Super size me

I guess we’re not getting a Morgan poll tomorrow, so a stand-alone post is required to note recent developments. To wit:

• Antony Green has crunched the numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest state and territory population figures and concluded that yet another new seat will need to be created in Queensland next year, again at the expense of New South Wales. Queensland will thus have boomed from 26 seats to 30 in little over a decade, having earlier gained Blair in 1998, Bonner in 2004 and Flynn in 2007. New South Wales lost Gwydir in 2007.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that the finalised new federal boundaries for Western Australia will be gazetted on December 18, and maps published henceforth.

• Possum reckons “it’s time to rethink political demographics&#148, and explains why across a two-part epic here and here.

• A constitutional crisis is brewing in Canada that has some excited observers invoking the example of Australia in 1975. The election on October 14 saw Stephen Harper’s Conservative minority government re-elected, but again requiring the support of Bloc Québécois. However, Bloc Québécois has now signed an accord with the Liberal Party and leftist New Democrats due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the financial crisis. Harper reportedly plans to ask that Governor-General Michaëlle Jean prorogue the parliament so it will not sit until the budget is presented in January. This would avert a sitting on December 8 at which Harper’s government would likely be defeated on a no-confidence motion, and allow him time to pick apart the Liberal-Bloc-NDP deal. This raises the question of whether Jean ought to grant a prorogation to a Prime Minister who might not have the confidence of the House.

UPDATE (5/12/08): Jean agrees to prorogue parliament until January 26. Ben Raue at The Tally Room expresses his displeasure, and proposes reforms to the appointment of prime ministers (citing the practice in the Australian Capital Territory), the scheduling of parliament and the timing elections. I am a little more sympathetic to Jean’s decision, on account of the Liberals’ evident state of disarray – although I can buy the idea that it’s not the Governor-General’s role to make such judgements.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,278 comments on “Super size me”

Comments Page 21 of 26
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  1. I’m guessing the prognosis for Australia’s auto industry is just as bad.

    [Nobel economics prize winner Paul Krugman said Sunday that the beleaguered U.S. auto industry will likely disappear.

    “It will do so because of the geographical forces that me and my colleagues have discussed,” the Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist told reporters in Stockholm. “It is no longer sustained by the current economy.”]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/07/krugman-us-auto-industry_n_149082.html

  3. Finns

    There wouldn’t be any point telling them that. They’d never believe you. Talking about that, you gave me a bum steer with that Winchester book. It’s not called “The Man who Loved China” in Oz. It’s “Bomb, Book and Compass”.

  4. Re 1002, 1003;

    [
    There wouldn’t be any point telling them that. They’d never believe you.
    ]

    Agreed. The self centered nature of most, not all, Americans is shocking. I should know, I grew up with it. A prime example (and certainly not the only one) of this is the refusal over the years to convert to the metric system. “Our way is best” …. “others need to get on board” …. “we’re the best country why should we switch?” …. etc. ad nasuem ….. Not all Americans are like this but the majority are which is why things won’t change any time soon.

    This cultural divide cuts across political barriers too.

  5. Diogenes, I’ve just stumbled across this in the current BMJ:

    Diogenes syndrome, otherwise known as senile self neglect syndrome, is used to describe an older adult living in squalor but with no sign of mental or cognitive impairment sufficient to explain the self neglect. Some commentators have written that the squalor and hoarding are just signs of obsessive-compulsive disorder, dementia, or other mental disorder, but most workers in older adult psychiatry will have seen plenty of cases with no explanatory psychiatric disorder.

    Something to look ‘forward’ to in our dotages 🙁

  6. [who is going to tell the USA people that she is no longer the greatest country in the World?]

    GDP (million USD, International Monetary Fund 2007, )
    United States 13,807,550
    Japan 4,381,576
    Germany 3,320,913
    China 3,280,224
    United Kingdom 2,804,437

    Received Foreign direct investment (million USD, UNCTAD 2007)
    United States 2,093,049
    United Kingdom 1,347,688
    Hong Kong 1,184,471
    France 1,026,081
    Belgium 748,110

    Exports (million USD, CIA 2007)
    Germany 1,354,000 2007 est.
    China 1,220,000 2007 est.
    United States 1,148,000 2007 est.
    Japan 678,100 2007 est.
    France 546,000 2007 est.

    Number of immigrants (CIA 2007)
    United States 38,355,000
    Russia 12,080,000
    Germany 10,144,000
    Ukraine 6,833,000
    France 6,471,000

    Military spending (million USD, CIA 2007)
    United States 711,000
    France 61,571
    United Kingdom 61,280
    China 61,036
    Russia 50,000

    Nobel prizes
    United States 309
    United Kingdon 114
    Germany 101
    France 57
    Sweden 28

    Top 10 universities (Times of London)
    1. Harvard University
    2. Stanford University
    3. Yale University
    4. California Institute of Technology
    5. University of California at Berkeley
    6. University of Cambridge
    7. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    8. Oxford University
    9. University of California at San Francisco
    10. Columbia University

  9. MayoFeral

    I keep my barrell very clean. Imagine how much hoarding those pensioners with Diogenes syndrome will be able to do with $1000.

    Adam

    So the EU is now ahead of the US.

  13. The EU can’t agree on what to have for breakfast. It utterly failed to deal with crises in Bosnia and Kosovo on its own doorstep. It can’t get its own constitution approved. It has no head of state, a powerless legislature and no armed forces under central control. Pfft.

  14. Military spending (million USD, CIA 2007)
    United States 711,000
    France 61,571
    United Kingdom 61,280
    China 61,036
    Russia 50,000

    Isn’t it interesting that the more Americans spend on their military, the less secure they feel.

