Newspoll: 55-45

Perhaps to mark the first anniversary of the Rudd government, The Australian has come good a day early with the latest Newspoll. It finds Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45, from primary votes of 42 per cent for Labor (down two) and 38 per cent for the Coalition (steady). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings are his best since early May: his approval is up two points to 67 per cent, while his disapproval is down one point to 20 per cent. Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister is up two points to 42 per cent. However, 56 per cent of respondents said they would be “concerned” if the budget went into deficit.

UPDATE: Graphic here.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week. Also included are leadership approval and preferred prime minister ratings and, interestingly, retrospective evaluation of John Howard, whose prime ministership is rated above average by 47 per cent of respondents and below average by 24 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

419 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  2. [Anyone – why is the unlimited guarantee bad for the mortgage market?]

    It has been alleged that it caused investors in the mortgage market to all pull out and move to safer investments, resulting in the mortgage funds freezing. Reality of course has shown that investors were already pulling out of such investments because arse was already falling out of it, and that they had begun freezing well before the guarantee came in.

  3. Dario @ 98,

    They went into the PC Address with blank notebooks and walked out with them still blank.

    In answer to most questions he either said, “all in the fullness of time” or, “as per my previous answer”.

    All in all a wasted hour for the journo’s.

  5. This was in Crikey today – I don’t know how to get it over properly so just cut and pasted it – but it says a lot about Wayne Swan.

    “Michelle Healy writes: I worked for Wayne Swan when he was ALP State Secretary. I recall that there were one or two staffers who were slightly wary of him, but that was only because they were afraid he may actually ask them to do some work. For those who were bone lazy and apathetic, I guess he must have seemed a little intimidating.

    In any case, I had never known him to be rude to any of the staff at Head Office, even though it could be uncomfortable to be at the end of his withering stare. For my part, he was a great boss – completely professional and dedicated – and was very understanding (and admirably kept his cool) when, despite my good intentions, I made one or two accidental stuff ups during the campaign.”

  6. Thanks Dario – that was what I thought. Friends were pulling their money out of investment trusts a few months before the Bank guarantee was given so I couldn’t understand Turnbull blaming Rudd for it.

    If Turnbull didn’t answer questions then it could mean he hasn’t got a clue. As BB says, he just chucks a lot of stuff around and hopes something, anything, will stick and be right.

    Journos will be mad if it was a wasted hour or so – they probably thought they had an easy story all lined up for tomorrow.

  8. [Journos will be mad if it was a wasted hour or so – they probably thought they had an easy story all lined up for tomorrow.]

    I think they will have to do what they have often done lately.

    Just make it up!

  10. BH
    The funniest part is that despite his grandstanding on the subject – it was confirmed that Turnbull had himself withdrawn his own funds from the investment trusts.
    I’ve given up measuring the static to noise ratio – there are more interesting signals to monitor.

    Maybe we need to start a version of SETI to undertake the task of listening for coherent policy from the Liberal party?

    I’m afraid I might blink and miss it.

  11. If you actually watched the address Dario, Turbull did praise Rudd for some good decisions…what is he suppose to say that after a year Rudd did nothing wrong?? Is that Labor’s meaning of bipartisanship lol!

    Turnbull refused to answer 2 questions based on whether he supported the principle of individual contracts and he didnt answer them…now you can understand how testy this issue is for us and how Labor would love a free kick…Turnbull didnt give Gillard a free kick and yes it looked bad him not answering them but for godsake Rudd barely answers anything in QT so big whoop!

    Turnbull’s speech 8/10 for me

  12. The Opposition doesn’t like the Government outlining its achievements since taking office last year.

    Probably because it shows up them for their lack of anything substantial and beneficial over the previous three years.

    [The Federal Opposition has accused the Government of wasting taxpayers’ money on a document outlining its achievements during its first year in office.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/24/2428269.htm?section=justin

  13. Having ranted here about the whole “Trig thing”… I should acknowledge that JG has sorted it out to my satisfaction(like it matters but anyway)

    Thanks for the retraction JG … is all good, on my end

    to all my friends!!

