Happy anniversary

I have written a piece on the Rudd government’s first-year polling record relative to that of the Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke and Howard governments, which is freely available in Crikey. Elsewhere:

• For those with ready access to academic journals, the latest edition of the Australian Journal of Politics and History features a look at the role of the Senate in the Australian political system by Stanley Bach, lately of the Congressional Research Service of the US Library of Congress, and an examination of conscience voting in the federal parliament by John Warhurst of the Australian National University. The Australian Journal of Political Science has an overview of the introduction of proportional representation to the Victorian upper house at the 2006 election, by Nick Economou of Monash University.

• The Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission has concluded there will be no state redistribution before the 2010 election, at least on the basis of “current information”. The present boundaries have been in place since the 2002 election. Hat tip to Tom the first and best. UPDATE: Further props to Tom for noting below that the determination rests on a definition of a “general election” that does not count the 2002 election, as it was conducted on the pre-reform regime when only half the Legislative Council faced election – perhaps contrary to the drafters’ intention.

• The Western Australian branch of the Australian Democrats has been deregistered after declining to challenge the electoral commissioner’s determination that it did not have 500 members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

322 comments on “Happy anniversary”

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  1. Finns

    I’m looking forward to Jan 20 2009, when all these problems will be a thing of the past because the Dream Team of Obama-Clinton will take over the US. If Bush AND Cheney resign now, Pelosi becomes President.

  2. Its a bit difficult to blame Obama when he has no constitutional power to do anything yet. He has been talking informally to both Houses of Congress since the election. Neither Bush nor Paulson has made any public statement that they would act on policies Obama would propose. Obama has moved with considerable speed to put together his future governmental team and start working on economic stimulus proposals. His nomination for SOS has to go through a vetting process (as normal) and even if everything is fine Hillary would have no access to foreign intelligence resources of the US yet. So any US blame for current events rests squarley with the current administration.

    To be fair, I don’t blame Bush for either Mumbai or the economic collapse. Instead I blame him for failing to respond adequately to both. US relations with India have soured over Bush’s term of office, as first he tried to buddy up with Musharaf in Pakistan (as General Musharaf actually launched an invasion of India!) and then was reluctant to deal with India on uranium. We all know about the economic response.

  3. Amigo FINNS

    th knowledge trees sayeth you can not hav 2 captains on one ship…….and when has th wheel and th other th navigation ….we sail into mists of inactions , allowing unchained reactions of no replys Th Law of AmigoGravity

  4. Diog, if Obi has balls he would launch a coup to topple Dubya because as amigo Ronnie correctly observes “you can not hav 2 captains on one ship”. That is exactly what we have now. Diog, you are wrong, again.

  5. Finns

    I know quite a lot about Machu Pichu and the Incas. I’ve been a little surprised that I have never heard of these “Knowledge Trees”. Imagine my concern when I exhaustively searched the Net for their existence at Machu Picchu and found nothing referring to them…

  6. Diog, why do you think the Spanish never got to Maccu Picchu? As Michael Palin, no not Sarah Palin, observed in his Full Circle series about South America, the Spanish destroyed everything about the Inkas except Maccu Picchu.

    Why, because it was protected by the “Knowledge Tree” as MP was located where God lives. Dont trust me about it, go and feel the presence yourself at MP.

  7. Finns

    I’m beginning to wonder if the “Tree of Knowledge” would be more appropriately referred to as the “Sapling of Deception”.

  8. Hey there Finns

    Please help me . . . what Article of the Constitution gives the POTUS-e the power to topple the POTUS? I’ve scoured Article II sections 1 and 4, and the 20th and 25th amendments and I can’t see it anywhere. Perhaps a 28th Amendment has been passed that they haven’t told anyone about. Maybe it was slipped through as a fine-print rider to a ballot measure on Nov 4.

    You see, it may cause some comment if Obama were to Saddamise Bush without a mechanism to do so. And then bumping off Cheney, Pelosi and the whole damn succession would also be viewed a trifle askance I think.