  17. Oz

    I think Adam is equating powerful with greatness. And the US is still the most powerful country by a long shot.

    Finns

    Whats’ the story with China’s domestic auto industry? Is it going to follow Korea? You’d need an awfully big country to make enough cars for the US if their industry dies as Krugman has predicted.

  18. Obviously it depends on how we define “great”. Unless it is defined by some combination of size, wealth, power, and being a force for progress in the world, it just becomes a mushy synonym for “countries we feel warm towards,” in which the discussion becomes pointless. If I had more time for research, I could undoubtedly show that the US spends more on higher education, medical research, foreign aid, disaster relief, religious endowments, philanthropic trusts, art galleries, symphony orchestras, etc etc, than any other country. Italy! What has Italy given the world in the last century? Fascism and the mafia.

  20. If the European Defence Community had got up in the 50`s then Europe would have a more coordinated defence forces. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Defence_Community)

    What the EU needs is a parliamentary structure like the current German one, where there is a directly elected lower house (the current European Parliament) which would elect a government from it self and an upper house of members chosen by the governments of the member states with one member per 5 million people with a minimum of one or two.

  22. Sounds interesting. Unfortunately, its for National Journal subscribers only
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/ad_20081206_1783.php:

    [ What’s Behind Brennan’s Withdrawal?
    Some former spies say left-leaning bloggers and columnists drove John Brennan out of consideration for CIA director.

    Did liberal bloggers torpedo John Brennan’s chances of becoming CIA director? ]

    Perhaps they did, but only because Brennan, at best, did nothing to stop the CIA engaging in criminal behaviour, and at worst, may have actively encouraged it.

  23. There is a trend to use the word “influential” instead of great, best etc. It’s not as perjorative and is probable more useful. The US is the most influental country today. But Italy would be the most influential throughout history.

    Adam

    The Cosa Nostra started in the 1850’s in the lemon groves of Sicily. And it’s a great export. It’s everywhere now!

  24. Tom, if ifs and ands were pots and pans, we’d have no need of tinkers. The fact is that the people of the EU countries don’t want a united European state, which is why they vote against it every chance they get. Euro-federalist sentiment is much lower than it was 20 years ago. The EU is a free-trade zone, and a very successful one, but no more than that.

  25. Adam, great power and conquest mean nothing without contribution…because the USA has contributed to the world’s peace and security (WW1/2) and because it is a leader in research and development they do deserve their place in the sun.

  30. The EU`s popularity did increase after they took on the phone companies over inter-member-state call and text prices.

  32. A-span has just been launcned in Australia. It begins in the 20th Jan. What a great Christmas present for we political junkies.

  36. 1006,

    You have only further emphasized the point. Americans need to engage with the world and get off of their high horse. Doesn’t matter how many stats Americans try to hide behind, they are part of an interconnected world and as such, they need to be humble and recognize places/people beyond their own borders. You would be surprised how many people in the US (going back to my #1004 examples of self centeredness) don’t know basics like where is Mexico or where is Cuba.

  37. How long can the US, Australia and NATO put up with this type of crap in Pakistan?

    [Pakistani militants attacked a parked convoy of trucks carrying military vehicles for Western forces in Afghanistan near Peshawar early on Sunday, destroying 96 trucks, police said.

    Security guards said they were overpowered by more than 200 militants who attacked two terminals on the ring road round the northwestern city of Peshawar, where the trucks carrying Humvees and other military vehicles were parked.

    “It happened at around 2.30 a.m. They fired rockets, hurled hand grenades and then set ablaze 96 trucks,” senior police officer Azeem Khan told Reuters.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4B60AY20081207?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

  38. Re 1032,

    [
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, December 8, 2008 at 11:46 am | Permalink
    A-span has just been launched in Australia. It begins in the 20th Jan. What a great Christmas present for we political junkies.
    ]

    What he said 😀 ……..

  39. So where were the geographical boundaries of Italy when it was under Austrian, French, Spanish, Norman, Angevin, Byzantine, Saracen, Hohenstauffen, Gothic, Lombardic, Greek, Carthaginian or Etruscan rule? Italy was a “country of the mind” until Napoleon’s time. As late as WWI, Venetians and Sicialians couldn’t understand each other’s language. Neapolitans still use “Italian” as a term of abuse.

  42. George Bush is not the only reason people hate the USA. The USA has been negatively interfering in South America for over a century. They have also been negatively interfering in large parts of the world since WWII.

  43. To say the only reason people hate America is Bush is just niave, but by the same token he hasnt made things much better.

    Juliem and others before you predict the downfall of the USA, just think about having Communist China or Russia leading world affairs…

  44. Adam @ 1006
    The only problem i have with those figures is the date. But it is still a very interesting point of context. I would expect substantial change over the next two years or so though.

  45. We are not seeing and will not see “the downfall of the US”, much as the anti-American fringe (so well-represented here) may desire it. All we are seeing is what the Economist calls “the rise of the others.” A multipolar world in economic and political terms was always the norm until WW2. The bipolar and now unipolar world that has existed since 1945 has been an anomaly of history which is now being reversed as China and India rise to great power status, maybe accompanied by the EU, Japan and Russia if they get themselves sorted out. But of course China and India are only achieving that status by EMULATING the US model of economic development. And the US remains vastly superior to any other power in both economic and military terms, as well as in “soft power” terms such as language, technology and culture.

  48. [A-span has just been launcned in Australia. It begins in the 20th Jan. What a great Christmas present for we political junkies.]
    Is it going to be a Freeview digital TV station?

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