  15. Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week. Also included are leadership approval and preferred prime minister ratings and, interestingly, retrospective evaluation of John Howard, whose prime ministership is rated above average by 47 per cent of respondents and below average by 24 per cent.

  16. [The Opposition doesn’t like the Government outlining its achievements since taking office last year.

    Probably because it shows up them for their lack of anything substantial and beneficial over the previous three years.

    The Federal Opposition has accused the Government of wasting taxpayers’ money on a document outlining its achievements during its first year in office. ]

    This from the mob that spent how may millions on advertising?

  17. Scorpio, every now and then a comment goes into moderation for no reason that I can see. Yours was one of them.

    The Daily Telegraph “Random Ministerial Scandal Generator” remains me of this David Blunkett policy maker, referring to the former British Home Secretary. Those unfamiliar with Blunkett can mentally substitute him with their home-grown subject of choice (Phillip Ruddock, perhaps).

  18. Maywald is going to be up against the head of the Murray Irrigators in Chaffey next election. Last election her primary vote was 53% and Labor got 10%. Would she have a better chance if Labor don’t run against her and campaign for her (she’s still a National although she is in Rann’s Cabinet) ❓

    [RIVERLAND grape and citrus grower Tim Whetstone will challenge Water Security Minister Karlene Maywald for her key seat of Chaffey.

    Mr Whetstone, who is chairman of the SA Murray Irrigators Association, beat two other candidates in a ballot in Berri.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24696783-2682,00.html

  23. My, my, just look at that primary vote for the LP on Essential Research. They’re clearly doing something right. Sniggle. Going to be interesting to see Possum’s update of the Pollytrack, though William’s tracking of who is better on the hot topics, I still find absolutely fascinating in relation to how the LP lost the plot. Got to be a few Ph.D.s in an exploration of that topic. As opposed to “The Howard Years” – wish there was a symbol on the keyboard for irony.

  24. [Goes to show that you can fool most of the people some of the time.]

    Not most, just all Liberal voters a tiny percentage of everyone else.

  25. William re Maywald

    [I suspect she’d have a better chance if Labor campaigned against her.]

    You are a political genius! But how do you campaign against one of your own ministers? You can’t criticise her policies, judgment or character. I suppose you could say the people of Chaffey would be better off with a Labor member than her but that’s pretty hollow.

    The Libs choosing a prominent irrigator might work in Chaffey to their advantage but I think it will go down very poorly in metropolitan Adelaide where the election will be won.

  26. Onimod @110:

    [Maybe we need to start a version of SETI to undertake the task of listening for coherent policy from the Liberal party?]

    That really tickled my fancy. It’s the funniest idea I’ve read in a long time…

    You can just see it: screen savers, background processing, bugs that cause your PC to crash or hang, and a prize for the first contributor who finds a Liberal Party policy in all the microwave background hum.

    You get a municipal reserve (funded, of course, with porkbarrel handouts) named after you.

    “Bushfire Bill Reserve”.

    Where do I sign up?

  27. Just a passing thought. Has anyone got any theories about why it was George M. who got to do the report on the Newspoll. Mine is that he has somewhat more credibility than just about anyone else, though Mike Steketee is O.K., and the O.O. is trying to claw back some credibility?

  28. [Has anyone got any theories about why it was George M. who got to do the report on the Newspoll]

    Maybe the Liberal hacks had all slashed their wrists and were unavailable?

  29. Bushfire Bill, you forgot the mouse pads a la promoting Workchoices, so cleverly exploited by Julia in QT. A mouse pad with a LP policy on it. What would they pay for that?

  30. Don’t forget Bludgers, the Howard Years at 8.30.

    It will be like going on one of the big rides at an amusement park. Only difference is we’ll be cringing and screaming all the way through it instead of laughing and screaming. Still, hopefully we’ll come out of it alive. Some may throw up, so I’ll have a bucket close by in case.