    So I think it’s a trifle obtuse to lay any blame at Obama’s door for situations he has absolutely no authority to deal with, no matter how much one is filled with distaste at his election. But I can’t wait for Jan 20 – it’s going to be a bright new day dawning.

    BTW, to help with your advice to me, here are the relevant bits of the Constitution.

    Ariticle II, section 1
    The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice-President chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows:
    Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
    The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.
    No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
    The President shall, at stated Times, receive for his Services, a Compensation, which shall neither be increased nor diminished during the Period for which he shall have been elected, and he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them.
    Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:
    “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

    Article II Section 4
    The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

    Amendment 20 – Presidential, Congressional Terms. Ratified

    1. The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

    2. The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January, unless they shall by law appoint a different day.

    3. If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

    4. The Congress may by law provide for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the House of Representatives may choose a President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them, and for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the Senate may choose a Vice President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them.

    5. Sections 1 and 2 shall take effect on the 15th day of October following the ratification of this article.

    6. This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission.

    Amendment 25 – Presidential Disability and Succession.

    1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

    2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

    3. Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

    4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

    Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

  9. Socrates @ 303,

    Bush can be blamed for a whole h*** of a lot. While it has been several years now, I do believe that most people apportion blame for the Spanish terrorist attacks (shortly before their elections that year) either directly or indirectly on Bush following on from the 9/11 attacks. That caused Spain to pull out quick smart from Iraq at the time and also that attack was later linked to Al-Quaeda (sp?). While it has been neither proven or shown yet that AQ is behind this one, it has all of their hallmarks (way way too well planned to have been an ad hoc type attack) and time will likely show it as such. Anything AQ and post 9/11 can be traced directly or indirectly back to Bush. He has a lot to answer for in the hereafter.

  10. Dyspnoeia
    Hypothetical question – under the US Constitution could the Speaker shoot the President and Vice President, thereby become president, and then pardon themself for the shootings? (I hope Carl Rove isn’t reading this.) Its a bit flippant I know, but I was really wondering what limitiations exist on the right of presidents to grant pardons.

  11. #313, since when “coup d’état” pays any attention to the Constitutions. Since Obi promises “change”, you cant get a bigger change than a coup d’état.

  12. juliem

    Well I wasn’t trying to defend Bush either 🙂 He has certainly made a mess of it; I just don’t think he can be blamed for starting the recent waves of islamic terrorism, as they pre-dated the Bush presidency.

    I posted a comment on a similar thread at John Quiggan’s blog that the whole “war on terror” response was misguided. It has simply given the terrorists what they want – publicity and notoriety. Hardly motivation to change their ways! There has never been any serious attempt by Bush to attack the underlying cause of the terrorism. Aussie diggers in Afghanistan have realsied the need to win hearts and minds, but it still seems to escape Dubbya. I read comments several years ago arguing that the whole notion of “terrorism” was misguided. It isn’t a form of war in any practical or legal sense. We should just treat them as a form of crime gang. Less glamorous, but realistic.

    More people die on our roads every year than have died in terrorism in Bush’s whole time in office. So why make such a huge panic about it? Answer: it plays into a fear-campaign tactic that suits conservative politics. They’ve made a mountain out of a mole-hill but it got them relected. Worked for Howard too.

  13. [Answer: it plays into a fear-campaign tactic that suits conservative politics. They’ve made a mountain out of a mole-hill but it got them relected. Worked for Howard too.]

    Correct

  14. Socrates,

    OT to India but this map shows the difference between the 2004 and 2008 elections in the US. If a county voted MORE democratic than it did in 2004, it is marked blue EVEN if McCain ended up winning it. The color shading is stark and clearly shows the current disapproval rating of GB. {click on the numbers below the map one at a time and it lays out the information displayed in different ways}

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html

    Yeah, I know you weren’t supporting Bush, Socrates 😉 ….. I think I was taking you several steps further though by saying I would lay blame on his doorstep for a whole lot more than you would …….

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