it 3 of his own ministers whom Howard sacked in his first year. One would have thought that such people would have known better than first timers.

  46. Well it’s time at least Howard did sack Ministers who were doing the wrong thing or underperforming…if only Rudd have the gumption to sack Swan…

  48. [Immediately after Mr Murphy had spoken, the National Party MP for Riverina – Kay Hull – added her own complaint, describing the “quality, presentation and availability of food” as inadequate.

    Mr Hockey approached Ms Hull in the chamber to reprimand her, but witnesses said Ms Hull told him to “f— off”.]

    [Yesterday, Mr Murphy received a reprimand at the direction of Mr Albanese]

    I bet Hockey didn’t have the intestinal fortitude to attempt to reprimand Ms Hull.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/annabel-crabb/stroganoff-affair-mp-says-sorry/2008/09/18/1221330977822.html

  50. In September 2006, some idiot wrote the following and signed my name:

    Victoria’s last three quotas have been 36.76 (1999), 36.65 (2003) and now 36.54 (2005). That 37th seat is a goner.

    Whoops. Obviously the state has turned things around. Antony Green puts Victoria 2009 determination at 36.66.

    That leaves open the problem that Victoria may have a redistribution triggered under the seven year rule in early 2010 that would be unlikely to be completed in time for an election later that year.

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