  31. BB

    Michelle Gratten clearly didn’t appreciate the brush off she received today from allbull when he didnt really reply to her questions at the PC (other including Laura Tinge also appeared pissed off with allbull) .

    Will watch with interest on tomorrows reports from Gratten and Tingle.

    I thought allbull today did immense harm to any prospect he might have ever had be PM.

    He can across as an astonishing arrogant and egotistical bully. The more he talked the more I believe average people would have been fundamentally repulsed.

    It was not a pretty sight and was all about how brilliant allbull is and how dumb everyone else on the planet is.

    I cheered all the way through. IT was pure congealed arrogance on display by a person too smart by half.

    How anyone would change a vote to allbull is just not believeable.

  33. Centre

    I can’t watch it, but I saw that tonight they tip the bucket on Tip about the GST. Evidently he botched the negotiations so badly with the Dems that it was dead in the water until Howie shafted him and took them over himself. There’s always a silver lining.

  36. Centre, youve basically echoed my feelings about the PC address today, Turnbull let the real persona slip out and it wasnt pretty, i thought it was hilarious, good entertainment, he primped and posed and expounded on just how good he was and belittled veryone else,he derided Rudd for not answering questions and refused to answer probing ones himself.
    Meg Lees has got me gritting my teeth on the Howard years, that dreadful woman’s pettiness singlehandedly destroyed the democrats, all we have left is that nutter Kanck and she’s retiring thank heavens.

  37. Watching “The Howard Years” highlights just how unpleasant this lot were. Especially looking at how they spoke about the Tampa issue. The more I see of Reith the more my skin crawls. Thank goodness we are rid of these bigoted, sycophantic rabble.

  38. [Just a passing thought. Has anyone got any theories about why it was George M. who got to do the report on the Newspoll]

    Don’t know, but the lack of non-fantasy land stuff was welcome.

  39. Fiz you are only getting that because the ABC has made the Howard Governments achievements to look negative and its failures awful…i have not yet seen one achievement that actually the ABC praise Howard for so no wonder you lefties enjoy watching it.

    Hawke and Howard would have favourable polling id say but Keating would be about as popular as George W Bush right now IMHO…

  40. I have no silicone ashtrays left, and I snapped my last reinforced leather belt when Reithy started on about how innocent he was about… well… everything.

    So there’s nothing to restrain me and nothing soft left that I can chuck at the screen without doing damage to my (admittedly) retro, actual glass picture tube (although it is 16:9 widescreen, so I’m only 10 years behind the technological 8-ball).

    The old silicone ashtrays used to bounce off the tube until they got too brittle and I chipped the damn thing with the last one. The leather straps, thongs really (if you must know), served me well until I noticed I was wearing out the sofa in the “straining corner” during the Budget Reply speech, when Nelson proposed his amazing 5c per litre reduction in petrol. Jeezus that was a bad night!

    I chewed on the leather straps for a while (to preserve the sofa), but had to give up when Rainmaker started going on about the bank guarantee concept, and how he was against it before he was for it and then he was against it again. I got so confused and cranky I used to scare the dogs, writhing and screaming (as I did) and occasionally foaming at the mouth sometimes when I shouted at the screen and told it to “F**k off and die, you bast**d”.

    Imagine telling a screen that! Well, I did. And that was when I realised I had a problem.

    It wasn’t really the screen’s fault. It’s only a piece of glass, doped with rare earth elements. Not really a thinking person at all. And it wasn’t really the dogs’ fault. I was just me, and it was then I realised I had to get a grip or else I’d go mad and start talking to myself in the street.

    The residents of Beecroft, NSW, 2119, will put up with a lot, but a joker talking to himself in the street crosses the line. They start crossing the street when they see “that weird guy from up the road with the two doglets” talking to himself.

