Newspoll: 55-45

Perhaps to mark the first anniversary of the Rudd government, The Australian has come good a day early with the latest Newspoll. It finds Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45, from primary votes of 42 per cent for Labor (down two) and 38 per cent for the Coalition (steady). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings are his best since early May: his approval is up two points to 67 per cent, while his disapproval is down one point to 20 per cent. Rudd’s lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister is up two points to 42 per cent. However, 56 per cent of respondents said they would be “concerned” if the budget went into deficit.

UPDATE: Graphic here.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week. Also included are leadership approval and preferred prime minister ratings and, interestingly, retrospective evaluation of John Howard, whose prime ministership is rated above average by 47 per cent of respondents and below average by 24 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

419 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. [GB at 334, I would argue that the union campaign DID work for the Libs to some extent, maybe by bringing some of their base back.]
    How do you match up “DID” and “maybe” in the same sentence Andrew?
    How do you prove your opinion? I can prove mine, Rudd won and by a good margin after coming from a long way behind. His campaign against Workchoices beat the campaign against the unions. Simple. People must have feared Workchoices more than the unions otherwise Howard would have won.
    You want to argue degrees and I want to argue absolutes.

  2. Your ABC:

    Just been watching the Barbie Doll reading out the Sydney ABC 7pm bulletin, where she said, in that Oh-So_Cheerful “Good News” voice of hers:

    [“While the Opposition will let the bill pass through the House Of Representatives, it faces a less certain path in the Senate…”]

    Let the bill passs the House Of Reps?

    How generous of them, and how enlightening of the ABC to let us in on this bit of good news about Turnbull and his pirate crew.

    Except the government has a total majority in the House Of Reps, which is why they are, y’know, the government.

    Even in defeat, the Opps are letting the government win. How magnanimous of them and how lovely of the ABC to let us know about it.

    Tossers: the Libs and the ABC.

  3. GB @ 401

    A few of corrections needed GB.

    Rudd didn’t come from a long way behind – Labor under Beazley was ahead on 2PP for most Newspolls in 2006.

    And it wasn’t Rudd’s anti-Workchoices campaign, it was the unions’. In fact Rudd was at pains to distance himself from unions throughout the campaign.

    And I think Possum has previously demonstrated that the Coalition vote did come back in the last week or two. Mark Textor’s view is that the anti-union ads were intended to minimise losses, he didnt expect them to win the election.

  4. Juliem
    On speakers. The first issue is how well they understand parliamentary procedures and standing rules. A problem for speakers is that the House is full of legal people. Many of them are, practically speaking, useless, but all of them know how to argue the toss on rules and regulations. Jenkins did get himself into a spot of bother early on in terms of his knowledge of the rules but has got it pretty right since. There are structural issues – the Opposition hopes to use the rules to wrong foot the Government – they have very little to work with, so they will put as much pressure on the speaker as possible. If the speaker gets sick of it, he turfs a few out of the house. There is another structural problem, because some members of the opposition regard it as a badge of honour to get turfed out of the House. Sometimes oppositions will deliberately create ‘uproar’ in the House to try and draw attention to an issue that they want publicised. Another issue is that governments control who the Speaker is. It is a bit of plum posting with extra pay attached, so there is usually competition for it by people who do not rate a ministery. If the speaker serially displeases the government, he loses his job. I agree with others that Jenkins (I think his father may also have been Speaker) is generally pretty good at his job.

  5. thanks Boerwar ….. the speaker in a parliamentary system plays such a different role than the speaker in the US HOR 😉 …… going to miss QT tomorrow, we will be out at the new James Bond movie ……

  6. Juliem – Harry Jenkins is doing a good job as Speaker. The last one, as everyone is saying, was a shocker. Even Lib friends told me they thought he was awful.

    The Libs got away with mayhem against the Labor opposition and it was so awful I gave up watching so that my telly, like BB’s, wouldn’t be destroyed.

    Don’t feel guilty, Garry Bruce – I have to admit I am a pretty constant watcher now – usually find a lousey job to do while it is on (ironing, cooking, anything). It is sheer pleasure to see how this Govt. is evolving. And what else is retirement for but to do the things you couldn’t do before. Of course, my old man thinks I am a nutter but as long as he gets spoilt it’s OK.

    Remember Howard & Co telling us before the election that the Labor Ministers would be duds – well I reckon they leave the mob on the other side for dead now and I get a lot of information from their answers so I’m not sure why Turnbull thinks they don’t answer questions.

    The Howard Govt. only ever gave a 30 sec answer before it turned on Labor.

    Methinks the Opposition is very, very jealous at the moment and darn tedious to listen to.

  7. Juliem – do you think it is better having virtually a non-party system in Congress/Senate instead of Westminster system. The Speaker over there seems to have more power than here.

  8. Do you think the reason US members of Congress are more likely to cross party lines than Australian MP’s because of how Congress works or because the party system is less disciplined?

    I think the better system is one that allows for a greater variety of views to be heard without fear of retribution.

  9. We are so wedded on to our party system that it seems hard to envisage non-party votes on bills.

    Altho I’m strictly Labor I do like the free votes on big social issues like abortion, euthanasia, and the like. It seems to be the right way to look at those things especially if there are a few very dogmatic bods in influential positions in a party. They can use their bullying power which seems wrong for some issues.

    I think the media contributes to our more adversarial Parliamentary style as well – they seem to demand it.

  10. I wish our elected members would cross the floor and were more free to vote. Another positive, on top of the already mentioned, would be they would more representive of their electorate. In Victoria we have Labour bayside supporting channel deepening and country supporting the north-south pipe! Under an U.S. system I doubt that would happen. There are many flaws in their politics but this is one advantage they have over us.

  11. Kevin Rudd action dolls and a whole lot more merchandise sending up the PM available on a liberal party website. How childish can a bunch of supposedly adult people get?

  12. [How childish can a bunch of supposedly adult people get?]
    Silly question! You’re talking about a political party that took a cardboard cut out into the House of Representatives.

  13. [There is a new movement called the “Plague Deniers” who claim that the Black Plague was not caused by Yersinia Pestis and Rattus Rattus. It was caused by an epidemic viral fever, like Ebola.]

    Ebola? are you referring to Hycanith?

  14. [Kevin Rudd action dolls and a whole lot more merchandise sending up the PM available on a liberal party website.]

    Well, there was the Howard love doll,

    Just more quid quo pro, searching for the reason why Howard was voted out, focusing on any negative against Howard and copying it to use against Rudd.

    They need to look honestly at themselves and the previous government to find the reasons as to why the libs were voted out.

    It wasn’t petty little things, they will not move forward until they do.

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