    So, here I am, unable to watch The HowardYears because I’ve just about ruined the sofa and my health, and that’s before I even get to the dogs’ mental health. Plus the carton of silicone ashtrays I ordered has wasted away to nothing (cheap silicone, I suspect).

    So I have no alternative but to NOT watch The Howard Years. Otherwise Herindoors will get shitty with me for ruining the furniture, the dogs will take up permanant residence under the bed, and I haven’t seen Timmy The Cat for weeks, except at feeding time, when he dashes in, scoffs his tuna and then exits pronto for the bush where, despite the funnel webs, it seems a lot safer, what with me gesticulating at the TV and cursing lots (with the odd flecks of foam).

    It’s a little known fact that cats and dogs can rarely see what we humans can see on-screen. Something to do with frame rates and RGB color responses, I’m led to believe. It’s a cross-species “thing”. Suffice it to say that when I’m on one of my ranting raves at something political, the animals can only hear what I’m upset about, and not see it. The screen is just a blur in their eyes. It upsets them that I’m upset, and if they’re upset, then I’m upset. It’s a sort-of round-robin of upsettedness that I want to escape from.

    The thing is: I love my animals more than I love John Howard and his delusional, retro-re-writing of history.

    So youse’ll have to tell me what happened in Friendly Fran’s Flying Circus tonight, because I can’t take the risk. I can’t take the risk my animals will move out and I can’t take the risk that Herindoors will divorce me due to the damage I’ve done to the sofa (I know, sounds shallow, but she has depth in other areas).

    Ok, so at the moment, there are far too many balls up in the air for Old BB. And watching Howard might just cause the whole ping-pong bag full of them to come tumbling down.

    I hope youse all understand.

  42. [ The more I see of Reith the more my skin crawls. Thank goodness we are rid of these bigoted, sycophantic rabble.]

    Agree totally. Keith now effects such a casual cache about it all. What a low life.

    Dolly is not much better.

    The salient point emerging from “the rodent years” is how much was policy on the run, major major stuff – the GST – Timor – Pacific switch n Bait without cabinet consultation. To that add the $10 B murray darling back of the envelope summer holiday brain fart and the aboriginal intervention.

    Now if that happened under labor the stooges of the fibs would be demanding a dismisal.

    BTW meant to raise this before – at todays allbull PC session the bit about the taxation review underway by the fibs. I got to say I was amazed truffles was not asked to rule out any increase in the GST rate. This is something that would have been and WAS the reaction to labors tax review.

    WHY is that ? Were all the journos pissed today ? Did they leave their brains elsewhere ? Why were they incompetent and negligent in not raising such a basic query ?

  45. The Howard Years tonight reminded us of two major facts:

    1. Meg Lees destroyed the Democrats. Well done Meg, you can live with that for the rest of your life. At the time Meg thought she was really important because Howard was needed to negotiate with her. I’ll tell you what a complete idiot she was? Meg Lees honestly thought that the Democrats were going to be the second major political party ahead of Labor.

    2. It cost us $1 Billion to stop the boat people on the Tampa landing on our shores. Therefore Howard effectively spent $1 Billion to improve his chances of winning the 2001 election. Shame Howard Shame!

  46. [i have not yet seen one achievement that actually the ABC praise Howard]

    Could that be because he was not, in fact, a brilliant statesmen and nation builder but a lying, snivelling, double-crossing, racist, selfish and greedy d*ckhead.

  48. Strange… ‘the Howard Years’ didnt seems to mention that all the Tampa refugees bar about 10 ended up in…… Australia!

    But only after we’d blown millions incarcerating and tormenting them for 3-4 years or so.

    Like a lot of the Howard years: political success and shambolic policy disaster travelled hand in hand.

  49. Centre – It was a billion dollars – at least, rodent took out away from our hospitals, uni’s schools and pensioners.

    The pensioners who are these days acting up no good (and the shock jocks behind them) should hang their heads in shame about their silence back in the day.

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